Here is a mix of interesting questions I received from fantasy players
this past week, and the response provided. If you have a question
for the HTH Mailbag, just drop
me an email.
Note that not all questions will be answered because it just isn't
possible to respond to them all. Also there are no certainties in
fantasy football. The responses represent one opinion to consider
in your final decision managing your fantasy team. Overall, I just
Hope This Helps...
Mike, With the trading deadline in my league being
this week, I wanted to get your opinion on some trades possibilities.
First, I am heavy at WR, but not so good at TE. I have: Randy
Moss, Derrick Mason, Eric Moulds, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd,
and Donte' Stallworth at WR and Dallas Clark at TE. Normally I
would just try to trade a WR for a TE, but my problem is that
with Moss being out for possibly two more weeks, I don't know
if I can afford to trade one right now. I'm 5-4 and I can't give
away any games, so I'm wondering if you think that I should just
sit tight or do you think that I can get enough out of the remaining
WRs and my new TE to make a trade worth making now. If so, which
WR should I trade?
Second, I was considering trading for a new quarterback. My league
gives 6 pts for TDs, but only 1 pt for every 50 passing yards
(heavy emphasis on TDs and not yards). I can probably get Trent
Green or Brett Favre (both are backups on their teams). I currently
have Aaron Brooks. Is it even worth trading for one of these QBs
or should I stick with Brooks? I just feel that Green and Favre
have a much greater potential for a 3 or 4 TD game. Brooks throws
for yards, but you can never expect more than 2 TDs from him,
I know this was a long one, but thanks for the time. Dan
Hey Dan. Didn't we already discuss the TE situation before? In all honesty I'd be happy with Clark. Even though he is splitting with Pollard, Manning is throwing their way enough right now so they are both productive and you can almost count on a TD at least every other week. Not bad for a cheap TE.
If you do a deal for a TE, then I would look to trade Mason from that bunch. If you start 3 WR then it is tenuous but you should be able to hold on until Moss returns assuming no more injuries. Whether to do a deal or not will entirely depend on what kind of bargain you can swing. In a TD focused league though, like I said, Clark ain't bad.
I agree Brooks has been frustrating, but how much better Favre and Green will be is uncertain. If those teams have their way (Packers and Chiefs), then they will run the ball more then pass, so games with either one getting 0 or only 1 TD will happen. I'm not sure it is much of an upgrade to have to pay for one of those guys.
Maybe it would be better to target a higher upside guy who is playing well and the owner may have (a) not paid a lot for him, (b) not have full confidence in yet, and (c) still has as a backup but needs roster help elsewhere (WR). Players I'm thinking about in this category are Drew Brees, Tim Rattay, Jake Plummer, Jake Delhomme, Brian Griese (okay, I never thought I'd be saying to someone think about acquiring Griese). I'd put them in that order of preference too.
Honestly, I think I would be more willing to take a chance on Matt Hasselbeck (who's owner has to be frustrated to date) as well then targeting Favre or Green. Not that you should eliminate them from consideration, but I'm just not that confident in them over Brooks. If I'm way off on what different owners are demanding in return, and you can get Favre or Green (preferably Favre) cheap then do it.
Question: I have Chad Pennington (out 2-4 weeks), and the free
agent field is thin. Do I take:
Tim Rattay is my back-up, so I need to really consider planning
if he goes down again. I am intrigued by Garrard's potential.
Thankfully you have Rattay Pat, because he has been putting up starter quality
points most weeks, and let's keep our fingers crossed he does stay
healthy. I'm intrigued by Garrard too but he could perform at either
end of the spectrum and it wouldn't surprise me a bit. I'd go with
your instinct and take Garrard. Both Palmer and Carter have bad
matchups this week, so should Garrard falter they will likely be
available again the following week.
Hi Mike, I loved your stat
chart of production by position to this point in the season.
The one category I found missing was FGs. I haven't been able
to locate any data, but the number of 50-yard plus FGs seems high
so far this year. Also, the number of 3 or 4 FG games, but I don't
think that is excessive. Anyway, keep writing.
Dan M., Avid but Average Fantasy Player
You may call yourself an average fantasy player Dan, but you've made some astute
observations. Here is the data I was able to pull together:
Number Of FGs Scored By
2004 (9 Wks)
Multiple FG Games
2004 (9 Wks)
5+ FG games
4+ FG games
3+ FG games
2 + FG games
More or less we are at the halfway point, and the number of 50 yard
FGs connected on this year is way ahead of the pace from the prior
3 years. There have been 36 already, compared to a low of 38 and
high of 45 a season since 2001. The interesting thing is the number
of misses from 50+ yards is not any higher then the prior years.
So, this tells us that coaches are sending in the kicker for more
chances from 50+ then in recent history, and the kickers are getting
better at hitting from that distance. Successful FGs from the other
shorter distances do not seem drastically different from prior years
through the first 9 weeks of this season.
As for multiple FG games, if anything they seem a little less then
in the past 3 years. Certainly the 5+ FG games are way off with
only 1 so far this year by John Carney back in week 3 against the
Rams. Also the 4+ and 3+ FG games are less then half the norm. Off
the top of my head, I'm not sure how to explain that, especially
in light of more 50+ yard FGs. I'd better go back and check the
data. Does it seem like there are more blowouts this year? Or perhaps,
more accurately, high powered offenses (Chiefs, Colts, Vikings)
scoring TDs early and often so other teams abandon the FG option
and try to score TDs to keep up to them? That could be one theory
to look into.
I'll have to give this some more thought. Any theories you might
have upon consideration of these stats, please send them over.