Week 17 2003
12/25/03
Email
Mike
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Last Week's Question
When I asked about playoff formats last week, I expected at least
a few readers to support the "Fantasy Focus" duo from
Monday Quarterback, but they didn't appear to have many fans at
FFToday. I guess if your segment airs in the middle of the afternoon
on Mondays, you aren't likely to be a hit with people who work for
a living (or, more accurately, people who use their computer terminals
to shirk their work in order to debate the finer points of fantasy
football via the Internet).
The most comprehensive response I received to my query came from
Dave, who said:
I run a 12-team league that is split into 3 divisions,
and we play a 14-week regular season. Six teams make the playoffs:
3 division winners and 3 wild card teams. The top 2 division winners
get a bye in Week 15. Our championship game does fall on the dreaded
last weekend of the season. I thought long and hard about shortening
the season to 13 weeks to avoid this, but that would mean either
not playing someone in another division at all or not playing
one of your division opponents twice. I didn't really care for
either of those choices.
I know I'm playing with fire by having the championship game
in Week 17, but over the past few years it hasn't been an issue.
With parity becoming the norm, most teams have something to play
for in Week 17, so it's not nearly as much of a risk as it used
to be. It's something I think about each off season, but for now
I prefer having a full regular season schedule.
Additionally, it adds another week of entertainment that the
other leagues are missing out on. That won't be any solace if
someone gets "screwed" in the championship game, but
the majority of my owners prefer having a 14-week regular season
and will live with the risk.
We used to only have 10 teams in the league and only 4 made the
playoffs so we were able to have a 14-week regular season and
have the championship game in Week 16. The first year we went
to 12 teams we kept the playoffs at only 4 teams, but there was
a huge outcry for two more teams so we made the switch. And now
that 6 teams make it, there's no way everyone will agree to reduce
it back to 4.
There are a couple of talk show hosts on radio in my area that
go a little overboard on this issue. They've basically said commissioners
that has their championship games in Week 17 are idiots and don't
know what they're doing. While I'm sure there are some leagues
that are clueless about the risks of having a championship game
in Week 17, we've carefully considered the pros and cons and made
a conscious choice to do it that way. I feel it's a matter of
preference and it depends on what everyone in the league prefers.
The other league I'm in ends in Week 16 and I'm ok with it, but
I hate missing out on that other week. I may feel differently
in a few years if teams start running away with home field advantage,
but that's highly unlikely. Everyone thought the Chiefs were going
to do that this year (anyone who thought that obviously didn't
watch any of their earlier games and see their defense really
wasn't very good), and now they're fighting for home field with
New England & Indianapolis.
And while I agree with those so-called fantasy experts [Mike
mentioned from] ESPN that it's ok to have a championship game
in Week 17, I don't agree with them that even if players do get
rested it's ok because it just adds to the strategy. I'm pretty
sure I'm in the minority on this one, but I'm holding out for
now.
Clearly Dave and the folks in his league understand what they
are doing and why they are doing it. They have ended up with a
format that they enjoy, and there is no reason for them to change
it if they are happy with it the way it is. However, if Dave wants
to avoid taking the chances that come with playing championships
in Week 17, he might want to consider scheduling double-weeks
at some point during the regular season. In my league, we have
4 such weeks, which enables us to have a 16-week season even though
our playoffs start in Week 13. Ordinarily, each team in my league
plays a single head-to-head match-up each week. But in weeks 3,
6, 9, and 12, each team plays 2 different opponents (one intra-divisional
and one inter-divisional match-up). This way, even though we only
have twelve weeks of regular season play, we still end up having
played 16 regular season games before the playoffs begin. Of course,
the people in Dave's league might object to this system as being
unfair to those who just happen to have bad outings on the weeks
when they have to play two different fantasy squads, but it is
an option that some leagues might want to consider.
At the end of his response, Dave alluded quite diplomatically
to the "Fantasy Focus" guys I mentioned last week. Andrew
did not bother with diplomacy:
The suggestion that week 17 benchings add to 'strategy' is ludicrous.
There's a ton of churn in playoff teams every year, so you can't
build a [hungry] week 17 team into your draft. You won't get it
right; it's just too damn hard. Secondly, the week 17 Super Bowl
kills dynasty leagues. Here's what happened to me: 2 years ago
the Eagles were playing the Bucs on Sunday, with an imminent meeting
the next week in the playoffs. In our Super Bowl, I started McNabb
and Keyshawn Johnson. Neither played. Nevertheless, I couldn't
release them and go looking for other guys because I wanted to
keep them going into the next year.
Andrew is not alone in his frustration, and frustration is not
limited to dynasty leagues. As Randy points out:
The vast majority of FF leagues I have been in take
the top four teams (according to W-L record) and have the playoffs
during Weeks 15 and 16. One of the problems with this is that
the "best" team often doesn't make the playoffs because
it seems everybody has their best week against them. Another problem
with this is that for many of the teams in the league, Weeks 15
-17 have no meaning.
We solved this in two of our leagues. In one of them, the top
four teams still go to the playoffs during Weeks 15-16. But we
have a toilet bowl tournament Weeks 15-17 for the others. The
winner of the toilet bowl doesn't get much, but it gives the other
teams a reason to play the final weeks. In addition, we have a
pool for the highest total points during Weeks 15-17. That way,
all teams have a stake the final three weeks. However, we keep
the championship game away from Week 17 because the championship
is too important to have your best guys potentially sitting on
the bench resting for the NFL playoffs.
In another league, the top four teams by point total get the majority
of the money at the end. But we still do head-to-head games. The
head-to-head record is used for seeding in a tournament Weeks
14-17, in which any team can win. We also charge $5 for a head-to-head
loss, giving everybody a reason to field a team to the end.
Of course, there is more than one way to avoid having the Super
Bowl in Week 17. Michael's league has implemented a playoff scenario
that manages to correspond with the NFL postseason (though the winning
team might feature a single running back, a No. 2 wide-out, a kicker,
and no QB):
My league (which began in 1991) appears to use an entirely
different approach than most other leagues. We play all 17 weeks
of the season [to determine which owners will advance to the playoffs].
The four division winners and two wildcard teams move onto the
playoffs [after Week 17]. We redraft from the playoff teams the
Wednesday before the first wildcard games. The playoffs are basically
a "Last Player Standing" affair; your players drop out
as the teams they belong to are eliminated. Picking players that
are Super Bowl-bound is crucial to winning.
Like Dave, Walter's league is content to have a championship
game in Week 17, as it enables a playoff scenario similar to what
we saw in the AFC and NFC prior to the most recent divisional
realignment:
I'm in a twelve-team league with three divisions of four teams
each. Each team plays each team in their division twice and all
other teams once, requiring fourteen weeks. Playoff qualifiers
are the three division champs, and from the remaining teams, the
three teams with the best records regardless of division. In the
first round, the two best division champs get byes with the third
champ playing the sixth seed and four and five playing each other.
The lowest seed to advance plays the first seed in the second
round. Though this requires that our Super Bowl is played in week
seventeen, we think that being able to set up the regular season
schedule so that we play every team in the league makes it worth
it.
This Week's Question
Unlike Dave, Brad's league does not schedule a championship game
for Week 17. But like Dave, he does hate the idea of allowing
that week to go to waste. After all, the NFL season is so short
that it seems a shame to cheat oneself out of a week of competition.
Accordingly, Brad wanted me to ask readers to "brainstorm"
about ways to put Week 17 to use in leagues that have already
wrapped up their championship games.
I'll respond by pointing out that even though no one wrote in
to support the idea of a two-week championship game (spanning
weeks 16 and 17), that option is definitely worth considering.
I'll also say that it might be worthwhile to let all members of
the league submit their own "fantasy-fantasy rosters,"
by which I mean that all owners would have access to all players
in the NFL. You might end up with 11 different owners using Michael
Vick as their quarterback or Marvin Harrison as a receiver, but
the charm of such a system is that it would not require a redrafting
party. What would the owners be competing for? I don't know. Draft
order perhaps. Or maybe a 50% reduction in the next season's entry
fee. You tell me. I'm just a writer. You folks have the ideas.
I'll collect the responses to this question during the offseason
and get back to you in my June column of 2004. That wraps it up
for me this year. Happy holidays everyone. And good luck to those
of you playing championships in Week 17.
Reader's Picks (Matthew)
Trap Game:
Last week I predicted that Miami would have a problem with Buffalo.
Well, I was wrong. Why? Because it was sunny in Buffalo in December.
While most teams will be looking to clean out their lockers this
week, it is the teams that have the chance to knock a team out of
the playoffs that I think you should watch out for. In fact, this
week there are many to choose from. Take Buffalo at New England,
for example.
In Week 1, everyone expected New England to crush the Bills and
the Patriots came home with their tails between their legs trying
to figure out what happened. Since then, the Patriots have lost
1 game. In fact, the two teams that they lost to this season are
a combined 11-19. So why is this a trap game? Because the Bills
were built to beat New England and Travis Henry is making sure that
the Bills don't forget that he played with a broken leg the last
month of the season even though they were out of the playoffs. Also,
New England already has the bye wrapped up and may ease up a little.
#3: Philadelphia over Washington (15-1):
If ever there was a time that a team needed a win, it is this week.
The Eagles laid a big one against the 49ers and will need a win
against the Redskins to clinch the division. The Redskins don't
match up very well against them and this game should be over early.
#2: Cincinnati over Cleveland (12-4):
The Bengals will need to win to have any chance at making the playoffs,
and the Browns will be easy to pick off. Unfortunately, this win
will most likely not be enough. Oh well, the playoffs will have
to wait until next year, but no one can deny that Marvin Lewis did
a heck of a job in Cincinnati. Now, if only they can figure out
that they won more games without Corey Dillon than with him.
#1: Baltimore over Pittsburgh (14-2):
After looking at all my picks this season, I found that I still
have not picked the Ravens as the best choice for the Last Man Standing
Pool. And so, this week with great pride I choose the Ravens over
the Steelers. Pittsburgh has only won 2 games against teams with
winning records this season, ironically Cincinnati and Baltimore.
However, both of those games were played in the first 3 weeks of
the season and have long been forgotten by the men in black. The
Ravens will be playing in Prime Time with the playoffs on the line
and are focused on getting Jamal Lewis the single season rushing
record. While Tommy Maddox may have torched the vaunted Ravens defense
in week 1, the Steelers are not the team they were in the early
part of the season; nor are the Ravens relying on a rookie quarterback.
What more could the NFL want than a Prime Time game that determines
the winner of the AFC North? Isn't that how they scripted it when
the schedule makers released the schedule earlier this year?
Mike's Picks:
The same rationale informs all my picks this week. If a team
has something at stake in terms of the playoffs and is playing
at home against a team with nothing at stake, I'll take the home
team. We'll see how it works out.
#3 Tennessee over Tampa Bay
(12-4 in 2003; 33-15 cumulative)
Tennessee can still claim the AFC South title with a win over
Tampa and a loss by Indy.
#2 Baltimore over Pittsburgh
(12-4 in 2003; 36-12 cumulative)
I understand why Matt has this as his top pick, but I just can't
pass up the opportunity to use the Bengals there.
#1 Cincinnati over Cleveland
(11-5 in 2003; 33-15 cumulative)
I have never used Cinci as my top pick of the week, but they have
to beat the Browns and hope for a Baltimore loss in order to taste
the postseason. How can you not pull for them?
:: comments to mike
davis
Readers who are relatively new to fantasy football or who need
to recruit FF rookies into their leagues may want to check out Mike's
instructional audio CD, Getting to Know Fantasy Football, available
at the following URL: https://www.drive2learn.com/store/
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