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Preseason Schedule Analysis
The "Big Boards" - Version 2
8/31/10

Change is inevitable. As much as fantasy owners hate this little bit of wisdom, it takes only a missed tackle or blown assignment in some cases to drastically alter a player’s value. Over the long term, however, fantasy value is usually established by consistency and, in the case of the elite players, consistent greatness.

The reason I decided to briefly discuss change this week is because you will see a great deal of it below. In just one week, my opinion on a number of players has changed, almost to the point where one might question how it is possible that some players’ values could be so volatile. Granted, some of it has to do with the action I’ve taken in during the third game of the preseason – the now-famous “dress rehearsal” week – but much of the change on the newest version of the boards has to do with a tidbit of new information in some cases or another review of the schedule in other cases.

As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big Board" in your attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2010.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a couple of key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous. No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end more fantasy championship dreams than they help.

Note: I’ve expanded both Big Boards to 175 players this year, with no defenses or kickers mixed in. Again, I will let you – the fantasy owner – decide at what point you should select your kicker and defense, although I don’t mind grabbing my defense in the 12th or 13th round of a 16-round draft when I feel really good about the team I have drafted to that point and the schedule suggests there is a team that is in line to have an incredible year on defense. (This year, that team is the Niners, in my opinion.) One major change from last year is that I have carried over the entire color-coding system from my PSAs to the Big Boards in order to give you an easy reference tool for the entire season and not just Weeks 14-16.

Key:
OR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
AVG – Fantasy points/game
TOT – Total fantasy points scored
V – Volatility
(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players:

 PPR Big Board
OR PR Pos Player V AVG TOT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 23.9 358
2 2 RB Chris Johnson - 23.8 333
3 3 RB Ray Rice 22.5 338
4 4 RB Adrian Peterson 21.3 320
5 5 RB Frank Gore 21.1 296
6 1 QB Aaron Rodgers 27.6 414
7 1 WR Andre Johnson 20.0 300
8 6 RB Steven Jackson 20.6 310
9 2 WR Randy Moss 19.0 285
10 7 RB Michael Turner 17.1 257
11 2 QB Drew Brees 24.4 366
12 3 WR Calvin Johnson 19.2 269
13 4 WR Roddy White 18.5 278
14 5 WR Miles Austin 17.7 265
15 8 RB Jamaal Charles 18.8 283
16 9 RB DeAngelo Williams 16.4 247
17 3 QB Peyton Manning 23.5 352
18 4 QB Tony Romo + 24.0 360
19 6 WR Reggie Wayne 17.3 260
20 7 WR Marques Colston 17.3 259
21 10 RB Rashard Mendenhall - 16.1 241
22 11 RB Arian Foster + 15.8 221
23 12 RB Jahvid Best + 15.7 220
24 13 RB Ryan Mathews 14.3 215
25 8 WR Brandon Marshall 17.2 258
26 9 WR Steve Smith (CAR) 17.5 263
27 10 WR Dwayne Bowe + 16.7 251
28 11 WR Greg Jennings 16.2 243
29 5 QB Tom Brady 21.6 324
30 12 WR Anquan Boldin 18.2 237
31 13 WR Larry Fitzgerald 15.2 229
32 14 RB Pierre Thomas 15.8 206
33 15 RB Cedric Benson - 15.3 200
34 16 RB Shonn Greene ^ 15.9 175
35 17 RB Ryan Grant 14.2 213
36 18 RB Matt Forte 15.0 225
37 19 RB Knowshon Moreno 14.5 218
38 20 RB LeSean McCoy - 15.0 225
39 21 RB Jonathan Stewart 13.9 209
40 14 WR Steve Smith (NYG) 15.6 234
41 6 QB Matt Schaub 21.4 321
42 1 TE Jermichael Finley ^ 17.4 261
43 2 TE Antonio Gates 16.8 252
44 3 TE Vernon Davis 16.2 244
45 4 TE Brent Celek + 16.1 241
46 5 TE Jason Witten + 15.8 238
47 7 QB Joe Flacco + 19.3 289
48 6 TE Dallas Clark 15.2 229
49 22 RB Joseph Addai - 13.9 209
50 15 WR DeSean Jackson ! 14.9 224
51 7 TE Tony Gonzalez 14.9 223
52 8 QB Philip Rivers - 18.8 281
53 9 QB Jay Cutler - 20.9 314
54 10 QB Kevin Kolb - 19.1 287
55 23 RB Chris Wells 13.0 195
56 24 RB Michael Bush ^ 13.8 207
57 16 WR Hines Ward 15.3 229
58 17 WR Michael Crabtree 14.1 212
59 18 WR Mike Wallace ^ 14.5 218
60 19 WR Hakeem Nicks + 14.2 213
61 20 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 15.0 211
62 21 WR Wes Welker ! 14.7 191
63 22 WR Johnny Knox ^ 14.2 213
64 23 WR Chad Ochocinco 14.8 222
65 24 WR Percy Harvin ! 15.6 219
66 25 WR Terrell Owens 14.7 221
67 25 RB Ricky Williams 14.3 215
68 26 RB Reggie Bush 14.4 187
69 27 RB Cadillac Williams 13.9 194
70 28 RB Ahmad Bradshaw + 13.3 186
71 29 RB Ronnie Brown - 13.1 157
72 30 RB C.J. Spiller 12.1 182
73 31 RB Fred Jackson 10.2 153
74 32 RB Marion Barber 11.9 178
75 26 WR Derrick Mason 14.3 215
76 27 WR Malcom Floyd 12.9 194
77 28 WR Jeremy Maclin 13.1 197
78 8 TE Zach Miller (OAK) 14.0 210
79 33 RB Tim Hightower 13.3 200
80 34 RB LaDainian Tomlinson - 11.8 165
81 35 RB Felix Jones - 12.3 160
82 36 RB Brandon Jacobs + 12.3 173
83 9 TE Chris Cooley 14.6 219
84 11 QB Matthew Stafford ^ 18.6 279
85 12 QB Matt Ryan 18.2 273
86 13 QB Ben Roethlisberger 18.6 204
87 14 QB Carson Palmer 19.3 289
88 29 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 12.9 194
89 30 WR Santana Moss 13.1 196
90 31 WR Donald Driver ! 12.5 188
91 32 WR Devin Hester + 13.1 196
92 10 TE John Carlson 13.2 198
93 15 QB Eli Manning 17.9 269
94 16 QB Donovan McNabb 18.1 236
95 33 WR Jabar Gaffney + 12.1 182
96 34 WR Mike Williams (TB) !/^ 11.7 176
97 35 WR Nate Burleson 11.9 179
98 36 WR Devin Aromashodu + 11.2 168
99 11 TE Owen Daniels ! 12.2 183
100 12 TE Kellen Winslow 12.1 181
101 36 RB Donald Brown + 10.2 153
102 37 RB Clinton Portis 11.1 166
103 38 RB Justin Forsett + 10.7 161
104 37 WR Mohamed Massaquoi 10.3 155
105 40 RB Darren McFadden - 10.4 136
106 41 RB Montario Hardesty - 9.8 128
107 38 WR Bernard Berrian 10.8 162
108 39 WR Pierre Garcon - 10.2 153
109 40 WR Robert Meachem ! 10.9 164
110 41 WR Dez Bryant 10.5 158
111 42 RB Jerome Harrison + 10.3 155
112 43 RB Thomas Jones + 8.8 133
113 44 RB Bernard Scott + 9.1 128
114 45 RB Steve Slaton 10.1 151
115 42 WR Jerricho Cotchery 12.5 188
116 43 WR Lee Evans 10.5 158
117 44 WR Santonio Holmes ! 13.5 148
118 17 QB Brett Favre ! 16.6 249
119 13 TE Heath Miller 10.3 154
120 14 TE Visanthe Shiancoe 10.3 155
121 45 WR Austin Collie - 10.6 159
122 46 WR Steve Breaston + 9.8 147
123 47 WR Louis Murphy + 10.0 151
124 15 TE Dustin Keller 9.2 138
125 46 RB Leon Washington 8.7 131
126 48 WR Jacoby Jones ^ 9.7 146
127 18 QB Alex Smith 17.2 257
128 19 QB David Garrard 17.4 261
129 20 QB Matt Hasselbeck - 17.2 206
130 21 QB Josh Freeman + 17.6 264
131 47 RB Darren Sproles 9.0 135
132 48 RB Kareem Huggins 8.6 129
133 49 RB Julius Jones - 6.7 94
134 50 RB Tashard Choice + 5.8 87
135 51 RB Willis McGahee - 6.3 95
136 49 WR Vincent Jackson ! 17.2 155
137 50 WR Legedu Naanee + 9.4 141
138 51 WR Mike Thomas ^ 10.6 159
139 52 WR Chris Chambers 10.1 152
140 16 TE Tony Scheffler ^ 8.9 134
141 53 WR Davone Bess 10.0 150
142 54 WR Eddie Royal + 10.0 151
143 55 WR Julian Edelman ^ 8.9 134
144 56 WR Danny Amendola 9.6 144
145 57 WR Kevin Walter 9.2 139
146 52 RB Fred Taylor - 9.1 100
147 53 RB Chester Taylor 8.6 130
148 54 RB Correll Buckhalter 6.5 98
149 55 RB Marshawn Lynch !/^ 4.7 70
150 17 TE Todd Heap - 8.0 120
151 18 TE Jermaine Gresham + 7.6 114
152 58 WR Kenny Britt + 9.0 136
153 22 QB Matt Cassel + 16.8 252
154 23 QB Chad Henne 15.4 231
155 24 QB Vince Young 16.2 243
156 59 WR Sidney Rice - 7.8 117
157 60 WR Early Doucet ^ 8.6 129
158 61 WR Lance Moore 9.1 137
159 62 WR Laurent Robinson !/+ 11.8 130
160 56 RB Anthony Dixon 3.9 59
161 57 RB Jason Snelling 5.4 82
162 62 WR Brian Hartline 8.6 129
163 19 TE Greg Olsen ! 6.3 94
164 20 TE Jeremy Shockey 7.3 110
165 21 TE Kevin Boss 6.7 100
166 22 TE Fred Davis + 6.6 100
167 63 WR Josh Cribbs + 6.9 104
168 64 WR Anthony Gonzalez ^ 6.2 81
169 65 WR Sammie Stroughter 8.3 125
170 23 TE Anthony Fasano 6.5 98
171 24 TE Marcedes Lewis 5.9
172 25 QB Jason Campbell 15.5 233
173 26 QB Matt Moore 15.1 227
174 27 QB Kyle Orton - 14.9 224
175 65 WR Braylon Edwards 6.4 96

Top 10: Late last week, there was an erroneous report about the health of Jones-Drew. Supposedly, he needed to undergo arthroscopic surgery to correct a secretive “minor knee injury”. The story was quickly denied by multiple sources and a collective sigh was heard by all MJD owners. I, for one, am not concerned with the soreness he is experiencing and would still be thrilled to select him No. 1 overall. As much as I like high ceilings and great potential in my fantasy players, there is something to be said about the player that is probably the most “safe” RB pick in fantasy this year. With all of that said, I can make a strong case for any of the first four backs going No. 1 overall and I can also argue why each player should be No. 4 as well.

My first big question comes at the 5-6 spot. First off, if I could trust Gore to stay healthy, he would be my second- or third-ranked RB (and obviously, the second- or third-ranked player overall). Since that is a call I don’t want to make at this point, it becomes a question of whether I should select a RB1 who may give 12-14 games or the player I feel will have the best fantasy season by a QB since Tom Brady in 2007.

Some in the fantasy community have said Green Bay has a more difficult schedule this year than last, which makes Rodgers a bad investment as the first QB selected in fantasy drafts. Without a doubt, the Packers have some difficult games, but their offense is scary good. Besides the fact the Packers can line up four legitimate NFL receivers on any passing play, they also have one of the biggest matchup nightmares at TE in Finley. Considering Rodgers’ accuracy and running ability along with HC Mike McCarthy’s reputation for maximizing the talent he has at QB, there is minimal downside to selecting Rodgers. I’m a big believer that championship fantasy teams start with a solid RB1, so I’ll go Gore for now. But it would not surprise me if I opted for Rodgers, if I am find myself in that situation in the next week or two.

11-20: The one change in this group was at the bottom, where I moved Wayne ahead of Colston. Basically, this shift comes down to the comfort level I have with Wayne. In the Colts’ offense, Wayne is the definite WR1 whereas the same cannot always be said about Colston in New Orleans. Obviously, I’m splitting hairs here; a fantasy owner will be fortunate to land either player and cannot really go wrong with either option. Otherwise, the same ten players that found themselves in this range last week held steady.

21-50: Loyal readers may recall that I have been high on Foster for some time and last weekend only solidified my opinion of him. With Slaton suffering a turf toe injury in that same game and rookie Ben Tate already out for the year, fantasy owners have a rare opportunity to see a backfield that could have easily been a committee this season turn into a possible feature-back situation even before the season starts. If/when Slaton can get back to full health, I still expect him to play a role on passing downs, but HC Gary Kubiak is sold on Foster and you should be too. I’m willing to bet most fantasy sites are just now warming up to Foster as low-end RB2. I’m telling you that I think he can be a legit RB1 this season and compile fantasy totals similar to those posted by Slaton in 2008. I will be targeting him in the third round in each of my 12-team PPR drafts this week and next.

Among my biggest droppers this week is Moreno. Anyone who has been reading my articles over the past year or so knows I have a lot of respect for the University of Georgia alum. However, his situation seems to get worse by the week, especially considering he has seen next to no work in practice or preseason games. At this point, it is questionable if he will be able to play Week 1. Assuming he can, will he get to run behind a healthy and cohesive offensive line, in particular LT Ryan Clady? While the Denver Post is suggesting that Clady will return to practice this week, there is also the issue of how defenses will crowd the line of scrimmage this year to stop the run now that Brandon Marshall no longer plays for the Broncos. Furthermore, Buckhalter is probably a good bet to collect at least 30% of the workload and who knows if HC Josh McDaniels sees LenDale White as a goal-line vulture. When all of those possible question marks come attached to a player – even one as good as Moreno – it is probably best to leave him to another owner unless you can snag him as a RB3.

I feel like I’m really pushing my limits as a fantasy “expert” by giving such a low ranking to Fitzgerald. Believe me, it’s nothing personal as he is one of the top 2-3 actual receivers in the game today. It’s more that I have no faith in Derek Anderson to revisit 2007 and the team apparently has no faith in Leinart because they sure have played like it this preseason. Perhaps when I get a chance later in the week – and before I submit my final Big Board next week – to really break down the Cardinals’ Week 3 preseason game vs. Chicago, I will feel differently. Until that time, however, I don’t want Fitzgerald as anything more than a WR2 in 12-team leagues.

My other featured “dropper of the week” is Greene. I’m not one to say “I told you so”, but if this preseason has done anything, it has opened people’s eyes to the fact that Tomlinson still has some of his trademark burst left. Combine that with my unshakeable belief that Greene will miss some time this season and the fact that he will contribute next to nothing in the passing game and we have the recipe for a player who is being overdrafted by at least one round.

The last player I’ll talk about in this group is Flacco. I feel pretty comfortable with seven QBs this season as fantasy QB1s and the Ravens’ QB is the last of that bunch. The first month of the season doesn’t figure to be a pleasant ride (three of the first four games are on the road vs. the Jets, Bengals and Steelers), but Flacco now has the weapons necessary to overcome all but the toughest matchups and is healthier now than he was at any point during his second-half fade last season. His schedule lightens up after the first few weeks, making him an interesting alternative to the big-ticket QB that owners will need to spend a higher pick on, players such as Manning, Brees or Rodgers.

51-100: Long too pricey for my tastes over the years, I am coming to find that Gonzalez is a bargain this summer. Due in large part to his age and the influx of young high-ceiling talent at his position, I’ve seen Gonzalez regularly fall into the seventh or eighth round of 12-team drafts. Since Gonzalez has been a fourth- or fifth-round fixture for what seems like his entire career, this season presents an excellent opportunity to watch half of your league spend fourth- and fifth-round picks on players like Gates and Finley while you grab a player who can match their production just about every week. If he is available in the sixth round of my money-league PPR drafts, he is as good as gone when my pick comes around.

Harvin climbs back into the part of the Big Board where he belongs – one of the last WR2s available. Since last week’s article, Harvin’s medical team announced they now believe they have uncovered the primary cause of his migraines. If they are right – and Harvin appears to be quite confident they are – then he is in great shape to take over where the injured Sidney Rice left off last season. If he is able to make it through an entire 16-game schedule this season, his numbers could easily take a substantial leap from his impressive 60-catch rookie season.

I’m a bit torn on Spiller. As impressive as his final numbers were in Preseason Week 3 vs. the Bengals, he actually did nothing but lose a lot of yardage during the first quarter when Cincinnati’s full complement of starters were still in the game. It wasn’t until after some key Bengal defenders left the field that the rookie did his damage. Still, his talent is undeniable, even if he bounces everything outside. But will HC Chan Gailey be swayed by the numbers or will he stick to the original plan of using Spiller to complement Fred Jackson?

With Greg Jennings sidelined last week, Driver received the chance to show a national audience that he is fully recovered from offseason knee surgeries. He did that and more in my mind vs. the Colts, allowing him to take a 30-player jump up the rankings into fantasy WR3 territory. It certainly appeared to me in that game he is healthy and that his pre-surgery knees were probably the main culprit of his late-season fade last season.

101-175: I’ll spend the rest of my PPR time talking about three players who are just now generating the kind of buzz they should be generating – Houston’s Jacoby Jones, Tampa Bay’s Kareem Huggins and St. Louis’ Danny Amendola. For as long as he has been a Texan, Jones has teased with his talent but lacked the concentration necessary to take the next step. I have him ranked somewhat conservatively as the last WR4, but he could easily surpass that if he is ready for a bigger role. With Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels on his team, he will almost always been going up against single coverage. Suffice it to say that I don’t believe most defenses have a CB capable of matching up one-on-one with a focused Jones athletically.

To the surprise of many, Huggins made his first Big Board appearance last week. Just in case some of you were wondering, he’s not going away. The Bucs signed Derrick Ward last season with the idea he would share the load with either Cadillac Williams or Earnest Graham; Huggins is the player who took less than one offseason to overtake Ward and make him expendable.

There’s a pretty good chance that many fantasy owners have no clue who Amendola is. Maybe a few folks were introduced to him last week when rookie QB Sam Bradford targeted him on just about every other pass play. Amendola, who played his college ball in Texas Tech’s spread offense, is the most likely replacement for the injured Donnie Avery. Given the fact that Amendola was already going to likely be the slot WR prior to Avery’s injury, the fact that he will in all likelihood be a three-down player now makes him an intriguing option in the final rounds of deep leagues. Certainly, the Rams figure to struggle scoring points again this season, but a 60-catch season is not out of the question for the sure-handed receiver – a total that plays well in just about every PPR league.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OR PR Pos Player V AVG TOT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Chris Johnson - 20.0 281
2 2 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 19.6 294
3 3 RB Adrian Peterson 18.2 274
4 4 RB Ray Rice 18.5 278
5 1 QB Aaron Rodgers 27.6 414
6 5 RB Frank Gore 18.1 253
7 6 RB Michael Turner 16.1 242
8 7 RB Steven Jackson 16.6 250
9 2 QB Drew Brees 24.4 366
10 1 WR Randy Moss 13.3 200
11 2 WR Andre Johnson 13.2 199
12 3 QB Peyton Manning 23.5 352
13 3 WR Calvin Johnson 13.5 189
14 4 WR Roddy White 12.9 194
15 5 WR Miles Austin 11.9 179
16 6 WR Reggie Wayne 11.7 175
17 8 RB Jamaal Charles 15.3 230
18 9 RB Rashard Mendenhall - 13.9 209
19 10 RB DeAngelo Williams 14.6 219
20 7 WR Marques Colston 12.1 181
21 4 QB Tony Romo + 24.0 360
22 11 RB Cedric Benson - 14.0 183
23 12 RB Arian Foster + 13.3 187
24 13 RB Ryan Mathews 12.9 194
25 5 QB Tom Brady 21.6 324
26 14 RB Shonn Greene ^ 15.2 168
27 15 RB Pierre Thomas 13.5 176
28 16 RB Jahvid Best + 12.8 180
29 17 RB Ryan Grant 12.4 187
30 8 WR Steve Smith (CAR) 12.1 181
31 6 QB Matt Schaub 21.4 321
32 18 RB Jonathan Stewart 12.5 188
33 19 RB Matt Forte 12.0 180
34 9 WR Brandon Marshall 11.6 174
35 10 WR Greg Jennings 11.4 171
36 11 WR Dwayne Bowe + 11.1 166
37 12 WR Anquan Boldin 12.2 159
38 13 WR Larry Fitzgerald 10.4 156
39 20 RB Knowshon Moreno 11.8 178
40 21 RB Michael Bush ^ 12.3 184
41 22 RB Chris Wells 11.7 176
42 1 TE Jermichael Finley ^ 12.0 180
43 2 TE Antonio Gates 11.0 166
44 23 RB Ricky Williams 12.1 181
45 24 RB Joseph Addai - 10.9 164
46 25 RB Ronnie Brown - 11.9 143
47 7 QB Joe Flacco + 19.3 289
48 8 QB Philip Rivers - 18.8 281
49 3 TE Vernon Davis 10.7 161
50 26 RB LeSean McCoy - 11.4 172
51 4 TE Brent Celek + 10.2 153
52 5 TE Jason Witten + 10.0 150
53 6 TE Dallas Clark 9.7 146
54 7 TE Tony Gonzalez 9.4 141
55 14 WR Percy Harvin 10.8 151
56 15 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 10.0 141
57 16 WR DeSean Jackson ! 10.0 151
58 17 WR Hines Ward 9.9 148
59 18 WR Michael Crabtree 9.1 136
60 9 QB Jay Cutler - 20.9 314
61 10 QB Kevin Kolb - 19.1 287
62 19 WR Terrell Owens 9.9 149
63 20 WR Chad Ochocinco 9.9 149
64 21 WR Mike Wallace ^ 9.8 148
65 22 WR Steve Smith (NYG) 9.7 146
66 23 WR Johnny Knox ^ 9.6 144
67 27 RB Reggie Bush 10.8 141
68 28 RB Ahmad Bradshaw + 11.5 161
69 29 RB Cadillac Williams 11.6 162
70 30 RB Fred Jackson 8.5 128
71 24 WR Hakeem Nicks + 9.5 142
72 11 QB Matthew Stafford ^ 18.6 279
73 12 QB Matt Ryan 18.2 273
74 31 RB Marion Barber 10.4 156
75 32 RB Tim Hightower 10.1 151
76 33 RB Brandon Jacobs + 11.1 156
77 34 RB LaDainian Tomlinson - 9.8 137
78 35 RB Felix Jones - 10.2 133
79 36 RB C.J. Spiller 8.5 128
80 25 WR Derrick Mason 9.3 139
81 26 WR Malcom Floyd 8.9 133
82 27 WR Jeremy Maclin 8.9 134
83 28 WR Devin Hester + 8.9 133
84 8 TE Zach Miller (OAK) 8.9 134
85 13 QB Ben Roethlisberger 18.6 204
86 14 QB Carson Palmer 19.3 289
87 29 WR Wes Welker ! 8.8 115
88 37 RB Clinton Portis 9.1 137
89 38 RB Donald Brown + 8.9 133
90 30 WR Santana Moss 8.4 126
91 31 WR Donald Driver ! 8.1 122
92 9 TE Chris Cooley 8.9 134
93 39 RB Montario Hardesty - 9.1 118
94 40 RB Justin Forsett + 8.6 130
95 41 RB Darren McFadden - 7.7 100
96 32 WR Mike Williams (TB) !/^ 8.1 122
97 33 WR Nate Burleson 7.7 116
98 34 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 7.6 115
99 42 RB Jerome Harrison + 7.4 111
100 35 WR Jabar Gaffney + 7.8 117
101 36 WR Devin Aromashodu + 7.2 108
102 15 QB Donovan McNabb 18.1 236
103 16 QB Eli Manning 17.9 269
104 10 TE John Carlson 8.3 125
105 37 WR Santonio Holmes ! 9.3 102
106 38 WR Pierre Garcon - 7.3 110
107 43 RB Thomas Jones + 7.7 116
108 17 QB Brett Favre ! 16.6 249
109 39 WR Jerricho Cotchery 8.2 123
110 40 WR Robert Meachem ! 7.6 115
111 41 WR Lee Evans 7.1 106
112 11 TE Owen Daniels ! 8.0 121
113 44 RB Bernard Scott + 7.1 100
114 45 RB Kareem Huggins 6.9 103
115 46 RB Leon Washington 6.7 100
116 47 RB Willis McGahee - 5.8 87
117 42 WR Dez Bryant 6.8 103
118 43 WR Bernard Berrian 7.0 105
119 44 WR Jacoby Jones ^ 7.0 105
120 45 WR Austin Collie - 6.6 100
121 48 RB Fred Taylor - 7.9 87
122 46 WR Steve Breaston + 6.1 92
123 47 WR Louis Murphy + 6.4 97
124 48 WR Mohamed Massaquoi 6.6 99
125 49 WR Vincent Jackson ! 12.1 109
126 12 TE Kellen Winslow 6.9 104
127 13 TE Visanthe Shiancoe 6.8 102
128 14 TE Heath Miller 6.7 100
129 49 RB Tashard Choice + 4.7 71
130 50 RB Steve Slaton 6.9 103
131 50 WR Chris Chambers 7.0 105
132 51 WR Kenny Britt + 6.0 90
133 52 WR Eddie Royal + 6.5 98
134 18 QB David Garrard 17.4 261
135 19 QB Matt Hasselbeck - 17.2 206
136 20 QB Alex Smith 17.2 257
137 21 QB Josh Freeman + 17.6 264
138 53 WR Mike Thomas ^ 6.6 99
139 54 WR Laurent Robinson !/+ 7.6 84
140 55 WR Julian Edelman ^ 5.1 77
141 56 WR Kevin Walter 5.9 89
142 15 TE Tony Scheffler ^ 5.8 87
143 16 TE Dustin Keller 5.6 85
144 57 WR Sidney Rice - 5.2 78
145 51 RB Larry Johnson 7.4 111
146 52 RB Chester Taylor 6.8 102
147 53 RB Darren Sproles 6.2 93
148 54 RB Marshawn Lynch !/^ 3.8 57
149 55 RB Correll Buckhalter 5.4 81
150 56 RB Julius Jones - 5.5 78
151 57 RB Jason Snelling 4.0 60
152 58 RB Kevin Smith 4.2 63
153 59 RB Mike Bell 4.7 71
154 58 WR Danny Amendola 5.8 87
155 59 WR Lance Moore 5.7 85
156 22 QB Matt Cassel + 16.8 252
157 23 QB Vince Young 16.2 243
158 60 WR Davone Bess 5.6 84
159 61 WR Early Doucet ^ 5.5 83
160 62 WR Josh Cribbs + 4.5 67
161 63 WR Brian Hartline 5.3 80
162 64 WR Nate Washington 5.3 79
163 24 QB Jason Campbell 15.5 233
164 25 QB Chad Henne 15.4 231
165 26 QB Matt Moore 15.1 227
166 27 QB Kyle Orton - 14.9 224
167 65 WR Devery Henderson 4.4 67
168 66 WR Braylon Edwards 4.6 70
169 17 TE Todd Heap - 5.1 77
170 18 TE Jermaine Gresham + 5.1 76
171 19 TE Jeremy Shockey 4.6 69
172 67 WR Roy Williams - 4.8 67
173 68 WR Sammie Stroughter 5.4 81
174 69 WR Anthony Gonzalez ^ 4.1 54
175 70 WR Dexter McCluster + 4.0 61

Top 10: The only change of note is the reversal of Johnson and Jones-Drew atop the board. While I still believe Johnson will miss a game or more this season, it’s too hard for me to ignore what he can do once he gets into the second half of his schedule. When you remove the point advantage I feel MJD has over Johnson in PPR because he is projected to catch more passes, then Johnson becomes the player of choice. Again, it bears repeating that so much of this is hair-splitting amongst the first four backs, so no one should raise an eyebrow when it comes to what order you put them in this season.

11-20: While there was minor shuffling throughout, there is very little change from last week here.

21-50: One of the biggest fallers in this group was Wells, who is a bit too much like Adrian Peterson for the Cardinals’ tastes. According to the team’s website, for all the people who are looking for the reason why Hightower remains Arizona’s starter need look no further than his fumbling woes. What many of us saw last season – that Wells is the superior runner to Hightower – will likely be the case again this season, Wells’ owners will probably need to be patient with him in order to prove he will not fumble like he did four times in just 188 touches in 2009 and once more against the Bears in preseason action last weekend.

The other player I’ll point out this week is McCoy, who goes from mid-range RB2 in PPR to a decent flex option in non-PPR. With the Eagles’ apparent aversion to consistently running the ball, McCoy makes for a pretty big hit-or-miss player this season in non-PPR. Factor in that Philadelphia is turning to Michael Vick in the red zone during the preseason and the team’s usage of Mike Bell as well as Leonard Weaver. With all that hanging over McCoy, it wouldn’t be all that shocking if 2-3 Eagles players had more rushing scores at the end of the year than McCoy.

51-100: At the top of this group is a collection of QBs who I just cannot find it in my heart to trust in 2010 – Rivers, Cutler and Kolb. Rivers has proven himself over the years and probably does not deserve to be thrown in with the other two QBs, but I worry about his ability to produce week in and week out without Vincent Jackson. Furthermore, I can’t see how fill-in LT Brandyn Dombrowski manages to keep Rivers upright all season long although the 6-5, 323-pounder has done a fine job in exhibition play.

As for Cutler, the preseason has already shown what most of the fantasy community feared – the Bears are forcing a bad pass-blocking line to run OC Mike Martz’s downfield passing attack. While it worked well for “The Greatest Show on Turf” ten years ago, part of the reason Martz’s other stays have been short is because he hasn’t been able to bring Orlando Pace and Fred Miller – two OTs in their prime during the Rams’ Super Bowl runs – with him at each stop. Cutler will be a productive fantasy QB in leagues that don’t penalize interceptions too harshly, but what scares me the most about him is the punishment he will take each week as well as a Week 16 showdown against the Jets in Soldier Field. If the weather doesn’t slow down the passing game in that contest, there’s a pretty good chance the opponent will.

Moving on to Kolb, the supporting cast and scheme are set up quite nicely for him to thrive. However, the Eagles’ insistence on pushing Vick onto the field – especially in the red zone – may lead to a lot of disappointed Kolb owners. Without Vick around, Kolb could enjoy a season similar to the one Rodgers had in his first season as a starter, but with Vick stealing 5-10 potentially important snaps each game, it becomes more difficult to think of Kolb as an every-week starter.

Tomlinson makes for an interesting study this season. As I have stated on occasion throughout the summer (on radio or in print), moving from one of the worst run-blocking lines in the league to one of the best makes a huge difference. But will fantasy owners find themselves saying, “it’s just the preseason” in regards to LT’s rebirth? Or will they look at him as a player who will take on the role Leon Washington did last season when Greene is healthy and as a short-term feature back when he is not? I’d be happy to land LT as my RB3 in 12-team leagues, although I’d prefer him as a RB4.

101-175: If my experience is like anyone else’s, Favre is the source of some good debate in each draft. At this point, we know how Favre has proven to us time and again that he can overcome hurdle after hurdle. However, I’m not going to taking a ride on his train this season. While I’m sure many people are viewing him as a low-end fantasy QB1 with hopes he can give them one more season like 2009, the facts are that Minnesota is more like a team destined to miss the playoffs than win a Super Bowl right now. Favre will likely be favoring his ankle all season (that is when defenses aren’t gunning for it), Sidney Rice will miss roughly half the season, Harvin will be a game-to-game decision just about every week and Berrian will likely continue to be inconsistent at best. The offensive line also doesn’t seem near as willing to run-block as they used to be, all of which means the team will hope Favre can save the day. That’s a tall order for any signal-caller and it’s not something I want in my starting fantasy QB, especially one that turns 41 during the season.

Laurence Maroney falls completely off the Big Board this week. As we all know by now, the Patriots’ backfield is just a headache for fantasy owners, so the chances that Maroney will emerge from HC Bill Belichick’s doghouse to be a fantasy asset at some point of this season are pretty good. With that said, very few fantasy titles have been won trying to read the mind of Belichick. Still, as potent as the New England running game is year after year, someone needs to be on this list and Taylor gets the honors as the last RB4 off the board. The most productive rusher from this backfield could just as easily be BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but once again, I’d hate to count on any Patriots RB in any given week.


 Kickers
Rk Pos Player FPts XP FG
1 K Stephen Gostkowski 135 42 31
2 K Mason Crosby 133 46 29
3 K David Akers 129 39 30
4 K Nate Kaeding 129 39 30
5 K Lawrence Tynes 126 39 29
6 K Ryan Longwell 125 44 27
7 K Shayne Graham 121 46 25
8 K David Buehler 119 47 24
9 K Matt Bryant 118 40 26
10 K Rob Bironas 118 34 28
11 K Nick Folk 117 36 27
12 K Jeff Reed 117 39 26
13 K Garrett Hartley 115 46 23
14 K Robbie Gould 114 39 25
15 K Neil Rackers/Kris Brown 114 36 26
16 K Jay Feely 113 38 25

Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks

 Defense/Special Teams
Rk D/ST FPts PA Sk TO TD Bon   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 49ers DST 181 180 43 58 30 50                                  
2 Steelers DST 176 185 50 54 30 42                                  
3 Packers DST 160 265 43 60 36 21                                  
4 Bengals DST 154 238 40 58 30 26                                  
5 Saints D/ST 150 297 36 72 30 12                                  
6 Jets D/ST 149 200 42 48 12 47                                  
7 Vikings DST 145 299 48 56 30 11                                  
8 Eagles DST 143 293 38 56 30 19                                  
9 Raiders DST 139 233 36 58 12 33                                  
10 Colts D/ST 138 258 36 56 24 22                                  
11 Cowboys DST 129 251 42 44 18 25                                  
12 Dolphins DST 129 256 34 54 18 23                                  
13 Ravens DST 129 298 40 50 24 15                                  
14 Giants DST 126 296 44 44 24 14                                  
15 Bears DST 117 322 35 52 24 6                                  
16 Redskins DST 103 282 30 38 18 17                                  

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