One of the toughest challenges in drafting a fantasy football team
is deciding between two players who seem to offer nearly identical
value. Knowing how to break this tie is crucial, as many picks ultimately
come down to a choice between Player A and Player B. This article
aims to not only highlight pairs of players with similar value for
the 2025 season but also to explore strategies for resolving these
tricky dilemmas.
Our first installment examines two quarterbacks entering into
their second NFL season.
Caleb Williams
was hyped as a ‘can’t-miss’ quarterback prospect, expected to
quickly evolve into not only a top-ten NFL QB but also a top-ten
fantasy producer. However, his 2024 season was a mix of promise
and disappointment. While Williams threw for over 3,500 yards
and posted a solid TD-to-INT ratio (20-6), he averaged just under
one touchdown pass per game, and failed to score a single rushing
touchdown.
On the other hand, Bo
Nix entered the league with less fanfare but was immediately
expected to be a full-time starter. His production, based on his
redraft league ADP last year (QB24), exceeded expectations. Now,
with defensive coordinators having a full offseason to study his
tape, the question is: will Nix continue to improve? What is clear
is that fantasy managers looking to wait on selecting a QB after
the first six rounds will be closely watching these two sophomores.
So, which one is the better target midway through your draft?
The Strengths:
Bo Nix’s strengths
were on full display last season as he transitioned from a quarterback
expected to rely heavily on checkdowns to one who came within
striking distance of 30 touchdown passes. To understand how this
evolution occurred, it’s crucial to consider the role of his head
coach. While Drew Brees would likely have been a successful QB
regardless of his coach, it’s clear that Sean Payton played a
significant role in elevating his game, especially in terms of
statistical output. As long as Payton continues coaching Nix,
the expectation is that he’ll keep developing and become more
comfortable taking shots downfield. For context, Brees’ yards
per completion rose from just over 10 yards in San Diego to more
than 12 in six of his first seven years in New Orleans. Nix averaged
almost exactly 10 yards per completion last season, and if he
improves by just two yards per completion, that translates to
an additional 750 passing yards. Add in his four rushing touchdowns
and nearly 500 rushing yards from last season, and the upside
is clear.
Much like Drew Brees’ career was shaped by coaching, Jared Goff has also thrived thanks to support from Sean McVay in Los
Angeles and Ben Johnson in Detroit. Now, Johnson has been brought
in to help Caleb Williams reach the next level, much like he did
with Goff. In addition to his existing weapons, Williams now has
even more talent at his disposal, including the lightning quick
Luther Burden III and tight end Colston Loveland. Already armed
with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, Williams enters this season with
an upgraded receiving corps. Like Nix, Williams averaged nearly
10 yards per completion last year, but with Odunze continuing
to develop, Burden’s big-play potential, and Johnson’s
coaching, a significant leap forward in both completion percentage
and yards per completion is expected. Even though Williams didn’t
score a rushing touchdown in 2024, he still ran for 489 yards—59
more than Nix, with both playing the same number of games. Logic
suggests that with nearly 500 rushing yards, a couple of touchdowns
on the ground are bound to come his way this season.
The Weaknesses:
While Chicago’s receiving corps is stacked with high-quality
pass-catching options, the same can’t be said for Denver.
Though TE Evan Engram was brought in as a high-volume target,
he doesn’t project to be a big yards-per-catch guy. That
role likely falls to Marvin Mims, but his YPC with Nix at quarterback
dropped from 17.1 in his rookie season (2023) to 12.9 last year,
and he’s yet to catch more than 39 passes in either of his
first two seasons. Courtland Sutton has been a steady producer
over the years, but even he managed just over 1,000 receiving
yards in 2024, despite seeing 135 targets. Add to that the fact
that Denver strengthened its run game this offseason with the
additions of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, and they’re likely
to rely more on the ground game with upgraded personnel. While
Denver’s strong defense means a run-first approach isn’t
guaranteed, it’s certainly a strong possibility. Given these
factors, it’s clear that Nix’s ceiling is lower than
Williams’ when you consider the offensive scheme and surrounding
talent.
Williams was sacked 68 times last season, leading the NFL
in that unwanted category—42 more times than Nix, despite
both playing the same number of games. Much of that can be attributed
to poor offensive line play, though no team addressed its line
issues better than the Bears, who added Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson,
and Drew Dalman. Still, it was clear to anyone who watched Williams
last season that he holds onto the ball too long and is often
indecisive with his reads. Will better offensive coaching help
fix that? It’s possible, but when you factor in the lack
of touchdowns (both passing and rushing), Williams' floor appears
lower than Nix’s heading into 2025.
The Verdict:
When evaluating these two quarterbacks, it’s important
to consider not just their performances last season, but also
what they’re poised to do in their second year. At first
glance, Nix’s 33 total touchdowns compared to Williams’
20 in 2024 suggests Nix is already the superior fantasy option.
However, that would be a short-sighted take, especially given
how much the Bears have done in the offseason to set up Williams
in his second year. The real question is: If Williams does improve,
how much better will he be? Much of that depends on the development
of players around him—his revamped offensive line, two rookie
pass-catchers (Burden and Loveland), and Rome Odunze, who’s
growing into a key role. But the biggest wild card could be the
addition of HC Ben Johnson, who may unlock new levels for Williams'
game. I expect Williams to produce more on a similar number of
attempts, with possibly a slight dip in rushing yards as he stays
in the pocket longer.
As for Nix, while I believe his ceiling is lower than Williams’,
particularly with Denver's improved rushing attack, he’s
still the more proven commodity. Nix will have another year with
the same coach and most of the same pass catchers, with Engram
added to the mix. Given that stability, Nix feels like the safer
choice, especially if you’re looking to draft a second QB
later. However, if you can pair Williams with a steady backup
like Justin Herbert or Brock Purdy, his upside might be too good
to pass up in the early-middle rounds. Ultimately, you could be
just fine selecting either of these young QBs, as waiting on your
first QB could allow you to load up on RB/WR talent, making you
the envy of your league come December. Proceed with confidence.
