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Favorites & Fades


Super Bowl LVII

By: Mike Krueger | Ken Ilchuk | Nick Caron | HC Green
Updated: 2/10/23


Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Chiefs vs. Eagles - (Krueger)
Line: PHI -1.5
Total: 51.0

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle), TE Travis Kelce

Favorite: RB Isiah Pacheco

He hasnít blown up the box score, but Pacheco now has 10-straight double-digit PPR games dating all the way back to Week 11. Heís out-touched McKinnon 28 to 17 during the playoffs and seems to be the fresher of the two KC running backs. His six targets (5-59) in the AFC Championship game were a high-water mark for the season and shows that Andy Reid is comfortable with Pachecoís ability as a receiver. The Eagles are middle of the pack against fantasy running backs (16th) so Reid should be comfortable feeding Pacheco 15 to 17 carries should the game script work in the Chiefs favor. Pachecoís rushing prop of 48.5 (where you can find it) seems appetizing. Heís topped that mark in 8 out of his last 10 games.

On the Fence: RB Jerick McKinnon

McKinnonís blistering finish to the regular season hasnít continued into the playoffs. Five straight weeks of double-digit PPR points ended in Week 17 and his 17 playoff touches have resulted in just 43 scoreless yards ranking him as the RB23 in the post-season. Given the state of the Chiefs wide receiver group, it would make sense to get McKinnon going in the passing game especially if the Eagles are successful getting pressure on Mahomes. But what exactly has been going on the last couple weeks with his usage? Is he playing through an ankle injury? The Chiefs havenít been listing many of their players on the injury report lately, even removing Patrick Mahomes prior to the AFC Championship game despite him obviously dealing with a high ankle sprain. Whatever the case with McKinnon, it seems Pacheco has taken over this backfield, leaving McKinnonís value a little shaky heading into the Super Bowl.

Fade: WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney

Weíve seen the Chiefs spread the ball around to their receivers all year making it difficult for fantasy owners to rely on them for consistency. Throw in the injury bug that ravaged them during the AFC Championship game and youíve got a big mess heading into the Super Bowl. JuJu (knee), Toney (ankle) and Hardman (pelvis) were all injured against the Bengals and Justin Watson missed due to an illness. Smith-Schuster and Toney are likely to play but I canít trust either one of them (even with Hardman ruled out) given how little we know about their health. One of the group is likely to have a decent game but the lack of a clear matchup advantage and injury concerns donít allow for conviction on any one player. Ohh by the way, the Eagles gave up the fourth-fewest receiving yards (2205) to the position during the regular season.

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: QB Jalen Hurts

Favorite: WRs DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown

KC gave up the second-most TDs (20) to opposing WRs this season. Only Dallas gave up more (22). DB LíJarius Sneed (knee) has cleared the concussion protocol and expected to plays despite being a late addition to the injury report. The Chiefs like to blitz and will play both man and zone at times. As a result, Iíd slightly lean towards Smith as a play in this matchup given heí been more involved in all areas of the field, but Brown is certainly capable of posting a big game and easily the most physical receiver in this game. During the regular season, Smith and Brown represented 80% of the passing targets in this offense and only four wide receivers caught a pass - Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal being the others. In their two playoff games, Brown (7-50-0) has seen 14 targets to Smithís (8-97-1) 13.

On the Fence: RB Miles Sanders

There’s no doubt the Eagles are going to attempt to run the ball. It’s what they do. They ranked 5th in rushing yards per game (147.6) but Jalen Hurts accounted for 51 of those yards on average and we know Philadelphia is perfectly fine giving touches to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. In fact, Gainwell has seen his snap percentage rise recently, playing 45 percent of the snaps against San Francisco. He’s also seen the same number of touches (28) as Sanders during the playoffs. Sanders is perfectly capable of having a good game here even on low volume, but he could just as easily end up with 50 yards and no scores. He’s virtually non-existent in the passing game (20 receptions this season) and only topped 20 rushing attempt three times this season.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 23 ^ Top