Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 42.5
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
For a college receiver who has yet to receive pro coaching, Wilson
is ahead of the curve when it comes to running routes - particularly
when it comes to using leverage. For example, he routinely gets
into his defender's blind spot as quickly as possible on deeper
routes and sells his routes on the short and intermediate stuff.
He also has the speed to be a dynamic weapon in the vertical passing
game AND the change-of-direction skills to create separation on
quick-hitters. In other words, he can open and do damage at all
three levels of the defense. Wilson is almost a lock to catch the
ball if he can get his hands on it down the field and/or in contested-catch
situations. Perhaps the most surprising part of Wilson's toolbox
is his ability to play "above the rim" for a shorter receiver.
While he didn't get as much of a chance to show it off in 2021,
his ability to contort his body in mid-air is special. Further adding
to his appeal is his awareness and body control when he ventures
near the sideline or at the back of the end zone. Wilson is surprisingly
good after the catch AND after contact for a receiver of his size.
(Per Pro Football Focus, he forced 19 missed tackles in 2021.)
Negatives
Most of the concerns about Wilson's pro readiness are areas he
has minimal control over, such as his 6-0 and 183-pound frame. While
he plays physically, he is far from powerful and needs more functional
strength. While adding 5-10 pounds of muscle over the next year
or two is entirely doable, there is a distinct possibility it could
take away from his speed. Speaking of his speed, Wilson is fast
but doesn't always play to his NFL Combine speed (4.36). His hands
in the short passing game (and along the sideline) will betray him
from time to time, suggesting he may not be all that comfortable
living over the middle of the field (or focusing too much on his
body position near the sideline in the latter case). The interesting
part about the former possibility is that Wilson is actually very
good after the catch AND after contact, so there is a chance his
inconsistent hands in the short passing game have been more about
him rushing the process (focus drops) than fear of hanging out too
long inside the hashes. Despite the earlier praise about his route-running,
he still could add some polish to that area in his game - particularly
his footwork - which leads to him rounding off routes on occasion
and taking too many steps to make his move.
Bottom Line
Wilson is a relatively easy evaluation when compared to most blue-chip
receiver prospects in recent years. On one hand, his route-running
is sharper than most and his route tree is more varied than many
of his predecessors. His combination of speed, shiftiness and body
control bodes well for his NFL future as well. On the other hand,
his ability to deal with physicality is what one would expect from
a wideout with a 183-pound frame. In other words, Wilson is highly
unlikely to ever become a featured X receiver and may be destined
for a career as a Z or slot, which would minimize the impact of
his lighter frame and consistently give him a free release off the
line of scrimmage. The inability to play full-time at split end
(X) is not a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination, but the
bulk of teams looking for receivers in the first round want players
who fit the "X mold" at the position. While his speed
and quickness should make him a viable Day 1 starter at Z or in
the slot, Wilson's best feature at the pro level right away may
be his ability to win in contested-catch situations. In short, he
has a high floor but a potentially moderate ceiling - at least until
he can consistently prove he can handle the physical coverage he
will see at the line of scrimmage and on his routes than he did
in college.
--- Predict
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now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
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