A No.25 overall pick draft pick (and first wideout off the board)
out of Oklahoma, Marquise
“Hollywood” Brown has always seemed to have more talent than
actual production. But part of that was his starting quarterbacks,
who liked to run the ball more than they liked to throw it.
Brown with Baltimore and Arizona
Brown and Lamar Jackson were improving over his first three years
when he was unexpectedly traded to Arizona to play with his old
college quarterback Kyler Murray… which hasn’t been
a successful move for the wideout. It must be noted that the pair
only played four games together in 2023.
Marquise Brown
Year
Tm
Rec
Yds
TDs
FPts/G
Rank
2019
BAL
46
584
7
10.5
46
2020
BAL
58
769
8
11.4
35
2021
BAL
91
1008
6
14.3
21
2022
ARI
67
709
3
13.0
44
2023
ARI
51
574
4
9.6
53
Brown with Kansas City
Brown signing a one-year “prove it” deal with the
Kansas City Chiefs might be the perfect spot for him to get a
healthy contract next season. Certainly, he’ll be with the
most talented quarterback of his career. Patrick Mahomes has never
thrown for less than 4,000 yards in any season since he became
a starter while Jackson and Murray have never thrown for 4,000
yards. Mahomes has also averaged 593 passing attempts per season
since 2018, far above anything Brown’s previous quarterbacks
have produced.
Opportunity for targets will be there.
If we assume Mahomes will throw the ball 593 times in 2024 and
All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce will see 137 of them (his average
over the past five seasons), that still leaves 456 targets to
be divided between the running backs, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore,
Brown, Justin Watson and a half-dozen possible depth pieces who
can’t catch. Assuming 150 targets for running backs and
backup tight ends (they totaled 149 last season), that leaves
306 targets for Rice, Moore, Watson and Brown.
Rice clearly became Mahomes’ favorite wide receiver target
down the stretch and should see 125 targets. Moore and Watson
have limited upside, so give them 75 targets between them. That
leaves 106 targets for Brown.
Bottom Line
What can Brown do with 106 targets from the best quarterback
in the league while opposing defenses will be focusing their attention
on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice? Think of this as Brown’s
floor. I’m going to give Brown a career-high catch-percentage,
because of his new quarterback’s prowess meaning he’ll
catch 70 balls for 918 yards and seven touchdowns worth 204 full
PPR fantasy points.
“Hollywood’s” floor is a WR3 and if he and
Mahomes quickly get on the same page or an injury to Mahomes’
top-two favorite targets, it could be significantly higher.
