Last Week's Question: What draft slot
belonged to the person in first place in your league?
Last week, I shared
Jay's theory that because of injuries, suspensions, and disappointing
starts, the first round of most drafts in standard redrafter leagues
was mostly irrelevant. Jay surmised that the key to his success
is that he got the first pick in his league in round 2 (though it
didn't hurt that he used that pick on Marshawn Lynch).
I spent a few paragraphs of my Week 5 column explaining how disappointing
most first-round selections were, but this response from Gerry concerning
the first two rounds of his draft lays the matter out with even
more clarity:
Remember that Jay shared his theory before the Week 5 games were
in the books, back before Demaryius Thomas exploded against Arizona
and Eddie Lacy got well against Minnesota. If you were building
your fantasy team right now, would you be more inclined to choose
from the round 2 selections than those in round 1? Before the season
began, we all talked up McCoy, Charles, and Forte, but now that
it's underway, we're envious of the owners who picked up Murray,
Lynch, and Foster. Did you trade up in your draft to snag Thomas
or Johnson at wide-out? You would have been better served trading
down and "settling" for Jones or Bryant. I wouldn't usually
burn either of my first two picks on a QB not named Peyton Manning,
but Cutler (round 2) has been about as productive as Rodgers (round
1)--and way more consistent.
So what did the feedback to my question suggest? Was Jay right?
Did drafting late in the first round translate to success by forcing
owners who might otherwise have preferred Eddie Lacy to "settle"
for DeMarco Murray?
Picking late (9th out of 12) worked out just fine for Gerry, who
is in first place in his league. But he doesn't think that his first
two picks (Johnson and Murray) tell the story. As he explains, "DMurray
and ALuck have both helped me, [and] picking up DWalker on waivers
was a smart move. Asiata helped me last week. Streaming DSTs has
also helped."
His response hints at a few of the limitations of a survey such
as mine. The problem isn't just that the best fantasy QB in the
league (Luck) wasn't selected until well after round 2 in most leagues;
it's primarily that those who responded to my question were generally
motivated to do so by a desire to prove Jay's theory right or wrong.
Even so, I received enough feedback to say that I saw no trend to
confirm that picking late in round 1 translated to success in 2014.
Consider Alan, who picked 5th (which is definitely the middle--not
late), and is currently in first place in his league after having
selected Matt Forte and Jordy Nelson with his first two choices.
He credits his success to Doug
Orth's Big Board, which would presumably have worked just fine
for him no matter what position he was assigned.
I heard from a number of readers who clearly wanted to endorse Jay's
theory, such as Larry, who writes:
I agree with your late drafter theory for this
year. We are a single-keeper league which skews the first 2 rounds
a bit. My response to your questions:
1) What was the draft position of the team currently in first place
in your league? Here is current order by draft slot: 5-9-8-3-4-10-6-7-2-1.
Note that drafters 1 & 2 are 0-4 although drafter 7 is lowest
points (Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green) Drafter 5 has never made the
playoffs.
2) What player was selected with that team's top pick? CALVIN JOHNSON
3) What player was selected with that team's second pick? GIOVANI
BERNARD
4) What was your draft position in your league, and what place are
you in now? SECOND, CURRENTLY NINTH
5) What player did you select with your first pick? JAMAAL CHARLES
6) What player did you select with your second pick? JORDY NELSON
Larry acknowledges that the keeper aspect of his league "skews"
the data, but once we start introducing keepers (whether it's one
per team or more), the likelihood of a first round that looks anything
like the one from Gerry plummets to infinitesimal. Larry's experience
plainly corresponds with Jay's, but my survey was regrettably too
superficial for that correspondence to appear anything more than
coincidental.
For every response like Larry's, I also got one from a reader like
Michael, who had the first choice in his draft and is in first place
in his league (having picked up Forte and Alfred Morris with his
first two picks). And if you're wondering how the tandem of Forte
and Morris translates to first place, well, again, the answer probably
has something to do with what happened later in the draft.
As Bill (who drafted AP and Randall Cobb with his first two picks)
explains:
I'm 3-1, not because of my first 2 picks, but
mainly because I took Andrew Luck in Round 5 and was quick to pick-up
Matt Asiata once the Peterson news broke. The owner that is 4-0
is 4-0 mainly because of Philip Rivers, whom he drafted in the 10th
round (though Murray has been a beast so far as well).
The four teams that are 1-3 drafted 2nd, 7th, 9th, and 12th.
Obviously, drafts are dynamic, and a survey such as mine cannot
account for disparities between league rules. In Richard's league
(which requires owners to start 2 QBs), the team in first place
selected Andrew Luck in the first round and Big Ben in the second,
but that wouldn't happen in (or be relevant to) more conventional
leagues.
I want to thank everyone who wrote in, but it wouldn't be a good
use of space (or of the attention of my audience) to go through
all the responses and qualify the leagues in question as pure redrafter
leagues, keeper leagues, multiple QB leagues, optional TE leagues,
flex player leagues, PPR leagues, etc. What I can say after sifting
through all the responses is that some people who drafted later
in round 1 are near the top of the standings; some are near the
middle; and some are at the bottom.
And as for my Peyton Manning theory (the idea that in a mostly wasted
round 1, Manning is the only player who has consistently lived up
to expectations), it doesn't seem to be any sounder than Jay's.
Only two readers reported that the person who drafted Manning is
currently in first place.
I think the moral of the story is that we should worry less about
what draft slot we are assigned and more about paying attention
to Doug Orth!
This Week's Question: Can you give me
an EXAMPLE of how your commissioner leads by example?
I'm asking this question as a response to a fairly negative assessment
of a commissioner I received from an owner. I may feature that note
next week, but I prefer to start with the positive side of things.
It does no good for me to tell FFers that even though some commissioners
are ignorant, lazy, or even dishonest, most are diligent, hardworking,
and trustworthy. Those are just adjectives, and adjectives are cheap.
I would like to have some stories about things commissioners have
done right. I don't need you to tell me that your commissioner has
the wisdom of Solomon because of that one time he threatened to
cut Marshall Faulk in half, but I would like to hear about the practical
ways in which your commissioner leads by example.
Does he help set the tone of fair trading by engaging in fair trades?
Does he stay active even after getting off to a 0-5 start? Please
don't say he "has integrity." Tell me
a story that demonstrates his integrity--the more specific,
the better. And if the anecdote is from the current season, that
would be great (although I will of course be willing to feature
anecdotes from the 2013 season and earlier).
Survivor Picks - Week 6 (Courtesy of
Matthew Schiff)
If you are still in your Survival Pool, good for you. Last week
was a nail biter on a number of games, inclusive of my #2 pick –
another dud. This prognosticator is apparently having a problem
with his crystal ball on that pick. But if you have used our #1
picks, you are still in the thick of it. So let’s see if we
can stay perfect with that pick this season.
Trap Game: Tennessee over Jacksonville
It would be so easy to say the Titans win this game at home “running
away.” But after losing a game to Cleveland at home where
they were winning 28-3, it’s hard to categorize any game involving
the Titans as a “lock.” The Titans give up the sixth
most points per game (27.8), but they will face a Jaguars team that
is dead last in points allowed (33.8). Although few people will
be watching the slugfest between these two AFC South rivals this
weekend, it may provide the most combined points in an NFL game
in 2014. Since this game may come down to who has the ball last,
don’t rest your survival pool hopes on a Titans team that
can’t even remember what good defense looks like.
#3: San Diego over Oakland (4-1: Pit, NO,
CIN, SF, CLE):
The Chargers have found something in Branden Oliver out of the backfield,
and Philip Rivers may now have a consistent threat that can handle
the draw and set up the play-action pass. Not since the days of
Ladainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles has the San Diego QB had
a legitimate rushing threat that opposing defenses had to account
for. It’s just unfortunate that the Raiders can’t find
the same magic in their roster. They have instead turned to the
voodoo of former Dolphins coach Tony Sparano, who buried a football
at practice to symbolize the death of the first quarter of their
season. (Some paranormal experts claimed they heard the ghost of
Al Davis playing "Taps" in the background, but it was
probably for himself, as he remains an egomaniac even in death.)
Don’t look for this “new” Raiders team to find
a formula that can score many points against a Chargers team that
yields only 12 points per game. It should also be noted that there
are few games left on San Diego’s schedule against opponents
as weak as the Raiders. Be advised that this may be the last time
you feel comfortable using the Chargers in your survival pool.
#2: Denver over NY Jets (1-4: CHI, Sea, NO,
TB, DET):
The Denver Broncos look to Ronnie Hillman to fill in for the injured
Montee Ball, and hope that he can do his best Branden Oliver impression.
Last week, Philip Rivers shredded the Jet defense for 288 yards
and three touchdowns, while Oliver rushed for over 100 yards and
had almost 70 yards receiving in a shutout victory over a team that
is finding it hard to win in 2014 (on the road or at home). Unfortunately
for New York, things will probably get worse before they get better.
For now, the Jets have to face Peyton Manning, who has a lot more
weapons than Rivers' cadre of no-name wide-outs. If the boo-birds
get vocal early in this one (as is possible), then so much for whatever
home-field advantage the Jets may be counting on as they attempt
to make good on Rex Ryan's claim that the team “won’t
be embarrassing by the end of the season.” It's a good thing
they aren't playing Denver at the end of the season because this
one has all the makings of a blowout.
Image by Tilt Creative (Ty
Schiff)
#1: Seattle over Dallas (5-0: PHI, DEN,
NE, SD, GB):
The Seahawks seem to be in a class by themselves this year, as
they keep giving us weekly reminders of why they are the reigning
Super Bowl champions. Almost unstoppable at home with their 12th
man, the Seahawks' only home loss over the last two and half seasons
(since Russell Wilson joined the team) was against the Arizona
Cardinals in week 16 of 2013. As for Dallas, in spite of a new
offensive line that is opening large holes for DeMarco Murray,
the Cowboys may find it extremely difficult to make hay against
Seattle's #1 rushing defense, which has allowed only 2.6 yards
per carry as well as only one rushing touchdown this season. The
Cowboys lead the NFC East at 4-1, but Tony Romo has been average,
and this matchup is a formula for failure should the Cowboys have
to rely on him to win the game. As such, take the Super Bowl champs
at home and enjoy the performance of a disciplined, hard-hitting
team that is probably one of the most well-rounded squads in the
NFL in the last 20+ years.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999.
As a landlocked Oklahoman who longs for the sound of ocean waves,
he also writes about ocean colonization under the pen name Studio
Dongo. The latest installment in his science fiction series can
be found here.
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