The first time I saw it in writing was Shawn Siegele’s Zero
RB, Antifragility and the Myth of Value Based Drafting. “It”
being the potential winning option by just skipping running backs
all together early in the draft and depend on the turnover at
the position to help you bulk up at the position later, while
dominating at wide receiver.
Zero RB really gained steam as a popular draft strategy in 2014.
A year after fantasy owners were still hooked on taking running
backs early, this wide receiver stacking strategy seemed like
a very intriguing option. The problem was, it caught on with a
lot of people, and so the advantages gained by going against the
grain were lost.
Here in 2015, the world has regained some balance. In fact, it
looks like running backs and wide receivers are going off the
board at a similar rate. This might create better opportunities
for utilizing “Zero RB” than last season.
I’m going to explore what a Zero RB draft could look like
in a 2015 PPR league. To do this, I’m going to use the latest
ADP data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and choose from
players available each round. I’ll put myself in the seventh
position so I’m picking in the middle of the pack. In the
early rounds, I will be using FFToday’s
PPR projections and picking straight off the list. In the
later rounds of the draft, I will take things like situation,
upside and roster construction into greater consideration than
straight projections. Pretend a starting lineup for this league
calls for one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers,
one FLEX, one defense and one kicker.
Here we go!
A.J. Green's ADP in the middle of Round
2 makes it easy to implement at WR-WR start to your draft.
This is about as good as it gets for early wide receiver drafting.
I would love to have a start like this in a draft where I’m
not even pulling the Zero RB card. In FFToday’s PPR projections,
Odell Beckham Jr. is at the top of the wide receiver heap, while
A.J. Green comes in fifth. Any team pairing Beckham Jr. and Green
as their top two wide outs will have a huge leg up on the majority
of their league at the position.
I didn’t intend for this draft to fall so perfectly, but
I believe this four-round start is brilliant for a Zero RB strategy.
In 2014, DeAndre Hopkins showed what he’s capable of with
the Texans, and now with Andre Johnson gone, Hopkins might be
the receiver with a WR2 ADP that has the greatest chance of making
the leap to WR1 status. That kind of upside as your WR3 is fantastic.
At WR4 on this mythical team, we have Julian Edelman, the pass
catching machine of the New England Patriots. Over the last two
years as a starter, Edelman has averaged 98.5 receptions per season.
Last year, he had 92 receptions in just 14 games. A receiver with
clear 100-catch potential as your fourth wide receiver
seems incredible. You have to love how Zero RB is looking right
now.
In the interest of trying to win other positions while forgoing
early running backs, I decided to grab the number two tight end
in FFToday’s PPR projections: Greg Olsen. He’s the
fourth tight end off the board in this draft after Rob Gronkowski,
Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. I think if you miss out on any
of these top four tight ends, you’re waiting until the double
digit rounds to grab one. After this pick, I now have four of
FFToday’s top 12 projected PPR wide receivers and a top-two
tight end.
Round six is where I finally pull the trigger on a running back.
The biggest fear with LeGarrette Blount is the Patriots doing
Patriot things and shuffling up their running backs out of nowhere.
However, if Blount sticks as New England’s starter after
his Week 1 suspension, he should provide some sense of stability
to a position that was ignored through the first five rounds.
Here we have two running backs stuck in potentially frustrating
fantasy situations. Crowell and Freeman are each being listed
as their team’s starters for the time being, but both could
lose that title in an instant. Since we are in such dire need
of running backs in this Zero RB draft, I think it’s best
to play and hope at least one sticks. Even if one or neither is
the long-term starter, they should both be involved enough to
contribute to your lineup. Ideally one or both of these players
will hit, or work as good enough fill-ins until you land a big
ticket waiver pickup at the position later in the season.
Being able to nab a guy like Bishop Sankey in the 9th round of
a draft is a Zero RB dream. Sankey sits at the top of the Titans
depth chart, and even though fantasy owners are starting to give
up on him, Tennessee has not. He was a disappointment in his rookie
year, but an NFL starter is an NFL starter. He has the potential
to be a weekly fantasy starter based on volume alone, and any
flashes of the talent that made him the first running back selected
in the NFL draft in 2014 could make for some intriguing upside.
Here’s an interesting thing about the Zero RB strategy:
it kind of forces the fantasy owner utilizing it to wait on a
quarterback. Barring a great value on an elite quarterback, you
aren’t taking one in the first five rounds. Afterwards,
you may find yourself in a minor panic trying to cobble together
a group of running backs. Suddenly, you’re in the 10th round
without a quarterback. Luckily for this draft, the number nine
quarterback in FFToday’s projections is still available.
If I didn’t get a quarterback at this point, I would have
been just as happy getting someone like Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater
or Colin Kaepernick a round or two later.
This Zero RB roster is very top heavy at wide receiver, but still
could use some depth. I was surprised to find a guy of Torrey
Smith’s stature sitting available in this mock exercise.
I’m sure he’s going this low based on doubts about
his role on his new team, but he was never a true target hog in
the past. Smith has finished in the top 30 at wide receiver in
PPR every year of his NFL career, and I doubt the 49ers brought
him in to be an afterthought. If Smith were not available here,
I’d still want to keep an eye out for other receivers with
upside around this spot. With the receiver strength already on
the roster, you have room to try to hit it big with your later
round wide receiver picks.
Roy Helu is an ideal late-round running back in a PPR league.
He should be useful from Week 1 with his likely involvement in
the passing game. Helu can very easily be in the mix with Danny
Woodhead and Darren Sproles as a PPR specialist, but at a cheaper
price (Woodhead is going in early-round 8 and Sproles in late-round
10 in PPR ADP). Unlike those two, he has the upside of possibly
taking the starting job for himself. A decent floor and an unknown
ceiling in a 12th round pick makes me feel a lot better about
this Zero RB squad.
When Kenny Stills signed with the Dolphins in March, I
explained why there’s no reason Stills can’t return
WR2 value in 2015. Since that time, the Dolphins signed Greg Jennings
and drafted DeVante Parker. The extra wide receivers joining Stills
in Miami could cause some target trouble, but as of this moment,
he’s still listed as a starter. Being my WR6 and not immediately
needed, the 13th round seems like a good time to take a chance
that my March article proves to be prophetic.
Jerick McKinnon is the type of high upside backup I would look
into targeting near the end of a Zero RB draft. Since you’re
starting a year without any true studs at the position, drafting
players late that have a clear path to stardom is a good idea.
Of course, there’s a decent chance you are eventually forced
to drop a guy like McKinnon when you need roster space, but if
something happens to the player in front of him (in this case,
Adrian Peterson), you’re sitting on a player with RB2 upside.
I am a big fan of the way this worked out. This is about as strong
as a fantasy wide receiver group can look in the preseason, and
owning Olsen should mean never worrying about tight end outside
of one bye week. I ended up with Rivers at quarterback, but as
I mentioned before, there are plenty of options in rounds 10-12
to fill that spot after focusing on catching up at running back.
As for the running backs, waiting on them will likely leave you
with a group similar to this. They each could wind up being wild
disappointments, but you only need two to hit to survive at the
position through the fantasy season. With no immediate need to
worry about wide receivers or tight ends, you can focus most of
your attention on trying to find the Justin Forsett or C.J. Anderson-type
running backs that become available during the season.
I wouldn’t suggest ever entering a draft with a plan to
stick to a strict draft strategy, but if the draft starts unfolding
in a way that presents strong wide receiver values at all of your
early round picks, don’t be afraid to go all-in on Zero
RB.
