Jameis Winston is going to be the Saints’ Week 1 starter
at quarterback. There, I said it. Of course, I don’t really
know that. No one does, with the possible exception of HC Sean
Payton. We’ve heard all the usual pre-camp proclamations
about open competitions and guys earning their spot in a post-Drew
Brees world. But we’ve also gotten a lot of indications
out of New Orleans that Payton and company feel that Winston learned
a lot and matured a lot in one year in the quarterback room with
Brees.
The truth is, unless there’s a major change in scheme coming
(which is never out of play with the creative mind of Sean Payton),
Winston makes the most sense. As well as Taysom Hill played in
relief of an injured Brees last season, Winston is the more polished
pocket passer, has the stronger arm, and has more command of the
reads in the passing game than Hill at this point. Word is that
Winston has done a lot of work on his accuracy, particularly in
the short and intermediate game that’s so important to the Saints
attack, and ball protection has been drilled into his head over
the past year. Unless he falls on his face during camp, it’s hard
to envision a scenario where he doesn’t at least get the first
shot.
With that being said, Hill will be a factor in this offense,
and fantasy owners can almost count on his package being expanded
from the Brees days. That means plenty of 3rd down work and lots
of red zone and goal line play. That will obviously significantly
cut into Winston’s fantasy value, as will the two-headed running
game of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray, which I expect to be
featured more with the departure of Brees.
In the end, even if Winston wins the job, it’s not going
to mean much for fantasy owners who should really be looking in
places other than New Orleans for their quarterback.
Despite all the Jameis Winston love above, the real win for fantasy
owners would be if Taysom Hill gets hot right out of the gate
this summer and wins the starting QB job. His athletic ability
and playmaking skills as a runner make him an ideal dual threat
in today’s NFL if he can polish up his skills in the passing
game, and he has the ability to score from just about anywhere
on the field, particularly in the red zone.
The argument for Hill begins with the fact that he was the one
who got the ball from HC Sean Payton when Drew Brees went down
with an injury for four games in 2020. He availed himself pretty
well in that stretch, completing 70% of his passes and averaging
about 7.2 yards per attempt – not bad for a guy who isn’t
back there a whole lot. He also threw four touchdown passes, averaged
over 52 rushing yards per game and ran for another two scores
while leading the Saints to a 3-1 record. However, he turned the
ball over five times, throwing two interceptions and losing three
of six fumbles.
He’ll have to clean that up, obviously. But if he does,
and makes progress with his reads in the passing game and his
ability to play from the pocket, he could become a viable QB1
option in Payton’s offense. But until he’s named the
starter, his only real fantasy value is as a sort of flex option
in certain matchups.
After a 7-9 season in 2016, Saints HC Sean Payton stepped back
and re-evaluated his offense. The result was a departure from
the “Drew Brees Air Show” and a more concerted effort
in the run game. The following season, New Orleans featured a
much more balanced attack with almost 450 attempts and their first
2,000-yard rushing effort in recent memory. The trend would continue
in 2018 with nearly 475 carries, and the Saints haven’t
won less than 11 games in a season since, including last year,
when Brees missed four games due to injury and the Saints rushed
for 2,200+ yards.
It’s no coincidence that this transformation has coincided
with Alvin Kamara’s arrival in the Superdome. With his quickness,
burst, and ridiculous change of direction skills, he’s tremendous
in space, and his ability as a receiver makes him a dangerous
two-way threat. While he’s never posted a 1,000-yard rushing
season, he has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 102.7 total yards
per game for his career. He breaks more tackles than most people
realize and can be a dangerous weapon around the goal line as
a result. It shows in his 58 TD’s from scrimmage over the
last four years.
Fantasy owners should expect a heavier reliance on the run game
from the Saints this year, especially early on as they determine
who and what comes next at QB. Kamara will be the primary weapon
in that attack, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see
him get north of 200 carries. If Taysom Hill wins the starting
job, that could signal a problem for his receiving numbers as
his targets dropped significantly with Hill behind center in 2020,
but Kamara is a clear RB1 and potentially a top ten pick in your
draft.
A more powerful tackle to tackle runner than Alvin Kamara, Latavius
Murray still has the vision and athleticism to find the seam,
cut, and get upfield. He’s also a capable receiver, and once in
space, can be a playmaker. With New Orleans likely leaning more
heavily on the run game early in the season as the QB battle between
Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill sorts itself out, Murray figures
to build on his 146 carries and 26 targets in 2020. But while
he will get some regular run in the offense, Kamara will be the
lead dog. Murray is worth a late round pick as an RB2/RB3 who
will put up some numbers week to week. But he’s a certain fantasy
starter if and when Kamara is out of the lineup.
Thomas’ 2020 season seemed lost from the start. After suffering
a Week 1 ankle injury against Tampa, he was out of the lineup
until Week 9. But even on his return, it was clear he wasn’t
the same guy, recording just two 100-yard games and failing to
score a single regular season touchdown. He did not have the same
rapport with QB Drew Brees either.
But with Brees riding off into retirement, and Thomas hopefully
returning to full health (he was scheduled to have surgery on
his ankle this offseason, but there’s been no confirmation
that actually happened), there may be some good news on the horizon
for Thomas owners. The former Pro Bowler’s two 100-yard
efforts and his three highest target totals came with Taysom Hill
under center.
No matter who wins the Jameis Winston-Taysom Hill QB competition,
a healthy Michael Thomas is the best receiving option on the team
and a worthy WR1. But the situation bears watching. If Hill comes
out on top, it could be a boost for Thomas, who has thrived as
a catch and run threat in the short to intermediate passing game.
Entering his fourth NFL season, Smith is a big play, downfield
threat who may be one of the few receivers who could benefit from
the departure of Drew Brees. He’s coming off a career year,
but no matter who wins the Saints QB battle this summer, Taysom
Hill and Jameis Winston both have stronger arms than late-career
Brees and could unlock him as a stretch the field option in 2021…if
Payton makes that part of the New Orleans attack.
He looks like a favorite to be the No.2 WR behind Michael Thomas
and is worth a late-round flyer to see how his role develops in
the offense.
Harris is flat out fast, with game-changing deep speed, but has
made his biggest NFL impact as a return man. The Saints unleashed
him on the Bears in last season’s Wild Card Game and he
recorded seven catches for a season-high 83 yards.
The good news for Harris is that the Saints receiving corps looks
to be wide open behind Michael Thomas, so he’ll get a chance
to compete for snaps. After that, we’ll have to see what
this offense looks like without Drew Brees before we tag him with
any real fantasy value.
TE Nick Vannett
(2020 TE Rank – No. 68, 1.1 FPts/G)
Vannett is now with his fourth team in six years, and there seems
to be legitimate reason for that. He’s caught more than 20 passes
in a season just once in his NFL career. He’s a solid all-around
TE with some receiving skills, but the best thing going for him
in New Orleans right now is that there aren’t many other TE’s
on the roster. With Jared Cook gone and his backup from a year
ago, Josh Hill also departed, Vannett has as good a chance as
anyone to succeed at this point. But he’s not a fantasy consideration
until we see how all of this comes together on offense.
TE Adam Trautman
(2020 TE Rank – No. 59, 3.3 FPts/G)
Trautman is a guy with some upside that we can get behind. He’s
a former QB and basketball player with speed, quickness, and athleticism.
He’s also got soft hands and a willingness to go up and
compete for balls, which can lead to some highlight reel catches
and a catch radius that any QB would love.
He flashed a bit in 2020, catching 15 of his 16 targets, nine
of them for first downs. While he’s developing the physical
side of his game, he’s tough and competitive and looks like
a receiver on the field. He’s got “breakout”
written all over him in 2021, and he’s a guy I’ll
definitely have on my watch list.
