A few things stuck out to me as I prepared this write-up about Dalton.
The first tidbit was that he actually finished in the top 12 of
overall quarterback scoring despite not having a game with more
than 2 touchdowns and only 18 total passing scores. This is probably
more of an indictment of injuries hitting some major young stars,
but I digress. The second was that his finish came with top targets,
A.J. Green, and Tyler Eifert missing a combined 14 games last season.
Dalton was white hot out of the gates with two straight 360-plus
yard games, and eventually piled up a near career high 4,206 yards
passing.
Even if his touchdown numbers don’t pop off the page, Dalton has
underrated arm strength and athleticism. He should have Green and
Eifert healthy and ready to go starting in Week 1, and the Bengals
added a dynamic back in Joe Mixon and blazing receiver in John Ross.
Dalton is going to possibly have the finest set of skill position
players he’s had since he’s been in the NFL which should translate
into better overall numbers.
Despite the improvement in final stats, I think Dalton is due for
a regression in overall finish. He was able to get into the top-12
due to injuries to young guns like David Carr, Cam Newton, and Marcus
Mariota. He was also harassed and sacked 41 times last season (7th
worst in the league) behind an offensive line that seems to have
gotten worse on paper. If I’m waiting to draft a quarterback
late, I’m simply going to go with players with a higher ceiling
than Dalton. Cinci is going to lean on the running game and a young
aggressive defense to stay in games and that leads to a much lower
attempt total. Other than elite top tier quarterbacks, fantasy signal
callers need volume for production, and I just don’t know
that Dalton is going to get it. Consider The Red Rifle a fine fantasy
back-up that won’t kill you if you’re forced to start
him but won’t give you a match-up advantage either.
Thinking of drafting Joe Mixon as your
RB2? There are some serious roadblocks to consider.
If you have Mixon off your board for personal reasons, much respect
to you. I have a more cynical view when it comes to fantasy football.
If a player’s off-field behavior won’t affect their
weekly availability (i.e. suspensions), I’m interested. And
when it comes to Joe Mixon’s talent and on-field potential,
I’m very interested. Mixon’s blend of power, speed,
and versatility made him possibly the most gifted running back in
the draft this spring. His actions off the field led to his fall.
Can the Bengals and fantasy owners benefit?
As runners like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell become the
new hotness, many owners want to find their own versions of game-changing
dual threat backs. Mixon has this kind of potential, finishing with
1,900 total yards from scrimmage last season at Oklahoma. There’s
been news out of camp that Mixon is going to get the bulk of the
work right from the get-go, but as much as I want to believe Mixon
has that potential in 2017, there are some serious roadblocks to
consider. The first are fellow teammates Gio Bernard and Jeremy
Hill. Bernard has been the Bengals’ resident dual threat.
He’s coming off a torn ACL, and was expected to miss much
of camp. But he’s been on the field since the start and has
apparently surprised coaches and teammates with his recovery. Hill
has been a huge disappointment since his tantalizing rookie year
in 2014. With that said he’s still only 24, and has the support
of the coaching staff. With Hill likely to steal goal line work,
Mixon’s upside is limited.
The 2nd and possibly bigger problem for Mixon is the state of the
Bengals line. They weren’t world beating last year, and they’ve
lost their two best starters in the off-season. Despite being a
need area, the line was hardly addressed in the draft or with an
impact free agent. One knock on Mixon in the pre-draft process was
vision, and finding the holes when the offensive line isn’t
mauling people is vital.
I’ve devoted this much space to Mixon because I believe he
could be the next game changing fantasy runner, but I just don’t
believe it will be in 2017. With Bernard and Hill still having roles
and Mixon a controversial rookie, the Bengals might ease in their
newest asset. Mixon has RB1 talent, but as things stand in early
August, and until I see the coaching staff back up the chatter,
I think a low end RB2 finish is more realistic.
Bernard was having trouble holding a ton of value even before going
down in Week 10 with a torn ACL. Outside of a huge 9-catch, 100-yard
receiving day in Week 2, Bernard wasn’t producing his typical
numbers in the air, failing to surpass 50 yards or 5 receptions.
Seeing as much of his value in standard leagues (and especially
PPR leagues) came via the air, this was a letdown for fantasy owners.
Cincinnati seems to have never seen Bernard as a lead back, and
with the addition of rookie Joe Mixon, this is more evident than
ever.
The good news for Bernard is that his recovery from ACL surgery
seems to have been flawless, and he’s making noise in camp. I don’t
think the Bengals anticipated having Bernard for meaningful snaps
to start the season, but now that they do, this will change the
backfield rotation significantly. Look for Jeremy Hill to remain
the goal-line back, and for Bernard to be the 3rd down and no-huddle
option. At least early on, look for Mixon to be sprinkled in, and
Bernard to be good for 8-10 touches a game. I don't know that this
changes much as the season goes on, so I have real trouble finding
a place for Bernard in standard leagues. It’s simply not enough
volume for a guy who averages around 4 yards-per-carry for his career.
So while the injury risk isn’t as big as it once was, the development
of Mixon weighs more heavily on Bernard's value. Add Gio as one
of the last runners on your roster and hope Mixon gets off to a
slow start I guess.
Hill’s career arc has trended way down since his glorious
rookie season. In recent years his utter lack of big play ability
and role in the passing game has held the offense back, and combined
with the injury to Gio Bernard, led Cincinnati to take the risk
of adding Mixon in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft. Ball security
and confidence has seemed to sap Hill or his effectiveness, this
despite the Bengals sticking with him through thick and thin. And
that’s the rip. This coaching staff has maintained staunch
support for the 4th year back, so he’s going to have a role.
Let’s not forget that Hill has scored 30 touchdowns in his
career and has averaged 10-plus fantasy points per game all three
seasons. I know he’s struggled mightily and Mixon was added
to the mix, but Hill is barely being drafted as one of the top-50
running backs currently and I think that’s criminally low.
I don’t see the huge regression in carries that most do, and
he’ll still be the preferred option at the goal line. His
PPR value is dreadful, but in standard leagues I’d be more
than happy to add a 24-year old runner that has finished as the
RB21, RB14, and RB10, despite “under producing”. Cincinnati
will stick with Hill until Mixon forces their hand. Watch this backfield
closely this preseason. Hill could provide some huge value compared
to where you can get him in drafts.
Before going down with a serious hamstring injury in Week 11, A.J.
Green was having a career season. In only 10 games, Green had racked
up 66 receptions and nearly 1,000 yards. Among the ten games he
played in, Green went over 150 yards three times, and was well on
his way to being the overall WR1.
Injuries have been a part of the Green story two of the past three
years. He’s missed ten games in that span, but when he’s
been on the field he’s been easily a top 5 player at his position.
His size/speed combination is nearly on par with Julio Jones, and
he’s demonstrated some tangible chemistry with Andy Dalton
over the years. Green is still in the prime of his career, and has
several guys around him that will help keep the defense from focusing
too much of their attention on him. Green will continue to be peppered
with targets, but the addition of Mixon should mean the Bengals
will have an improved running game, so getting past 130 targets
might be stretch. Conversely, if the running game doesn't gel, Green
has the highest upside out of any receiver not named Beckham or
Jones. He’s one of a handful of guys with the talent and opportunity
to be the highest scoring player at his position.
Brought in to replace the departed Marvin Jones, LaFell had a surprisingly
productive first year with the Bengals. It was a solid bounce-back
effort after a poor final year in New England. He had a few strong
games down the stretch, and helped to stem the bleeding after the
Cincinnati offense became ravaged by injuries.
With the return of A.J. Green, and the drafting of John Ross in
the 1st round and Mixon in the 2nd, LaFell has a near zero chance
to repeat his WR3 finish from 2016. He figures to drop to 4th or
5th in the pecking order, and probably will revert to the early
career numbers he put up in Carolina. If Ross doesn’t develop,
and there are more injuries to the core of pass catchers it might
be worth adding LaFell as a waiver add, but for now, I don’t
think he’s worth the draft pick.
A DeSean Jackson clone from head to toe, Ross, the 9th overall
pick in the 2017 draft provides the Bengals offense with the true
vertical threat they have been missing. One of the fastest players
in the draft, Ross had medical red flags coming out of Washington
and missed most of off-season workouts recovering from a shoulder
injury. Still not 100%, Ross has been cleared to practice and
that should put him on track to make an impact. Unfortunately
for fantasy owners, that impact may not be much this season. Ross
has the speed and quickness to play a number of receiver roles,
but I have the feeling that Ross will serve as the lid lifter
and kick returner during his rookie year. He may hit a few homeruns
this year, but simply won’t be reliable enough on a weekly
basis to be anything better than an end of the roster gamble.
Decimated by ankle and back injuries the past several seasons,
Eifert is one of the biggest risk/reward picks in all of fantasy.
Eifert has the role and ability to be a top-3 scoring tight end,
something he did when he scored 13 touchdowns in 13 games in 2015.
He proved his touchdown scoring was no fluke, as he piled up 5
scores in 8 games last season. He was so good during the half
season he played, that his 8.7 standard fantasy points per game
was tied with Jordan Reed for 2nd best at the position.
Eifert is a huge injury risk, but the reward is just too good
to pass up. If he can play a full season he’s a near lock
for double digit touchdowns. I’m not going to reach for
him in drafts, but I don’t think you’ll be able to
wait too long either. Just make sure you grab some insurance later
on!
