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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 16
Value Plays
12/24/15


We are quickly losing our grip on the NFL season and this time of year many season long players will be looking to dip their toe into the world of Daily Fantasy for the first time. We welcome these new players and see this also as an opportunity to finish the season strong.

Moving forward to Week 15, there are some clear value plays that I will most definitely be taking advantage of. Below is my current cash lineup as well as some detailed value plays. Be sure to check back on Saturday/Sunday morning for an update.


Week 16 FanDuel Lineup

Value Plays


QB – Teddy Bridgewater, MIN ($6600) vs. NYG

Teddy Bridgewater had just 20 attempts last week but was extremely impressive after Adrian Peterson went down early with an ankle injury. He scored a rushing touchdown and added four through the air with zero interceptions. He carried this Vikings offense and will face in Week 16 arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the New York Giants. They are allowing 30 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in the last four weeks and Bridgewater’s price ($6600) makes him a clear value in Week 16.

QB – Alex Smith, KC ($6800) vs. CLE

The second value quarterback I like is Alex Smith. He consistently has a safe floor, which is exactly what you are looking for in cash games. The Chiefs should control this game against the Browns so volume may be an issue but his price ($6800) gives him a good chance to hit value before that happens. Smith was efficient last week with just four incompletions thrown and relied heavily on Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Browns have been giving out passing scores at an extremely high rate and this game should be no different.


RB – David Johnson, ARI ($7300) vs. GB

Yes, David Johnson is still a value at $7300. He has more rushing yards in December than 24 NFL teams since being given the reigns as the bell cow back in this offense. Green bay is giving up nearly 16 points per game to opposing running backs and this game has one of the highest point totals of the week. The Cardinals are a home favorite which is always a sound strategy when choosing a running back, especially in cash games. Johnson did have a knee injury scare but was able to return to the game in Week 15 and posted career best numbers. With his involvement in the passing game and amount of red zone opportunities in this offense, Johnson continues is a top option on the entire Week 16 slate.


RB – Karlos Williams, BUF ($5400) vs. DAL

Williams has been battling back from a shoulder injury and did not handle a full load in his first game back in Week 15. He will most likely share carries with Mike Gilleslee but Williams has the touchdown upside to be a great value play at $5400. The Cowboys defense is now one to target at the running back position as they are now averaging over 100 yards per game allowed on the ground. The past four weeks running backs are averaging just over 20 fantasy points per game. Rex Ryan is never shy about running the ball and at home against the Cowboys will be a great volume play in cash.

WR – Michael Floyd, ARI ($6300) vs. GB

People that have continued to ride Michael Floyd have been making some money the past four weeks or so. He is still underpriced for the targets and red-zone involvement at $6300 so I will not be moving off him in cash games. The Cardinals were not forced to throw much with David Johnson going off for three touchdowns but expect Carson Palmer to air it out if they want to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Floyd led the team in receiving last week and the Packers are giving it up through the air. Floyd is actually a touchdown regression candidate with just one touchdown in his past five games. A clear value play if you want to go cheaper at wide receiver and load up at other positions.

WR – Rueben Randle, NYG ($5700) @MIN

Odell Beckham Jr. will be out of this game against Minnesota after his antics with Josh Norman last week but let me be clear, I am not a fan of Rueben Randle’s talent. I however am a fan of opportunity and Randle will get a significant bump in targets against a banged up defense with Beckham on the sidelines. In the past four weeks the Vikings are giving up 25 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. On volume alone, Randle has to be considered in cash games this week.


WR – Stefon Diggs, MIN ($6000) vs. NYG

Diggs stepped up last week for two touchdowns on just four targets in Week 15. When Adrian Peterson went down early with an ankle injury the Vikings were forced to rely on Bridgewater who didn’t disappoint. Diggs had not scored in six games and even though he had just four targets he tied for the team lead in that category. The Giants can’t stop anyone and at just $6000, Diggs will have no problem hitting value in cash. The Giants are giving up 30 points per game to opposing wide receivers and Diggs is always a factor after the catch to rack up big yardage totals even with limited targets.

WR – Jeremy Maclin, KC ($6900) vs. CLE

Maclin continues to be targeted heavily in the Chiefs offense including last week where he had seven catches on ten targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs do play conservatively at times so that may be part of the reason for Maclin’s consistently low price, but against the Browns I still am betting on him in regards to $/point value as a great play in Week 16. The Browns have been one of the worst teams against the pass the past few weeks and Maclin will be able to take advantage off of high percentage throws and screen passes all day.