A year ago, Trey Lance was a popular breakout candidate as a
possible top-10 fantasy QB. Now, he appears to be on the outside
looking in for the starting job in San Francisco after suffering
a broken ankle two games into 2021, causing him to miss the rest
of the season. In his absence, the job eventually landed in the
lap of Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, who stepped
in and led the 49ers to seven straight wins before suffering an
elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game.
That injury turned out to be a torn UCL, which required surgery
in March. While there was initially some concern about Purdy’s
availability for the upcoming campaign, subsequent updates have
painted a much rosier picture that suggest the Iowa State product
is ahead of schedule. At this stage, both head coach Kyle Shanahan
and GM John Lynch (and Purdy himself) are optimistic the quarterback
will be ready to roll in Week 1. If not, the team could go back
to Lance, who has reportedly looked improved during offseason
workouts, or veteran Sam Darnold.
While there’s no clear hierarchy among the three quarterbacks
at this point, if all three are healthy it feels like Purdy has
earned the opportunity to lead the team after efficiently guiding
the offense to a 7-1 record in eight starts -- the lone loss came
against the Eagles in the game he was injured. The issue with
that scenario for fantasy owners is Purdy wasn’t markedly
different than Jimmy Garoppolo statistically, passing for more
than 250 yards in a game just once and offering nothing as a runner.
Even as the 49ers starter, Purdy might not be a top-25 fantasy
QB.
A budding superstar through his first three NFL seasons, McCaffrey
battled injuries that limited him to just 10 games in 2020 and
2021 combined. His inability to stay healthy led to Carolina flipping
the former All Pro for a handful of picks last October. For at
least one season, the trade was a slam dunk success for the 49ers
as Run CMC’s arrival immediately transformed the 49ers offense
-- in six games before acquiring McCaffrey, the 49ers averaged
20.3 points per game; in 11 games after, that number jumped to
29.8.
Shanahan also seemed to find the right balance to keep McCaffrey
on the field, only exceeding 20 carries in a game once. The monitored
workload didn’t hamper his statistical output, though, as
in 14 games with San Francisco (including the playoffs), the Stanford
product averaged 108 total yards per outing and scored 13 touchdowns.
He’s as talented a back as there is the NFL, and his versatility
may be unmatched as well with great hands out of the backfield
and the toughness to be effective in goal-to-go situations that
belie his size.
There’s no doubt McCaffrey belongs in the conversation
for the No. 1 overall pick alongside the likes of Justin Jefferson,
Austin Ekeler, and Jonathan Taylor, but the seventh-year pro didn’t
have his durability red flags wiped clean by one healthy campaign.
Plus, there’s this historical nugget: the 49ers have had
a different leading rusher in each of Shanahan’s six seasons
as head coach. Ultimately, McCaffrey is a clear RB1 that carries
significant risk.
One reason the 49ers made the move for McCaffrey was that Mitchell
got hurt... again. Over two years in the NFL, Mitchell has appeared
in 16 of 33 games due to a variety of injuries, which included
two stints on Injured Reserve last year -- he also missed the
NFC Championship Game with a groin issue. When healthy, he’s
been effective, averaging 4.9 yards on 252 career carries, though
his lack of involvement in the passing game portends an early-down
role even if McCaffrey were to miss time.
As a standalone talent, Mitchell is a borderline top-50 fantasy
back, as the 49ers would like to give him enough touches each
week to keep McCaffrey fresh over a 17-game season. He’d be a
savvy handcuff for CMC owners as well, though Mitchell has serious
medical issues that could make him a wasted pick if he can’t stay
off the IR. It’s a definite “buyer beware” situation.
WR Deebo Samuel
(2022 WR Rank: No.36, 13.3 FPts/G)
Although it was overshadowed by Cooper Kupp’s monster season,
Samuel put up huge numbers of his own in 2021: 77 receptions,
1,770 combined yards, and 14 touchdowns. With Lance set to take
over as QB1, and viewed by many as an upgrade over Jimmy G in
terms of dynamic quarterback play, the thought was Samuel would
be a top-10 fantasy wideout. Instead, the former Gamecock experienced
regression across the board before a high ankle sprain effectively
ended his season on Dec. 11.
Heading into 2023, expectations are significantly reduced. With
a true lead back like McCaffrey in place, Samuel’s usage
as a runner will continue to dip, and he’s yet to prove
he can be effective as a receiver in the red zone with just 12
touchdowns among his 223 career grabs. It might also be time to
worry about his extremely physical style of play and the toll
it’s already taken on his body; he sat out four games last
year and has now missed 15 total in four seasons.
There’s a chance that all these things might combine to
knock the talented wideout even further down draft boards than
he should be, and if that’s the case, Samuel certainly offers
enough upside to warrant selecting him. Whether he deserves to
be considered a top-20 fantasy receiver is up for debate, though,
and that wasn’t the case a year ago.
Opinions of Aiyuk have been all over the map since the 49ers
made him a first-round pick in 2020, especially when his much-anticipated
breakout in 2021 got off to an extremely rocky start. It’s time
to move past that. The Arizona State product led the team in targets
(114), receptions (78), and yards (1,015) last year while appearing
in all 17 games for the second straight year, which was a refreshing
development on a team that battled key injuries all season long.
His eight touchdowns were also a career high, though he trailed
George Kittle (11) in that department.
The 49ers exercised Aiyuk’s fifth-year option during the
offseason, and the arrow looks to be pointed up entering Year
4. Still, it’s worth noting that Aiyuk didn’t have
huge numbers with Purdy under center, topping 80 yards just twice
in the then-rookie’s eight starts despite Samuel missing
several games with an ankle injury. Although he’s arguably
a safer choice than his teammate, Aiyuk is better suited to a
WR3 role with the hope that he can ascend into WR2 territory.
After posting back-to-back 1,000-plus-yard campaigns in 2018
and 2019, respectively, Kittle had seen his production (and durability)
regress, averaging 772 yards in two subsequent seasons. So, when
he missed the first two games of 2022 with a groin injury, fantasy
owners were understandably nervous. A slow start that saw him
top 50 yards in a game just twice in his first seven while scoring
only two TDs didn’t help matters, either. The insertion
of Purdy was a boon for Kittle, however, as the veteran scored
a whopping seven touchdowns over the final four games of last
season.
Despite the strong finish, Kittle still finished with modest
numbers in receptions (60) and yards (765), giving him three consecutive
seasons of less than 1,000 yards. The TDs (11) were almost double
his previous career high, so it’s certainly debatable whether
he can match that number in 2023. Tight end is a weak fantasy
position, though, and once you get past Travis Kelce and Mark
Andrews, the next batch that includes names like TJ Hockenson,
Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, and Kittle pretty much comes down
to personal preference as to how you rank that grouping of TE1s.
