In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly is much like trying to blitz Peyton Manning – dangerous and painful. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight. Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

In the sci-fi world, a parallel universe is an alternate reality in which everything that held true in the original reality is turned on its head. Good becomes evil, light becomes dark and hope becomes despair.

As the past weekend came to a close with furious Monday Night Football rally by the Houston Texans that was not to be, it became clear that Week 14 came right out of the mind of a Stephen King novel. The sad part of it all for those of us needing a win to get into the playoffs or to move past the first round in the fantasy playoffs was that most of what we were led to believe we could expect over the course of the season did not come to fruition this week.

For example, Aaron Rodgers entered Week 14 as the top-scoring QB in most fantasy leagues, at least in terms of total points. Riding a four-game string of at least 28.9 fantasy points and entering a matchup that had “monster game” written all over it, Rodgers and the Packers could not manage a single first down on their first five drives of the game, which included two turnovers and three three-and-outs. Green Bay found a bit more success as the second quarter wore on, but any hopes that any Packer player was going to explode against Detroit were promptly squashed near the end of the first half when Rodgers’ head slammed into the turf on a scramble attempt. With this concussion being his second of the season, one has to wonder how likely it is that he will suit up against New England. Furthermore, if Rodgers is out this week, owners of Greg Jennings must be furious as well. As fantasy’s top PPR receiver over the previous three weeks, Jennings is now confronted with the possibility of catching the ball from Matt Flynn against a red-hot Patriots’ team (and Bill Belichick-coached defense) that usually does a good job of taking the opponent’s top weapon away.

After two productive weeks (albeit not quite at the standard he set during the first half of the season), Antonio Gates was starting to give his owners a reason to believe again after a three-week stretch in which he sat out to rest his plantar fascia. After providing every indication that he would not miss such an important divisional game vs. the Chiefs last week, he was a late scratch for the late wave of games on Sunday. Following the blowout win, Gates indicated he doesn’t know what he is going to do yet with his foot – as in whether he should rest it for 2-4 weeks or continue to fight through the pain. I was already a Gates fan prior to this injury, but his pain tolerance level must be legendary. Much like we discussed turf toe injuries in this column in previous weeks, the general fan probably underestimates just how dehabilitating Gates’ injury can be. The idea that he can still separate from defenders, much less run, at this point speaks to the incredible threshold for pain he must possess. Still, bringing it back to the fantasy world, all the pain tolerance in the world doesn’t light up the box score if it finds itself on the inactive list. While the upside for his owners is that San Diego plays on Thursday this week (meaning they will know his status in time to fill his spot on the roster), the downside is that if he wasn’t playing an all-important game on Sunday, he can’t be expected to suit up four days later, especially when the alternative is allowing him three full weeks of rest in advance of a Week 16 matchup in Cincinnati.

All in all, the four position leaders going into Week 14 (Rodgers, Arian Foster, Roddy White or Gates) combined to score zero times last week. In fact, if you had every one of them this week, you likely scored a whopping 34.7 points in PPR formats. (For non-PPR leaguers, that total was closer to 22.7.) And just in case you thought it was I exaggerated the “parallel universe” angle by only mentioning two isolated cases, you thought wrong. (Only in a week such as this one could we have seen the end of Brett Favre’s consecutive-games played streak, which could only happen in a game where the Vikings played a “home” game in Detroit.) From the long-awaited returns of players such as Ryan Torain, Pierre Thomas, Kenny Britt and Owen Daniels to surprise performances of players such as Tim Hightower and Brian Westbrook to the where-have-you-been numbers from players such as Chris Johnson, Week 14 was one in which very little ended up as it appeared entering the weekend.

Hopefully, you remember the rules by now. If not, here you go: five touches/targets is the cutoff at each position.

So much for taking it easy on Ryan Torain and Pierre Thomas after long injury layoffs. Of course, coaches generally can only take it easy on their stud RBs if game circumstances allow them to do so and, in these cases, neither situation played out the way HCs Mike Shanahan or Sean Payton wanted them to play out last week. With regards to Torain, there was no way even Shanahan could pull a runner that was shredding an injury-ravaged Bucs defense to the tune of 158 first-half rushing yards. While it is still hard for me to put a significant amount of trust into Torain in the fantasy playoffs because of his injury history, it was not difficult to see how bad the Cowboys’ run defense was against the Eagles last weekend when they needed to stop the run in order to get the ball back for a potential game-winning drive. With the likelihood that Donovan McNabb will not start in Week 15 growing by the day, Washington will be even more inclined to run the ball this week. If you think Torain can make it through another full game, he’s a strong flex play with the potential for RB2 production this week.

As for Thomas, it has become par for the course that a Saints RB goes down just as one is returning. In the latest reincarnation of this ongoing series, Chris Ivory was tabbed as the lead back with Thomas likely to receive a cameo role while Reggie Bush would return to an 8-to-10 touch RB. As luck would have it, Ivory lasted just seven carries before leaving Week 14 for good with a hamstring injury, allowing Thomas to record 16 touches in his return. Unlike Torain’ situation, the Saints’ backfield doesn’t appear to be one in which a clear lead runner will emerge this season and it isn’t like 2009 when it was becoming clear near the end of the season that Mike Bell wasn’t an effective runner anymore. Ivory has been quite productive in Thomas’ absence and, while it leads to injury, his smash-mouth running style is a great complement to Thomas and Bush. Thus, it is hard to blame Payton when he says – like he did last week – that he has no intention to back off Ivory’s workload just because Thomas is back. Therefore, Thomas owners hoping for a playoff hero may be disappointed if Ivory’s hamstring situation isn’t serious, as it has been reported. And if the crowded backfield situation doesn’t scare his owners, Baltimore (Week 15) and Atlanta (Week 16) possess two of the top six stingiest defenses vs. opposing RBs.

Tim Hightower: A risky proposition.

At first glance, Tim Hightower sure seems like fools’ gold, especially with this season’s edition of the Cardinals’ offense. But a closer look reveals the Arizona RB has registered 15+ touches in four of the last five weeks. In only one of those four high-touch games did Hightower not post double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues. By now, we know Hightower just cannot go very long without fumbling (11 career fumbles – eight lost – in 45 career games), which always make the celebrated TD vulture a candidate for a quick hook by HC Ken Whisenhunt. To that end, the coach said following the Cards’ Week 14 win that Hightower would have been pulled had Beanie Wells not been sick and third-string RB LaRod Stephens-Howling not been “gassed”. This knowledge makes Hightower an extremely high-risk play in the fantasy playoffs, but with a matchup against the offensively-inept Panthers on deck, Arizona should be able to match Carolina run attempt for run attempt. Considering the teams have the friendliest (Cards) and fourth-friendliest (Panthers) defenses vs. opposing RBs, it may be a wise move to slip Hightower into your flex spot. Again, I repeat, he is a high-risk alternative, but in a game that should feature 60-70 running plays and about 40-45 pass attempts, there is potential for four backs to come out of this game with serviceable workloads. And if, by chance, Hightower doesn’t fumble away his chance, he could easily push 20 touches. Given his 0.80 fantasy points/touch, that makes him a decent bet for roughly 16 points in PPR.

If you blinked on Sunday (or had better games to watch), you probably missed the huge contribution Brian Westbrook made in nine first-half touches during the Niners’ whitewashing of the Seahawks. It’s pretty clear that while he isn’t what he once was, he still has something left to give to a team in a limited role. True to his word, HC Mike Singletary is giving Anthony Dixon and Westbrook a “good mixture” of the RB touches in Frank Gore’s absence, which is making the best of a bad situation in San Francisco. Dixon has the talent and size to become a feature back one day, but until that time, why not use one of the best all-purpose backs of his generation in that role? I can’t recommend either RB as anything more than a desperation flex play over the final two weeks of the fantasy season (San Diego in Week 15 has been pretty stout on defense for most of the season; St. Louis in Week 16 has been a very good defense at home), but for those owners who play in Week 17, the Niners’ RBs have a home date vs. Arizona. For those owners who need to play one or the other, Westbrook is the back to own in PPR while both backs carry about the same value in non-PPR, although the veteran is the slightly better play at the moment.

Dwayne Bowe owners, you were forewarned in previous columns about your receiver’s chances of letting you down during fantasy playoff time. It’s not as if I despise Bowe, I ranked him as my #10 WR in PPR and #11 in non-PPR formats during my Big Board series. If Matt Cassel makes it back this week and you survived last week, then you may get decent WR3 production in Week 15 in St. Louis before he squares off against Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan in Week 16. But the fact that Bowe has one catch for three yards in the last two games combined should be a wakeup call for those owners who had hoped to ride his seven-game scoring streak all the way through the rest of the season. Bowe has the talent to carry a passing game; very few players can put up the numbers he did even if the matchups are all soft, like they were during his TD binge. But like most receivers, he needs a credible and consistent threat to emerge so doesn’t always attract the defense’s attention. In time, that threat may end up being Dexter McCluster, Tony Moeaki or both. For the time being, however, when a defense is able to stop the Chiefs’ run game and/or possess a shutdown CB, Bowe becomes a much less attractive fantasy WR.

To be fair, Danny Amendola’s universe shifted two weeks ago, but Sam Bradford’s most consistent option for most of the season has pulled a disappearing act of sorts. While the Wes Welker clone has posted a total of seven targets over the last two weeks combined, Brandon Gibson has hit that mark in each of the past two games. However, it is becoming clear Gibson’s emergence is probably not a fluke; he is fantasy 24th-best WR in PPR scoring over the last five weeks, outperforming the likes of Anquan Boldin and Terrell Owens over that time. Gibson has seven or more targets in five of his last six games and has posted at least 11.4 fantasy points in each of those five contests. Both of the Rams’ remaining opponents (Kansas City – 10th and San Francisco – 12th) are among the 12 friendliest defenses vs. opposing receivers this season, so Gibson isn’t the worst WR3 or flex candidate. However, I’d be a bit leery using him against the Chiefs as he is likely to draw CB Brandon Flowers at least some of the time in coverage; a great deal of Kansas City’s recent struggles against certain WRs have come thanks to the other starting CB, the burnable Brandon Carr. I expect Bradford to have a firm grasp of this knowledge in Week 15, so perhaps Amendola returns to his role of “target monster” for one week unless St. Louis makes it a point to move Gibson around in light of his recent production. It’s something to keep an eye on this week should you be left with an opening at the WR position in Week 16.

It’s pretty clear how much Tennessee values Kenny Britt, but it is not as if Randy Moss’ five catches for 62 yards on three targets per game is doing a lot to alter the thinking. In his first game back against the Colts following a five-week absence, Britt repeatedly found openings in Indy’s defense. While Chris Johnson obviously exploited his matchup, one has to believe his running lanes were a bit wider because of Britt’s presence. Even though it is highly unlikely given OC Mike Heimerdinger’s background of heavy two-TE usage, I’d like to see what the Titans could do offensively if they went to a three-WR, one TE base attack with Britt working out of the slot, Nate Washington and Moss manning the outside spots and Craig Stevens as the regular TE. Because Moss still draws the double team with regularity, it would leave Britt and Washington in single coverage and ensure that Johnson would never face more than a seven-man box. (It’s an idea, although one must wonder at this point if defenses would back off the Moss double team.) Either way, Britt’s owners should not be too dismayed by his 4-39-0 line in Week 14, as the forgiving Texans’ pass defense is on deck. While it’s fairly obvious Kerry Collins is not 100%, he should be able to exploit Houston in much the same way he did Indianapolis with 1 ½ weeks to prepare. If owners are facing some relatively tough WR3 options this week and either own or can acquire Britt, I’d say he may be able to give you a five-catch, 80-yard, one-score outing for your trouble.

Wrapping up the WR portion of this week’s Blitz, allow me to briefly take you through the WR options I would have a hard time trusting this week, aside from the ones I’ve already mentioned above: Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco (the insertion of rookie CB Joe Haden into the lineup has turned the Browns’ pass defense around), all three main Broncos receivers (Kyle Orton has really regressed lately and is now battling arm and rib injuries), Sidney Rice (rookie Joe Webb may be making his first start on MNF and isn’t exactly known for his accuracy), Greg Jennings (Matt Flynn may be starting in place of Aaron Rodgers), Mike Wallace (likely to draw CB Darrelle Revis in coverage) and Michael Crabtree (tough matchup in a passing offense that doesn’t seem to make him the primary option all that often).

***Speaking of the Vikings’ likely starting QB this week (Webb), it is possible that some fantasy football sites may have given him WR eligibility. If that is the case in your league and you are really hurting at receiver, I could understand starting him as a third WR or a flex. Here’s the rub: the Vikings figure to be playing a “home” game in the elements at the University of Minnesota’s new TFC Bank Stadium. Considering the weather and quality of opponent (the Bears), Webb’s upside is probably around 125 yards passing, 40 yards rushing and one score. If you believe Chicago may experience a hangover from its embarrassing home loss vs. New England or that Webb can break a long TD run because of his incredible athleticism, feel free to roll the dice. All I know is that just about every WR with any kind of upside this week would need to be taken before I plugged him into my lineup.

Allow me to rank (by fantasy points/game) the top PPR TEs since Week 11, the week in which all 32 teams returned to action. In order to avoid small sample size bias, I am requiring each player to have played in at least three of the four games:

1. Jason Witten
2. Jacob Tamme
3. Vernon Davis
4. Marcedes Lewis
5. Tony Gonzalez
6. Joel Dreessen
7. Chris Cooley
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Brandon Pettigrew
10. Kevin Boss

Amazingly, over the last four weeks, only eight TEs are averaging double-digit points in PPR! To put that into some perspective, a player needs only two catches for 20 yards and a score or five catches for 50 yards to hit the 10-point mark. It should also be noted that during this time Tamme has been hurt, Davis has been ignored in his own offense to some degree, Lewis TD productions has slowed as the Jags’ running game has taken off and Dreessen was held without a reception last week. In case you were wondering, there is definitely a reason I’ve been promoting one-week options at this position like I have been in recent weeks – it’s because finding production at TE this year is as difficult as it has been in years. It’s the very reason I even considered a 2010 disappointment (Brent Celek) as a decent fantasy playoff option and an injured TE (Owen Daniels) coming off a long injury layoff in last week’s column.

While injuries have played a huge role in the lack of consistent production we are getting at TE, allow me to direct your attention at the catch % stat for the position. Because most TEs are one of their team’s top short and intermediate options in the passing game, it would make sense if they caught substantially more of the passes thrown in their direction than did receivers. Of the 16 TEs and 61 WRs that made the list at their positions, you might be surprised to find out that the average catch rate at TE is 63% and 58% at WR. It probably comes as little surprise then that just seven TEs are above the 63% mark and only two (Witten and Antonio Gates) are significantly above that mark. These numbers may do a bit to illustrate just how down the TE market has become in 2010.

On a personal yet self-deprecating note, I’m really happy when I follow my own advice and, sometimes, I wish I would listen to myself a bit more; other times – as you will see, I should just shut up. In all seriousness, I advised readers last week to secure Daniels for the fantasy playoff run. Against the stingiest defense vs. opposing TEs (Baltimore), Matt Schaub targeted Daniels a rather astounding 11 times, making the few owners that played him quite happy. What I failed to do was secure him in both of the leagues in which I am very TE-needy (just added him in one league last week) and start him, even sitting him down for Ed Dickson in that league. What made this funny (and quite stressful on Monday night as I won by less than two points in that league) was that I advised a caller on my weekly radio spot with WJFK-FM (106.7 The Fan) to play Daniels over Dickson and about three other marginal TE options last Thursday. Hopefully, my TE woes in the one league should be over now, but in the other league I mentioned, I mistakenly followed Celek’s recent production and left Daniels on the waiver wire. Now, I must hope that my blind bid this week is enough to secure Daniels’ services when all but one team has more bid money than I do (incidentally, that team belongs to the Gates’ owner in my league that has no backup TE and can do no more than make two $1 bids the rest of the way). My “backup” waiver-wire options in that big-money league are Boss and Zach Miller, who just happened to produce this past week after I cut both last week.

As we near the end of another fantasy football season, allow me to thank each of you that make writing this column so enjoyable. Next week’s Blitz will be the final one of the season although I will return after a one-week layoff to serve as your fantasy guide through the NFL postseason once again in a column titled “Road to the Super Bowl”. I wish you the best of luck in your fantasy playoffs.

P.S. For those e-mailers who promised me a percentage of your winnings should you claim your league’s title, I expect my cut before New Year’s Day! Seriously, though, be safe and enjoy the holiday season!

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? e-mail me.