I told you last summer
my hit rate on Risers had really slumped in 2022 and 2023 (16%),
but we’re back at par after a solid 2024 (four out of nine
for 44%, just north of my all-time rate of ~40% since 2011). This
year’s crop features some obvious candidates and a few less
obvious ones. However, it’s never as easy as it looks. Even
when, say, a two-time RB1 is poised to rise up and reclaim his rightful
glory, the messy business of controlled NFL violence can doom his
prospects. Quick spoiler alert: That running back is not featured
or even mentioned in this year’s edition of the Risers series.
Let’s find out who else is well positioned to leap into the
Top 10 ranks in 2025.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy RBs from last season…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Chuba
Hubbard, CAR: Style points are fun
and all, but you win fantasy chips with real points, the kind
guys like Chuba Hubbard reliably churn out while the rest of the
fantasy community focuses on bigger names and sexy rooks. We’ll
get to those sexy rooks in a second, but can we first stop to
appreciate what Hubbard accomplished in 2024? He was only supposed
to keep a seat warm for presumed starter, Jonathon Brooks, whom
the Panthers nabbed in the second round of the 2024 draft. Instead,
he tallied 1,195 rushing yards (eighth overall) and 10 touchdowns
plus one more as a receiver. That was good enough for a RB12 finish
playing for one of the league’s worst teams.
Carolina may not be a lot better in 2025, but there are signs
things might be pointing in the right direction. First, Bryce
Young showed he’s not a complete bust in the second half
of the 2024 campaign, throwing for at least one TD in every single
game from Week 8 on. This despite throwing none in the first seven
weeks and only 11 in all of 2023 over 15 starts. Then the Panthers
went and added a true WR1 candidate in Tetairoa McMillan. The
rangy Arizona product should help Young continue his upward trajectory.
Could Carolina’s offense be respectable this year?
If it is, Hubbard will still be its backbone. Brooks is slated
to miss his entire sophomore season after missing almost all of
his freshman campaign, leaving Rico Dowdle as Chuba’s primary
backup. Dowdle was surprisingly good in 2024 as Dallas’
lead back. He’s always been better suited for a secondary
role, however, and is unlikely to threaten Hubbard’s existing
workload (250 carries last season). There are more exciting options,
but fewer better ones. Go get Hubbard.
Ashton
Jeanty, LV: We promised sexy rooks
so we give you sexy rooks! The hype train’s been barreling down
the tracks since Vegas selected Jeanty with the sixth pick in
April’s draft and I’ll be danged if I’m gonna be the one to step
in front of it. If it’s hype you’re selling, it’s hype I’m buying!
To be fair, Jeanty was the cornerstone of my college fantasy squad
the last couple years, so I spent many an evening watching him
slalom through Mountain West defenses. Even when he stepped up
in class, the results were devastating. As in almost literally.
In an early season visit to Eugene, the kid from Frisco nearly
derailed my Ducks’ perfect regular season before it got
started, rushing for 192 yards and three scores in a narrow 37-34
defeat. He looked like the best player on the field because he
was the best player on the field. Bear in mind Oregon had 10 players
drafted along with Jeanty, a program record.
While the former Bronco’s skill set is compelling enough,
what really excites fantasy GMs this year is Jeanty’s franchise
and coach fit. OK, so the Raiders were atrocious and a rookie
RB isn’t going to change that overnight. However, nobody
loves running the football more than Pete Carroll. In his fourteen
seasons as Seattle’s head man, the Seahawks ranked Top 3
in rushing attempts six times. When Coach Carroll finds a guy
he can trust to lug the rock (e.g. Marshawn Lynch), he lets him
do that a lot. Oh, did I mention Jeanty can catch a little too?
He didn’t feature much as a receiver in 2024, but tallied
569 receiving yards (and five scores) a year prior. Yup, that
led all NCAA running backs that season. This kid is special.
Omarion
Hampton, LAC: Hey, I did say sexy
rooks, as in more than one. It’s not that common for rookie
runners to crack the Top 10, let alone two of them. It isn’t
completely unprecedented, though. Jonathan Taylor and James Robinson
(remember him?) pulled it off as recently as 2020. Jeanty feels
like an easy choice for inclusion in the positional penthouse.
Hampton, not so much. There are a couple things working in his
favor, however.
First, if Pete Carroll has any competition for most run-friendly
HC, it’s Jim Harbaugh. We’ve talked about this already
this summer, but it bears repeating: This former quarterback loves,
with a capital “L,” to pound the pigskin. So does
his OC Greg Roman, who orchestrated four Top 3 rushing offenses
in as many seasons back in Baltimore. It’s true the Ravens
had a unique talent under center, but the Chargers aren’t
going to suddenly resurrect their Air Coryell roots with Harbaugh
and Roman doing the game planning. Expect lots of running, lots
of play-action, and overall balance in 2025.
Second, Hampton’s pathway to an even larger touch share
in LA is starting to look guaranteed. The Bolts’ other big
off-season acquisition, Najee Harris, is still recovering from
an unfortunate fireworks mishap (why, people?), and his timeline
for returning to camp isn’t certain. Harbaugh characterized
it thusly when asked if Harris would be ready for Week 1: “There’s
a chance…I don’t comment because I’m not a doctor.”
Hmmm. That sounds like coachspeak for “I have no earthly
idea and stop asking me, would ya’?” Harris will return
eventually, at which point Hampton won’t have to shoulder
most of the load. But he’s able because he’s a big
back who can catch the ball too. Gimme a three-down back playing
for Harbaugh any ol’ day.