Christian McCaffrey could very reasonably be placed into the
“No-Brainers” category, but it’s important to
consider just how dominant this super-stud running back has been.
McCaffrey finished with over 100 more fantasy points than any
other running back this season and he was productive with absolutely
everything he did. Not only did he manage to break 100 rushing
yards in seven games, he also scored at least one touchdown in
all but three games he played, while also catching 67 passes.
The guy is like a prototype for absurd fantasy production.
Now McCaffrey gets to face a Kansas City defense that was great
overall this season, but had some real problems against opposing
running games down the stretch. They didn’t allow a single
running back to reach even 70 rushing yards in any of their first
six games, but then seven different running backs did so over
their final 11 regular season games. This would’ve seemingly
been a place for the Ravens to attack this past week as their
running game has long been the focal point of their offense, but
they instead opted to give just six total carries to their running
backs in a 17-10 loss at home. Don’t expect the 49ers to
make that same mistake, as they will almost certainly feed McCaffrey
early and often in this one.
The 49ers’ dynamic wide receiver duo of Brandon Aiyuk and
Deebo Samuel has been extremely productive this season and they
were again the focal point of the San Francisco passing game against
the Lions in the NFC Championship game. San Francisco is full
of playmakers so it’s sometimes difficult to predict which
players are going to be productive, but this matchup against the
Chiefs makes things even more difficult as Kansas City has been
one of the league’s best pass defenses. In fact, the Chiefs
gave up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide
receivers during the regular season. And haven’t given up
a 100-yard receiver since Week 7. Only two receivers got to that
mark against them at all this season.
The reason to still remain a bit optimistic about Aiyuk and Samuel
is that the 49ers do an excellent job of scheming touches for
their best playmakers, which oftentimes means a huge target share
for Aiyuk and manufactured screen passes or even rushing plays
for Samuel. These types of plays can produce fantasy numbers even
if the Chiefs are normally great at defending against wide receivers,
so while we need to temper our expectations for them, they may
still come through because of how they’re utilized.
Kittle quietly led all tight ends in receiving yardage this season,
so putting him in the “Fade” category does feel wrong,
but this is a player who’s now been held to four or fewer
receptions in seven of his past eight games. Certainly, he’s
one of the most productive per-catch tight ends in the history
of the league so he’s often able to produce a big play or
two on minimal touches, including touchdowns, but these low receptions
totals have to be taken into consideration especially when the
49ers are matching up with a defense that’s been as difficult
to move the ball on as the Chiefs have been. Kansas City just
got done locking up the duo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely,
only allowing four receptions for 31 yards to them, and they also
held Dalton Kincaid to just 45 yards in the Divisional Round.
Including the playoffs, the Chiefs have only allowed four touchdowns
to opposing tight ends throughout this season. Kittle remains
one of the all-time greats at the position, but this is a particularly
difficult matchup for him.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Rashee Rice has established himself as by far the Chiefs’
top wide receiver as he caught eight of the nine passes that came
his way against the Ravens in the AFC Championship. Rice has now
finished with at least five catches in eight of his past nine
games, making him an extremely reliable fantasy option who also
possesses excellent upside. The 49ers have been a great defense
throughout the season, but they have struggled to contain opposing
wide receivers at times. In fact, they were in the bottom half
of total fantasy points given up to the position. They did hold
every other Lions receiver to fewer than three catches, but Amon-Ra
St. Brown still caught seven passes for 87 yards in the NFC Championship.
The 49ers gave up nine receptions for 97 yards to Sam LaPorta
in their last game and now they have the unenviable task of trying
to contain perhaps the greatest tight end in the history of the
league in Travis Kelce. San Francisco was not particularly bad
against opposing tight ends this season, but some of the league’s
better tight ends have performed well against them. Zach Ertz,
T.J. Hockenson, and Trey McBride all had quality fantasy games
against San Francisco and with Kelce still being the focal point
of the Kansas City passing game - and with the national spotlight
firmly pointed at him - there’s a great chance that he adds
his name to the list of TEs who’ve had productive games
against the 49ers this season.
With the Chiefs passing game struggling much more than usual
this season, they’ve relied on their rushing attack late
in the year which has done wonders for Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy
production. Pacheco has scored at least one touchdown in seven
straight games and he’s also exceeded 85 rushing yards in
four of those seven games. His matchup against the 49ers is not
one that we’d normally want to target as they managed to
avoid allowing a single 100-yard rusher throughout the entire
regular season, but things have gone off the rails a bit over
the past two weeks as they allowed Aaron Jones to reach 100 yards
in the Divisional Round and then David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs
combined for 138 rushing yards in the NFC Championship. Pacheco
just might be the sneakiest option who could end up with a big
game in the Super Bowl.
Fading Patrick Mahomes has been an excellent option throughout
the second half of the season and even on into the Chiefs’
playoff run, but given that San Francisco has been one of the
better run defenses in the league this season, it only makes sense
that if Kansas City is going to hoist the Lombardi trophy again
that they’re going to need a big game out of their quarterback.
The unfortunate reality, though, is that Mahomes just has not
been a good fantasy player down the stretch this season. He hasn’t
been completely miserable, but he’s uncharacteristically
thrown just 10 touchdown passes over his past eight games, while
also throwing five interceptions, and he hasn’t added a
single rushing touchdown all season long. Now he faces a San Francisco
defense that is beatable through the air, but one that tends to
keep games fairly low-scoring, so there’s a lot more risk
to going with Mahomes this week than some would like to believe.
