No one was thinking of sitting Prescott, as hot as he is (a league-leading
31.8 FPts/G over the last four games), but this matchup is the
not-so-classic irresistible object versus the very movable force.
The Commanders rank next-to-last in quarterback fantasy points
allowed (25.3) and a league-worst 24 touchdown passes. Prescott
should be the No.1 overall fantasy quarterback and those who start
him should have a very Happy Thanksgiving.
Now back to more obscure fantasy plays. For the 2023 season the
Tampa Bay defense ranks No.4 against running backs and No. 30
against fantasy quarterbacks. Since Week 7 the Bucs rank 32nd
against opposing QBs (just to clarify… that’s dead
last). They are allowing two touchdown passes and 315.2 passing
yards over that span. So, while it might be a tough day for Jonathan
Taylor and the run game, Minshew and his receivers Michael Pittman
Jr. and Josh Downs (if healthy) should have a banner afternoon.
Lawrence had his best outing of the season last Sunday primarily
due to two rushing touchdowns. While you can’t consistently expect
that from your quarterback (unless he’s Jalen Hurts), the game
with Houston should be a shootout between two young, talented
quarterbacks (O/U 48.5). Calvin Ridley finally showed last week
to go along with steady Christian Kirk to give Lawrence two very
good targets.
The Baltimore Ravens have allowed just one quarterback to crack
the 20-point mark this season (Joshua Dobbs). They lead the league
with 44 sacks and “net yards per passing attempt” (4.2). They
are one of three teams with more INTs than TD passes allowed.
Meanwhile, Hebert’s pass-catching group looks like the walking
wounded. Keenan Allen has shoulder issues, rookie Quentin Johnston
has catching issues, Jaylen Guyton has a groin issue, Gerald Everett
has a chest injury and Josh Palmer is on the IR. The team had
to call up two practice players for Week 11. This is not a recipe
for success for Herbert despite his two great outings in a row.
He has trouble with very good defenses, producing less than 18
fantasy points against Kansas City and less than 10 against the
Jets defense. Beware.
I shouldn’t have to tell you to stay away from Myles Garrett
& Co., but I will. Stay away! They have yielded a league-low
nine passing touchdowns and a league-low 1,665 passing yards to
opposing quarterbacks. Sean Payton is keeping Wilson’s exposure
low by running more and throwing short passes which keeps his
production down. Also, he doesn’t target his best receiver,
Courtland Sutton, often enough. Sutton has been targeted more
than six times just once in the last seven games, despite great
hands and 50-50 ability (see his touchdown grabs the last two
games). Like most Browns games, this will be a low-scoring defensive
battle.
The excitement of his first start (238 yards and 4 TDs) has long
since passed and he hasn’t cracked 20 fantasy points in
any of his last three starts. They were all on the road, so going
home might help, but the Panthers are stingy against opposing
quarterbacks. They are No.3 against opposing fantasy QBs and No.31
against opposing fantasy running backs. Want to guess what the
Titans will be doing this Sunday? Answer: feeding Derrick Henry
and Tyjae Spears at the expense of Levis and the passing game.
