Nobody needs to be told starting
Russell Wilson, Todd Gurley, or Antonio Brown is a good idea.
Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position, though,
unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This is where
the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain basement
QB to use and which to ignore on Wilson’s bye week? Let’s
talk. Looking for solutions at running back because Gurley is
a game-time decision? Look no further. Need to know which of your
unproven targets to start and which to sit since you ignored Brown
and went RB-RB-Gronk in your first three rounds? You get the idea.
Past results may not guarantee future success, but ignoring them
entirely can ruin your Sundays in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays
and Thursdays). Read on for a little history and, hopefully, a
little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
Change for the Better? Aaron Rodgers heads
into Week 14 as the QB13 in fantasy points per game.
Grab a Helmet
Aaron
Rodgers v. ATL: I never get to write about my favorite
player, one of the most automatic of starts in the business, but
these aren’t normal times in Titletown. For the first time since
he became the Pack’s starting signal caller, A-Rodge will be coached
by someone other than Mike McCarthy, whose Green Bay reign ended
suddenly and sadly following an inexplicable loss to Arizona.
Some suspect Rodgers of engineering his coach’s ouster and the
tension between the two was certainly palpable all season. Regardless
how it went down, all fantasy GMs want to know is whether the
future Hall of Famer can be trusted with a new coach calling shots
and a too-youthful receiving corps. For one week, at least, the
answer is a resounding yes. Freed of the stress and with nothing
at stake, expect the Head Cheese to grill a sorry Atlanta secondary
this coming Sunday.
Lamar
Jackson @ KC or Josh
Allen v. NYJ: The two rooks appear to be vying for
the Blake Bortles Memorial Fantasy-Trumps-Reality MVP award this
season. Though Jackson doesn’t yet qualify, his 73.5 passer rating
would rank 32nd overall at the position and he’d still be looking
down at Allen, who brings up the QB rear with a paltry 66.3 rating.
Yet, over the last three weeks, the two greenhorns rank 2nd (Allen)
and 15th (Jackson) in FPts/G. Yes, that means only Patrick Mahomes
has outscored Buffalo’s new franchise man, the least efficient
passer in the NFL, since Week 12. Passer rating doesn’t account
for rushing stats, of course, which is what makes the two so valuable
and their fantasy floors surprisingly respectable. In the last
two weeks, they’ve combined to average 14 FPts/G…NOT INCLUDING
PASSING STATS! Love the added rushing dimension and love the plus
matchups. Start them both.
Mitchell
Trubisky v. LAR: We haven’t seen Chicago’s dual-threat
dealer in several weeks now, but all signs point to him being
back under center for the Bears this Sunday night. That’s good
news if you managed to survive with a stopgap option down the
regular season stretch. Though Trubisky’s posted a few clunkers
(fewer than 12 points in Weeks 3 and 9), he’s still averaging
25.8 FPts/g, or more than Philip Rivers has EVER averaged in 15
NFL seasons. The best part about Trubisky’s return is that it
couldn’t come against a more inviting/susceptible opponent. The
Rams may still be the odds-on favorites to represent the NFC in
Super Bowl LII, but they’ll have to do it the way Kurt Warner
and Co. did back at the turn of the century. Since Week 9, LA’s
surrendered 33.3 FPts/g, easily the most in the league. Get Mitch
back in your lineup.
Grab a Clipboard
Marcus
Mariota v. JAX (Thu): Before you start sniping in the
comments section, consider two facts: 1) Only 3 of the current
Top 10 QBs tallied Top 10-worthy points in Week 13 (Mahomes, Newton,
and Rivers).; and 2) Mariota has been a Top 10 performer since
Week 9. In other words, Week 13 was brutal and you could have
done a lot worse than starting the former Duck (GO DUCKS!), who
notched 26.4 points in the come-from-behind win over the Jets.
That said, even a blind supporter can recognize Marcus is very
inconsistent, prone to killer turnovers (an early pick-six against
NY), and still ranks behind Ryan Fitzpatrick in total fantasy
points this year. Fitzpatrick hasn’t played since Week 11. After
watching the Jags shut out a red-hot Andrew Luck and the Colts
offense, I’m inclined to believe cooling off a similarly hot Mariota
shouldn’t be too tall an order.
Matthew
Stafford @ ARZ: The Cardinals have faced a murderer’s
row of opposing slingers thus far (Trubisky, Goff, Wilson, Cousins,
Mahomes, Rivers, and Rodgers), but have somehow managed to rank
an impressive 3rd overall against the position. Game script has
certainly been a factor—Arizona consistently plays from way behind—but
a 7.2 yds/attempt mark, 9th overall, speaks to some ability in
the back end. Patrick Peterson, the most able of Arizona’s DBs,
is likely to shadow Detroit’s only explosive WR weapon, Kenny
Golladay, come Sunday and methinks this could put a lid on Stafford’s
overall production. His only other options are dink-and-dunkers
Bruce Ellington and RB Theo Riddick. Barring a late-season resurgence,
Stafford is headed for his worst statistical season since 2009,
his rookie year. I’ve been fading him all year long and there’s
no reason to get excited now that it’s crunch time. Sit him in
Week 14.
Case
Keenum @ SF: The Broncos are, shockingly, in the hunt
heading into Week 14 and that’s likely because Vance Joseph
et al. figured something out about their new quarterback: The
more Keenum throws the football, the less likely his team is to
win games. In six Denver losses, Minnesota’s former one-hit
wonder has averaged 39 passing attempts and 19 FPts/G. In six
Bronco wins, he’s averaged just 29 attempts (a 25% volume
reduction) and 16.7 FPts/G. Clearly, Phillip Lindsay and a still-capable
defense are the recipe for success in the Mile High City, especially
now that the Broncos will be without BOTH of the top receivers
they started the season with. Demaryius Thomas was shipped off
to Houston a couple weeks back and now Emmanuel Sanders appears
to be done for the year (torn Achilles). You probably weren’t
starting Keenum anyway, but don’t be swayed by the juicy
matchup.
