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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 3
9/29/15

Good morning from the Buzz! It won’t be difficult to generate some thoughts on Week Three as some wild stuff took place and there’s plenty to get sorted out. So, let’s roll up our sleeves and review what was most newsworthy including a significant disruption to the juggernaut that is the Steelers’ offense. Ready, set…go!

Larry Fitzgerald

Still got it: Larry Fitzgerarld ranks second among wideouts and leads all wide receivers with 5 TDs.

No Country for Old Men

If you had told your league mates back in August that you were rolling with Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald as your top two WRs, there would been some raised eyebrows and maybe a few chuckles. Then, behind your back, there would have been outright laughter. No one’s laughing now. Smith and Fitzgerald look reborn, and everyone is trying to figure out just how long their surge is going to last. Consider this: Steve Smith has been targeted in the passing game FORTY times in three weeks. Defenses know that he’s going to be the focal point of the offense, but they just can’t slow him down…for now. Smith also began 2014 like gang-busters before eventually losing steam. He plays on heart and determination for as long as his smallish frame can take it, but does wear down physically eventually. So, get it from Smith while you can, but don’t expect him to be a top-five WR all year long.

Fitzgerald is a different case. His offseason workout regimen is legendary, so perhaps he’s simply worked himself back into a prominent role in fantasy football. He has 5 TDs in the three games and Carson Palmer is looking for him exclusively near the goaline. Bottom line: These two “old men” have been amazing, but Fitzgerald has a little more staying power.

We Have a Split Decision…

Speaking of aging veterans who were thought to still be prominent in 2015, we now turn our attention to the Indianapolis duo of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. Both Gore and Johnson were likely in starting lineups in Week 1. Both might have been in Week 2 as well, but coming into Week 3, the value of both players was very much a concern. Week 3 showed us that Gore can still be productive as his 80-plus yards and 2 TDs was one of the better rushing lines of the week. It also showed us that Andre Johnson is just Reggie Wayne from last year. That is, a once great receiver who no longer has the ability to separate from a defensive back. I still think Gore is going to be up and down based on matchups, but Johnson is almost droppable at this point. The Colts are moving forward with Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett and who can blame them.

So, That’s What Happens When People Get on the Same Page…

In Week 1, six QBs eclipsed the 300-yard passing barrier. In Week Two, it was seven. This past weekend, it ballooned to eleven, which elevated the scores of both QBs and WRs such that a greater volume of scoring showed up in fantasy lineups. Heck, even Cam Newton found a way to get 300-plus yards with his no-name receiving corps. This is a sign of things to come. In December, when it gets colder, teams rely more on the ground game, but in October and November, look for the aerial assault to continue. In some ways, it actually makes the value of truly elite RBs like Adrian Peterson that much greater given their scarcity and because high-scoring QBs and WRs are so much easier to find. It’s a passing league and will remain so for the remainder of the regular season. Just keep in mind that a solid ground game will still be necessary in December if you want to win a championship.

So, That’s What Happens When Two Run Defenses Fail to Show Up…

If your starting running back on Sunday came from the Dallas-Atlanta game, you were elated at the results. It was a game in which both Devonta Freeman and Joseph Randle turned in the kind of performances that win fantasy games almost singlehandedly. So, what can we expect from Freeman and Randle moving forward? Considering Atlanta stopped DeMarco Murray cold in Week 1 and kept the Giants’ RBs at bay in Week 2, I think Randle’s performance was telling. He’ll be asked to continue carrying the load as long as Romo remains out of the lineup. As for Freeman, Tevin Coleman is still the better option between the tackles, but you can’t help but take notice of this kind of performance. It was a heavy workload for a back of his size, so don’t expect a repeat performance in Week 4. Hey, at least an Atlanta RB (or two) is fantasy relevant this year. When was the last time we could say that?

Never a Dull Moment in Bengal-Land

2015 was supposed to be the year of Jeremy Hill pounding the ball down defense’s throats while Andy Dalton managed games and allowed the team’s defense to close out wins. The last two weeks, it’s been just the opposite. Jeremy Hill has been supplanted by Giovani Bernard and Andy Dalton has thrown six touchdowns and run for another during that span. Sunday, that meant a monster game from A.J. Green (227 yards, 2 TDs) as well as the best performance from Marvin Jones (5-94-1) since last year’s injury. With a full slate of weapons at his disposal, Dalton has demonstrated the ability to remain fantasy-relevant all season long, but I do think a return to normalcy is coming soon…particularly if Hill can keep from fumbling. Hill owners shouldn’t panic, but if you’re in a PPR league, he’s not a great option at the moment. Bernard will simply be in the game on any and all passing downs.

Nagging Injuries Hitting Elite Running Backs Hard

At this point, you can count the number of stud running backs on one had. Some of that has to do with the trends noted above, but some of it has to do with a few proven studs who just can’t stay healthy this year. Case in point would be Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy…and possibly C.J. Anderson. In many leagues, all three were mid-to-late first round draft picks, but none are really start-worthy at this point until they get things right with their health. Throw in DeMarco Murray’s hamstring and you’ve got more than half of the preseason’s top ten running backs either hurt or ineffective through three weeks. If you have any of the guys mentioned and you’re still winning games, you’re getting it done some other way. It just underscores how important handcuffs at the RB position are as names like Karlos Williams, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles are picking up the slack.

Mariota Madness

After Week 1, we shared with you here at the Buzz not to get too excited about the first week successes of Marcus Mariota and Bishop Sankey in Tennessee. Well, we were rigt and wrong at the same time. Mariota is impressing and his 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio through three games along with his 800-plus yards passing is better than any rookie I can think of in recent memory. With a decent receiving corps in the fold, Mariota could take off in terms of fantasy production if he begins to run the ball more. So far, he’s only rushed for 25 yards in three games, but he’s capable of much more. I think Mariota now projects as a low-end QB1 moving forward and if you’ve got him and another QB of similar value, it might be safe to trade that QB for some help elsewhere on your roster. As for Sankey, well, the insertion of Antonio Andrews (who??) in the lineup on Sunday is all you need to know.

Trade ‘Em If You Can…

Now, I’m not saying you should trade these players just for the heck of it, but if you’re deficient at some other positions, here are a couple of players whose values are as high now as they’ll ever be all season and thus could command something beyond their true value in return. At QB, Carson Palmer fits the bill. Chris Johnson has somehow found the fountain of youth and with the defense playing so well and Andre Ellington likely to return next week, Arizona is going to shift towards the run. Palmer's value will never be higher than it is right now. The same could be said at WR for Keenan Allen. Antonio Gates will soon be back in San Diego and will occupy the middle of the field where Allen is making his living right now. It's good to see Allen bounce back and be the fantasy contributor he was two years ago. But, his value will take a dip beginning in Week 5. Get something for him now if you have other needs.

This A-Rod Is Beloved

Who are the happiest fantasy football owners this Tuesday morning? Chances are they're Aaron Rodgers owners who capitalized on his 333 yards and 5 TDs on Monday night. Those who chose Rodgers in their drafts over Andrew Luck are feeling great about that decision right now. Other happy Tuesday morning fantasy football owners? How about those who own Randall Cobb, James Jones, Jeremy Maclin, and/or Jamaal Charles. Offenses feasted on Monday night and many a fantasy game turned as a result.

This week, the Patriots and Titans will take the week off, so if you're a Brady, Gronk, Edelman, or Mariota owner, take note. We'll take some time next week to chronicle what life without them was like and what it all means moving forward. Until then, enjoy the last few days of September and Buzz out! !