Most of the information we receive from beat reporters is at least
partially useful, but contrary to popular belief, just because it
is on the internet doesn't mean it is good information. Poorly researched
or poorly conceived insight will surface on a regular basis, so
it helps to have a very sharp and sensitive "B.S. detector"
during the spring and summer. In other words, it is up to us to
make sure what we hear and read checks out with what we already
know about the team and/or player.
As a result, I’m going to try to provide a respectable
opinion on how the offseason buzz from all 16 NFC teams translates
to fantasy owners after doing the same thing last week with the
AFC: Note: All ADPs are for 12-team
PPR leagues courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator as of July
1.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Perhaps it shouldn't
be a surprise that a second-year receiver drafted high in the
second round in 2018 is looking better than a 35-year-old and
three rookies. After all, he showed well in Mike McCoy's offense
- no small feat. It also doesn't hurt his cause he played in a
similar offense in
his college days at Texas A&M to the one new HC Kliff
Kingsbury plans to run. The selection of three receivers during
this spring seemed to suggest Kirk may not be long for Arizona,
but it is starting to look like Kingsbury has every intention
of going four- and five-wide on a regular basis, possibly with
Kirk starting to share lead duties with Larry Fitzgerald. It can't
be overstated Kirk managed to become a semi-regular fantasy starter
as a rookie in what was a terrible and unimaginative offense led
by a rookie quarterback behind a poor offensive line. This year's
offensive line may not be appreciably better, but the arrival
of Kyler Murray doesn't only help the running game by slowing
down - if not stopping entirely - weakside pursuit. The No. 1
overall pick's mobility is going to come in handy when passing
plays break down, and there's plenty of reason to believe Kirk
now has the best combination of natural hands, quickness and speed
on the roster.
The interesting part about projecting him as a sleeper candidate
is that true spread offenses tend to spread the wealth unless
there is a clear alpha in the bunch. I'm not sure Kirk is there
yet, nor am I sure Fitzgerald should be considered one anymore.
His current 7.05 ADP as the WR32 feels about right, but I'm not
sure he's got the highest upside. I expect a number of Cardinals
to finish with between 50 and 70 catches, and there's a distinct
possibility David Johnson will pace the team in receptions. Given
Fitzgerald's track record, I think we'll have to assume he'll
lead the wideouts. As such, I probably won't be getting Kirk on
many teams this summer unless he falls into WR4 territory. Why?
Even if we project extreme volume - say 650 attempts (only Pittsburgh
had more last season) - and say Arizona completes 400 throws,
it's still hard to see how a player like Kirk - who could be the
third look in the progression at times - is going to get enough
action to be considered an every-week starter. He's getting drafted
like one at the moment.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Gone are the days when the Falcons
could turn to Tevin Coleman to lead the backfield in the event
Devonta Freeman was forced to miss some time. Atlanta was obviously
confident enough in Ito Smith to serve as the new complement to
Freeman when everyone is healthy, but it's unrealistic for the
team to expect the 5-9. 195-pounder to handle much more than the
15 touches that usually served as Coleman's ceiling. Thus, if
Freeman is forced to miss multiple games for the third straight
season, someone else will need to step up to be the hammer. The
219-pound Hill, who was the team's fifth-round pick in 2017, is
one such option. The other realistic possibility is the 225-pound
Ollison, who was the team's fifth-round pick this spring. Common
sense dictates Ollison will have a slight edge to begin camp since
he likely would not have been drafted if the team was pleased
with Hill in the bruiser-type role. Neither player is a particularly
good athlete - at least when compared to Freeman and Smith - so
the odds of either player becoming the handcuff are slim.
The reason this is a topic worth discussing is that Freeman could
already be in decline. And it may not matter if Freeman stays
healthy and is able to carry over what
he did during the spring into the regular season. However,
another year of Freeman missing 10-plus games would result in
roughly 150 carries and goal-line work for the Ollison-Hill winner
on an offense that just added two very good prospects to the line
and will complement a defense that should be much better after
getting ravaged by injuries in 2018. It stands to reason Atlanta
will be utilizing "11" personnel as much as any team
this season with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and
Austin Hooper, so it's not as if the Falcons should be running
into a lot of stacked boxes. I'm certainly not advocating for
owners to spend a draft pick on the likely winner of the competition
(Ollison), but veteran fantasy owners are no strangers to seeing
average talents emerge as key cogs late in the season en route
to a fantasy title. I think such a scenario could play out in
Atlanta. At the very least, keep Ollison on watch lists in deeper
leagues.
The path has been cleared for Curtis Samuel
following the departure of Devin Funchess.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Samuel managed to turn 47 offensive
touches into 578 total yards and seven touchdowns in 2018. In
2017, he tallied only 19 total touches. If it seems like he isn't
getting the ball enough, it's in part because the team hasn't
had as much time to develop him as most players heading into their
third season. He battled back tightness and hamstring issues as
a rookie, costing him seven games. Last year, it was ankle surgery
and a heart condition that kept him from having a normal offseason
and caused him to miss three games. He finally avoided setbacks
of any kind this spring, so it's not overly shocking he performed
well enough to be considered an offensive MVP by at least one
beat writer during mandatory minicamp. HC Ron Rivera didn't seem
to disagree:
“He’s always fast and quick, but it’s learning
and understanding how to get in and out of breaks, and how to
snap out of that break with your hands presenting a good target.
His catch radius I think has improved. I just think his overall
game has improved."
Not that he needed the help, but the path has been cleared for
Samuel following the departure of Devin Funchess. Beginning in
Week 9 last year, the Ohio State product reached double-digit
fantasy points in seven of the last nine contests despite his
limited number of touches. Samuel actually had two double-digit
target games over that stretch, which is two more than first-round
rookie D.J. Moore did all season long. Does that mean Samuel is
the No. 1 receiver in town or was it a fluke? Only time will tell,
but it seems more likely than not this is closer to a 1A/1B situation
than is being reflected in early drafts. At the moment, Moore
sports an ADP of 6.04 as the overall WR27. Meanwhile, Samuel is
at 11.01 and WR48, respectively. It's hard to justify that kind
of gap even if Moore ends up emerging as the leader this summer.
Suffice it to say I believe the odds are very much that Samuel
emerges as a draft-day steal.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Montgomery isn't exactly the type
of player I am looking to target in Early Observations, but his
expected role seems to be a subject of some debate. Perhaps Tarik
Cohen confused some when he said his
role wasn't going to change. I don't think there was ever
going to be any doubt Cohen would maintain his change-of-pace/third-down
role, but it doesn't make a ton of sense for the Bears to add
two backs capable of playing all three downs in one offseason
if they don't intend to ride them fairly hard. Jordan Howard handled
270 touches in 2018 under Nagy and wasn't even the preferred option.
That's not to suggest Montgomery will push 300 - Mike Davis is
a more than capable back and will steal some work, as will movable
chess piece Cordarrelle Patterson - but the rookie is a very good
bet to push for at least half of the 470 touches the Chicago backfield
amassed last season.
Nagy has been effusive in his praise for the third-round rookie
so far, acknowledging similarities between Montgomery and Hunt
in terms of making defenders miss inside the tackle box, showing
good hands and the ability to play all three downs. He also earned
the respect of Nagy for his route-running - an observation very
similar to the one Montgomery's college coach at Iowa State (Matt
Campbell) made this spring. (Among other things, Campbell said
his workhorse back was the Cyclones' best slot receiver.) While
Chicago figures to be fine in the slot without the rookie, it
only reinforces the notion Montgomery is going to see the field
a lot. Montgomery's 4.04 ADP per Fantasy Football Calculator
feels about right, but I took part in an industry draft in early
June in which I landed him at 4.13 in a 14-team draft and wrote
about he was the most undervalued running back according to Fantasy
Pros early ADP rankings just over two weeks later here.
Howard finished as the RB20 last season and seemed to go for long
stretches without being a critical part of the offense. Outside
of the explosiveness that Cohen brings to the table, there's not
really a reason Nagy has to pull Montgomery off the field. The
rookie is going to play and play a lot barring injury. Montgomery
is an excellent candidate to outperform his ADP. Conversely, with
all-purpose backs such as Montgomery and Davis now on the roster,
Cohen is highly unlikely to match his 2018 production.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: One of the more interesting ongoing
and under-the-radar stories this offseason involves the departure
of Cole Beasley, who has not been shy about making his feelings
known toward his former team. (Here's
a sample.) Cobb was added in free agency to replace him and
thankfully has not engaged in any kind of social media battle,
but he has managed to do something already that Beasley either
struggled with or was not allowed to do - build "a fast connection"
with Dak Prescott.
“He’s been great, honestly. An ex-quarterback,
knows the game up and down, knows every aspect of it; knows when
he’s in the read what progression he is, and when you have
a guy like that, he’s going to get open, he knows how to
get open. … We’ve had a fast connection. You take
something, approach something, go out there and he does it right
the first time. When you have a guy like that, it allows you to
cut the ball loose, it allows you to anticipate. It allows you
to trust he’s going to be in the right spot and he hasn’t
failed in doing that.”
The natural inclination is to read into a quote like that and
surmise it is as much about what Beasley didn't do as what Cobb
is doing. I'm not going to attempt to parse Prescott's words that
closely, in part because I don't think that's what he saying and
in part because I'm not sure it's worth reading that much into
it. First and foremost, Cobb will have to fight for looks with
Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Jason Witten and Ezekiel Elliott.
Just as importantly, Cobb has struggled to stay healthy, missing
multiple games in three straight seasons - including seven in
2018. Mostly for those two reasons, it's conceivable Cobb will
play a big role in this offense (when healthy) and still not be
worth stashing in fantasy. Beasley, who has managed to stay on
the field much more than Cobb, finished no better than the overall
WR32 in his best season (2016). He needed to play all 16 games
and catch 77 percent of his targets in order to pull that off.
Expecting Cobb to do more with his targets is one thing, but expecting
the ex-Packer to play a bigger role AND remain healthy enough
for it to matter to fantasy owners is another.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Fantasy owners couldn't get enough
of Jones in 2017, but all it took was one injury-plagued season
in which Kenny Golladay emerged as the top receiver for Detroit
to consider him expendable. Although it's not exactly something
he could control per se, Jones hasn't helped his cause by missing
the entire offseason program with the same knee issue that limited
him to nine games in 2018. He is expected to be ready for training
camp and should have no problem nailing down the other starting
job opposite Golladay if he is healthy, but the clock very much
appears to be ticking on his time in Detroit. Dave Birkett of
the Detroit Free Press noted the Lions coincidently shut him down
for the season shortly after he questioned HC Matt Patricia's
policy on having injured players watch from a suite instead of
from the field. Birkett also stated he expects Jones to have a
strong season this fall.
Is that part reasonable? Detroit pretty much returns every one
important at receiver, with the one exception being Danny Amendola
replacing Golden Tate. Amendola has proven not to be anywhere
near as durable as Tate, which theoretically opens the door for
more targets. However, there's also the small matter of getting
Kerryon Johnson more opportunities as a receiver and Patricia's
desire to turn the Lions into a run-oriented offense. T.J. Hockenson
was not only selected in the top 10 this spring to help with the
latter part of the last sentence, but because he was also arguably
the draft's most sure-handed pass-catcher at his position. Unlike
when Jones first arrived on the scene, there are a number of viable
targets now in Detroit. His current position as the WR39 sounds
about right, but I struggle to see enough upside to consider him
in the early ninth round (ADP of 9.02). I'd much rather take my
chances on wideouts such as Courtland Sutton, Keke Coutee and
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - all of whom are going at least one
round later.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo
Allison are battling for target share opposite Davante Adams.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: One of the joys of offseason hype
is when owners are presented two solid options fighting for a
starting job opposite a star receiver - both of which have a small
track record of success - in an offense led by one of the best
quarterbacks in league history. As things stand now, it would
appear Adams and Valdes-Scantling will operate as the perimeter
receivers in three-wide sets while Allison works inside. But which
one will start (or more importantly, see more snaps)? Adams seems
to think the offense is catered to Valdes-Scantling. There's also
statistical evidence to suggest Valdes-Scantling is the better
option, as he created separation (defined as getting at least
one step of separation between himself and his defender) on 70.3
percent of his routes last season, per Pro Football Focus.
The downside of that statistic is that someone generating that
much separation should be getting fed the ball a lot, and that
didn't happen for Valdes-Scantling over the second half of the
season. While we didn't get much of a look at Allison before he
was lost for the season, it seemed pretty clear he was a trusted
target of Aaron Rodgers. Owners may never know whether his looks
were going to level off as Valdes-Scantling's did, but the fact
of the matter is we don't have any evidence to suggest otherwise.
None of this is all that big of a deal if Green Bay continues
to rely heavily on three-wide formations, but judging by the Packers'
hoarding of tight ends this offseason, it seems as though they're
trying to drive home the point they intend to use more two-tight
sets in 2019. If that ends up being the case, either Valdes-Scantling
or Allison will become more of a part-time player than they would
have ever been under former HC Mike McCarthy. And that is a problem
because Allison currently has an ADP of 9.01 as the WR36 and Valdes-Scantling
has an ADP of 10.02 as the WR47. While mid-round picks usually
don't decide fantasy championships by themselves, it's hard to
invest draft capital before Round 10 on receivers who may not
even start for their own team. Valdes-Scantling is the logical
choice to win the job based on talent, but we have seen numerous
examples of the lesser-talented player winning the job because
the quarterback trusts him more. My advice to early drafters would
be to stash Valdes-Scantling and hope for the best, but I would
expect most owners will draft late enough in August to know who
the "winner" will be. If the winner is a clear one,
be prepared to invest a draft pick in him sometime in the sixth
round of 12-team drafts.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: It only just seems like the Rams
have been waiting on Everett to take the next step for about four
years. Fantasy owners are rarely ever patient, and this is yet
another case in which they need to let the third-year tight end
develop organically. Anyone who watched Everett play at South
Alabama (or read a draft report about him) knew he was a work
in progress when it came to blocking, so the expectation with
him should never have been that he was going to take the world
by storm in either one of his first two seasons. HC Sean McVay
didn't help his cause in that regard though the moment he said
identified Everett as his new Jordan Reed in the 2017 draft. Will
Year 3 be his year? It's a possibility, and one the Rams will
probably attempt to speed up given their current situation. Cooper
Kupp is coming off ACL surgery, while Todd Gurley's knee is either
being coddled or beyond repair - depending on who you ask. Los
Angeles still has two very capable pass-catchers in Robert Woods
and Brandin Cooks, but there is definitely room for Everett to
make a sizeable impact.
McVay noted "the game is starting to slow down for him"
and that Everett is "just continuing to progress and take
steps" in his development after emerging as a "clear
standout" during the spring, according to ESPN's Lindsey
Thiry. Ultimately, McVay and the Rams are waiting on Everett to
become a good enough run blocker where they don't lose much in
that area if he is in the game and Tyler Higbee is not. That kind
of thing can only really be determined in padded practices, so
all the praise Everett seems to be generating is just noise for
now. With that said, he is developing at about the pace we should
expect from tight ends - at least statistically. While his ceiling
figures to be dictated by how much improvement he has made as
a blocker, 2019 could easily be the year in which his development
coincides with his team needing him to step up. After his TE22
finish a season ago, he is a strong candidate to push for 50 catches
and become a top-15 fantasy option at his position.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Mattison forced the third-most missed
tackles of any draft-eligible back in the FBS in 2018 last year,
per Pro Football Focus. That quality was among the things that
attracted Minnesota to the Boise State product, who will be asked
to slide into the change-of-pace role behind Dalvin Cook. Of course,
fantasy owners know what else this means: a rookie that most of
the world either did not watch in college or hear much about during
the draft process will now be asked to back up a dynamic running
back who has never handled more than 10 carries in five straight
contests or played in more than 11 games in his first two seasons
as a pro. To his credit, Cook has enjoyed an uneventful offseason
(i.e. he's not rehabbing some injury), so perhaps it will be less
important to draft his handcuff in Year 3. But just because Cook
is 100 percent at the moment doesn't mean a whole lot to fantasy
owners; the 2017 second-round pick will be considered one of the
league's most injury-prone backs until he proves otherwise.
This leads us back to Mattison, who shares similarities with
Murray in that he is a physical grinder who complements Cook well
and seems to get better with more work. The difference is that
while Murray is more straight-ahead, Mattison is more of a threat
in the passing game and can make a tackler or two miss in the
hole. In short, he is a better and more complete back than Murray
behind what should be an improved offensive line in an offense
that promises to run the ball more often in 2019. While the rookie
isn't the big-play back Cook is, he is more than capable. A nice
bonus is the arrival of offensive advisor Gary Kubiak. If his
presence means anything to first-time OC Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota
will likely be utilizing outside zone runs more often - something
that suits Cook and Mattison much more than it would have Murray.
I'm of the belief this will be the season Cook holds up, but I'm
not so sure about it that I wouldn't go a round or two early on
Mattison (current ADP is 11.10). There's a good chance Mattison
lives up to that draft cost even if Cook stays healthy, so it
goes without saying the rookie will be worth an 11th-round pick
if Cook goes down again.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: In the four seasons since Graham
was traded to Seattle, the Saints have run through Ben Watson
(twice), Josh Hill, Michael Hoomanawanui, Coby Fleener, John Phillips,
Garrett Griffin and Dan Arnold. Watson was able to muster a TE7
season the year after Graham left, but Fleener's TE15 effort in
2016 is the best fantasy finish of any New Orleans tight end in
the last three years. The Saints are paying Cook $15.5 million
over the next two years in order to change that. If the early
talk is any indication, the 32-year-old is well on his way to
living up to expectations. Drew Brees is among the Saints who
seem happy Cook is around.
“He’s got a great feel for the game, and I think
he’s going to fit very well in our offense. He’s got
great length, so he’s got a big catch radius. You feel confident
with those 50-50 balls. You feel like there’s a lot of places
where you can throw it where he can get it and the other guy can’t.
Anytime you have a target like that, you feel like that’s
a good matchup.”
To that end, TE coach Dan Campbell mentioned the likelihood of
using some of the same concepts for Cook that New Orleans utilized
with Graham. While he noted the team is going to do what Cook
does best, he didn't hold back any praise either.
"A phenomenal athlete. The guy is over 30 and he still
runs like the wind. He can absolutely smoke. He’s got 35-inch
arms, he is long - man, he is long - and he is fast."
So what does it all mean? First and foremost, the Saints didn't
quite have a receiver of Michael Thomas' stature when Graham was
still around. Marcus Colston was nearing the end of his career
in 2014 (his last great season was 2012 - just as Graham was starting
to come into his own), while Brandin Cooks was a rookie. New Orleans
also didn't have someone with the playmaking skills of Alvin Kamara
back then either. In short, Cook has to compete with more viable
targets than Graham did. Of course, that does not mean the former
first-round pick isn't going to thrive in the Big Easy. Owners
should probably expect Thomas to take a slight hit in production
(likely more in line with his 104-catch season in 2017 as opposed
to his 125-catch year in 2018). If that happens, Cook could push
for 70-plus catches, 10 TDs or both.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Once upon a time, Eli Manning could
make three receivers relevant in fantasy. Over the last two or
three years, it could be argued he held back the one superstar
wideout he had. While the Daniel Jones question will come up after
every poor performance, the odds are stacked against the rookie
to succeed in 2019 too. One of the reasons is it could easily
be argued that both Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate are better
No. 2 receivers and work better out of the slot. Neither one is
going to stretch the field either, although it's debatable Manning
could take advantage of a deep threat at this point of his career
anyway. Making things worse, none of the candidates for third
receiver duties are inspired choices. Cody Latimer reportedly
began the offseason as the leader and Corey Coleman ended the
spring with the edge. Darius Slayton did enough along the way
to put himself in the running for the job, but he's a rookie with
limited college production. It is not always a bad thing to have
at least three players vying for such an important role, but most
fantasy owners already know Latimer and Coleman as a couple of
players who have failed in other places despite having more going
for them in those other spots.
Unfortunately, Evan Engram is coming off a season in which he
spent 47.3 of his snaps in the slot, per Pro Football Focus. It
speaks to the poor roster construction of this team that all three
of its top options in the passing game are best in the slot. Fortunately
for Engram, playing inline more might work to his benefit as a
receiver, as it should guarantee he gets matched up with a safety
or linebacker. That's a big deal on an offense that doesn't offer
many "matchup problems" for defenses, and it's perhaps
the best reason to believe Engram is going to lead the team in
receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2019. While Shepard
and Tate are shaping up to be uninspired fantasy WR3s, Engram's
extrapolated 16-game totals without Odell Beckham Jr. around (15
games over his first two seasons) would be roughly 75 catches,
946 yards and six or seven touchdowns. If Engram can play 16 games
for the first time in his career in 2019, those marks are achievable.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: One would think the buzzworthy man
in an NFL town would be the player coming off a league-record
(for a tight end) 116-catch season or the return of one of the
premier deep threats in the game. However, almost no one has generated
more praise around the league than Goedert, who reportedly stood
out in a big way during spring practices. That's right. The second-year
backup tight end. Not Zach Ertz. Not DeSean Jackson. Goedert's
development puts HC Doug Pederson in an interesting predicament
for the upcoming season: using more two-tight formations will
only stunt the development of an eventual starter such as JJ Arcega-Whiteside
and isn't going to help the team in its quest to trade Nelson
Agholor. The alternative is to find new and creative ways to utilize
Goedert, who is already recognized as the team's best blocking
tight end, while also getting more snaps in the slot for Ertz,
who lined up inside 38.4 percent of the time in 2018.
Although it doesn't happen very often (especially in today's
game), we've seen examples of two tight ends from the same team
be able to enjoy fantasy relevancy in the same season (Colts,
Patriots and Chargers come to mind over the last 10 years or so).
It's also important to note Philadelphia has generated the most
fantasy-point production at tight end in each of the last two
years. There's little question Ertz is going to remain the primary
focus of the offense because he shares such a strong connection
with Carson Wentz. Thus, the best owners can probably hope for
from Goedert without an injury to Ertz is probably something in
the 45-catch, 5-6 touchdown range (which would be a nice little
bump from the 33-334-4 line from last year). Of course, that's
not a good enough excuse to stash Goedert. The reason owners in
deeper leagues need to find a spot for him is because he is probably
the best combination of bye-week and league-winning upside that
will exist at his position late in drafts or on the waiver wire.
Imagine the possibilities if Ertz is forced to miss multiple weeks
at some point. Goedert was the overall TE20 last year even though
Ertz played all 16 games. Is it realistic to think he won't improve
on that mark this year? He is going undrafted at the moment. I'll
certainly consider him over T.J. Hockenson (11.02) and maybe even
Kyle Rudolph (14.03).
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: The running back situation in San
Francisco does not lack for intrigue. Incidentally, it also reveals
how many felt about each of the three backs before Coleman joined
the fray. One of the most common points mentioned with the ex-Falcon
being considered the favorite to lead the committee in 2019 is
his familiarity with HC Kyle Shanahan's system. (Huh?) So are
we conveniently forgetting Breida ran for more yards while operating
at far less than 100 percent in Shanahan's system last year than
Coleman has in any of his four pro seasons? How about McKinnon
still being one of the league's highest-paid backs? Did Coleman
supporters conveniently forget his contract didn't come with a
signing bonus and gives the team the option to part ways with
him after the season with a minimal cap hit? Or has everybody
been sucked in by the fact that Coleman was the only one of the
group not currently overcoming a serious injury?
Shanahan told reporters in mid-March that "it
can make a lot of sense this year (to use all three backs)"
and that Coleman
might handle short-yardage situations in 2019. As much as
people want to believe Coleman may end up being "the man,"
I think those two nuggets may be the only ones owners can put
much stock in at this point. We are just over one year removed
from Shanahan speaking in glowing terms about the mismatches McKinnon
can create in the passing game. Breida was more productive last
season - both from a total rushing yard and yard-per-carry perspective
- than Coleman has ever been as a pro. I realize I'm probably
in the minority, but I'm still on the belief Breida is the favorite
for the early-down role and McKinnon is the favorite to be the
primary passing-down option. I also think Shanahan isn't anywhere
close to having many of the backfield roles decided yet. In backfield
"situations" such as this one, it typically makes the
most sense for owners to grab the least expensive - in terms of
draft capital - of the bunch and stash him. At the moment, that
player is Breida (13.10 ADP). What I do know is that Coleman's
6.03 ADP assumes he is a good bet for 200-plus touches. Sixth-round
picks should be every-week starters in fantasy, and I don't think
we can be certain he'll return flex value for the entire season.
McKinnon's 9.10 ADP makes the most sense of the bunch, although
his fantasy upside - given his chops the passing game - may be
higher than that of Coleman or Breida.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: So … Chris Carson fans and
fantasy owners thought it was going to be safe to breathe easy
after he ran for 1,151 yards and nine touchdowns last season.
Au contraire. The Seahawks didn't spend a first-round pick on
Penny last year with the idea he was going to play second fiddle
for the duration of his rookie contract. To his credit, Penny
has taken matters into his own hands this offseason, dropping
roughly 15 pounds and reaching out to fellow San Diego State alum
Marshall Faulk to mentor him. The hoopla surrounding Penny last
year was amazing in that I wasn't
all that high on him as a prospect, first and foremost. Secondly,
he wasn't all that great in the passing game in college. To that
end, Seattle only targeted him in four of the 12 games he played
as a rookie, and he finished with nine catches for the season.
Last but not least, it seemed when Penny wasn't overweight last
summer, he was hurt (or vice versa).
While I'm certainly going to want to see the "new"
Penny before I fully make up my mind, it makes a lot more sense
to me to invest in him this season than it did in 2018. The weight
loss is a big deal because, quite frankly, I never saw quite the
explosion others raved about. It only helps his cause HC Pete
Carroll has already said he wants Carson and Penny to form a "one-two"
punch and added, "I don’t know who’s one and
who’s two, it doesn’t matter to me." This is
shaping up to be another situation in which a team may be compelled
to ride the "hot hand," so the ADP gap between
Carson (5.06) and Penny (7.03) probably needs to close.
Seattle's running backs combined for 451 carries and 68 catches
last season, meaning AT LEAST two backs could conceivably be what
is generally considered a bell-cow now. Carson's take-no-prisoners,
physical style of running makes him a bet to miss time sooner
than later too, so it should go without saying Penny should be
considered one of the top handcuffs in fantasy. If Carroll truly
does not care about who is No. 1 and No. 2 (and I can see that
given the team's investment in Penny), then there is a decent
chance he'll be a strong flex option with massive upside.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: It would be hard to dream up a scenario
in which a skill-position player taken inside the top 50 of any
draft would finish with 30 touches for 77 yards. Some production
is ridiculous enough - good or bad - that it almost has to be
dismissed. Per Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay's adjusted line yards
ranked 31st in the league last year. The Buccaneers were stuffed
(carries for zero or negative yards) on 24.7 percent of their
running plays. Jones was hit behind the line of scrimmage on 13
of his 23 carries. He quickly fell behind the eight-ball when
the hamstring injury he suffered at the 2018 NFL Combine lingered
into offseason practices, which obviously did not help him in
terms of his development in the passing game - perhaps the one
area that was his biggest weakness coming out of USC. However,
while we can only speculate on intangible factors such as confidence,
Jones' confidence had to shot by the time he saw his first regular-season
game action in Week 4. His line - usually second-teamers - was
awful in the preseason, he couldn't get healthy and HC Dirk Koetter
played an undrafted free agent (Shaun Wilson) over him the first
three weeks because he "could help the team more." People
can dismiss such things all they want; young players seek validation
and need to know those closest to them are on their side. It's
hard to point to one situation following the draft last season
in which Tampa Bay did that for Jones.
None of this is really meant to serve an excuse for Jones, but
owners need to recognize/remember a few things about him. Here
is what one NFL personnel executive told NFL Media's Lance Zeirlein
two springs ago: "I love his juice. You have to have some
of that to become a good back in the pros and he has a lot of
it." Zeirlein himself compared Jones to Jamaal Charles; I
compared his running style to Kenyan Drake. He fumbled twice in
591 career carries in college. Pro Football Focus ranked him ninth
among FBS running backs with 830 yards after contact in his final
season as an amateur. The point is this is a prospect who was
lauded for his decisiveness, elusiveness and big-play ability
as a 20-year-old college back. As someone who watched every one
of his touches as a rookie, I can't recall a time in which he
had a chance to show off any of those traits.
No one is pronouncing Jones as the next David Johnson just because
new HC Bruce Arians is now in charge. It's also quite possible
all of this offseason praise is all about rebuilding Jones' confidence
after a year in which Koetter and his staff might have ruined
it. Regardless of how much stock anyone puts into my draft evaluations,
owners should keep in mind some very smart football people thought
this player was on par or better than draft classmates Nick Chubb
and Kerryon Johnson. With that said, Jones' current 8.03 ADP is
a great example of how reactive the general public is to offseason
puff pieces, as I am quite confident the late April and May drafters
probably didn’t have him going in the first 12 rounds. As
much as I liked him as a prospect, I cannot defend him going in
the same range as Jordan Howard (8.06), LeSean McCoy (8.07) and
Royce Freeman (8.07) given what we know right now. Seriously,
has his expected role changed? I'll be the first to say he will
be more than deserving of his ADP when he is named the starter
and shows dramatic improvement as a receiver. Until then, I'll
hope he's available to me in Round 10.
Early-July Fantasy Reaction: Gruden has been consistent in his
praise of Quinn dating back to last season, calling him a "silent
assassin" and "quarterback-friendly target"
as early as last June. Last year's Mr. Irrelevant was unable to
reward his coach's faith for the most part, landing on IR after
Week 1 and again in early December with ankle injuries. In between
his two IR stints, Quinn filled in for an injured Jamison Crowder
for two games and gave fans and fantasy owners alike a taste of
what he could do. Obviously, most people aren't going to go crazy
over nine catches for 75 yards, but the mere fact he was more
than solid in his two opportunities with so little practice time
speaks to why Washington seems to love him so much. Keenum told
NBC Sports Washington, "Trey Quinn is going to be really
special." Receivers coach Ike Hilliard told the site he considers
Quinn to be a breakout candidate for the 2019 season.
There is no magic formula when it comes to trying to read what
coaches and teammates are saying about a player, especially at
a time of year when no one has put on shoulder pads. However,
it's a pretty good start when the head coach, position coach and
probable Week 1 starter at quarterback are pretty much saying
the same thing. It also helps when we have visual proof - albeit
a very limited sample size - of Quinn displaying the quickness,
intelligence and physicality Gruden has mentioned several times.
Washington doesn't lack for talent - in terms of where they were
drafted - at its outside receiver spots (Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson,
Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon among them), but not a single
one of the bunch has proven himself at the NFL level over a significant
period of time. Gruden's offenses have typically made good use
of slot receivers and each of the Redskins' three quarterbacks
this year is either best suited to throw short (Colt McCoy and
Keenum) or used to doing so (Haskins with Parris Campbell at Ohio
State). Crowder average 64 catches over the previous three seasons
as the primary slot option, which sounds more than reasonable
for Quinn if he can stay on the field. The SMU product is one
of the more obvious players going undrafted - even in 14-team
drafts - right now in fantasy who could easily become a weekly
starter before September is over. Based on the names of some of
the players who are getting drafted right now, I wouldn't hesitate
to draft Quinn as early as the 12th round.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
