A year ago, Nix was an unproven commodity. A first-round pick
many felt had been a significant reach when the Broncos called
his name with the 12th overall selection. Now, he’s locked
in as QB1 after finishing third in AP Offensive Rookie of the
Year voting behind Washington’s Jayden Daniels and Las Vegas’
Brock Bowers -- and well ahead of fellow QBs Drake Maye (Patriots)
and Caleb Williams (Bears), who were both taken ahead of him.
Looking back on 2024, it’s easy to track Nix’s development.
Early on, he leaned on his athleticism, which is borne out in
the stats. Through seven games, the then-rookie averaged 178 yards
passing with 5 TDs and 5 INTs, and he added 257 yards and 3 TDs
on the ground. Things changed in Week 8. In a 14-point win over
Carolina, Nix passed for 284 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs with
minimal running (four carries, four yards). That was the formula
the rest of the way with Nix averaging 253 yards through the air
with 24 TDs and 7 INTs over the final 10 games. He ran for just
173 yards and 1 TD during that stretch.
It's that distribution of numbers that clouds his 2025 outlook
to a degree. His development as a passer, coupled with some improvements
at the skill positions, is encouraging, but there’s a reason
the top of the fantasy quarterback rankings is occupied by dual
threats. We know Nix can run, but will he? If you look at his
final 10 games and project over a full season, it only amounts
to 294 yards and 2 TDs, and those numbers aren’t moving
the needle. Even with some uncertainty, Nix is a viable fantasy
starter, and he belongs in the discussion once the top six or
seven QBs are off the board.
Dissatisfied with the production he got from his backfield --
the combination of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric
Estime turned 328 total carries into 1,319 yards (4.0 YPC) and
7 TDs with just 3 runs of more than 20 yards last season -- head
coach Sean Payton looked to add talent to the running back room
during the offseason. The first and biggest splash being the selection
of Harvey in the second round of this year’s draft.
Harvey was highly productive during his time at Central Florida,
averaging 6.5 yards per carry for his collegiate career, and he
boasts a nice blend of tackle-breaking ability and speed. There
are some concerns about his ability in pass protection that could
limit him to early downs, at least initially, but you don’t invest
a premium pick at the running back position unless you think they
can be a difference maker. He’ll have to compete with holdovers
McLaughlin and Estime, as well as newly signed J.K. Dobbins, but
right now he looks to be the favorite to take over as the lead
back.
While he doesn’t appear to have the same ceiling as fellow
AFC West rookie backs Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) and Omarion Hampton
(Chargers), Harvey has a clear path to playing time. McLaughlin
is more of a change of pace than a featured back, Estime is unproven,
and Dobbins has a long injury history. The job is Harvey’s
to lose. Nab him as your No.3 back and see if he can push toward
the top 20.
Limited to nine games over the previous three seasons combined
due to knee and Achilles’ injuries, Dobbins stayed mostly
healthy in 2024, playing in 13 of 17 games and setting career
bests in carries (195) and yards (905) while scoring nine times.
The Chargers were so impressed that they... signed Najee Harris,
drafted Hampton, and allowed the Ohio State alum to walk in free
agency.
It’s hard to blame them. For as hot as Dobbins started
in 2024, he trailed off quickly, failing to top 100 rushing yards
in a game after Week 2 and averaging 4.0 yards per carry or less
in eight of his final 11 outings. He’s never been much of
a threat in the passing game, either. Perhaps the Broncos will
find the right mix of involvement to keep the oft-injured back
on the field this year. Perhaps not. Right now, he looks like
a veteran presence at a position littered with youth and inexperience.
Fantasy owners should, for the most part, ignore his 1,058-yard,
9-TD effort from last year. LA had limited options, and their
willingness to move on from him even after a solid season tells
you they don’t think he can handle being a lead back. Dobbins
remains a top-50 fantasy option at the position, and as your fourth
or fifth back (depending on league size) he could provide decent
depth.
Through seven games last year, it looked like Sutton’s
days as a fantasy relevant wideout might have become a thing of
the past. During those first seven weeks, the veteran totaled
21 receptions, 277 yards, and 2 TDs. Once Nix got more comfortable
in the offense, however, which began in earnest in Week 8, Sutton
delivered his best work since tearing his ACL back in 2020. Starting
with an 8-100-0 effort against Carolina, he averaged 6 receptions
for 80.4 yards per game and scored six times. It concluded with
his first 1,000-yard campaign since 2019.
While the team has moved to add more weapons to the offense,
including signing TE Evan Engram and drafting WR Pat
Bryant in the third round, Sutton appears poised to operate
as the top target in the passing game once again in 2025. That
doesn’t mean we won’t see a reduction in target share, though,
as last year Sutton was targeted 135 times, nearly double that
of runner-up Javonte Williams (70). In particular, you’d expect
Engram, a high-volume option with the Jaguars in recent years,
to be a lot more involved than the likes of last year’s TEs Adam
Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Greg Dulcich.
Entering his age-30 season, Sutton suddenly finds himself back
in weekly starter territory. Even if he loses some opportunities
on a week-to-week basis versus 2024, the ascension of Nix should
be enough to think that Sutton could exceed last year’s
81-1081-8 line. He’s a strong WR3.
After Sutton it’s a bit of a free-for-all at the receiver
position in Denver. That group includes Bryant, a physical rookie
with limited speed that might have been selected with an eye on
Sutton’s impending free agency, and second-year wideouts
Devaughn Vele (41-475-3 in ’24) and Troy Franklin (28-263-2),
who was a college team of Nix at Oregon. The most likely breakout
candidate appears to be Mims, however, after the 2023 second-round
pick closed last season strong.
Like much of the Denver passing attack, Mims got off to a slow
start, but unlike Nix and Sutton, the light didn’t switch
on for the former Sooner until later. In his first 10 games, Mims
managed a paltry 11-69-0 line. He scored a touchdown in a Week
11 route of the Falcons, and from that point on, he delivered
a reception of 30-plus yards in all but one of his final seven
games. He closed with 28 catches, 434 yards, and 6 TDs in that
stretch -- that’s a 1,000-plus-yard pace.
Mims, the first player selected after Payton was hired, heads
into 2025 with intriguing upside. If he can build on his strong
finish, he could push into WR3 territory. The track record is
small, though, and some of those big games came against suspect
competition (that includes a 5-51-2 line in Week 18 when the Chiefs
rested their entire team). Roll the dice on Mims as your No. 5
wideout and see what happens.
In 2024, the combination of Trautman, Krull, Dulcich, and Nate
Adkins were collectively targeted 72 times, resulting in 51 receptions,
483 yards, and 5 TDs. For comparison, Engram averaged 102 targets,
78 receptions, 698 yards, and 3 TDs during his three-season run
in Jacksonville, which included him missing eight games last year
due to injury. On paper, the veteran tight end should be a massive
upgrade for the Broncos passing attack.
There are some questions about fit, however, as the two tight
ends that have shined in Payton’s “Joker” role
were Jeremy Shockey and Jimmy Graham. Engram resembles neither.
He isn’t nearly as physical as Shockey and lacks the verticality
and red-zone prowess of Graham. He was a volume target for the
Jags, but that approach doesn’t fit what the Broncos do.
So, where does that leave Engram? Odds are he’ll split the
difference, being more involved than last year’s group of
nondescript options while also not approaching the number of opportunities
he saw in Jacksonville.
A year ago, you could make a case for Engram as one of the first
five TEs off the board. Now, he looks like someone to group in
with the likes of Jonnu Smith (Dolphins), Colston Loveland (Bears),
Jake Ferguson (Cowboys), Tucker Kraft (Packers), and Dalton Kincaid
(Bills) as a low-end TE1. With most of those other names being
younger and boasting more upside, fantasy owners will need to
decide whether they want the steadier hand in Engram over those
with a higher ceiling.
