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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Late-Round Draft Strategies
8/22/14


Chances are pretty good that when you draft your fantasy football team in the coming days most of the people you draft with will have at least some basic strategy that guides them through the first few rounds, maybe even the first half of your draft. Those strategies are typically based on position scarcity, perceived value and a desire to formulate a somewhat balanced team. Thus, when the halfway point of a draft is reached, most people have executed their draft plan to the best of their ability.

For some, though, draft strategies fall apart after that halfway point. The second half of some drafts have little rhyme or reason as fantasy owners look to fill out rosters with guys they’ve had on their teams before, or guys from their favorite NFL or college team, or just guys that some cheat sheet says possess the most value. It is in these later rounds that an astute owner can often separate himself or herself from his or her pack of rivals or, at the very least, protect against the likelihood of injuries. In the paragraphs that follow, this article will seek to give you the edge in those later rounds with some ideas for making the most of the picks that round out your team.

1. Take Fliers on Young/High-Upside Players

Zach Ertz

Tight end Zach Ertz should be on your late-round radar.

If you are taking a cheat sheet to your draft with a list of players based solely on projected fantasy points, you may end up with a bench full of veterans particularly if you are using somebody else’s projections. And, while having a few veterans like Anquan Boldin or DeAngelo Williams can certainly give your team some stability, it limits your ability to have a truly explosive team. Consider these names: Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas. All enjoyed breakout seasons in 2013 and all (minus Lacy perhaps) were second half, redraft selections at best. If you hit on even one of them, it likely propelled your team to another level. So, rule No. 1 is take some chances. And, if you’re playing in a keeper or dynasty league, the importance of this rule TRIPLES. The whole second half of your draft should be fliers minus maybe one or two “safe” picks. Here are some examples of what we’re talking about here:

RB: Take Carlos Hyde, Andre Williams, Christine Michael, Terrance West, Tre Mason and Devonta Freeman over running backs like Darren McFadden, Shonn Greene, Chris Ivory, Jonathan Stewart and Knowshon Moreno.

WR: Take Brandin Cooks, Rueben Randle, Terrance Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins and Kenny Stills over wide receivers like Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and James Jones.

TE: Take Zach Ertz, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert and Eric Ebron over tight ends like Antonio Gates, Heath Miller and Jared Cook.

Note: The one primary position that I didn’t include in this was quarterback. If you’re going to take a flier on a young/high upside quarterback who hasn’t yet established himself, make sure he’s your No. 3 quarterback and not your primary backup. Rookie quarterbacks rarely break out, which leads to consideration No. 2.

2. Obtain an Upper-Tier Backup Quarterback

In recent years, the quarterback position has been deeper than ever with respect to fantasy drafts. When you consider Ben Roethlisberger has basically been considered a “backup” quarterback for fantasy purposes for most his career and then you look at his actual numbers season in and season out (3,900 yards and 24-plus TDs on average), you’ll get a feel for just how deep the position is. This depth can lull a general manager to sleep, and this year there’s a big difference between the top-tier “backup” quarterbacks and the lower-tier backups. Let me be more specific: Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton are significantly better/safer/wiser than Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford. You can find wide receivers on the waiver wire throughout the course of a season, but once the draft is over, you’re basically stuck at quarterback barring a trade. Thus, if your starter goes down, it could be a season-killer unless you’ve got one of the top-tier quarterback’s noted above. Dalton and Rivers in particular were top five at the position last year in most scoring formats (8,800 yards and 65 touchdowns combined). Although coaching changes this season (Jay Gruden and Ken Whisenhunt are now head coaches elsewhere and not coordinators) have led to a drop in their respective values, their presence on your team could prove invaluable. Don’t put this off. You might just thank me later.

3. Draft Running Backs Who Backup Players with Health Risks

I would imagine many of you have read a dozen articles over the years on “handcuffing.” It’s not exactly a new concept. I think handcuffing, however, is still a vital late-round drafting strategy with respect to one position and one position only: running back. If Andre Johnson were to get injured during the season, for example, it’s highly unlikely that Keshawn Martin will fill his shoes in such a way that the numbers resemble what Johnson puts up. There’s a reason that most receivers don’t crack the starting lineup on NFL teams. In the case of running backs, a good offensive line can make even a marginal player into a productive fantasy starter if he’s forced into action. That’s why it’s a good idea not only to handcuff, but look to draft running backs who do indeed directly back up high-risk guys. Keeping that in mind, here are the running backs (top 25 or so) with the most and least health risk entering the 2014 season:

Level Four Risk (Running backs whose health is MOST concerning): Arian Foster, Ben Tate.

Level Three Risk (Running backs with elevated health concerns): DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Frank Gore.

Level Two Risk (Running backs with mild to moderate health concerns): Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Montee Ball, Le’Veon Bell, Chris Johnson, Trent Richardson.

Level One Risk (Running backs whose health is LEAST concerning): LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings.

All of that is to say that players like Terrance West (CLE), Jonathan Grimes (HOU), Lance Dunbar (DAL), Bryce Brown (BUF), Donald Brown (SD), and Bobby Rainey (TB) make really nice late-round targets, even if you don’t have the guys starting in front of them on your roster. There’s a decent chance they’ll start some games given the injury history or the age of the guy directly in front of them on the depth chart.

4. Get a Second Team Defense

Fantasy football is all about matchups, and nowhere is that more true than with respect to team defenses. Even if you feel great about the team defense you selected on draft day, pick a second one late in your draft, particularly if you can get a defense that is going up against a rookie quarterback twice during the season or plays in an offensively challenged division like the AFC South. Having a second team defense gives you options- options you may need as the season progresses to break open a tightly contested matchup.

I’m sure there are other late-round strategies worth employing in the world of fantasy football that warrant discussion, but I think if you keep these four in mind, you’ll be rewarded down the road for doing so. Remember, seasons are not always won or lost based upon what happens in rounds one, two or three of a fantasy draft. It’s those later rounds that sometimes can and do make all the difference.

Suggestions, comments, or questions? E-mail me.