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Top Ten Mistakes By The Fantasy Beginner
8/19/06

For the rookie fantasy owner, all of the numbers and lingo that are associated with fantasy football can be as intimidating as strapping on some pads and going head-up with Ray Lewis. Come draft day, the list of available players that is several hundred strong can be awfully formidable. Often a “newbie” fantasy owner will make several mistakes that will make their season destined for the toilet. If you are an experienced owner, here is a list to chuckle about as you reminisce back to your very first league. If you are a new owner that is smacking the panic button because of your rapidly approaching draft day, fill yourself with knowledge on the top ten biggest no-no’s.

10. Ignoring Draft Position
Let’s say you are playing fantasy football for the first time in a simple 12-team league. Your league requires that you start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one defense/special teams unit, and one kicker. You have your laptop on the table and heaps of fantasy articles and projections scattered around you. Your draft time is nearing and you discover that you will have the #1 overall pick. “Great” you say. “I’ll take Peyton Manning. He seems like he would be the best fantasy player with all those touchdown passes and passing yards.” While Manning is a solid pick, there are several other positions you still must fill. By taking Manning first overall, the quality depth of the positions where you must start two players will take a serious hit. Since most leagues reverse the draft order every other round, you will not have another pick until 18 other players have been yanked off the board. To get an idea of the dire situation you would be in, let’s look at FFToday’s very own mock draft with the only difference being Manning #1.

Pick 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P. Manning L. Johnson L. Tomlinson S. Alexander T.
Barber
C. Portis R. Brown L. Jordan S. Smith S. Jackson C. Williams B. Westbrook
Pick 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
R. Johnson E. James C. Johnson T.
Holt
L. Fitzgerald T. Owens M. Harrison J. Jones R. Moss D. Davis W. McGahee

  = RBs

By the time you pick again at 24, all of the elite running backs are gone and only the “middle-of-the-pack” running backs are left. This will put you in a terrible bind because it means you will most likely be starting two backs that are either sub-par or not featured backs in real life. A more reasonable place to pick Manning would be at the end of round one or in round two.

An important thought to always keep in mind is “What players will be available when I make my next pick?” Almost all leagues require two starting running backs, but there are very few elite ones in the NFL. A fantasy owner must always be wary of who is available and of his/her draft position. The first overall pick is only fine and dandy if you know how to use it.

9. Ignoring Draft Tendencies
Tunnel vision can make a fantasy owner’s team bound for the scrap heap. You can have a list of players that you would kill to have, but the fact is that you will not have the chance to draft everyone you want. It is pertinent that a fantasy owner pays attention to the way others are drafting so that the best available player is selected. If there has been a long run on running backs before you, the sensible thing to do is to consider the best available player at all positions.

Since running back is such a crucial position in fantasy football, some owners go into their draft with the strategy of selecting a running back with their first two picks, regardless of what’s occurring around them. While this will most likely get them the strongest group of backs in the league, it will be very difficult for this owner to win his/her league because of the resulting lack of depth at other positions. Let’s look at the mock draft again, this time with Manning in his actual spot and not #1.

Pick 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
L. Johnson L. Tomlinson S. Alexander T.
Barber
C. Portis R. Brown L. Jordan S. Smith S. Jackson C. Williams B. Westbrook R. Johnson
Pick 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
E. James C. Johnson T.
Holt
L. Fitzgerald T. Owens M. Harrison P. Manning J. Jones R.
Moss
D. Davis W. McGahee A. Boldin

The owner holding the number six pick in the first round paid attention to a trend to benefit themselves in round two. First time fantasy owners have a tendency to panic whenever there are a few consecutive picks of the same position. There are several reasons for this. First of all, they might be slightly intimidated by the other owners. They might think, “This is my first time and all of the other, more experienced owners are picking wide receivers. Maybe I should too since I don’t really know what I’m doing.” Another reason a beginner might feel the urge to follow suit is because they are afraid that all of the standout players at that particular position will be gone if they don’t pick them ASAP. In reality, recognizing a trend (such as the run on wide receivers in picks 14-18) can be used as a tremendous advantage. For example, take a look at the owner with the seventh overall pick (who also had pick number nineteen overall). This owner made their first choice a running back, an intelligent pick that gave them several options in round two. For five straight picks ahead of them in the second round, wide receivers were snatched off the board. So, instead of following suit and taking the seventh or eighth best receiver, they stole arguably the best quarterback. In doing so, the owner took the best possible player in each of their first two picks, knowing that there would still be several quality receivers to choose from in round three.

8. Ignoring Off-Season Player Movement
In 2004, Daunte Culpepper dropped a bombshell on the NFL as he exploded for 4717 yards and 39 td passes. Then a trade was made last off-season in which some guy named Randy Moss was shipped to Oakland. Culpepper then proceeded to have the worst start to a season in his career, tossing up twelve picks and only six tds in just seven games. If you want to be a consistent, dominating fantasy owner, you simply cannot be a casual fan. Even the most miniscule changes to a team can have a domino effect on fantasy football, and you have to be right on top of things. Here’s a look at some notable transactions during the 2004 off-season and their effects (positive and negative) on surrounding players or units in the 2005 season:

The Effect Off-Season Player Movement
Player(s) Teammate Added Or Lost
Effect On Player Stats
QB Brett Favre Lost G Marco Rivera; Lost G Mike Wahle -207 pass yds, -10 tds, +12 ints
QB Daunte Culpepper Lost WR Randy Moss Was on pace for: -1142 pass yds, -25 tds, +16 ints
QB Kurt Warner and QB Eli Manning Added WR Plaxico Burress +760 pass yds, +12 tds
QB Patrick Ramsey and QB Mark Brunell Trade WR Laveranues Coles for WR Santana Moss +474 pass yds, +7 tds, -6 ints
All CHI QB’s Added WR Muhsin Muhammad +2 pass tds, -1 int
QB Jake Delhomme Lost WR Muhsin Muhammad -465 pass yds, -5 tds, +1 int
All TB QB’s Lost WR Joe Jurevicious; Lost G Cosey Coleman; Lost WR Tim Brown -584 pass yds, -7 pass tds
WR Lee Evans Lost QB Drew Bledsoe -100 rec yds, -2 tds
WR Eric Moulds Lost QB Drew Bledsoe -227 rec yds, -1 td
All TEN QB’s Lost WR Derrick Mason -7 pass tds
CLE Offense Added RB Reuben Droughns +2 spots in total offense rank
QB Trent Green Lost WR Johnnie Morton; Lost RB Derrick Blaylock -577 pass yds, -10 tds
WR Jerry Porter Added WR Randy Moss -56 yds, -4 tds

Countless beginners get too wrapped up in the success of a player in the previous year and don’t consider vital players that have been added or released during the off-season. Success breeds success in the NFL, and that is why it is rare to see a Probowler from a bad team. To be a distinguished fantasy owner, you must analyze tiny details about a player when considering him for a high draft pick. You can’t afford to waste any picks, so make sure you don’t make a classic rookie mistake and ignore the offseason.

7. Forgetting or Choosing Not to Pre-Rank Players
I have yet to come across a fantasy website that does not allow owners to pre-rank all NFL players before their draft. However, it is easy for a new owner to underestimate the importance and value of this tool. The “experts” that create the projections for every player are not psychics, nor is it fair that we expect them to be. The fact is that every owner in a fantasy league is in for one reason: they want to be in control. Pre-rankings are the most important thing to use to get your fantasy career off the ground. They give you full control over who you want to draft and when you want to draft them. The pre-rank option is critical to fantasy for two reasons. Number one, it aids a fantasy owner in remaining organized. Secondly, it is absolutely necessary if a fantasy owner believes that he/she will not be able to show up for the live draft.

Since all fantasy drafts allot a certain amount of time to each owner to make their pick, organization is key. Once the draft starts, there is no pause button. Owners do not have all day, and that can be a frightening concept for beginners. If you have already ranked your players, it will be a fairly simple process. The players you held in high regard will be at the top of the list. Unlike the lazy owner that chose not to pre-rank players, you will not have to wipe away nervous beads of sweat while frantically scrolling through the endless list of NFL players. Having a previously thought out plan can be the difference between the basement of your league and hoisting the crown.

The other important reason to pre-rank players is in case you have any doubts about making your league’s draft. I’ve seen it numerous times. A rookie fantasy owner excitedly signs up for a league as soon as possible, and then simply tosses it from his/her mind. These people are easily recognizable by the draft timer ticking down to zero with every pick. No, they are not analyzing and comparing several players or consulting their fantasy magazine before making a well-thought out choice just as the timer runs out. They are simply not there. Then, of course, the computer picks their team for them and thus dooms them to the league basement. Projections are all fine and dandy, but seldom are they even 50% correct and they are never totally foolproof. The best way to form a team that is competitive every week is to trust your own gut and draft your own players. The depressing results from a computer-picked fantasy team can be avoided with a list of pre-ranked players.

6. Ignoring Player Bye Weeks
Here is a look at a team assembled in FFToday’s mock draft:

vipers - 1st Pick
Round Player
Bye
1 Larry Johnson (RB) 3
2 Anquan Boldin (WR) 9
3 Chris Chambers (WR) 8
4 Andre Johnson (WR) 5
5 Fred Taylor (RB) 6
6 DeAngelo Williams (RB) 9
7 Marc Bulger (QB) 7
8 Heath Miller (TE) 4
9 Braylon Edwards (WR) 6
10 Bucs D/ST 4
11 Laurence Maroney (RB) 6
12 Greg Jones (RB) 6

The owner drafted five running backs altogether. This would seem like a wise draft strategy that would give the owner considerable depth, but notice how three of those backs have the same bye weeks (week six). As a result, the owner would be forced to start Larry Johnson and DeAngelo Williams that week, even if they were hurt or having a disappointing season. It is important to draft the best available players, but keeping the bye weeks in mind is highly recommended. This owner had enough running backs that they could start two, but here is another team that was put in a tough position due to the bye weeks:

U Dub - 3rd Pick
Round Player
Bye
1 Shaun Alexander (RB) 5
2 Domanick Davis (RB) 5
3 Reggie Wayne (WR) 6
4 Santana Moss (WR) 8
5 Cedric Benson (RB) 7
6 Eli Manning (QB) 4
7 Curtis Martin (RB) 9
8 Chris Cooley (TE) 8
9 Nate Burleson (WR) 5
10 Isaac Bruce (WR) 7
11 Jacksonville D/ST 6
12 Chris Simms (QB) 4

When week four rolls around, this owner will have no QB to start because Chris Simms and Eli Manning both have the day off. Yet another thing to avoid when drafting a team is picking several players with the same bye week, even if they don’t have the same position. That way, you won’t have an army of backups playing on a particular week and guaranteeing you a loss.

5. Drafting Favorite Players, Not Best Players
So what if he is one of the most electrifying players and big-play threats ever to be drafted? Reggie Bush is not worth a top 3 pick just because you are a Saints or Trojans fan and loves how he plays. Drafting favorite players over the best players is one of the most common and worst mistakes that rookie fantasy owners make. “But I’m a diehard Chicago Bears fan” you might say. That’s fine. Select their raging, formidable defense. But the game is called fantasy football for a reason. I don’t know too many people that fantasize about having Rex Grossman run their team.

It is vital for an owner to do their homework before heading into a draft. Having a gameplan is commendable. Make sure you are aware of which players are elite or expected to be elite in the upcoming season. Familiarize yourself with the sleepers and the young guys. Figure out which players have more potential and better odds for success. Some of your favorite players might be the best, but it is important to not let that cloud your vision. New fantasy owners often fail to gather all the information they can about NFL players. They sometimes feel more comfortable selecting a player they know more about. All options must be weighed during a draft and the best player must be selected.

4. Ignoring Players’ Ages
Every once in a while a longtime veteran has a breakout year. And of course there are many vets that have been consistent contributors throughout their careers. These players often lead to tussles among rookie fantasy owners over the old guy while experienced owners are snickering behind their backs. Don’t be the owner getting laughed at. Always take into account a player’s age before drafting him early. Here are some recent examples of creaky-jointed vets that left fantasy owners sobbing in a corner:

Age Is A Factor
Player Season Stats
Age That Season
Stats Next Season
Curtis Martin (RB) 2004: 1697 rush yds, 12 tds 31 735 rush yds, 5 tds*
Corey Dillon (RB) 2004: 1635 rush yds, 12 tds Turned 30 during season 733 rush yds, 12 tds*
Fred Taylor (RB) 2004: 1224 rush yds, 2 tds 28 787 rush yds, 3 tds*
Priest Holmes (RB) 2003: 1420 rush yds, 27 tds Turned 30 during season 892 rush yds, 14 tds*
Marshall Faulk (RB) 2001: 2147 total yds, 21 total tds* 28 1480 total yds, 10 total tds*
Rich Gannon (QB) 2002: 4689 pass yds, 26 tds 36 1274 pass yds, 6 tds*
Tommy Maddox (QB) 2003: 3414 pass yds, 18 tds 32 329 pass yds, 1 td*
Drew Bledsoe (QB) 2002: 4359 pass yds, 24 tds 30 2860 pass yds, 11 tds
Steve McNair (QB) 2003: 3215 pass yds, 24 tds 30 1343 pass yds, 8 tds*
Brad Johnson (QB) 2003: 3811 pass yds, 26 tds Turned 35 during season 674 pass yds, 3 tds*
Tim Brown (WR) 2001: 1165 rec yds, 9 tds 36 930 rec yds, 2 tds

*Player became injured and did not play in all 16 games

Just because an older player has been terrific his entire career doesn’t mean he will maintain the same pace. Everyone has to slow down at some point, and the above chart proves it. Most of these players were hot commodities in their fantasy drafts, but disappointed the next season. Beginning fantasy owners and experts alike must always be wary of the ages of the players they are selecting.

3. Selecting Injury-Prone Players
Any player (no matter how talented he may be) is worth zilch if he is not on the field. Beginners are often blinded by the star power of these players, arguing that they are the best at their positions. What these owners don’t realize, however, is that these players will only put up gargantuan numbers for a few weeks. Then they pull a hammy or break a bone and are worthless to fantasy owners. In most cases, the player is designated as an “un-droppable.” This, of course, forces the owner to keep him and drop another player from the team so that a replacement can be made. It’s a horrifying chain reaction that doesn’t stop until the season is over.

Most injuries do not just keep players off the field a certain amount of weeks and then go away. Some, such as pulled hamstrings, tend to hang over a player like a dark cloud for the entire season. This can be doubly dangerous to owners because it becomes an extremely difficult decision on who to start. You might take out the backup and plug your “star” back in, but you also take the risk of him not playing well. What’s worse, the backup that you threw on the bench might have a great game. It’s all guesswork when you are dealing with injuries, and that’s why it’s smart to avoid injury-prone players. If you absolutely feel you must draft these players for their talent and potential, however, hold out as long as possible in the draft room and be sure you are getting them for a bargain. Here are some of the most injury-prone players during the last three seasons:

Injury-Prone The Last 3 Seasons
Player Games Missed
(Out of 48)
Chris Brown RB 11
Correll Buckhalter RB 33
Najeh Davenport RB 17
Ahman Green RB 12
Priest Holmes RB 17
Julius Jones RB 11 (out of 32)
Deuce McAllister RB 13
Duce Staley RB 17
Kyle Boller QB 12
Marc Bulger QB 11
Mark Brunell QB 20
Steve McNair QB 12
Chad Pennington QB 22
Michael Vick QB 13
Reche Caldwell WR 16
Tyrone Calico WR 21
Joe Jurevicious WR 17
David Patten WR 17
Peter Warrick WR 16
Rashaun Woods WR 18 (out of 32)

2. Not Making Transactions Throughout the Season
Despite what you might tell your friends, family, or co-workers, you will never draft the perfect fantasy team. I have never seen an owner win a league without making any changes to the team he drafted, and I never will. The hard truth is that some of your picks will be busts. That’s what the free agent wire and trade option is for.

Beginning fantasy owners, for some strange reason, seem reluctant to tinker with their team. Perhaps they don’t know exactly how to propose a trade or add/drop a player. Many times they will let their team sit and rot until it is a pathetic collection of players on the IR. Then they simply give up and present the rest of their opponents with an easy win. This can aggravate other owners that have been doing everything possible to strengthen their team.

Making trades is a valuable way to gaining an edge over your opponents. It can either give you better depth at a weak position or snatch a quality player away from your enemies. Everyone gauges value differently, and that’s why it is possible to get a player that you really want. You may select Chad Johnson in your draft and then get a hunch later that Randy Moss will have a better season. If another owner has the exact opposite feeling than you, then the trade will work. Also, you may run into an owner that doesn’t evaluate trade proposals very well, allowing you to receive a player like Tiki Barber for Kevan Barlow. It can happen, so always try a trade or two.

Adding or dropping players is an equally effective way of strengthening your team, and is fairly easier than trading. Every year, there are huge surprises and sleepers that explode out of nowhere. These players are the ones that go un-drafted and are available to snatch up off of the proverbial “scrap heap” at any time. I, for one, was able to grab two stars that were instrumental in my championship run. Their names? Larry Johnson and Mike Anderson. If you are right on top of things, great additions can be made to your team without the pain of losing a star player (as in trades). So if you are a beginner, remember to keep your eye on the free agents throughout the season.

1. Not Showing for Draft at All
It’s hard to have fun and be competitive if you don’t even draft your own team. That’s what will happen if you forget your draft date: the computer picks it for you. Not only is it a bad way to assemble a team, but it also aggravates the other owners that have to wait for your timer to run out for every one of your picks. Fantasy football is meant to give regular Joes control over a team of their own with real NFL players. You can’t win the league if you don’t have a team, so write down the date and get your draft aids out!