As in every season, Week 1 was full of surprises with some crazy
highs and many frustrating lows. As a fantasy owner you should show
patience. However, as a fantasy owners you should also note how
coaches used players and adjust your projections accordingly.
Truths
“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but
most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever
happened.” – Sir Winston Churchill
1) “If I stay healthy, keep attention to detail, I’ll
get 2,000 yards,” said Tyreek Hill in July.
True. His 215 yards and two touchdowns on Opening Day set notice
to opposing defensive coordinators that his goal is reachable.
He was also not dependent on the health of Tua Tagovailoa last
season. He averaged 103.8 ypg with Tua under center and still
a respectable 92.8 ypg with anyone else in 2022. Jaylen Waddle,
on the other hand, needs Tua to stay healthy. He averaged 89.7
ypg with Tua and just 56 yards per game without him.
2) To be a fantasy superstar you need two things- opportunities
and production.
Fact. Tee Higgins saw plenty of targets in Week 1, but didn’t
produce (zero receptions). CeeDee Lamb saw just four targets and
caught them all for a 19.3 ypc, but didn’t get enough work
because Dallas mercilessly blew out the New York Giants 40-0.
Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk led all receivers in fantasy points (44.5
and 32.9, respectively), because they saw high volume AND produced.
3) Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts will be better… much better.
True. Burrow didn’t get much work because of a preseason
leg injury and Hurts didn’t play a single down before Sunday
and it showed for both top-five quarterbacks. As Aaron Rodgers
once said, R-E-L-A-X.
4) Buy low quarterback candidates:
Besides the two mentioned above in No.3, Josh Allen (19.1), Lamar Jackson (12.3 fantasy points) and Dak Prescott (7.8). If any of
their team owners are panicking, by all means take advantage of
the situation.
5) Sell high candidates:
Tyler Allgeier, Roschon Johnson and
Kyren Williams. Like most rookies, Bijan Robinson is being eased
into the league and Allgeier just had the best day he’ll
ever have. Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert is still the No.1 back in
Chicago and while Williams did produce 17.4 fantasy points he
did it on just 15 touches while Cam Akers saw 22 touches.
Lies
“Any fool can tell the truth, but it requires a man of some
sense to know how to lie well.” – Samuel Butler
1) Tua Tagovailoa will throw for 7,922 yards and 51 touchdowns
and Tyreek Hill will not produce 3,655 yards this season.
Obviously not. This is my annual warning to not overvalue the
first week’s results. Don’t panic if you started Tee Higgins and don’t go crazy and turn down a trade of Tony Pollard for your Tyler Allgeier because Allgeier was better in
Week 1. Reality check 101.
2) The Dallas defense is THAT good.
OK, the Cowboys are a very good defense, but the Opening Sunday
night performance by the New York Giants was embarrassing. The
Cowboys defense won’t score 30 fantasy points again. (Or,
facing Zach Wilson instead of Aaron Rodgers and then Joshua Dobbs
and Arizona in Week 3 they might do it three times in a row to
start the season.) Just kidding. I still rank the 49ers defense
at the top ahead of Dallas and the Jets.
3) Justin Tucker is the best fantasy kicker in the NFL.
False. Tucker is the best kicker in the NFL and he’d be
the guy I’d want with a Super Bowl or my life on the line,
but he hasn’t led the league in fantasy. He’s close
every year and that’s why he gets picked first. It’s
about opportunities since most good kickers hit between 75-80%
of their attempts. Find a kicker on a team which moves the ball,
but doesn’t get into the end zone. It also will help if
he kicks indoors or in a warm weather site when the weather turns
ugly. I’m looking at you Cameron Dicker (62% rostered) and
you Blake Grupe (2%).
4) Aaron Rodgers will be back.
I don’t think so. He’s already 40 years old and a
complete tear of the Achilles (confirmed Tuesday morning) is hard
enough for a young man to recover from much less a 19-year veteran.
Also, I don’t think Wilson had enough time around him to
replace him, unlike Jordan Love who looked on Sunday like he was
paying attention for those two years he was behind Rodgers. If
you are searching for a Rodgers replacement, do what the Green
Bay Packers did… get you some Love. Love was efficient in
Week 1 producing 25.5 fantasy points on just 27 passes. He’ll
throw more when wideout Christian Watson (hamstring) returns to
the lineup to go with Romeo Doubs and tight end Luke Musgrave.
5) Mac Jones, who finished second in Week 1 fantasy points at
the position (29.3 points), is ready to carry a fantasy team.
No. This is one of those mirages which happens in Week 1. The
Eagles stopped the Patriots run game, they were down 16 points
early and Bill O’Brien called 54 pass plays. That isn’t
likely to happen again. In 2022, Jones never threw more than 40
times and over the last two seasons every time Jones has thrown
37 or more times, New England has lost the game. If I know the
numbers, you know Bill Belichick knows them too.
