As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted
to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday’s “Fantasy
Despite a so-so week two in the FFTOC finals, I entered week
three 4th overall.
||Decent game, but I hoped for another
6-10 points. It was him or Garrard—wrong choice for
||Not bad for a guy having a disappointing
||I considered Stecker here, but figured
this might be the last week Addai gets significant time
in the regular season.
||For Mason and the slumping Ravens, I’m
happy with this effort.
||The touchdown at least made this a decent
performance for me.
||I was on the road when I learned about
the blizzard conditions. In other words, the dog ate
||For a while I didn’t think he was playing.
Another week I missed out on Donald Lee…
||This was a surprising disappointment.
||I will need a monster effort of historical
proportions next week to win it all.
Unless the rest of the top teams had similar weeks, which is possible
if my competition used Brady, Manning, Romo and their primary receivers,
I’m probably dropping out of the top 30 teams. I’ll
need to score 100 more points in the final week than what I did
in week three to have a shot at winning.
QB (Need 2): D. Garrard; J.
Kitna; M. Bulger; E. Manning; M. Schaub; T. Edwards
Garrard is playing well, but I might opt for Bulger or Manning
after I study the mach ups.
RBs (Need 4): Peterson (Chicago);
E. Graham; R. Droughns; F. Jackson; T. Henry/S. Young/A.Hall;
J. Fargas; D. Foster; L. Maroney; J. Chatman; K. Smith; M. Morris;
Fargas’ knee hurts more than him—I planned on starting
him. But Maroney showed signs of life and he could be valuable
versus the Dolphins. Selvin Young? Strong possibility.
WR (Need 6): J. Cotchery;
D. Bowe; J. Gage; M. Jenkins; I. Hilliard; S. Moss; J. Porter;
M. Muhammad; M. Furrey; S. McDonald; N. Burleson; A. Toomer; E.
Wilford; K. Robinson; J. Jurevicius; K. McCardell; J. Reed; D.J.
Hackett; D Henderson; A. Davis; B. Wade; S. Rice; D. Northcutt;
V. Jackson; M. Booker; T. Ginn; S. Morey;
This is going to be the real challenge—Santana Moss and
Jerricho Cotchery are my biggest name receivers but neither are
in great shape to produce huge efforts.
TE (Need 2): J. Shockey; D.
Lee; J. King; G. Olsen; B. Watson; T. Scheffler; L.J. Smith; Z.
With Shockey's injury, it looks like it will be Lee, or Scheffler.
Will I be a week too late starting Lee?
Let’s move on to the week fifteen files of 20/20 Hindsight.
After reading Kirk Hollis’ Monday
Morning Buzz, there’s little I can add to what he said
at this stage of the game. So in honor of the 2008
Rookie Scouting Portfolio now available for you to purchase
at a pre-publication discount
of $9.95, we’ll do an all-rookie edition of 20/20 Hindsight.
Matt Moore Would Beat One Of The Hottest
Teams In The NFC: A huge reason for Carolina’s success
was much better play at the line of scrimmage on either side of
the football. The Panthers offensive line gave their rookie QB
a lot of time to throw the football and opened lanes for Foster
and Williams when it counted. The Carolina defensive line played
a more disruptive brand of football than recent weeks and the
second and third level improved its tackling. But with that said,
Matt Moore, the un-drafted rookie out of Oregon State did a fine
job managing the football game. Here’s my take on Moore
last spring and a link
to his 2007 RSP Profile:
Moore, Dallas—Mel Kiper was all over Matt Moore as an underrated
prospect, but the QB did not get drafted as the ESPN analyst expected.
But Kiper is right about Moore. The free agent was signed by the
Cowboys and don’t be surprised if this former pro baseball
prospect develops into a starter. His athleticism, accuracy, and
ability to see the field are similar to that of a young Matt Hasselbeck.
Lesson Learned: Just because a
team cuts a player doesn’t mean the player lacks a future
in the league. Football is a team sport.
The undrafted free agent simply lacks experience. This manifests
in various ways such as tipping off the direction he’s throwing
the football and making the correct adjustment at the line of
scrimmage. But I like Moore’s chances in Dallas. Tony Romo
is still unproven, Brad Johnson is strictly playing out the last
days of career, and Isaiah Stanback has been moved to receiver.
Rookie Impact: Matt Moore has a good chance to not only
make this team, but also be the #3 QB with a shot at developing
into the backup in short order.
Three to Five-Year Outlook: Potential starter for someone.
Selvin Young Would Be The Broncos Gravy
Train In The Backfield: While I didn’t evaluate Ryan
Grant or James Jones for the 2007 RSP, I did have plenty of opportunities
to watch Texas’
Selvin Young—a back that looked as good as any runner
I saw in the NCAA last year. Adrian Peterson may be averaging
close to 6 yards per carry after 200 attempts, but Young has a
healthy 5+ ypc average with 108 carries.
Young was one of my candidates for my annual long shot article
in the spring, but I thought that Travis Henry had a better hold
on the job than Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns—two backs
who lack the quickness and vision that my long shot candidate
Ahmad Bradshaw possesses.
Lesson Learned: Young was a
player I had a higher grade than runners many analysts hyped without
any regard to the Texas back: Antonio Pittman, Tony Hunt, and
Brandon Jackson. In fact, here are my preseason thoughts on Jackson.
Jackson, Packers: There was a time where it was out of the
question to second-guess Green Bays draft day selections. Even
prior to Aaron Rodgers that day has passed. It sure sounds like
I am down on Brandon Jackson. I’d rather say I’m just
not as high on him as others. Is there a difference? Allow me
Although Brian Leonard wasn’t the big-time sleeper I imagined,
he was still a better option than Jackson, and the rest of the “big-school”
options this year who were over valued.
Jackson catches the ball well and has tree trunks for thighs.
He looks like a powerful back with good quickness. I just don’t
believe he’s as good as Vernand Morency, which for the price
of a 2nd round pick, I’m second-guessing the Packers. Morency
has speed to burn and I think he has more potential than Tatum
Bell, but toiled on a slower learning curve due to the fact he
started with the Texans. Jackson is not a speedster, and I believe
the Nebraska alum and Morency will split time, at best.
The reason is Jackson looks the part more than he plays the part.
What I saw on film was a back who went down easily in comparison
to other backs in similar situations. Jackson is like a few backs
from big-time programs where the offensive linemen are massive
(hint: Ohio State and Penn State) and many of their “impressive”
runs are products of huge gashes in the defensive line. I think
he’s actually the best of the big-time university backs
that I’ll profile later, but it doesn’t mean he’s
the automatic starter for the Packers. He’s worth selecting
late in a re-draft, but I wouldn’t overspend. In fact, I’d
rather avoid what I see as imminent frustration with the Green
Bay backfield and pick a player like Brian Leonard as a quality
handcuff at a cheaper price.
Taken Dwayne Bowe Over Robert Meachem,
Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett, And Craig Davis: I know I
have Steve Smith and Jason Hill as my top receivers after Calvin
Johnson—and I stand by my long-term grades—but these
guys were both workout warriors and productive players on film.
This wasn’t the case with the four guys (Rice a lesser exception)
often drafted ahead of Dwayne Bowe. Meachem, Rice, and Davis were
more heralded due to their speed, but ask Bill Belicheck and Scott
Pioli about Bethel Johnson and his football skills. As for Jarrett
vs. Bowe, the winning factor for scouts who liked Jarrett was
his proven hands. But if you watched Bowe
on tape as a senior, there was marked improvement with Bowe’s
hands and his athleticism makes him a much better prospect than
the USC star.
Lesson Learned: Pick receivers
who aren’t afraid of contact when the ball is in the air
and have the work ethic to improve season to season. Bowe and
Rice are the only two receivers on this list who demonstrated
these two qualities.
Nagging Feelings—Week 16
Don’t you love reactionary analysis? Before the Monday Night
game, I listened to analysts praising Tarvaris
Jackson for his completion percentage and his progress towards
becoming the next Donovan McNabb. After the game these same analysts
are saying Jackson was immature, a liability, and was one of the
reasons why the game looked like it was a performance of high
school proportions. The guy couldn’t even beat coverage with a
single safety in the defensive backfield while the other was in
the box. I know Bryant McKinnie was being funny, but when he jokes
on national TV that the entire huddle can’t understand a word
Jackson is saying and then see his performance, it leaves one
I can’t believe I’m agreeing with Merrill Hoge, but
I can see the Jacksonville Jaguars as a potential playoff spoiler
if they have to face New England in a bad weather playoff game.
They have the ground game, efficient QB play, and physical secondary
to make things difficult for the Pats in rough conditions.
Unless Jessica Simpson paid a conjugal visit to Romo before the
game and at halftime I don’t really want to hear about her
or any other girlfriend being the cause for the Dallas QBs woes
Brian Westbrook’s slide at the one-yard line cost me points
in two pivotal games. Although it didn’t make a difference
in either outcome, it got me to thinking that I wish there were
a way to reward owners for smart plays made by players that don’t
show up in the stat column. If so, Westbrook’s non-touchdown
should have been worth two scores considering it put the game
out of reach.
Is it just me who notices, or does Trent
Edwards make a great throw in every week? He may not have
a lot of yardage, but he’s keeping the Bills in every game. I
still believe he’s going to be the best QB to come out of this
2007 draft class. The fact that Bill Walsh made a lengthy recommendation
on Edwards’ behalf validates all I saw from him on film. Give
me Edwards, Beck, and Moore over Russell and Quinn any time. I
know Beck has been horrible, but he got thrown to the wolves.
He’ll get better.