Bye Weeks: Dallas, Jacksonville, Baltimore, New York Jets

Its time to play, Guess the Patriots Gameplan! Is it Shane Vereen's week to shine?

Grab a Helmet

Alfred Morris v. TB: You don’t have to search far to find the numbers that show just how much more effective Alfred Morris is when RGIII is in to threaten the edge. Despite being basically horrid this season, the Tampa defense has been better than average against the run this year. They have given up the 7th most runs of 20+ yards though, so look for Morris to hit a few creases and find the end zone. He’s found pay dirt in two straight games and if RGIII can remain healthy, could be a rock solid RB1 this week and the rest of the way.

Shane Vereen vs. IND: Patriot running backs are famous for being the Jeckyl and Hyde of fantasy football. One week they pile up touches, and the next they are virtually ignored, so picking when to start one is a test of “guess the game plan”. Being at home, I think the Colts are going to play very aggressively against Brady and the Pats offense. They’ll need to blitz, and this plays right into the quick strike game plan of the Patriots. Look for heavy doses of Vereen in and out of the backfield, especially early as New England sets up the play action game. Look for a touchdown from Vereen on a wheel route or a screen on the edge. His two highest touch (15) and best games came against teams that played aggressive (NYJ, DEN). Look for similar numbers this week, making Vereen low end RB2/High end FLEX play.

Matt Asiata/Jerick McKinnon @ CHI: Let me take a moment to drop a wacky stat on you. Matt Asiata has had (3) three-touchdowns games out of the 14 total games he has appeared in. This means that Asiata has scored 3 touchdowns in a whopping 21% of the games he’s played in! Small sample size not-withstanding, Asiata has a clear role in this backfield for the time being. He’s money at the goaline, a place where Jerick McKinnon and the Vikings offense should visit often against the listless Bears defense. The echoes of Halas Hall are screaming bloody murder at the state of this Bears team, as they’ve looked helpless surrendering 50+ points two games in a row. The days of McKinnon and Asiata being fantasy relevant could dry up quickly with the possible return of AP, so get while the gettin’s good, and make these two guys strong FLEX plays this week.

Grab Some Pine

Lamar Miller v. BUF (THUR): Miller has greatly improved as an NFL runner this season, and has been one of fantasy football’s best values, but a perfect storm of circumstances make him a very poor start this week. Not only is Miller battling a shoulder injury, but he’s coming off by far his worst game, a game in which the Dolphins lost their best offensive lineman for the season. A short week against a division rival with a dominating front four, and the fact LaMichael James was called up from the practice squad all spells disaster for Miller. Unless I was bereft of running back talent, I would have Miller on my bench this week.

Reggie Bush, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick @ ARI: Bush has a bum ankle, Bell has yet to reach 100 total yards in a game, and Riddick is seeing spotty usage. This trio’s inconsistency is further complicated by the fact the Lions have injury concerns along the right side of the line, with starting guard Larry Warford out, and starting tackle LaAdrian Waddle banged up. All this during a week the Lions travel on the road to face off against a Cardinal team that that sports one of the top run defenses in the NFL. Consider this trio of Leos no more than weak FLEX plays in Week 11.

Tre Mason vs DEN: It seems that this muddled Rams backfield has finally settled on Mason as its lead ball carrier. That’s great for his long term potential, but after a breakout 18-85-1 line in Week 7 vs Seattle, Mason has been very average, failing to find the end zone or exceed 65 yards. I’m not sure of what to make of his 4 catches for 33 yards on 6 targets last week. He had only 4 targets total in his previous 4 games, and up until last week was a forgotten man on passing downs. The Rams should be forced to play catch-up against the Denver Mannings, which leaves Mason owners in a tough spot. To me, the matchup and inconsistent usage means Mason is no better than a stretch FLEX play.

Wide Receivers