Heading into another big weekend and we'll do our best to keep you on
top of things. This is the Big Friday Update I promised and I've got
quite an array of things to throw at you. Due to the size, I'm breaking
it into 2 mailings. I'll start off with a few special excerpts from
my friend Bob Harris' TFL Flash Update Report. Then I'll jump to the
Players in the News where I'll give a quick rundown of players and then
I'll finish off with some detailed matchup analysis in our Matchups
to Avoid / Exploit.
Let's jump right to it.
Once the season begins, the weekly Matchups become a major factor in
determining which players to start. In this feature, I'll break down
some players I project to fare better or worse than might be expected.
I'll try to hit the less than obvious picks. If you want someone to
tell you Peyton Manning is good and Jon Kitna isn't, move along, nothing
to see here. But if you're looking for the matchup edges that can give
your team that push over the top, this kind of information is for you.
Remember, what I'm looking at here are matchups that will likely have
a player posting better or worse numbers than you might normally expect
from him. Not every Matchup to Exploit is a starter in your league and
not every Matchup to Avoid is a bench player for you. It's just something
to think about as you make those all important roster decisions. Buckle
up, it's going to be a fun ride.
QB Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better
than expected numbers this week.
CAR Steve Beuerlein vs SF
In the continuing education of rookie 49er CB Ahmed Plummer, Steve Beuerlein
instructs this week's lesson: "How the Crafty Veteran QB Makes You Look
Bad Underneath" Plummer may well be a solid player in this league someday,
but this weekend look for Beuerlein to light him up winging passes to
WRs Muhsin Muhammad and Donald Hayes. After being scorched by Chris Chandler
last week ( "How the Crafty Veteran QB Makes You Look Bad Deep") Plummer
will likely be rattled. With the WRs drawing plenty of attention, TE Wesley
Walls should have plenty of room to roam the middle. San Francisco didn't
register a sack last week against Atlanta and it'll be bad news if Beuerlein
has time to start picking his spots.
DEN Brian Griese vs ATL
We opened our Thursday
Weekly Cheatsheets with Griese as our #4 QB and feel very comfortable
with him there. All Summer long Coach Mike Shanahan spoke glowingly of
Griese calling his development "like night and day" compared to where
he was last season. With a stellar performance Monday night against the
defending Super Bowl Champs, he left little doubt that Shanahan was right.
This week he faces an Atlanta defense that gave up 253 passing yards and
3 TDs to San Francisco's Jeff Garcia last week. With Denver's tall and
physical WRs facing smallish corners Ashley Ambrose and Ray Buchanan,
Griese could easily match Garcia's numbers. Keep an eye on WR Ed McCaffrey.
He sat out of practice Thursday with a sore groin but is expected to play.
ATL Chris Chandler vs DEN
Chandler and the Falcons don't bring the same caliber of weapons
to the table that the Rams do, but then I'm not looking for the
Falcons to hang 441 passing yards on Denver like St. Louis did Monday
night. 300 will do just fine and I think they're capable of that.
Chandler looked amazingly in synch with new WR Shawn Jefferson and
Terance Mathis should be closer to 100% than he was last week (he
injured his hip in pregame warmups) The Falcons will surely try
to spread the field after the success St. Louis had to exploit a
suspect Bronco secondary. Safeties Billy Jenkins and Eric Brown
are more adept at run support than defending the pass. The Linebacking
corps is less than 100% with John Mobley's knee and Al Wilson's
separated shoulder.
QB Matchups That Could Go Either Way:
These players have situations that are a little less defined.
NE Drew Bledsoe vs NYJ
Bledsoe showed some guts last week as he stood (and fell) against a vicious
Buccaneer pass rush. He'll find the going much easier this weekend against
the Jets. The best thing about facing the Jets for Bledsoe will be the
fact Bill Belichick is now on Bledsoe's sideline. Belichick seemed to
have the knack for designing schemes that completely stymied Bledsoe the
last couple of years. The Jets will bring a 3-4 defense and a pass rush
that's relatively tame. They'll still likely blitz the LBs but Bledsoe
will have enough time to find WRs Terry Glenn, Troy Brown and Tony Simmons.
On the flip side, the Jets held Brett Favre and the Packers to 152 yards
passing last week. Even with Favre's elbow and a missing Dorsey Levens,
that's no small feat.
NYG Kerry Collins vs PHI
Philadelphia shut down the Cowboys last week while the Giants rolled over
Arizona. We'll see this weekend just how real both these teams are. The
Eagles are very confident in CBs Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent and they'll
likely leave them in single coverage to bring a better pass rush. Collins
will have to utilize his RBs and fortunately, both RB Tiki Barber and
FB Greg Comella are excellent receivers. TE Pete Mitchell is still likely
a week away from returning so Collins won't have that luxury. WRs Amani
Toomer and Ike Hilliard should be able to make some plays, especially
if the Giants can get Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber rolling with the running
game.
MIN Daunte Culpepper vs MIA
Culpepper made us look smart last week after we ranked him as a top QB.
This week, he'll find the Dolphin Defense a good bit tougher than he did
the Bears in week 1. Of special interest will be Miami MLB Zach Thomas
who'll make it a priority to limit Culpepper's dangerous rushes. Thomas
excels at closing on the ball. One note to consider: As a team that has
regularly faced Doug Flutie, the Dolphins are well versed in defending
the scrambling QB. On the flip side, prepared or not, the 255 pound Culpepper
presents quite a problem as he barrels toward the endzone. I've got to
think that once Coach Denny Green shows off his QB Culpepper and appeases
some of his many critics, he'll have to ease up on his rushing load. One
look down the sidelines at a drooling Bubby Brister holding the clipboard
should do the trick for Denny
QB Matchups To Avoid:
These players
will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
JAX Mark Brunell vs BAL
Yes, Brunell threw for 301 yards last week. But that was against the Browns.
This week, he'll face the Ravens, a team that absolutely toyed with Kent
Graham and the Steelers Sunday. The offensive line is still in disarray
as Brunell was sacked four times and the team rushed for just 2.9 yards
per attempt against a weak Browns front. With Fred Taylor and Stacey Mack
likely out, the Ravens will be able to focus on stopping the passing game.
They realize they've got a great chance to jump out to a 2-0 start with
a win here and will likely be bringing the house to keep Brunell in check.
NO Jeff Blake vs SD
Blake struggled last week against the Lions. He'll have a much tougher
task this week when he faces Jr. Seau and the Chargers. San Diego held
a good Oakland team to 176 yards passing last week in Oakland. The Saints
line has to play better, starting with Tackles Willie Roaf and Kyle Turley.
They can't allow 5 sacks again as they did against Detroit. I like Blake
and I think he'll get things going there but it's clear the system is
taking some time to sink in as Blake and the WRs get on the same page.
I think it'll happen eventually but just not this weekend.
CHI Cade McNown vs TB
Good example of a guy who's still a starter in many leagues but can still
make the list of guys I expect to do worse than may be expected. If you've
got another solid QB on your roster, you might give him a good look as
McNown faces a raging Tampa Bay Defense. I expect him to play well, it
just won't be a repeat of last week's great day against the porous Viking
Defense. McNown averaged a very low 7.1 yards per pass last week as they
utilized the quick hitting short passes and WR Screens. The Bucs abundance
of defensive team speed will give this approach some trouble I believe.
Tampa Bay will also bring a fierce pass rush while LB Derrick Brooks will
likely have a bead on McNown should he try to roll up rushing yards again.
He's still a starter in many leagues, just keep your expectations reasonable
against a very tough defense.
RB Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better than expected numbers this week.
DAL Emmitt Smith vs ARZ
After a scare this afternoon, X-Rays were negative on Emmitt's hand
and he's reportedly ready to "carry the load" against Arizona. (Cheatsheets.net
subscribers to the FREE email list were notified this afternoon
of Emmitt's hand injury with a Breaking News message. Click here
for information on the FREE list. Great news for Emmitt owners as
you have to be loving the Cardinal Defense. Simeon Rice finally
signed (after storming off just after agreeing to a contract in
principle) but it's not known how effective he'll be in Sunday's
game. The Giants rolled up 223 rushing yards last week. I like the
Giants, but you have to lay a good bit of that performance at the
feet of the Cardinal Defense. I don't always put much stock in historical
numbers as the personnel changes so much but it's worth noting that
in 20 career games against the Cards, Smith has averaged 91.1 yards
per game and has 24 rushing TD. That's his highest against any team.
DEN Terrell Davis / Mike Anderson vs ATL
Denver's offensive line should be able to overpower the thin defensive
front of Atlanta. I'd expect you'll see the Broncos just tee off and come
straight at them while QB Brian Griese and the physical WRs keep the secondary
honest. Terrell Davis is looking more likely to play as he jogged in practice
Thursday. He stated his experience with injured ankles will be a help
to him as he knows how to handle them, "The ankle to me is something that
I can play with." "Even if it is painful, a lot of times by the time I'm
out there playing I get used to the pain and I can still play on it."
Keep an eye on Davis' status. If he can't go, I'd feel comfortable with
rookie Mike Anderson behind that veteran line. On another note, don't
underestimate the story line of the two high profile RBs returning from
ACL surgery facing off as TD looks to out perform Jamal Anderson. My money's
on Davis.
CAR Tim Biakabutuka vs SF
Biakabutuka ran well last week reeling off 88 yards on 15 carries (5.9
ypc) The San Francisco run defense should offer an enticing target, especially
as they try to handle QB Steve Beuerlein and the Carolina passing game.
Biakabutuka is a back not unlike Robert Smith who seems to struggle and
then when you're about to give up on him, he rips off a long highlight
film run. Look for him to eventually have some of those rushes against
the 49'ers.
MIA Lamar Smith vs MIN
Smith carried the ball a marathon like 27 times Sunday as the coaches
wanted to ease QB Jay Fiedler into his role. Turned out to be a pretty
good idea as Lamar turned those 27 carries into 145 yards averaging 5.4
ypc. With that kind of success, look for the Dolphins to stay with the
program, especially against a Viking Defense that's had a tough time stopping
the run (or pass) J.J. Johnson was not even activated for last week's
game which says a lot for the supposed "battle" between Johnson and Smith
for the starting job. The Viking OL dominated the Seahawks last week and
have a chance to do so against the Vikings.
RB Matchups That Could Go Either Way:
These players have situations that are a little less defined.
CLE Errict Rhett vs CIN
So much for the Travis Prentice hype (ok we got a little excited too...)
Rhett looked like a madman last week running as if his job depended on
it. (Maybe it did) He had outstanding focus and determination dragging
tacklers for the extra yard. Cincinnati had an extra week to prepare with
a bye in week 1, but I like what Rhett might be able to do against this
defense. On the flip side, the Bengal pass defense is so poor that many
teams choose to move the ball through the air as opposed to rushing although
with Couch's troubles, I think they may stick with Rhett.
CIN Corey Dillon vs CLE
Everyone was salivating last week for the Jacksonville RBs lining up against
Cleveland. The Browns actually fared pretty well limiting the Jaguars
to a 3.0 ypc average on 40 rushing attempts. That's a far cry from their
Swiss cheese rush defense of 1999. Granted, that's with no Fred Taylor
and a banged up OL but it was still a little surprising. The Bengals may
be able to move the ball better but I'm not sure it'll be a huge day for
Dillon. On the one hand, you'd think Dillon might be a little rusty with
a limited preseason but on the other side, he may come out blazing. He's
likely a starter in your league, just be aware the Brown defense may not
be the pushover many think.
SEA Ricky Watters vs STL
The Rams, while still amazing on offense, clearly showed they were
more vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball after Monday Night's
game. The Broncos posted 307 passing yards and 150 yards on the
ground against St. Louis so it's obvious they're not invincible.
There's been a great deal of talk about coach Mike Holmgren playing
for the future and getting his young guys more playing time, but
this is way too early in the season for talk like that. Look for
Watters to bail out embattled QB Jon Kitna with short pass receptions.
Rookie Shaun Alexander will most certainly be the RB of the future
there, maybe even this season. It just won't be this game. Note:
Check the status of Kitna's back as he left practice Thursday with
an injury they're now calling back spasms. All bets are off for
Watters if Huard lines up behind center.
RB Matchups To Avoid:
These players will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
JAX Fred Taylor/Stacey Mack/Chris Howard/Shyrone Stith vs BAL
As noted above, the Jags could only muster 119 yards rushing last week
on 40 carries against what was supposed to be an awful Brown Defense.
Cleveland was last against the run in 1999. Baltimore, the team they're
facing this week, was first. And judging how they smothered Jerome Bettis
and the Steelers last week for 30 yards on 18 carries, it looks like they've
picked up where they left off. To make things worse, no back has emerged
yet as the clear starter this week. Taylor had been thought to be out,
but the team hasn't made a decision there. Trainers reportedly were cautiously
optimistic, he might be able to see the field. I'd shy away.
CHI Curtis Enis vs TB
We've been hyping James Allen for the past month and he made us look good
Sunday. For now, the coaching staff is refusing to admit what everyone
sees: Enis is a poor fit for this offense. He's not quick enough to do
the things Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton wants in this quick strike
offense and only managed 4 carries for 11 yards Sunday. James Allen does
a much better job (60 yards on 9 carries Sunday). Problem #2 for Enis
is that the injury to John Allred (shoulder) is forcing Enis to the Fullback
role with Allen at Tailback. And finally, problem #3 is 11 large, angry
and talented men wearing Pewter helmets on the other side of the line.
The Bucs bring a tough defense to the table and that will further limit
Enis' chances. In truth, it also hurts Allen's chances this week as well.
KC Tony Richardson vs TEN
It's bad enough the Chiefs are facing a tough Defense in Tennessee this
week. But the news is worse for Tony Richardson owners as the injury to
FB Donnell Bennett means that Richardson moves back to FB and Mike Cloud
takes over the halfback duties. No matter who runs, they'll likely struggle
against a Titan Defense that held Buffalo to 2.3 yards per carry last
week.
DET James Stewart vs WAS
The Lions appeared out of synch last week and Stewart didn't look like
the rusher we saw in Preseason. QB Charlie Batch is set to start this
week but I still don't see good things in store for Stewart facing a tough
Redskin Defense. The Lions offensive line needs to mesh before Stewart
will excel. Washington did allow some yards to Tim Biakabutuka last week
but he's a different style of runner from the more straight ahead Stewart.
WR Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better than expected numbers this week.
CAR Muhsin Muhammad vs SF
Muhammad will likely take rookie CB Ahmed Plummer to school Sunday. Look
for Muhammad to pair with WR Donald Hayes to create havoc in the secondary
while QB Steve Beuerlein picks the 49ers apart. San Francisco has trouble
mounting much of a pass rush which could spell trouble for their secondary.
The effective rushing of RB Tim Biakabutuka will also be a factor as the
safeties will have to come up in run support.
SF Jerry Rice/Terrell Owens vs CAR
Carolina held their own in pass defense against high powered Washington
last week giving up 234 yards but no scores. Corners Doug Evans and Eric
Davis gave large cushions to protect themselves but you can bet the veteran
Rice will make them pay underneath. He's clearly not the player he once
was but who is? Even with reduced skills, he showed the ability to turn
around and get behind defenders last week. Owens too should be able to
take advantage of the secondary this weekend.
CIN Peter Warrick vs CLE
We sometimes forget these NFL players are humans with regular emotions
and motivations. Peter Warrick hasn't made much of it, but if you think
he's forgotten about the draft day free fall where the Browns passed on
him, I think you'd be missing the boat. Remember Akili Smith last year
pumping his fist at the Cleveland bench after being passed over for Tim
Couch? I think you'll see that motivation times 3 this week. Jacksonville
with a patchwork OL managed to throw 301 yards against the Browns last
week. No telling what may happen with Warrick out there. You know he'll
be pumped up and with a suspect defensive team, he could go wild.
NE Terry Glenn vs NYJ
Compared to the onslaught they saw last week from Tampa Bay, the
Patriots should have all day to deliver the pass against the Jets.
Glenn showed last week he's still capable of making the defenses
pay who slip up on coverage. The emergence of Tony Simmons and Troy
Brown will continue to help take some pressure off Glenn.
WR Matchups That Could Go Either Way:
These players have situations that are a little less defined.
DET Germaine Crowell vs WAS On the downside: He had an awful 2
catch performance against the Saints Sunday dropping balls he should have
caught. If he struggled against the Saints, can you really expect him
to excel against Champ Bailey and Deion Sanders? The good news is that
Charlie Batch looks to be ready to start at QB and you have to like the
Case for Batch swap if you're a Lions fan.
CLE Kevin Johnson vs CIN
On one hand, the Bengals are an enticing target as they've been horrible
defending the pass. On the other hand, Kevin Johnson's hamstring is killing
Fantasy Owners. He reportedly was all ready to go in last week's game
but had trouble when the hamstring "tightened" on him. I'm not hearing
much about it but it's clearly been enough of a worry to be concerned
about. Coupled with Tim Couch's troubles, I'd probably sit KJ another
week to see how he does.
TB Keyshawn Johnson vs CHI
Johnson drew CB Ty Law last week which limited his production and it doesn't
get much better this week as he'll likely be matched with former AFC rival
(Buffalo) Thomas Smith. In Johnson's two games against the Bills last
year, Johnson was 3 for 47 and 4 for 42. Wouldn't surprise me to see Chicago
handle Keyshawn. But then again, he's a talent in the redzone and you
could easily make the case he'll do well.
WR Matchups To Avoid:
These players will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
NYJ Wayne Chrebet vs NE
This one looks like a mismatch as Patriot CB Ty Law should be able to
shut down Chrebet. It'll be against teams like this with premier CBs,
that the loss of Keyshawn Johnson is most evident. Chrebet desperately
needs a complementary WR to take some heat off of him. Hopefully, Dedric
Ward or Laveranues Coles can develop into that guy but for now, it looks
like Chrebet is on his own.
SEA Derrick Mayes vs STL
My friend Ian Allan from Fantasy
Index Magazine tells me Coach Mike Holmgren says he'll make offensive
changes this week at positions other than quarterback. He also admits
that he's building for success in 2001. That means it could be only a
matter of time before Brock Huard, Shaun Alexander and receivers Darrell
Jackson and James Williams are starters. Jackson worked with the first
team in practice Wednesday ahead of Mayes, though it's unclear if Jackson
will play full-time. Even if Mayes does get the start and lots of looks,
I don't like his chances.
TEN Carl Pickens vs KC
Stop me if you've heard this one before: "The Titans are going to throw
the ball downfield more this year. You'd better deal Frank Wycheck before
it's too late". In Sunday's game, QB Steve McNair threw 16 passes between
Eddie George and Frank Wycheck. Here we go again. Carl Pickens was a high
priced decoy and you'll likely see more of the same this week. He will
hopefully be used at the goalline on the fade route but again, between
George and McNair's rushing ability, they have a ton of weapons at the
goalline already.
SD Jeff Graham/Curtis Conway/Mikhael Ricks vs NO
I've got to admit, Ryan Leaf coming back after the headshot from
Upshaw earned a few points in my book. Let's see how he does from
here. This week, I don't see them having much success as they face
a pretty good defense in New Orleans. The SD WRs may struggle to
get off the line which spells trouble for a new QB working on his
timing.
TE Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better than expected numbers this week.
CAR Wesley Walls vs SF With WRs Donald Hayes and Muhsin Muhammad
drawing attention, Walls should have some nice seams to work across the
middle. He's simply too good for the LBs to cover effectively, especially
if the 49ers decide to blitz their linebackers. QB Steve Beuerlein looked
solid last week standing in the pocket and delivering the ball. He should
have an easier time this week against a softer 49er defense.
IND Marcus Pollard vs OAK
Marcus Pollard could well be the answer to the Colts question of who will
become their #2 receiver after Marvin Harrison. Pollard has the speed
to create some mismatches and could do that Sunday against Oakland's LB
William Thomas.
TE Matchups To Avoid:
These players will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
BAL Shannon Sharpe vs JAX
Sharpe debuted last week as a Raven and caught 2 fewer passes than did
#2 TE Ben Coates. (although he did have a few thrown his way) He was a
decoy in that game and it remains to be seen how he'll be used against
Jacksonville. While I certainly don't expect him to go without a reception
again, I think the Ravens may lean more in other directions.
OAK Ricky Dudley vs IND
Linebacker Cornelius Bennett was matched up with KC TE Tony Gonzalez last
week. Bennett had help but the net effect was they were able to shut Gonzalez
down--no small feat. QB Rich Gannon has plenty of other weapons and I'd
expect him to go there as the TE is neutralized again.
