After passing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his second
season, Herbert appeared poised to enter the upper echelon of
fantasy quarterbacks alongside names like Patrick Mahomes and
Josh Allen. Instead, the Oregon product experienced significant
statistical regression across the board, posting 4,739 yards passing,
25 TDs, and 10 INTs. He also stopped running, dropping from a
two-year average of 268 yards and 4 TDs on the ground to a paltry
147 yards and no scores.
The Chargers noticed the dip in production, and doubtless it
helped lead to the dismissal of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi,
who was replaced by former Dallas Cowboys OC Kellen Moore. How
well Moore meshes with Herbert figures to go a long way in determining
how strongly the newly minted “highest paid player in the
NFL” bounces back. Dak Prescott put together some strong
years under Moore, and it certainly appears that Herbert has a
higher ceiling than his Dallas counterpart.
There aren’t many teams out there that offer more offensive weapons
than the Chargers, and LA spent a first-round pick on Quentin
Johnston, giving the Bolts one of the NFL’s most talented top-four
receiver groups. There is all manner of upside with Herbert, but
coming off a disappointing 2022, you should view him as more of
a midrange QB1 rather than a top-tier selection.
Any concerns that Ekeler’s breakthrough 2021 performance
was a fluke were resoundingly allayed last year when he racked
up 1,637 yards and 18 touchdowns while appearing in all 17 games.
The Chargers balked at handing the 28-year-old a new contract,
which led to a trade request, but ultimately LA tweaked the final
year of his deal to bring back their No. 1 back. In a mild surprise,
the team made no notable additions at the position, so unless
someone takes a major step forward there’s little reason
to believe we won’t see a heavy dose of Ekeler again in
2023.
That “little reason,” however, is the hiring of Moore,
who oversaw a two-headed backfield in Dallas over the past few
seasons and may want to divvy up the touches a bit more. Again,
though, it’s far from clear that LA has anyone on roster
capable of handling a Tony Pollard-sized role. Unless someone
emerges during the preseason, operate under the assumption that
Ekeler will be the bell cow again this year and value him accordingly.
He’s an option to be the first back selected, and one could
argue he carries fewer question marks than other names in the
discussion: McCaffrey and Barkley (durability), Jacobs and Taylor
(contract), and Bijan Robinson (inexperience).
A pair of former fourth-round picks in Kelley (2020) and Isaiah
Spiller (2022) should compete to be the No. 2 back in Los Angeles.
Spiller got more of the buzz as a possible handcuff for Ekeler a
year ago, but it was Kelley that wound up filling the role, finishing
second on the team in carries (69) and yards (287) while Spiller
managed an 18-41-0 line while frequently being a healthy inactive.
As it stands, neither back offers any standalone value, though whoever
locks down the RB2 spot could be a late-round target for Ekeler
owners looking to secure their investment.
WR Keenan Allen
(2022 WR Rank: No.38, 16.6 FPTs/G)
A model of consistency over the previous five seasons when he
caught at least 100 balls four times and topped 1,000 yards four
times, Allen missed the better part of two months dealing with
a hamstring injury, leading to a 66-752-4 effort that was his
worst since 2016 when he missed all but one game due to a torn
ACL -- on the bright side, Allen’s per-game production remained
strong, as his 17-game pace was 112 receptions, 1,279 yards, and
7 touchdowns.
At 31, Allen is entering the latter stages of his career, though
elite athleticism was never his calling card, as he’s more
of a route technician with great hands, both of which are skills
that should continue to serve him well. Allen does have a lot
of mileage on his body, however, having now played 10 seasons
in the NFL, and though he’s not a full-fledged durability
risk, he hasn’t played an entire season since 2019. Target
him as a middling WR2 to mitigate your risk.
While he has definitely had his moments, Williams’ body
of work in six seasons since being the seventh overall pick leaves
something to be desired. Durability continues to be front and
center, more so than just the number of games missed would suggest,
as the Clemson product seems to be dinged up constantly, which
serves to undermine his consistency; that’s how you end
up with things like 10- and 15-yard games sandwiched around a
113-yard effort to open last season.
His size, raw talent, and ability to make contested catches have
made him a dangerous weapon in the red zone, though his yards
per catch have dropped three straight years, going from 20.4 YPC
in 2019 all the way down to 14.2 a year ago (that was his worst
number since he caught just 11 balls as a rookie). It’s
hard to imagine Williams’ inability to string together productive
efforts week in, and week out, didn’t play a role in LA
targeting a receiver in Round 1, thus lessening the degree to
which they’ll need to rely on the 28-year-old wideout this
year.
Rewind the clock to 2022, and it felt like Williams was pushing
for a spot as a top-20 receiver. Now, he’s better suited
as a decent No. 3 fantasy wideout that could carry you one week
and kill you the next. If you’re OK with that type of feast/famine
from your WR3, make the pick. If you want steadier value, Williams
isn’t the best choice.
Despite some real shortcomings defensively in 2022, the Bolts
elected to use their top pick on another weapon for Herbert in
the form of Johnston, a 6-foot-3, 208-pounder out of TCU. While
the Chargers already had real talent at the position, they didn’t
have anyone who could stretch the field the way Johnston can with
his excellent speed. In that way, the rookie fills an immediate
need and should be a nice match for Herbert, who boasts one of
the better arms in the NFL.
Two things will determine Johnston’s value in 2023: 1) his
ability to learn Moore’s offense, and 2) how many opportunities
he gets when both Allen and Williams are healthy. If Johnston
can pick things up quickly, he should see a lot of work, but if
he struggles it might be more of a situation where he’s
used on a limited route tree to loosen things up underneath. If
you’re looking for a late-round option with some upside,
Johnston could fit the bill as a WR5.
With Allen and Williams spending a fair amount of time in the
training room last year, Palmer emerged to finish second on the
club in both receptions (72) and receiving yards (769), more than
doubling his rookie output in both areas. His potential value
took a massive hit with the selection of Johnston, but Palmer
did enough in 2022 that he could be placed on your watch list
in case the Allen/Williams combo are beset by injuries again (or
Johnston is slow to transition to the pro game).
Playing for his third team in as many seasons last year, Everett
matched or established career highs across the board in 2022 with
58 receptions, 555 yards, and 4 touchdowns. While not a field-stretching
threat, the veteran was a reliable presence underneath for Herbert,
who threw a ton of short passes. Despite his numbers trending
up, there are reasons to be down on Everett for 2023, most notably
the hiring of Moore, who figures to install more vertical routes,
and selection of Johnston, who gives Herbert an exciting group
of receivers on the outside.
If you’re in a large enough league and are looking for
a steady backup tight end, Everett is someone to consider. In
standard formats he’s more of a watch-list candidate in
case his role turns out to be larger than expected under the new
offensive coordinator.
