He hasn’t blown up the box score, but Pacheco now has 10-straight
double-digit PPR games dating all the way back to Week 11. He’s
out-touched McKinnon 28 to 17 during the playoffs and seems to
be the fresher of the two KC running backs. His six targets (5-59)
in the AFC Championship game were a high-water mark for the season
and shows that Andy Reid is comfortable with Pacheco’s ability
as a receiver. The Eagles are middle of the pack against fantasy
running backs (16th) so Reid should be comfortable feeding Pacheco
15 to 17 carries should the game script work in the Chiefs favor.
Pacheco’s rushing prop of 48.5 (where you can find it) seems
appetizing. He’s topped that mark in 8 out of his last 10
games.
McKinnon’s blistering finish to the regular season hasn’t
continued into the playoffs. Five straight weeks of double-digit
PPR points ended in Week 17 and his 17 playoff touches have resulted
in just 43 scoreless yards ranking him as the RB23 in the post-season.
Given the state of the Chiefs wide receiver group, it would make
sense to get McKinnon going in the passing game especially if
the Eagles are successful getting pressure on Mahomes. But what
exactly has been going on the last couple weeks with his usage?
Is he playing through an ankle injury? The Chiefs haven’t
been listing many of their players on the injury report lately,
even removing Patrick Mahomes prior to the AFC Championship game
despite him obviously dealing with a high ankle sprain. Whatever
the case with McKinnon, it seems Pacheco has taken over this backfield,
leaving McKinnon’s value a little shaky heading into the
Super Bowl.
We’ve seen the Chiefs spread the ball around to their receivers
all year making it difficult for fantasy owners to rely on them
for consistency. Throw in the injury bug that ravaged them during
the AFC Championship game and you’ve got a big mess heading into
the Super Bowl. JuJu (knee), Toney (ankle) and Hardman (pelvis)
were all injured against the Bengals and Justin Watson missed
due to an illness. Smith-Schuster and Toney are likely to play
but I can’t trust either one of them (even with Hardman ruled
out) given how little we know about their health. One of the group
is likely to have a decent game but the lack of a clear matchup
advantage and injury concerns don’t allow for conviction on any
one player. Ohh by the way, the Eagles gave up the fourth-fewest
receiving yards (2205) to the position during the regular season.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
KC gave up the second-most TDs (20) to opposing WRs this season.
Only Dallas gave up more (22). DB L’Jarius Sneed (knee) has cleared
the concussion protocol and expected to plays despite being a
late addition to the injury report. The Chiefs like to blitz and
will play both man and zone at times. As a result, I’d slightly
lean towards Smith as a play in this matchup given he’ been more
involved in all areas of the field, but Brown is certainly capable
of posting a big game and easily the most physical receiver in
this game. During the regular season, Smith and Brown represented
80% of the passing targets in this offense and only four wide
receivers caught a pass - Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal being the
others. In their two playoff games, Brown (7-50-0) has seen 14
targets to Smith’s (8-97-1) 13.
There’s no doubt the Eagles are going to attempt to run
the ball. It’s what they do. They ranked 5th in rushing
yards per game (147.6) but Jalen Hurts accounted for 51 of those
yards on average and we know Philadelphia is perfectly fine giving
touches to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. In fact, Gainwell
has seen his snap percentage rise recently, playing 45 percent
of the snaps against San Francisco. He’s also seen the same
number of touches (28) as Sanders during the playoffs. Sanders
is perfectly capable of having a good game here even on low volume,
but he could just as easily end up with 50 yards and no scores.
He’s virtually non-existent in the passing game (20 receptions
this season) and only topped 20 rushing attempt three times this
season.