Last week’s question: Do “power rankings” make good tiebreakers?

My column for Week 12 included questions from multiple readers about breaking ties according to “power rankings” (calculated in part as total wins vs. losses if all the teams in a fantasy league played each other every week).

I should have remembered that Bill, a long-time reader of the column, has used this method (which some people call “all-play”) for years:

Several years back, frustrated with the “bad luck” that hits teams every year, our league instituted a new rule. We would award the final playoff spot to the team with the best All-Play record. This has enabled several deserving teams to overcome bad luck, just last year one of our top teams finished with a 3-10 record but went on to be Super Bowl runner up.

I remember loving this idea when Bill first shared it. I continue to love it, and based on feedback from other readers, lots of other leagues use power rankings in creative ways to achieve similar outcomes. As Mark wrote:

We have a 10-team league split into two divisions. In your division you play each other twice and outside of division once for a 13-game season. The winners of each division make the playoffs as the top two seeds. There are two wildcards that are based on overall power ranking by CBS Sportsline. Power ranking is weighted 1/3 record, 1/3 total points, 1/3 breakdown vs. every team every week (your record as if you are playing each team each week). Teams are ranked 10 to 1 in each category and are given a power ranking score (30 is the best; 3 is the worst). We have used this for several years, and CBS Sportsline cumulatively calculates it for you each week. Some years wildcards are from the same division; other years there is one from each. Basically it gives a 2/3 weighting to the teams scoring the most so the best teams make the playoffs. The playoff race always comes down to the last week of the regular season as power rankings with three factors can make for a big jump each week.

Since Mark points out that meaningful rankings changes are possible even in the last week of the regular season, his approach should be especially attractive to leagues that want to keep owners motivated and competitive as long as possible.

I’ll close with Jim’s remarks because his league has been doing something similar to Mark’s for at least a decade now, and he sounds very pleased with the results:

In my league, three division winners get automatic berths into the playoffs. The other three spots are decided by a power poll which is figured using record, vs all record, and total points all weighted equally. We have been doing this for at least ten years. It gives teams like mine a chance; I am in last place in my division with the second worst record, but i am second in total points and second in vs all.

I received abundant positive feedback about this approach that needn’t be replicated here because it only echoes the endorsements above. And for what it’s worth, I didn’t receive a single note or comment from anyone who had any complaints about using power rankings for their fantasy playoffs. Anyone with additional feedback (especially concerning the downsides of power rankings as tiebreakers) is welcome to post a comment below or email me with their thoughts. My thanks to everyone who wrote in.

This Week’s Question: How are you doing on this season’s quick quarterly quizzes?

Since most fantasy leagues have their championships in Week 16, we officially concluded the third quarter of 2020’s fantasy season at the end of regulation on Wednesday afternoon.

Congrats to those playing along with this year’s series of quick quarterly quizzes (QQQs)--designed to help us spot our strengths and weaknesses by position with 10 short questions repeated each month (from preseason through Week 16). With data from the Week 12 games at our fingertips, we can now see how we’re doing three-fourths of the way through the regular season.

In this section of the column, I’ll be reviewing my answers from previous installments of this quiz & scoring them as if the 2020 season ended after 12 weeks. Correct answers from the preseason are worth 4 points each; correct answers from the end of the 1st quarter of the season are worth 3 points each; answers from the 2nd quarter of the season are worth 2 points each; and my answers for the 3rd quarter are provided below and will be scored in Week 17, when we will know for certain who the top 5 performers at each skill position are.

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 QBs of 2020 as:
1) Lamar Jackson
2) Patrick Mahomes
3) Dak Prescott
4) Kyler Murray
5) Russell Wilson

1st quarter rankings (based on PPR scoring in the FFToday Staff League on 10/7/20):

1) Dak Prescott
2) Russell Wilson
3) Josh Allen
4) Patrick Mahomes
5) Aaron Rodgers

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Patrick Mahomes
2) Russell Wilson
3) Kyler Murray
4) Josh Allen
5) Tom Brady

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20):
1) Patrick Mahomes
2) Kyler Murray
3) Russell Wilson
4) Aaron Rodgers
5) DeShaun Watson

Question 1) Which of these QBs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16? [Note: You can answer any question with ‘none’ or ‘all.’ Answers are updated at quarterly intervals throughout the season and cannot be repeated (except for ‘none’ or ‘all’ which are always available).]

My preseason answer: Mahomes (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Wilson (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Brady (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Murray (a direct contradiction of my preseason pick, but as the data changes, so should our opinions).

Question 2) Which of these QBs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Murray (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Rodgers (incorrect for 0 points).
My second quarter answer: Allen (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Watson (with Will Fuller missing 6 games, I don’t see how Watson can remain in this elite company).

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 RBs of 2020 as:
1) Christian McCaffrey
2) Saquon Barkley
3) Dalvin Cook
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) Derrick Henry

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Aaron Jones
3) Dalvin Cook
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) Chris Carson

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Dalvin Cook
3) Derrick Henry
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) James Robinson

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20)
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Dalvin Cook
3) Derrick Henry
4) James Robinson
5) Antonio Gibson

Question 3) Which of these RBs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Elliott (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Kamara (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Cook (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Henry (I must contradict my preseason answer to #4 because I was clearly wrong to assume that Henry would wear down by midseason under his workload in Tennessee).

Question 4) Which of these RBs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Henry (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Carson (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Robinson (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Gibson (I’m probably making the same mistake I made with Robinson last month by underestimating where this player can end up just because I don’t trust the team he’s on).

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 WRs of 2020 as:
1) Michael Thomas
2) Davante Adams
3) Julio Jones
4) Tyreek Hill
5) DeAndre Hopkins

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Amari Cooper
2) DeAndre Hopkins
3) Calvin Ridley
4) Tyler Lockett
5) Stefon Diggs

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Tyler Lockett
2) Calvin Ridley
3) D.K. Metcalf
4) DeAndre Hopkins
5) Tyreek Hill

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTS scoring on 12/2/20)
1) Tyreek Hill
2) Davante Adams
3) D.K. Metcalf
4) Keenan Allen
5) Stefon Diggs

Question 5) Which of these WRs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Jones (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Hopkins (incorrect for 0 points).
My second quarter answer: Lockett (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Adams (because I can’t keep other receivers in my top 5 any better than Green Bay can keep alternatives to Adams on the active roster).

Question 6) Which of these WRs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Hill (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Cooper (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Metcalf (incorrect for 0 points because I picked the wrong Seahawk).
My third quarter answer: Diggs (because Buffalo’s final 4 games are against great defenses like Pittsburgh or anemic offenses like SF, Denver, and New England).

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 TEs of 2020 as:
1) Travis Kelce
2) George Kittle
3) Zach Ertz
4) Mark Andrews
5) Darren Waller

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Robert Tonyan
3) Darren Waller
4) Noah Fant
5) Mark Andrews

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Darren Waller
3) George Kittle
4) T. J. Hockenson
5) Robert Tonyan

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Darren Waller
3) T.J. Hockenson
4) Robert Tonyan
5) Mark Andrews

Question 7) Which of these TEs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Kelce (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Tonyan (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Hockenson (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Waller (forced by reality to contradict my bad preseason call).

Question 8) Which of these TEs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Waller (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Andrews (incorrect for 0 points).
My second quarter answer: Kittle (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: None (even if Andrews slips out of the top 5, I expect the other 4 to remain atop the rankings).

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 defenses of 2020 as:
1) Rams
2) Steelers
3) Chiefs
4) Patriots
5) 49ers

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Colts
2) Ravens
3) Buccaneers
4) Chiefs
5) Patriots

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Ravens
2) Colts
3) Steelers
4) Buccaneers
5) Chiefs

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20):
1) Steelers
2) Dolphins
3) Colts
4) Ravens
5) Saints

Question 9) Which of these defenses do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Steelers (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Colts (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Ravens (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Dolphins (even though I think Fitz gives Miami a better shot at the playoffs, sticking with Tua should help the defense by generating fewer turnovers).

Question 10) Which of these defenses do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Patriots (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Chiefs (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Buccaneers (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Saints (who only have 1 inept offense--Philadelphia--left on their schedule).

Even if you missed the chance to start the quiz series earlier, feel free to join in now. You can post your answers publicly in the comment section below or email them to me. Maybe someone out there is as bad at picking defenses as I am at picking WRs. If so, let me know about it.

Survivor Pool Pick (Courtesy of Matthew Schiff)

#3: Raiders over Jets: 7-5 (BAL, KC, az, sf, LAR, minn, wash, PHL, PIT, GB, mia, NYG)

The Raiders travel to NY to beat up on the winless Jets. Adam Gase and his crew will have Sam Darnold under center, and the Jets will probably generate some offense against a suspect Raider defense. But can they outscore the Raiders? Although it’s possible that the Raiders could turn in another offensive performance as dismal as their Week 12 game against Atlanta, that hasn’t been typical of them this season. Josh Jacobs is optimistic about playing, but even if he can’t take the field, the Jets (who may be more interested in Trevor Lawrence than in defeating Las Vegas) are one of the few teams in the NFL that the Raiders should be able to handle with Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard. If Al Davis were still around in 2020, he might amend his catchphrase to: “Just win, baby--and if you’re not sure you can win, play against Adam Gase.”

#2: Seattle over NY Giants: 8-4 (ind, AZ, TB, BAL, sf, MIA, LAC, KC, NE, CLE, min, sf)

The Seahawks find themselves atop the NFC West at 8-3 with a home game against a streaking Giants team lacking its leader, Daniel Jones. Yes, the Gmen are in first place in the woeful NFC East--and probably only need to win two of their remaining games to win the division. Going into Seattle is a tough task with everyone healthy, but Colt McCoy will be at the helm of this ship. He is no Russell Wilson, and no New York receiver matches DK Metcalf. Yes, Jabrill Peppers was brought in for just this type of matchup, but is that enough? This Giants fan wishes that it was, but you can take the visitor, only with the points.

#1: Minnesota over Jacksonville: 11-1 (KC, GB, IND, LAR, BAL, ne, BUF, TB, HOU, LV, LAC, CLE)

The Vikings remain in the playoff hunt and have drawn the Jaguars, who haven’t won a game since Week 1. If this week is like every week since Week 2…. Dalvin Cook and company should be able to easily win this one at home. We could get into a lot of analysis, but this one is pretty straightforward. (P.S. If you haven’t used the Dolphins yet, they are a perfect pick this week, even though they’re unavailable to me, since I’ve used them in every slot.)