Green Bay’s run defense was exposed again last Thursday night by
an Eagles team that hadn’t been able to do anything on the ground
yet this season. So far this year the Pack have given up big chunks
of yardage to Dalvin
Cook, and the tandem backfields of Denver and Philly. Zeke and
the Cowboys were uncharacteristically shut down on the ground last
week in New Orleans, and with their starting left tackle out, look
for a brand of smash mouth football from the Cowboys, both to protect
Dak, and to keep Aaron
Rodgers off the field. In what should be a close game into the
4th quarter, game script favors Elliott in a game he could see 30
touches. Fire him up as a top-3 option.
It’s been a slow steady climb for Sanders this season. After
opening the year with two clunkers, Sanders has flashed some big-play
ability the past two weeks, including a 126 total-yard day against
Detroit, and 72 yards (6.5 carry average) on the ground in last
week’s win against Green Bay. Still stuck in a game-plan
based timeshare with Jordan Howard, I do expect Sanders to be
featured this week against the Jets, who will be without their
run-stuff defensive captain C.J. Mosely. New York has been gashed
on the ground the last two games, and 100-total yards and a score
could make Sanders an upside RB2/FLEX play in Week 5.
As a two-down back that has exactly one target on the season,
Michel isn’t what I normally want in a running back in this
slot. But the last time the Patriots played an offense this dreadful,
they won 33-0 and Michel had 21 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown,
numbers he should quite easily be able to reach in what should be
another rout. (I thought Super Bowl champions had a more difficult
schedule the following season?!?!). Always a potential victim of
a particular week’s scheme, it’s possible Michel has
5 carries for 27 yards as well, but after getting beat up last week
in Buffalo I think New England pounds the ball in a game they should
dominate time of possession.
Don’t get me wrong, I think there is value to be had in
this backfield, but it seems to be anyone's guess where it will
come from. It looks as though Jones has grabbed the lead with
150 rushing yards and a score over the last two games. The problem
is that he’s still a virtual zero in the passing game and
this offense is at its most explosive when it’s throwing
the ball around to their duo of unstoppable receivers. New Orleans
has also been one of the best defenses against the run this season,
particularly last week, as they totally stifled Elliott and the
Cowboys. This could be an uptempo game, a scenario that wouldn’t
necessarily favor either back, I need to see more before I commit
to either guy, so I’m avoiding both for now.
While they prepare the spot in Canton for his bust, fantasy owners
should be prepared to sit Gore this week. He’s been a quality
FLEX play over the last two weeks, but that was without rookie
sensation Devin Singletary, who is due back this week after missing
a few games with a hamstring injury. Relying on smarts, vision
and balance has kept Gore relevant, but his lack of lateral agility,
passing game work, and straight line speed, Gore is going to find
the yards hard to come by in tough defensive matchup. The opponent
and return of Singletary make Gore a tough start in only the deepest
of leagues.
Another potential match-up victim this week is Marlon Mack. We
saw last week against the Raiders when the Colts went down early,
that he simply gets removed from the game in favor of Nyhiem Hines
in passing situations (Mack has only 4 receptions on 6 targets
this season). With gameflow expected to be similar this week against
the high flying Chiefs, it’s doubtful that Mack gets enough
carries to be a difference maker. Last season in the Divisional
round against the Chiefs he only had 9 touches for 51 uninspiring
yards. A similar stat-line this week will sink your chances of
winning, so proceed with extreme caution.
