2/3/00
Within the microcosm of fantasy football there is a swirl of myth,
legend and conjecture. Participants argue about draft strategies
and choices. They believe in miracle years and dynamic trends, which
appear to take shape over the course of a season. They also think
the numbers of years a player has in the league has something to
do with their performance in any given season. It is this last belief
that some of the people in my league swear by and the most prevalent
fallacy is that of the, "Three Year Break Out Receiver."
To investigate, research and prove, or disprove, this myth empirically
was going to require a great deal of statistical information. Patience,
to grind the raw data to some useable form and an unbiased examination
of the facts to be fair in the analysis of the information. Though
the emphasis of this research is on fact, it may be good to look
at the fantasy of Hollywood to gain some perspective.
In the 1947 movie, "Magic Town", Jimmy Stewart is in search of the
perfect small community in America. His search for this town begins
because he is an ace independent pollster without the resources to
compete with the giant Gallup Poll Company. After digging through
national demographics like a mole he discovers the town of Grandview.
Grandview is located in Middle America USA and he moves there to seek
fame and fortune. The catch is that he must keep his mission and identity
secret to insure accurate results. A short time after his arrival
he finds success and sees a future with endless potential. More of
this story later, but the source of the resource pool is always a
question when trying to understand even elementary statistics. There
must be some form of randomness. It must be large enough to insure
accurate results and it must be pure enough to dilute any pollution
in the source pool. In short, the data must be gathered fairly and
without prejudice.
To meet all of the requirements of a computer generated version of
"Grandview" a pool of 109 quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends
were garnered from the files of the NFL. The pool was separated into
smaller ponds labeled, "Elite" and, "Random." The elite players were
selected from the list of top ten receivers and quarterbacks drafted
from two performance based leagues over the last five years, while
the random group was selected from a list of all active players in
the NFL. The elite lists of QB's and wide outs were 12 and 21 respectively
the random groups had 51 receivers and 25 gunslingers. The names of
the elite included Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, Steve Young, Brett Favre
and Herman Moore. The names of the random selections included some
big names like Randy Moss and Jeff George, but most of the players
had names like Billy Joe Holbert, Mat Reem, and Pete Gonzalez. Most
of the random selects had NFL experience, but were hardly players
that end up on any reasonable draft list. Still, all of the ponds
were large enough to assure fairly accurate results and diversity
in attaining the results. The first group to be examined was the plethora
of receivers in the NFL.
There appeared to be a fairly wide gap between the performance of
the elite crew and their counter parts during the early years of their
development. During their first year in the league the elite group
had a respectable 562 yards while the other guys had only 155. Even
if the bench sitters were removed from the sample, the elite crew
was still out gaining the others by more then 160 yards. The gap stayed
about the same in total yards during the second year as both groups
increased in the low 20th percentile. The critical third year appeared
to be the great earthquake to widen the spread between the two groups.
During their third year the elite group gained a total of 893 yards
receiving while the random group only had 448 yards. On the surface
it would appear the three-year theory is not myth, but fact. Only
by looking deeper can this be confirmed or denied.
Take into account that few of these receivers had a 1,000-yard season
during their first three years. If this variable is considered, the
number of years it takes for one of the elite receivers to have a
true break out year is 4.066 while the average wide out in the
NFL breaks out in 3.923 years. Although three years appears to
be an indicator for great expectations, four years is when a receiver
goes from potentially good to consistently great during the peak of
their career. This conclusion seems to become more concrete when the
total TD's per season of each of the groups is added to the mix. In
their third year of action the elite group had a very respectable
9 TD's while the random pool had only 3 TD's for an entire season.
Receivers seem to get better with age, but is this because of their
growing individual talent, or is it the combination of the receiver
and the quarterback?
This became a nagging question and had top be explored. Using the
same categories as the receivers QB stats for the first season appeared
to be very close. The anointed ones had 806 yards, 7 TD's to 791 yards
and 5 TD's for the random sample. It was in their second year that
the distance between the two groups grew significantly as the elite
signal callers threw for twice the yardage at 2,323 yards and almost
twice the number of TD's. What was interesting was that during their
third year the gap, once again, shrank. The separation in yards computed
out to 2,490 for the elite group and 2,355 for the random bunch of
slingers. The separation in TD's still favored the elite as they threw
for more then a third more TD's at 15 total for the season. This merging
of the figures may be due to the shrinking pool of random quarterbacks,
as the group shrank by almost half over a three year period, but the
years it takes for a top rookie QB to emerge would indicate that this
three year development for any quarterback is normal. The break out
year for the best in the NFL is 3.5, while their colleges develop
in 3.1 years. It seems that either a top quarterback will begin starting
by their third year, or they may never break out. (Ten of the players
in the random pool will probably never have a break out year.) Still,
these are numbers being used to describe the success, or failure,
of a human being and they fail to ignore variables, existing in the
real world.
In the world of, "Magic Town", the perfect town develops into a not
so perfect town. Stewart's character forgets to include the variables
of falling in love, having people discover his true purpose and identity
and the reactions of his test subjects in the real world. All of these
factors began to skew his results and ruin his neat statistical pictures.
Such is the world of the National Football League.
Four months of physical abuse, constant pressure and mental adjustments
during every year takes its toll on both the mind and body and none
of it is predictable. The number of questions to be answered is endless.
Is there truly a quantifiable "special" relationship between some
receivers and quarterbacks? If there is, how come some of these relationships
of productivity ebb while some individuals grow regardless of the
person tossing or catching? Could Jerry Rice have reached the pinnacles
of success if he had had Billy Joe Toliver as his main howitzer, or
could the presence of Rice made Billy Joe something beyond the below
average signal caller he is today? Is it a lock that Kevin Johnson
and Tim Couch will grow at a rate similar to that of Peyton Manning
and Marvin Harrison? Of course not! There is no such thing as "guaranteed"
in the world of football and statistics. Jimmy Stewart discovered
this fact and it was not until he accepted life exactly as it was
offered that he began to truly find success and the girl of his dreams.
In the real world of fantasy football there is no Magic Town as the
town is always under construction, modification and the forces of
nature. An old college friend used to tell me, when observing my struggles
with statistics class... "There is no such thing as probability. The
world is a 50/50 proposition. Either an event is going to happen,
or it is not going to happen." As angry as I used to get trying to
explain the concept of reliability intervals, I always saw the truth
in his logic. No matter how good a player has been they are one tackle,
one drink, one drive, one heart beat away from losing their careers
and creating a vast hole in any fantasy team. Though Grandview USA
may not exist, it can always be attempted in the world of the fantasy
league. After all, either Randy Moss will have a great year, or he
won't. In life, like statistics, reality can be stranger then the
truth.
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