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Joseph Hutchins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 10 Newcomers - Quarterbacks
Which QBs will rise into the fantasy top ten in 2016?
8/15/16
QBs | RBs | WRs

A couple weeks back, we chatted about some quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers that could topple from the ranks of the fantasy Top 10 this coming season. We’ll shift our focus this week to the players who look like good bets to replace them.

Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard scoring.

A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…

  Top 10 Quarterbacks - 2015
Rank Player
1 Cam Newton
2 Tom Brady
3 Blake Bortles
4 Russell Wilson
5 Carson Palmer
6 Drew Brees
7 Eli Manning
8 Matthew Stafford
9 Kirk Cousins
10 Philip Rivers


Quarterbacks Most Likely to Rise in 2016:

Derek Carr, OAK: I was a disappointing 2-for-9 in this space last August – only Cam Newton and Adrian Peterson made the predicted Top 10 jump – so I should probably play it safe and nominate three established studs primed for a 2016 rebound: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck. I SHOULD but you already know I won’t. What fun would that be? Besides, if 2015 is any indication (six dropouts), there could be several more signal callers crashing the party this season.

Derek “Don’t Call Me David” Carr looks to be the most likely of these other potential party crashers. His breakout 2015 campaign (3,987 yards, 32 TDs, and 341.2 FPts) gave long-suffering Raiders fans a reason to get excited about football in the East Bay…until Oakland ownership swiftly squelched that optimism with talk of moving the franchise to Vegas. You take the good with the bad when you root for the Silver and Black, right? Carr provided much more of the former than the latter last season, throwing for multiple TDs in 11 games and three or more in 5 of them. If he’d avoided a premature exit against Cincinnati in the opener (just 3.9 FPts prior to a bruised thumb), we probably wouldn’t be talking about him here.

The Raiders’ brass rode this swell of optimism into the off-season and added a couple offensive pieces that should complement their studly young slinger. First, they spent $60 million to lure Kelechi Osemele away from Baltimore, a versatile G/T who will help keep Carr’s jersey clean. Second, they drafted DeAndre Washington, a Texas Tech RB/dynamo who will diversify the offense, especially on third down. Throw in Amari Cooper, Latavius Murray, and Clive Walford, as existing young weapons, and Carr seems to have the talent in place to really wow in 2016.

Ryan Tannehill's low-end QB1 ceiling could get a boost from new head coach Adam Gase.


Ryan Tannehill, MIA: Quarterback whisperer/offensive wunderkind du jour, Adam Gase, has moved on from Chicago to South Florida and instantly becomes the NFL’s youngest head man. Many believe he’ll be able to correct the course of Tannehill’s wayward career, just as he did for Jay Cutler in the Windy City. Others believe there’s no fixing what’s wrong with Miami’s $77 million dollar man and that the Fish will continue floating around in a sea of mediocrity. I guess you could say I’m somewhere between the Gase fanboys and Miko Grimes, believing Tannehill to be an average QB who could nevertheless perform at an above-average level with the proper tutelage.

Let’s start with the defects. He holds onto the ball too long and doesn’t demonstrate good pocket awareness. He’s not all that accurate when he finally lets it fly and is especially iffy when throwing the ball deep. He allegedly lacks some basic leadership qualities and hasn’t commanded the respect of all his Miami teammates. Wait, I’m supposed to be making a case for him as a Top 10 QB, right?

Obvious warts notwithstanding, Tannehill is an exceptional athlete for the position and is one of the only players I know who’s successfully made the transition from college wide receiver to starting NFL quarterback. He’s averaged over 20 FPts/G three years running, moreover, despite working with three different offensive coordinators in four years. Clyde Christensen will be his fourth and early word out of Dolphins camp is that Tannehill’s being allowed to do something he hasn’t thus far in his career: audible at the line. That freedom, an emphasis on getting the ball out quick (a trademark of Gase’s offenses), and a healthy DeVante Parker could all help the fifth-year QB get his career pointed in the right direction.

Jameis Winston, TB or Marcus Mariota, TEN: Like most headstrong and highly opinionated individuals, I don’t like admitting I’m wrong. Wrong I was, however, about Jameis Winston’s rookie season. I told you before it started the Bucs had picked the wrong Heisman winner in the 2015 draft and that the former Duck (GO DUCKS!) would outperform him. Statistically speaking, at least, that proved completely false as he outscored his Rose Bowl nemesis by almost 100 fantasy points. Big swing and a miss, right?

Actually, I may have foul-tipped that baby. Super Mariota’s promising debut campaign was spoiled by injury, of course, and the two rooks tracked pretty closely on a points-per-game basis. Winston ended up averaging 21.7 per contest (throwing every single Buccaneers pass) while Tennessee’s new triggerman averaged 21.2. If you take out his significantly shortened Week 15 appearance, though (just six pass attempts), Marcus actually averaged closer to 23 points per tilt, precisely what Eli Manning, the 10th most productive QB, averaged on the year. Hmmm.

Winston could still validate my low expectations and turn into Josh Freeman 2.0, sure. Mariota could, similarly, get hurt again or simply regress in his second season guiding Mike Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” attack (whatever that is). I just don’t think either of those two scenarios are very likely. In fact, I’m betting at least one of the two cracks the ranks of the Top 10 in his sophomore season, hence this joint, hedge-my-bets recommendation. Winston showed up to camp looking leaner and meaner and should build on his impressive rookie totals. Mariota should do the same now that Tennessee’s shot callers have invested heavily in some offensive pieces (DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, and Jack Conklin) to help him out. These guys ooze upside and the price is affordable so go get ‘em.

Next: Running Backs