It is much better to have an idea of where you stand on an incoming
talent before he is drafted, if only the public tends to cater to
popular opinion and "fit" after he is selected. Evaluating
the incoming rookie class before the draft gives us a more stable
ground on which to base our opinions and helps us avoid some of
those "popular" pitfalls.
The goal with this piece (and the other three position-by-position
summaries) is to provide a slightly quicker but still very thorough
overview of some of the top prospects that were not covered in
my draft profiles. The hope is that this exercise will give readers
all the information that could ask for as they begin preparing
for upcoming rookie drafts.
Jalen Milroe Draft Profile
Vitals
College: Alabama
Height/Weight: 6’ 2"/217
Hands: 9 3/8’"
Age: 22 (at the time of the 2025 season opener)
Best Team Fit(s): Steelers, Giants, Browns,
Saints, Seahawks
Bottom Line
How much do we believe in the quarterback coach? How much job
security do the head coach and general manager have? These are
the questions that Milroe's next NFL team will have to ask itself.
There is not a more talented quarterback in this draft class.
He is easily the best athlete of the bunch and comes equipped
with a rocket arm. He won the Academic Heisman (William Campbell
Trophy), so his intelligence is another check mark in his favor.
The problem is that it looks like none of his offensive coordinators
or quarterbacks coaches at Alabama thought that improving Milroe's
footwork, delivery or overall mechanics was a vital part of their
job description. With a career completion percentage of 64.3,
it might seem that he is accurate enough, but that is far from
the case.
Perhaps the easiest way to describe his biggest issue in a few
words is that it was rare to see him step into a throw, which
means the arm becomes almost entirely responsible for power and
accuracy. In my experience, bad and/or inconsistent footwork or
faulty mechanics are usually the primary reasons why inaccurate
quarterbacks are the way they are. This helps to explain why so
many of his deeper throws lacked touch, which was a common theme
for him.
Making matters worse in 2024 was playing behind one of the worst
offensive lines Alabama has put on the field in over 20 years,
which exacerbated another problem of his: looking at the rush
after taking too much punishment too early.
So how did Milroe earn the second-highest film grade among quarterbacks
in this draft class?
For all of his flaws, there were plenty of instances where he
flashed high-end NFL quarterback qualities. He made numerous impressive
anticipatory and tight-window throws. He easily moved off his
primary read and threw to his second or third read. He consistently
showed poise in the face of pressure and made several jaw-dropping
throws on the run. He just did not exhibit any of those qualities
so often that an evaluator can overlook the aforementioned drawbacks.
Anthony Richardson will be mentioned as a cautionary tale for
betting on traits and athleticism over everything else at the
quarterback position. With Richardson, I expect him to take a
big leap forward in 2025, but the two cases are slightly different
either way. While he is not quite the athlete Richardson is (who
is?), Milroe is further along as a passer.
Much like what should have happened with Richardson, the team
that drafts Milroe should consider 2025 a redshirt year and start
from scratch with his mechanics. It might even take two years.
The point is that no one should be surprised if Milroe ends up
being the most feared quarterback in this draft class, but it
will only happen if his next team has the patience and long-term
vision to allow it to happen.
Tyler Shough Draft Profile
Vitals
College: Louisville
Height/Weight: 6’ 5’’/219
Hands: 9 3/4’"
Age: 25 (at the time of the 2025 season opener)
Best Team Fit(s): Steelers, Falcons, Vikings,
Cowboys, Dolphins, Browns
Bottom Line
Shough redshirted his first year in 2018 and backed up Justin
Herbert the following season at Oregon. He took over for NFL-bound
Justin Herbert in 2020 and played seven games, but his play declined
quickly following a strong start and he was subsequently benched.
In three years at Texas Tech, he broke his collarbone in 2021,
missed six games with a shoulder injury in 2022 and broke his
leg in 2023. In short, 2024 was his first and only full season
as a starter.
Depending on your point of view, Shough is either a quarterback
with an enviable amount of experience and maturity or an older
prospect with an unenviable injury history. Shough played 42 games
at three schools over seven years and will turn 26 in Week 2 of
the NFL season. He will be older than at least nine starting quarterbacks
and almost 20 rostered quarterbacks when he is drafted.
With the size and arm strength he possesses, Shough would have
probably been a better fit in the NFL 10 to 15 years ago. At his
best, he is a pure pocket passer who can shoot ducks in a barrel
when he is not pressured. He has more than enough arm strength,
although some of his deep-out throws lose steam by the time they
get to their desired target. Shough has the confidence to make
tight-window throws but is much more of a game manager than a
gunslinger in that he is more than happy to check down when necessary.
He can move defenders with his eyes and is a more than capable
passer to either side when he is forced to throw on the run. His
mechanics are quiet - contributing to the smoothest delivery of
the top five quarterback prospects - so it would not be overly
surprising if an old-school coach or general manager convinced
himself that Shough was a capable low-end starter as a rookie.
On the downside, his 4.63-timed 40 is highly deceiving, as it
would be a surprise if he ran for much more than 150 yards in
a full NFL season. His escapes from the pocket are usually futile,
as only one of his 28 actual rush attempts in 2024 (because the
14 sacks he took are counted as carries) went for more than 11
yards. He has the aforementioned injury history and is an older
prospect.
However, it may be the combination of those two things that leads
to his biggest problem: how he reacts to pressure. Likely in part
because he knows he is not much of a runner and his injury history,
Shough more or less ducked and shied away from contact during
his delivery too often when he felt heat. Per PFF, he was a 42.3
percent passer under pressure in 2024. He was only marginally
better against the blitz (57.7 percent), well behind most of the
top prospects in this draft who were in the high 60s. That kind
of performance in those situations could be glossed over more
if Shough did not have a great offensive mind calling plays or
a decent supporting cast last year, but he did have those things.
It will be hard for most evaluators to overlook the combination
of those metrics and his age, so he seems destined to be one of
those quality NFL backup types who can lead a team to a win or
two before the league solves him.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
