8/19/06
For the rookie fantasy owner, all of the numbers and lingo that
are associated with fantasy football can be as intimidating as strapping
on some pads and going head-up with Ray Lewis. Come draft day, the
list of available players that is several hundred strong can be
awfully formidable. Often a “newbie” fantasy owner will
make several mistakes that will make their season destined for the
toilet. If you are an experienced owner, here is a list to chuckle
about as you reminisce back to your very first league. If you are
a new owner that is smacking the panic button because of your rapidly
approaching draft day, fill yourself with knowledge on the top ten
biggest no-no’s.
10. Ignoring Draft Position
Let’s say you are playing fantasy football for the first
time in a simple 12-team league. Your league requires that you
start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers,
one tight end, one defense/special teams unit, and one kicker.
You have your laptop on the table and heaps of fantasy articles
and projections scattered around you. Your draft time is nearing
and you discover that you will have the #1 overall pick. “Great”
you say. “I’ll take Peyton Manning. He seems like
he would be the best fantasy player with all those touchdown passes
and passing yards.” While Manning is a solid pick, there
are several other positions you still must fill. By taking Manning
first overall, the quality depth of the positions where you must
start two players will take a serious hit. Since most leagues
reverse the draft order every other round, you will not have another
pick until 18 other players have been yanked off the board. To
get an idea of the dire situation you would be in, let’s
look at FFToday’s very own mock
draft with the only difference being Manning #1.
Pick 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
P. Manning |
L.
Johnson |
L.
Tomlinson |
S.
Alexander |
T.
Barber |
C.
Portis |
R.
Brown |
L.
Jordan |
S. Smith |
S.
Jackson |
C.
Williams |
B.
Westbrook |
Pick 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
R.
Johnson |
E.
James |
C. Johnson |
T.
Holt |
L. Fitzgerald |
T. Owens |
M. Harrison |
J.
Jones |
R. Moss |
D.
Davis |
W.
McGahee |
|
|
By the time you pick again at 24, all of the elite running backs
are gone and only the “middle-of-the-pack” running
backs are left. This will put you in a terrible bind because it
means you will most likely be starting two backs that are either
sub-par or not featured backs in real life. A more reasonable
place to pick Manning would be at the end of round one or in round
two.
An important thought to always keep in mind is “What players
will be available when I make my next pick?” Almost all
leagues require two starting running backs, but there are very
few elite ones in the NFL. A fantasy owner must always be wary
of who is available and of his/her draft position. The first overall
pick is only fine and dandy if you know how to use it.
9. Ignoring Draft Tendencies
Tunnel vision can make a fantasy owner’s team bound for
the scrap heap. You can have a list of players that you would
kill to have, but the fact is that you will not have the chance
to draft everyone you want. It is pertinent that a fantasy owner
pays attention to the way others are drafting so that the best
available player is selected. If there has been a long run on
running backs before you, the sensible thing to do is to consider
the best available player at all positions.
Since running back is such a crucial position in fantasy football,
some owners go into their draft with the strategy of selecting
a running back with their first two picks, regardless of what’s
occurring around them. While this will most likely get them the
strongest group of backs in the league, it will be very difficult
for this owner to win his/her league because of the resulting
lack of depth at other positions. Let’s look at the mock
draft again, this time with Manning in his actual spot and not
#1.
Pick 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
L. Johnson |
L. Tomlinson |
S. Alexander |
T.
Barber |
C. Portis |
R. Brown |
L. Jordan |
S. Smith |
S. Jackson |
C. Williams |
B. Westbrook |
R. Johnson |
Pick 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
E. James |
C. Johnson |
T.
Holt |
L. Fitzgerald |
T. Owens |
M. Harrison |
P. Manning |
J. Jones |
R.
Moss |
D. Davis |
W. McGahee |
A. Boldin |
|
The owner holding the number six pick in the first round paid attention
to a trend to benefit themselves in round two. First time fantasy
owners have a tendency to panic whenever there are a few consecutive
picks of the same position. There are several reasons for this.
First of all, they might be slightly intimidated by the other owners.
They might think, “This is my first time and all of the other,
more experienced owners are picking wide receivers. Maybe I should
too since I don’t really know what I’m doing.”
Another reason a beginner might feel the urge to follow suit is
because they are afraid that all of the standout players at that
particular position will be gone if they don’t pick them ASAP.
In reality, recognizing a trend (such as the run on wide receivers
in picks 14-18) can be used as a tremendous advantage. For example,
take a look at the owner with the seventh overall pick (who also
had pick number nineteen overall). This owner made their first choice
a running back, an intelligent pick that gave them several options
in round two. For five straight picks ahead of them in the second
round, wide receivers were snatched off the board. So, instead of
following suit and taking the seventh or eighth best receiver, they
stole arguably the best quarterback. In doing so, the owner took
the best possible player in each of their first two picks, knowing
that there would still be several quality receivers to choose from
in round three.
8. Ignoring Off-Season Player Movement
In 2004, Daunte
Culpepper dropped a bombshell on the NFL as he exploded for
4717 yards and 39 td passes. Then a trade was made last off-season
in which some guy named Randy Moss was shipped to Oakland. Culpepper
then proceeded to have the worst start to a season in his career,
tossing up twelve picks and only six tds in just seven games.
If you want to be a consistent, dominating fantasy owner, you
simply cannot be a casual fan. Even the most miniscule changes
to a team can have a domino effect on fantasy football, and you
have to be right on top of things. Here’s a look at some
notable transactions during the 2004 off-season and their effects
(positive and negative) on surrounding players or units in the
2005 season:
The Effect Off-Season Player
Movement |
Player(s) |
Teammate Added Or Lost
|
Effect On Player Stats
|
QB Brett Favre |
Lost G Marco Rivera; Lost G Mike Wahle |
-207 pass yds, -10 tds, +12 ints |
QB Daunte Culpepper |
Lost WR Randy Moss |
Was on pace for: -1142 pass yds, -25
tds, +16 ints |
QB Kurt Warner and QB Eli Manning |
Added WR Plaxico Burress |
+760 pass yds, +12 tds |
QB Patrick Ramsey and QB Mark Brunell |
Trade WR Laveranues Coles for WR Santana
Moss |
+474 pass yds, +7 tds, -6 ints |
All CHI QB’s |
Added WR Muhsin Muhammad |
+2 pass tds, -1 int |
QB Jake Delhomme |
Lost WR Muhsin Muhammad |
-465 pass yds, -5 tds, +1 int |
All TB QB’s |
Lost WR Joe Jurevicious; Lost G Cosey
Coleman; Lost WR Tim Brown |
-584 pass yds, -7 pass tds |
WR Lee Evans |
Lost QB Drew Bledsoe |
-100 rec yds, -2 tds |
WR Eric Moulds |
Lost QB Drew Bledsoe |
-227 rec yds, -1 td |
All TEN QB’s |
Lost WR Derrick Mason |
-7 pass tds |
CLE Offense |
Added RB Reuben Droughns |
+2 spots in total offense rank |
QB Trent Green |
Lost WR Johnnie Morton; Lost RB Derrick
Blaylock |
-577 pass yds, -10 tds |
WR Jerry Porter |
Added WR Randy Moss |
-56 yds, -4 tds |
|
Countless beginners get too wrapped up in the success of a player
in the previous year and don’t consider vital players that
have been added or released during the off-season. Success breeds
success in the NFL, and that is why it is rare to see a Probowler
from a bad team. To be a distinguished fantasy owner, you must
analyze tiny details about a player when considering him for a
high draft pick. You can’t afford to waste any picks, so
make sure you don’t make a classic rookie mistake and ignore
the offseason.
7. Forgetting or Choosing Not to Pre-Rank
Players
I have yet to come across a fantasy website that does not allow
owners to pre-rank all NFL players before their draft. However,
it is easy for a new owner to underestimate the importance and
value of this tool. The “experts” that create the
projections for every player are not psychics, nor is it fair
that we expect them to be. The fact is that every owner in a fantasy
league is in for one reason: they want to be in control. Pre-rankings
are the most important thing to use to get your fantasy career
off the ground. They give you full control over who you want to
draft and when you want to draft them. The pre-rank option is
critical to fantasy for two reasons. Number one, it aids a fantasy
owner in remaining organized. Secondly, it is absolutely necessary
if a fantasy owner believes that he/she will not be able to show
up for the live draft.
Since all fantasy drafts allot a certain amount of time to each
owner to make their pick, organization is key. Once the draft
starts, there is no pause button. Owners do not have all day,
and that can be a frightening concept for beginners. If you have
already ranked your players, it will be a fairly simple process.
The players you held in high regard will be at the top of the
list. Unlike the lazy owner that chose not to pre-rank players,
you will not have to wipe away nervous beads of sweat while frantically
scrolling through the endless list of NFL players. Having a previously
thought out plan can be the difference between the basement of
your league and hoisting the crown.
The other important reason to pre-rank players is in case you
have any doubts about making your league’s draft. I’ve
seen it numerous times. A rookie fantasy owner excitedly signs
up for a league as soon as possible, and then simply tosses it
from his/her mind. These people are easily recognizable by the
draft timer ticking down to zero with every pick. No, they are
not analyzing and comparing several players or consulting their
fantasy magazine before making a well-thought out choice just
as the timer runs out. They are simply not there. Then, of course,
the computer picks their team for them and thus dooms them to
the league basement. Projections are all fine and dandy, but seldom
are they even 50% correct and they are never totally foolproof.
The best way to form a team that is competitive every week is
to trust your own gut and draft your own players. The depressing
results from a computer-picked fantasy team can be avoided with
a list of pre-ranked players.
6. Ignoring Player Bye Weeks
Here is a look at a team assembled in FFToday’s mock draft:
vipers - 1st Pick |
Round |
Player |
Bye
|
1 |
Larry Johnson (RB) |
3 |
2 |
Anquan Boldin (WR) |
9 |
3 |
Chris Chambers (WR) |
8 |
4 |
Andre Johnson (WR) |
5 |
5 |
Fred Taylor (RB) |
6 |
6 |
DeAngelo Williams (RB) |
9 |
7 |
Marc Bulger (QB) |
7 |
8 |
Heath Miller (TE) |
4 |
9 |
Braylon Edwards (WR) |
6 |
10 |
Bucs D/ST |
4 |
11 |
Laurence Maroney (RB) |
6 |
12 |
Greg Jones (RB) |
6 |
|
The owner drafted five running backs altogether. This would seem
like a wise draft strategy that would give the owner considerable
depth, but notice how three of those backs have the same bye weeks
(week six). As a result, the owner would be forced to start Larry
Johnson and DeAngelo Williams that week, even if they were hurt
or having a disappointing season. It is important to draft the
best available players, but keeping the bye weeks in mind is highly
recommended. This owner had enough running backs that they could
start two, but here is another team that was put in a tough position
due to the bye weeks:
U Dub - 3rd Pick |
Round |
Player |
Bye |
1 |
Shaun Alexander (RB) |
5 |
2 |
Domanick Davis (RB) |
5 |
3 |
Reggie Wayne (WR) |
6 |
4 |
Santana Moss (WR) |
8 |
5 |
Cedric Benson (RB) |
7 |
6 |
Eli Manning (QB) |
4 |
7 |
Curtis Martin (RB) |
9 |
8 |
Chris Cooley (TE) |
8 |
9 |
Nate Burleson (WR) |
5 |
10 |
Isaac Bruce (WR) |
7 |
11 |
Jacksonville D/ST |
6 |
12 |
Chris Simms (QB) |
4 |
|
When week four rolls around, this owner will have no QB to start
because Chris Simms and Eli Manning both have the day off. Yet
another thing to avoid when drafting a team is picking several
players with the same bye week, even if they don’t have
the same position. That way, you won’t have an army of backups
playing on a particular week and guaranteeing you a loss.
5. Drafting Favorite Players, Not Best
Players
So what if he is one of the most electrifying players and big-play
threats ever to be drafted? Reggie Bush is not worth a top 3 pick
just because you are a Saints or Trojans fan and loves how he
plays. Drafting favorite players over the best players is one
of the most common and worst mistakes that rookie fantasy owners
make. “But I’m a diehard Chicago Bears fan”
you might say. That’s fine. Select their raging, formidable
defense. But the game is called fantasy football for a reason.
I don’t know too many people that fantasize about having
Rex Grossman run their team.
It is vital for an owner to do their homework before heading
into a draft. Having a gameplan is commendable. Make sure you
are aware of which players are elite or expected to be elite in
the upcoming season. Familiarize yourself with the sleepers and
the young guys. Figure out which players have more potential and
better odds for success. Some of your favorite players might be
the best, but it is important to not let that cloud your vision.
New fantasy owners often fail to gather all the information they
can about NFL players. They sometimes feel more comfortable selecting
a player they know more about. All options must be weighed during
a draft and the best player must be selected.
4. Ignoring Players’ Ages
Every once in a while a longtime veteran has a breakout year.
And of course there are many vets that have been consistent contributors
throughout their careers. These players often lead to tussles
among rookie fantasy owners over the old guy while experienced
owners are snickering behind their backs. Don’t be the owner
getting laughed at. Always take into account a player’s
age before drafting him early. Here are some recent examples of
creaky-jointed vets that left fantasy owners sobbing in a corner:
Age Is A Factor |
Player |
Season Stats |
Age That Season |
Stats Next Season |
Curtis Martin (RB) |
2004: 1697 rush yds, 12 tds |
31 |
735 rush yds, 5 tds* |
Corey Dillon (RB) |
2004: 1635 rush yds, 12 tds |
Turned 30 during season |
733 rush yds, 12 tds* |
Fred Taylor (RB) |
2004: 1224 rush yds, 2 tds |
28 |
787 rush yds, 3 tds* |
Priest Holmes (RB) |
2003: 1420 rush yds, 27 tds |
Turned 30 during season |
892 rush yds, 14 tds* |
Marshall Faulk (RB) |
2001: 2147 total yds, 21 total tds* |
28 |
1480 total yds, 10 total tds* |
Rich Gannon (QB) |
2002: 4689 pass yds, 26 tds |
36 |
1274 pass yds, 6 tds* |
Tommy Maddox (QB) |
2003: 3414 pass yds, 18 tds |
32 |
329 pass yds, 1 td* |
Drew Bledsoe (QB) |
2002: 4359 pass yds, 24 tds |
30 |
2860 pass yds, 11 tds |
Steve McNair (QB) |
2003: 3215 pass yds, 24 tds |
30 |
1343 pass yds, 8 tds* |
Brad Johnson (QB) |
2003: 3811 pass yds, 26 tds |
Turned 35 during season |
674 pass yds, 3 tds* |
Tim Brown (WR) |
2001: 1165 rec yds, 9 tds |
36 |
930 rec yds, 2 tds |
|
*Player became injured and did not play
in all 16 games
Just because an older player has been terrific his entire career
doesn’t mean he will maintain the same pace. Everyone has
to slow down at some point, and the above chart proves it. Most
of these players were hot commodities in their fantasy drafts, but
disappointed the next season. Beginning fantasy owners and experts
alike must always be wary of the ages of the players they are selecting.
3. Selecting Injury-Prone Players
Any player (no matter how talented he may be) is worth zilch if
he is not on the field. Beginners are often blinded by the star
power of these players, arguing that they are the best at their
positions. What these owners don’t realize, however, is
that these players will only put up gargantuan numbers for a few
weeks. Then they pull a hammy or break a bone and are worthless
to fantasy owners. In most cases, the player is designated as
an “un-droppable.” This, of course, forces the owner
to keep him and drop another player from the team so that a replacement
can be made. It’s a horrifying chain reaction that doesn’t
stop until the season is over.
Most injuries do not just keep players off the field a certain
amount of weeks and then go away. Some, such as pulled hamstrings,
tend to hang over a player like a dark cloud for the entire season.
This can be doubly dangerous to owners because it becomes an extremely
difficult decision on who to start. You might take out the backup
and plug your “star” back in, but you also take the
risk of him not playing well. What’s worse, the backup that
you threw on the bench might have a great game. It’s all
guesswork when you are dealing with injuries, and that’s
why it’s smart to avoid injury-prone players. If you absolutely
feel you must draft these players for their talent and potential,
however, hold out as long as possible in the draft room and be
sure you are getting them for a bargain. Here are some of the
most injury-prone players during the last three seasons:
Injury-Prone The Last 3
Seasons |
Player |
Games Missed
(Out of 48) |
Chris Brown RB |
11 |
Correll Buckhalter RB |
33 |
Najeh Davenport RB |
17 |
Ahman Green RB |
12 |
Priest Holmes RB |
17 |
Julius Jones RB |
11 (out of 32) |
Deuce McAllister RB |
13 |
Duce Staley RB |
17 |
Kyle Boller QB |
12 |
Marc Bulger QB |
11 |
Mark Brunell QB |
20 |
Steve McNair QB |
12 |
Chad Pennington QB |
22 |
Michael Vick QB |
13 |
Reche Caldwell WR |
16 |
Tyrone Calico WR |
21 |
Joe Jurevicious WR |
17 |
David Patten WR |
17 |
Peter Warrick WR |
16 |
Rashaun Woods WR |
18 (out of 32) |
|
2. Not Making Transactions Throughout the
Season
Despite what you might tell your friends, family, or co-workers,
you will never draft the perfect fantasy team. I have never seen
an owner win a league without making any changes to the team he
drafted, and I never will. The hard truth is that some of your picks
will be busts. That’s what the free agent wire and trade option
is for.
Beginning fantasy owners, for some strange reason, seem reluctant
to tinker with their team. Perhaps they don’t know exactly
how to propose a trade or add/drop a player. Many times they will
let their team sit and rot until it is a pathetic collection of
players on the IR. Then they simply give up and present the rest
of their opponents with an easy win. This can aggravate other
owners that have been doing everything possible to strengthen
their team.
Making trades is a valuable way to gaining an edge over your
opponents. It can either give you better depth at a weak position
or snatch a quality player away from your enemies. Everyone gauges
value differently, and that’s why it is possible to get
a player that you really want. You may select Chad Johnson in
your draft and then get a hunch later that Randy Moss will have
a better season. If another owner has the exact opposite feeling
than you, then the trade will work. Also, you may run into an
owner that doesn’t evaluate trade proposals very well, allowing
you to receive a player like Tiki Barber for Kevan Barlow. It
can happen, so always try a trade or two.
Adding or dropping players is an equally effective way of strengthening
your team, and is fairly easier than trading. Every year, there
are huge surprises and sleepers that explode out of nowhere. These
players are the ones that go un-drafted and are available to snatch
up off of the proverbial “scrap heap” at any time.
I, for one, was able to grab two stars that were instrumental
in my championship run. Their names? Larry Johnson and Mike Anderson.
If you are right on top of things, great additions can be made
to your team without the pain of losing a star player (as in trades).
So if you are a beginner, remember to keep your eye on the free
agents throughout the season.
1. Not Showing for Draft at All
It’s hard to have fun and be competitive if you don’t
even draft your own team. That’s what will happen if you
forget your draft date: the computer picks it for you. Not only
is it a bad way to assemble a team, but it also aggravates the
other owners that have to wait for your timer to run out for every
one of your picks. Fantasy football is meant to give regular Joes
control over a team of their own with real NFL players. You can’t
win the league if you don’t have a team, so write down the
date and get your draft aids out!
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