The regular season of the NFL is beginning to wind down.
Your league may be looking at playoffs next week and the big boys
are looking toward the Super Bowl. It is the time of year where
closure seems to be everywhere, but it may be a great time of year
to do some reflection.
Look at your draft from this year and check the last six players
you selected. If you are like a lot of people, you probably have
not played many of these players much, if at all. If this is the
case, then you have wasted one of the golden opportunities of the
draft… The chance to discover new talent and be the first one
on your block to have the next hot player in NFL fantasy football.
To see if you have squandered this chance, look past round eight.
In the first eight rounds of the draft you may have selected your
starters for the season and maybe a solid back up at one or two
of the positions. If you were typical you got the best kicker you
could find and settled for a tight end that may have one or two
good weeks during the season. From round nine on many people feel
it is garbage time and they are just trying to fill out the rest
of the rounds with players from their favorite teams, players who
have newly entered the league or may be coming off of injuries,
or players who may be in the twilight of their careers. Chances
are there is nothing really special in the last six picks of the
draft and you are busy covering off weeks, taking injuries into
account or just trying to make yourself feel good by selecting someone
comfortable. If this is the case, break out of the box and try some
different strategies next season. Look at these last six selections
as a valued six-pack of your favorite beverage and have some fun
while you enjoy every sip. This way you can covet every pick and
look forward to taking situational advantages during the long season
ahead. Dare to be different!
Identify the strategies of the players in your league. They may
be dying to take a player from their favorite team, but the team
really has little in quality talent. Despite this, they will take
any player just to have them on their team. It gives them something
to root for though the player may be a major disappointment during
the season. There is nothing wrong in doing this, but it is not
a productive tactic. If you did this in the last draft, don't be
offended, I once took Marc Wilson. Mark the owner with this strategy
as it provides you with the opportunity to sluff a round and pick
up some lesser-known talent later. You should also note the player
who is going to be smart and stay within the numbers.
This owner has their starting players and is going to take back
ups for each of the positions. This being the case, they are going
to take five players and leave themselves with the chance to select
one risk player for the season. They will probably take the afore
mentioned player coming off of an injury, the one with a year to
retirement or the one they may have had three years ago during their
glory years. Their last six may cover an off week for another player,
but that will end his tour of usefulness. You can identify these
owners by looking at the master draft list from the beginning of
the season and guess they will be doing the same thing next year.
During the draft next year, look for the owner treating the last
six picks as garbage time. They will be thumbing through the fantasy
magazine they bought on the way to the draft and they will be selecting
players they have never heard of because the book says they are
good. This owner may not realize these publications are written
and published before the preseason even starts and the player they
have selected may have already been cut or out for the season with
an injury. You can figure their strategy by buying a fantasy magazine
yourself and becoming familiar with their selections. It does not
matter which one you buy, their draft ratings are all about the
same. (I bought three this year, but they are a tax write off.)
Instead of wasting these last selections, have some fun and approach
them with a different attitude and game plan.
Even if you are out of the playoffs in your league, and feeling
discouraged, watch some of the teams who have struggled this season
and may have poor records. It is still the NFL regular season and
they may be playing against playoff contenders. They may not win,
but they may perform well and be testing new talent for next season.
According to the gurus who do the scheduling for next season, these
down trodden franchises should get an easier schedule outside of
their division by playing teams who also struggled this last season.
Study the players and take note of those who are showing some potential,
they could develop over the off-season and be steady players next
year. The 49ers had a terrible season last year, and their record
this year is nothing they want to share with their grandchildren,
but Jeff Garcia, Charlie Garner and Terrell Owens would have been
great selections for 2000. With another poor record this year, and
another year of development, 49ers could be premier team for next
year.
You can down play the performance of the three B's, Bengals, Browns
and Bears, this season, but they may have players who will blossom
next year. All three have quarterbacks entering their critical third
year of development and Akili Smith, Cade McNown and Tim Couch have
had moments of brilliance during the course of the season. They
also have wide receivers like Peter Warrick, Marcus Robinson and
Kevin Johnson who could have break out seasons. In addition to the
passing combinations they have backs like James Allen, Travis Prentice,
and the never consistent Corey Dillon to pin some sort of hope of
a running game upon. (Provided Corey is still in tiger stripes.)
Aside from these three league bottom feeders, the Cardinals have
the likes of Davis Boston and Michael Pittman who seem to be playing
hard despite their team's horrid performance this season. If there
is any truth in scheduling, these teams should have relatively cream
puff schedules and these players could be real terrors next year.
Looking at this season, there appears to be entire conferences with
a complete lack of defense. With the exception of the Saints, the
NFC West would fall into this category. The Rams can't win unless
they score over thirty points and you never know which Carolina
team is going to show. The two black and blue divisions, The NFC
and AFC Central, have the Bucs and the Titans, but the rest appear
to have put on the heavy gloves and seem to spend more time dancing
than hitting. Teams in the same conference play each other twice
during the season and this automatically provides double the opportunity
for solid performances from fantasy players.
Don't get caught in playing the numbers game when it comes to the
positions of tight end and kicker. With the exception of perhaps
the top five, tight end has become almost a non-scoring position.
In fact, some leagues are considering dropping the position all
together and allowing three wide outs to be played instead. The
position of kicker has always been a crapshoot. They are dependent
upon the variables of weather and an offensive that stalls when
it nears the red zone. Fill each of the positions with the best
player available during the draft, but don't select a back up. There
are always emerging or solid players you can get in the free agent
market and it provides you with two more open positions to fill
with potential scoring players during the last selections of the
draft. In the past Kurt Warner, Terrell Davis and Stephen Davis
were all bottom round selections. Allowing yourself two more spots
to select a potential star could make you the envy of the league,
or at least provide some interesting trade bait during the season.
Besides, there is always a dome kicker available sometime in the
season, you don't need one up front when the sun is shining and
the snow is not flying.
Aside from winning, the draft is probably the most fun part of any
fantasy season. Why look at the final six selections like everyone
else? There is no fun in being a part of the crowd, it is just being
a part of the status quo and you may as well just flush your last
six picks because they will be the same crap as the rest of the
owners have. The greatest decisions are made by people who dare
to be outside of the box of convention and seek the greener pastures
of the unknown. If Knute Rockne had never utilized the forward pass,
he may have become an unknown chemist. If Bill Gates had not thought
beyond FORTRAN, there would be no Microsoft. The greats have never
been confined in their thinking, they have always been different
from the rest and their risks have changed our lives. Be different,
be an individual, think outside of the box and dare to be great.
What have you got to lose except watching another year of fantasy
playoffs from the sidelines? Take the road less traveled and see
where you end up. What have you got to lose except being in the
money?
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