It’s that time of year when most of the outliers—the
one-hit wonders and short-term slumpers—start to regress
toward their respective means, making it easier to assess true
longer-term value. By Week 5, you mostly are what you’re
going to be, and in McLaurin’s case, that seems to be the
most productive rookie wide receiver. Through four games, the
former Buckeye is averaging 12.2 FPts/G, the exact same rate as
Adam Thielen and Mike Evans, two of the league’s elite pass-shaggers,
and a couple ticks better than Julio Jones, a consensus Top 3
guy. He’s doing it, moreover, despite having played with
three different QBs already and facing some of the league’s
stronger defensive outfits (Philly, Chicago, and NE). Jay Gruden’s
out and Bill Callahan’s in, but I don’t suspect anything
changes in terms of the rook’s usage moving forward. Start
him in the JV game.
The most targeted TEs through Week 5 are Evan Engram, Zach Ertz,
and Travis Kelce, which surprises probably nobody. The next two
names on that list likely would, however: Darren Waller and Austin
Hooper. Waller’s on bye after a surprisingly successful
trip across the pond, but Hooper’s back in action this coming
Sunday and facing an Arizona team that’s surrendered 16.4
FPts/G and six TDs to the position so far. That’s easily
a league worst, meaning Hooper could be a huge part of the Falcons’
game plan. He certainly has been so far (20 targets the last two
weeks alone) and is nearly halfway to his career high of 71 receptions
not even a third of the way through the campaign. I wish I’d
have grabbed him when he was floating around on waivers, but it’s
too late now. Start the other Stanford TE Sunday.
Hooper’s Falcons have allowed 31.7 FPts/G and 10 touchdowns
to opposing wideouts thus far. That should be music to the ears
of Larry Fitzgerald owners. Arizona’s future Hall of Famer
is 36 years old, long past the age when wide receivers typically
produce at a high level, but there he sits at WR19, averaging 9.6
FPts/G, five weeks into his 16th NFL season. If he keeps it up,
that would be his best mark since 2015. He absolutely could in the
WR-friendly Kliff Kingsbury offense and if he stays healthy, a big
if at his advanced age, but something his much younger running mate
is currently struggling with. Christian Kirk is again no sure thing
to play on Sunday, meaning Fitz could be the focal point of the
Cards passing game. He’s a strong WR1 candidate against Atlanta’s
terrible secondary. Start him.
I might’ve mentioned this a time or two, but I watch a
TON of college football. I should say I watch a ton of FBS football,
which is probably why I’d never heard of Devlin Hodges prior
to last Sunday, when he replaced Mason Rudolph late in Pittsburgh’s
divisional showdown with Baltimore. Hodges hails from tiny Samford
University in Homewood AL, where he completed over 70% of his
passes and averaged nearly 400 passing yards/game as a senior
last year. Rudolph remains in the concussion protocol at press
time, the victim of a scary Earl Thomas hit, and all signs point
to Hodges getting the nod against Los Angeles. Considering he
wasn’t even on the Steelers’ roster when the season
started, it’s hard to know what to expect from him and his
receivers, one of whom draws Casey Hayward in coverage (JuJu).
Hard pass for me.
Ginn missed the Week 2 trip to Los Angeles that cost New Orleans
their franchise signal caller, but has nevertheless suffered the
consequences of that loss ever since. With Drew Brees at the helm
in Week 1, the 13-year vet reeled in seven receptions for 101
yards. With Teddy Bridgewater manning the Saints’ ship in
Weeks 3-5, he’s managed only seven more receptions for 69
total yards. Last week’s touchdown grab was certainly nice,
but Bridgewater seems more disinclined than most NFL QBs to drive
the ball down the field, where Ginn does most of his best work.
I don’t see the aged speed demon suddenly becoming a featured
performer in New Orleans’ offense and it’s possible
this week’s opponent, Jacksonville, will get its best defender,
Jalen Ramsey, back. Stick with Michael Thomas and avoid the fringe
fantasy options surrounding him in the Saints’ WR room.
Davante Adams is still iffy as I finish this column off and if
that doesn’t change heading into the weekend, it’s
going to be hard to project the Pack in Week 6. It already will
be due to the Monday night effect, but I’m not sure it matters
in the case of Allison. If Adams is back, he likely becomes an
afterthought, just as he has been most of the season (10 receptions
for 104 yards). If Adams sits again, there’s still no guarantee
Allison sees an uptick in activity. He was targeted six times
against the Cowboys in Week 5, slightly more than usual, but only
hauled in two balls, slightly less than he’d averaged to
that point. Any Green Bay receiver is a threat to score with Aaron Rodgers slinging it around, but I’d feel much more comfortable
with MVS. Keep Geronimo reserved.
