While savvy waiver wire moves and strategic trades are crucial, your fantasy football draft remains the cornerstone of a successful season. Championship teams are often built on draft day, where securing value can make or break your roster. Smart drafters know that identifying must-have targets is only half the battle; recognizing overvalued players is equally critical to constructing a contender.

Below are 10 players who raise significant concerns at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). While I'm not writing them off entirely, each is being selected earlier than I'm comfortable with.

All ADP data reflects Half-PPR league formats.

RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles (ADP: 3.5)

As an Eagles fan, it pains me to say I'm avoiding Saquon Barkley at his current ADP, or anywhere in the first round. After a historic 2024 season, Barkley (28) seems poised for regression. Last year, he amassed 378 touches in the regular season (482 including playoffs) on an Eagles team that ran the ball a league-leading 56% of the time. History suggests a significant decline follows such a heavy workload. While still a talented player, safer options with comparable upside are available within the first 12 picks. Drafting Barkley in the top five is like buying a stock at its all-time high -- rarely a wise move.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (ADP: 9.5)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted three consecutive seasons with over 100 catches and 1,100 yards, culminating in a career-high 12 touchdowns in 2024. However, several red flags suggest a potential dip in 2025. The departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, under whom St. Brown thrived, is a major concern. While some of Johnson's schemes may remain, we've seen production drop when key coordinators leave. Additionally, St. Brown's target share has dipped the last three seasons (28.1%, 27.7%, 27.2%), a trend I expect to continue. Expect TE Sam LaPorta, coming off a down year, and Jameson Williams, who emerged late last season, to command larger roles in the offense. With players offering higher upside and similar floors available at his ADP, I'm passing on St. Brown.

WR D.J. Moore, Bears (ADP: 45.5)

The arrival of Ben Johnson as the Bears' head coach has boosted D.J. Moore's ADP this offseason. However, banking on Moore at this cost assumes the Bears' offense will seamlessly translate paper potential into on-field success-a risky bet in Year 1 of Johnson's system. For Moore to meet or exceed his ADP, the offense must adapt quickly to the new scheme (reports from camp suggest struggles), Caleb Williams must make a significant Year 2 leap (not yet evident), and Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III must underperform. Too many variables make Moore a risky pick in the top 50, and I've avoided him in every draft in this range.

RB Alvin Kamara, Saints (ADP: 50)

Kamara was a bright spot for the Saints in 2024, posting solid fantasy numbers (950-6; 68-543-2) before missing the final three games due to injury. Now entering his age-30 season on a team projected to be among the NFL's worst, Kamara faces significant risks. His injury history -- he hasn't played more than 15 games since his rookie year -- is a concern, but the Saints' overall outlook is the bigger issue. With one of the lowest Vegas win totals (5.5) and a potentially league-worst quarterback situation, the Saints could shift to tank mode by mid-to-late season. In such a scenario, there's little incentive for Kamara to rack up the 15+ touches fantasy managers expect, especially during the fantasy playoffs. I'm fading him at his current ADP.

RB Joe Mixon, Texans (ADP: 59.0)

Mixon is my firmest avoid this season. At 29, he's dealing with a foot injury that will sideline him for all of training camp, and plays behind one of the NFL's worst offensive lines. Despite a productive 2024, Mixon's advanced metrics -- 30th in yards per touch and 26th in yards created per touch -- raise concerns. His fantasy value relies heavily on volume and touchdowns, but the injury, the additions of Nick Chubb and Woody Marks, and a likely pass-heavy Texans offense make that volume unlikely. Mixon would need to fall significantly for me to consider drafting him.

RB James Conner, Cardinals (ADP: 51.5)

James Conner finally stayed healthy in 2024, missing just one game (Week 18) and finishing as a top-10 fantasy RB. However, I'm hesitant to buy high on a 30-year-old with a lengthy injury history. Rookie Trey Benson, a 2024 third-round pick, is poised for a larger role, with Conner himself acknowledging Benson as a co-RB1. Additionally, increased production from Marvin Harrison Jr. and continued high volume for Trey McBride, who's due for touchdown regression, could reduce Conner's touches. At his ADP, I prefer upside receivers like George Pickens, Jaylen Waddle, or Jameson Williams, who offer higher ceilings and safer floors.

WR Jordan Addison, Vikings (ADP: 71.5)

This may be a hot take, but I view Jordan Addison (3-game suspension) as a replaceable talent who's benefited from fortunate circumstances. In two seasons, he's totaled 133 receptions across 32 games, failing to reach 1,000 yards despite 108 and 99 targets. When Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson -- who missed a combined 16 games over that span -- are healthy, Addison is a complementary receiver with an unsustainably high touchdown rate. If his touchdowns normalize and the Vikings' top targets stay healthy, Addison becomes nearly unstartable. With J.J. McCarthy's performance an unknown, I'm fading Addison in the first eight rounds.

WR Jerry Jeudy, Browns (ADP: 74)

After a slow start with the Broncos, Jerry Jeudy enjoyed a career revival in 2024 with the Browns, setting personal bests in targets (145), catches (90), yards (1229), and games played (17). However, I'm skeptical of his ability to sustain this production. The Browns are Vegas favorites to be the NFL's lowest-scoring team (19.1 Pts/G), with a shaky quarterback situation and no true offensive stars. Like Kamara, Jeudy faces a team likely to struggle early and experiment with multiple quarterbacks. Without elite talent, especially in the quarterback room, it's going to be a challenge for Jeudy to produce consistent fantasy numbers. I'm avoiding him at his current ADP.

QB Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (ADP: 82.5)

Baker Mayfield, a fiery and entertaining quarterback, is one of my favorite NFL players, but I predict a significant step back in 2025. After a stellar 2024 (QB3), several red flags emerge. Chris Godwin's ongoing recovery from and ankle injury and Mike Evans' age (32 by the season's start) raise concerns about the receiving corps. The loss of OC Liam Coen, who led the Bucs to the third-most yards and fourth-most points per game, could disrupt the offense. Additionally, left tackle Tristan Wirfs' absence for multiple games weakens the line. With comparable quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud available later, I'm passing on Mayfield.

TE Tucker Kraft, Packers (ADP: 107)

A recent groin injury in camp may lower Tucker Kraft’s ADP, but I’m avoiding him within a full round of his current draft position. While I like Kraft in dynasty and best-ball formats, the Packers’ crowded pass-catching corps makes him a risky redraft pick. The addition of first-round rookie Matthew Golden signals the team’s intent to diversify its passing game. With Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson (knee), and Savion Williams all vying for targets, no single player stands out as dominant. This unpredictability makes Kraft an unreliable weekly starter. At his ADP, I prefer quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, or Justin Herbert, or waiting on tight ends like Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goedert, or Colston Loveland, who offer similar upside.