2004 Fantasy Outlook Coaches: John Fox (HC),
Dan Henning (OC), Mike Trgovac (DC) Passing SOS: 3rd (1 = Easy,
32 = Difficult) Rushing SOS: 5th (1 = Easy,
32 = Difficult)
The Panthers have concentrated most of their offseason efforts
on the defensive side of the ball, trying to improve their secondary
and have been very quiet on the free agent front. That means will
be seeing the same offensive faces in Carolina this season. Jake
Delhomme begins his first training camp as "the guy"
(remember Rodney Peete actually started Week 1 last year) and
fresh off a new contract that included around $12 million in bonuses.
Delhomme will spend a lot of time handing off to Stephen Davis
and DeShaun Foster but if the last half of 2003 is any indication,
the Panthers may open up the offense a bit more and take advantage
of their top-notch ground game; assuming their offensive line
can gel. Many changes have occurred upfront and is the main offensive
concern heading into the season. Jeno James, Kevin Donnalley,
and Todd Steussie... all starters in '03 are gone and Center Jeff
Mitchell is the only starting lineman in '03 who will line up
at the same position in 2004. So if you're one of those that believe
a major factor in a team's fantasy success is tied to the strength
and continuity of its offensive line.... be aware.
Quarterbacks:Jake
Delhomme, Rodney Peete, Chris Weinke
Delhomme is in a scheme that suits him. He's got solid arm strength
and makes good decisions but isn't flashy which fits Dan Henning's
offensive style. He stepped in for Rodney Peete (injured) in Week
1 and never looked back on his way to a Super Bowl appearance.
Where did this come from? Delhomme had only started 2 games prior
to the 2003 season... two. It goes to show you what a great running
game and a nasty defense can do for your QB.
Its interesting to note that in the first half of last year, Delhomme
was brought along slowly; in fact he didn't throw for over 200
yards until Week 9. RB Stephen Davis was carrying the load but
as Delhomme got more comfortable with the offense and OC Dan Henning
got more comfortable with Delhomme, the Panthers passing game
improved. Over the last 8 weeks of the season, Delhomme averaged
29.6 pass attempts (to just 23 pass attempts the first 9 weeks)
and Steve Smith turned into a receiver he could trust. Now that
Delhomme is comfortable, don't be surprised to see the Panthers
loosen the chains a little and let Delhomme open it up from the
beginning making him a good bet to bump his numbers from a year
ago.
Running Backs:Stephen Davis,
DeShaun Foster, Rod Smart Fullbacks: Brad Hoover, Nick
Goings
Stephen Davis is typical workhorse. He's got power, decent speed
and always finishes runs falling forward. He carried the ball
318 times last year on his way to 1444 yards and 8 TDs. Steve
Spurrier didn't want him and the Panthers couldn't say "Thank
you" enough. Much like Delhomme is a perfect fit in this
offseason, so is Davis. The power running game is what John Fox
wants and Davis delivers. But, DeShaun Foster delivers too. He
filled in nicely for Davis last season and although Fox has been
vague in response to how he'll use the two lead backs this season,
there's no doubt Foster will play a significant role. You can
dissect the coach-speak and come to your own conclusions...
"DeShaun stepped in for us in a lot of big spots last year.
When you are an NFL running back, you are going to have moments.
Everybody is trying to whoop you, and sometimes you get nicks.
If you are going to run the ball and commit to the run like we
do, my belief is you need two (running backs). He is definitely
going to be part of our plans. He is very, very talented and made
a lot of big plays for us last year and he will make a lot of
big plays for us this year."
Hard to turn quotes like that into actual numbers and I'm sure
Fox doesn't want to tip his hand to the rest of the league. Some
are of the belief Davis and Foster will split carries 50-50. Last
year the tandem rushed the ball 431 times with Davis account for
74% of the touches. I don't see any reason for a drastic change
in philosophy but considering Foster's proven abilities a 65-35
split seems about right. Also note that Foster has big upside
given Davis' age (30+) and bruising running style. He's one of
the backs that you should target in the middle-to-late rounds
whether or not you own Stephen Davis.
Projected Stats
Stephen Davis - 1,165 yds, 8 TDs; 18 rec, 121 yds, 0 TDs; 176.6
FF Pts
DeShaun Foster - 657 yds, 4 TDs; 32 rec, 226 yds, 1 TDs; 118.3
FF Pts
Nick Goings - 87 yds, 0 TDs; 12 rec, 65 yds, 0 TDs; 15.2 FF Pts
Rod Smart - 22 yds, 0 TDs; 2 rec, 14 yds, 0 TDs; 3.6 FF Pts
Brad Hoover - 40 yds, 1 TD; 16 rec, 107 yds, 1 TDs; 26.7 FF Pts Wide Receivers:Steve
Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Ricky Proehl, Keary Colbert, Karl Hankton,
Walter Young, Donald Hayes
Another Carolina player cashing in this offseason was Steve Smith.
Fantasy owners are aware of him but he still remains under the
national radar. I guess it takes more than 88 receptions, 1100+
yards, and a trip to the SuperBowl to get noticed. And because
of this perceived lack of respect, Smith has come to camp with
a chip on his shoulder... "I had a hard time sleeping before the
first day of camp," he said. "I need to prove to people that I'm
not a one-year wonder and all that junk."He's a little miffed
that he only made it as an "alternate" to the probably
and is constantly reminded that he's "too small" to
be a star receiver in this league.... enough. Last year, wasn't
a fluke. He's got speed and already demonstrated great hands early
in training camp making two spectacular catches on the first day
(so I'm told). He'll once again be the first receiving option
in the Carolina passing game.
Number two will be veteran Muhsin Muhammad. A player who always
seems to be undervalued as a fantasy receiver (#31 last year in
a standard performance scoring league). Perhaps we long for Moose
to put a season similar to 2000 when he caught 102 passes for
1183 yds and 6 TDs. Those days are long gone given his number
two status in a run-first offense but he does have value and adds
solid depth to your WR position.
Ricky Proehl has made a living off being a number three receiver
and guess what... that's exactly what he'll be again this season.
Rookie Keary Colbert should get a lot of work this preseason but
won't have a realistic chance of being anything but #4 on the
depth chart once the season begins. A spot he can achieve thanks
to the clavicle injury suffered by Donald Hayes and the knee injury
suffered by rookie Drew Carter.
Tight Ends:Kris
Mangum, Mike Seidman, Michael Gaines
Carolina makes little use of their Tight Ends. Kris Mangum led
the charge with 17 catches a year ago and will battle Mike Seidman
for the starting job this season. Seidman is returning from a
knee injury and is a little better receiver. Regardless of who
lands the starting job, both will see a lot of action as Carolina
often uses two tight ends in their formations.
