Passing Game Matchups:

Atlanta Passing Game vs 49er Defense
The 49er defense squashed Elvis Grbac owners last week but I’m not quite ready to appoint them QB Killers. They’ve been awful for the year up until then. Over the last four weeks, they rank # 29 in passing yards allowed per game. And they rank # 31 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. QB Chris Chandler is back among us now and the cobwebs seem to be cleared. WR Terrance Mathis is by far the best receiving choice although it’s worth noting that Shawn Jefferson had a great game against this 49er team back in week 1 (doesn’t that seem like a long time ago?) TE Reggie Kelly could be worth a long shot as the 49ers rank # 22 in Fantasy Points allowed to opposing TEs although Kelly has done very little of late.

Minnesota Passing Game vs Panther Defense
I’m running out of adjectives to describe the stellar play of QB Daunte Culpepper. And I think he’ll keep it rolling this week against a Carolina team that ranks # 26 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. Culpepper creates some matchup problems I don’t think the Panthers can solve. Of course, he’ll be throwing to the best WR tandem in the game and that never hurts. Both Randy Moss and Cris Carter are sure starters in any league. Both have a great chance every week of exploding. I’d even consider # 3 WR Matthew Hatchette if you’re in the gambling mood in a very large league. The TEs aren’t much of a factor here and when they are, the receptions are spread around.

Washington Passing Game vs Ram Defense
Jeff George gets another start in place of the injured Brad Johnson after a less than earth shaking performance in week 10 vs Arizona (276 yards, 0 TD, 2 interceptions). Fortunately, he gets to face a St. Louis pass defense that’s still giving up lots of yards even with Bud Carson helping out. They rank # 23 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. And for the year, they rank # 29 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. As much as the Redskins would like to control the game with RB Stephen Davis, you just have to think they’ll be forced to throw in order to keep pace with the Rams. A bye week should help things. WR Albert Connell has been the source of great frustration for many Fantasy GMs but this should be a good week for him. James Thrash is covering the # 2 WR job and he might be a good roll of the dice as well. TE Stephen Alexander doesn’t seem to produce the numbers you’d think he would in this offense, partly because FB Larry Centers catches so many short passes that might have gone to the TE.

Carolina Passing Game vs Viking Defense
I’m looking for a uptick from QB Steve Beuerlein in this one. Call it a hunch as he does have some negatives going his way with injuries to his supporting cast. RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka is iffy, FB William Floyd is out and center Frank Garcia (abrasion to his eye) and offensive lineman Matt Campbell (thigh contusion) also were injured during the New Orleans loss. Coach George Seifert is hopeful both can go Sunday. On the plus side, he’s got two physical WRs in Donald Hayes and Muhsin Muhammad that could give the vulnerable Viking CBs trouble. He should have more time to throw this week against a Viking defense that’s only recorded 7 sacks in the last 4 games. For the year, Minnesota ranks # 26 in passing yards allowed per game. The TE situation is still shaking itself out as Kris Mangum looks to be healthy. Only thing for certain is no one has really stepped in to fill the Wesley Walls void.

-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.

Green Bay Passing Game vs Colts Defense
First off, this assumes Brett Favre can get healthy. If he can, I like the matchup against a Colt team that seems to play just good enough to win. For the year, they rank # 28 in passing yards allowed per game. It should be noted, they’ve played better lately though ranking # 19 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. Indy seems to jump out early and force the other team to play catch-up (which they often come close to doing) Favre’s struggled with his RBs, his WRs and his own health but this could be a game he surprises. He’s kind of a “storybook” guy and this would be a great chapter in the book. We’ll see. RB Ahman Green gets the start but he must get his fumbling under control. WR Antonio Freeman is a likely starter in your league although sort of like Favre, he hasn’t produced like many thought he would. Bill Schroeder covers the #2 WR and he often sees more passes thrown his way than does Freeman. Bubba Franks is coming on at TE and could be a nice play.

Buffalo Passing Game vs Chief Defense
Most folks know I’m not a big Rob Johnson fan but he’s got a good matchup this week against a KC defense that’s been awful defending the pass. Over the last four weeks, they rank # 29 in passing yards allowed per game. For the year, they rank # 21 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB although there’s a chance DE Eric Hicks will be back this week after missing time with a bad knee and that will help the pass rush (he didn’t practice Wednesday though) Johnson will be throwing to one of the game's best WRs in Eric Moulds. Not only is Moulds ultra talented, but he draws by far the most targets on his team. Sharing is great for kids but you like for your Fantasy WRs to be ball hogs. Peerless Price and Jeremy McDaniel pick up the scraps. RB Sammy Morris is hobbled so watch that as he’s a solid receiver as well. TE Jay Reimersma has been a real disappointment lately although the Chiefs are awful against TEs where they rank just # 29 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE.

Miami Passing Game vs Jets Defense
I don’t know if this will be another shootout like they had in their matchup earlier this season but the potential for the Dolphins to score some points is definitely there. The Jets rank # 25 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. QB Jay Fiedler should have plenty of options available as the Dolphins are finally getting WRs healthy. Leslie Shepherd and Oronde Gadsden have been playing well but Tony Martin and OJ McDuffie are now in the mix. He’s probably the least physical of the bunch but I’ve got a pretty good feeling for Shepherd here even though he may not start with Martin healthy. The smashing success of Lamar Smith is carrying this offense so don’t look for too much through the air for Miami.

Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Bear Defense
QB Shaun King looks to continue the roll against a Bear team that doesn’t know which way it’s headed. The Bears are decent defending the pass ranking # 18 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks but for the year, they rank # 30 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. King’s playing with confidence and will likely keep focusing on getting the ball to # 19, Keyshawn Johnson. (something I learned from Sporting News’ Dan Pompei this week about Johnson’s number: As you probably know, Receivers have to wear numbers in the 80’s. As a Jet rookie, all the 80’s were taken so they allowed him to have # 19. It was such a hit with the fans and NFL Properties (cha-ching) that even when a number in the 80’s came available, the league granted Johnson an exception to keep # 19. It is a cool number for a WR, I'll admit) This week, Johnson should continue to have success against a suspect Bear Secondary. Jacquez Green has really dropped off with King’s new found attraction for Keyshawn (wasn’t going near “Johnson” in that sentence) RB Warrick Dunn is a nice threat catching the ball and TE Dave Moore is a steady performer.

Philadelphia Passing Game vs Cardinal Defense
Arizona’s offense is in shambles with injuries all around. The trouble is these guys weren’t very good to start with, now they’re hurt too. What this means is that the Eagles could see lots of offensive action this week if the Cardinals can’t do anything when they have the ball. Arizona ranks # 17 over the last four weeks in passing yards allowed per game. But that number will probably worsen if QB Donovan McNabb keeps throwing the ball 55 times a game as he did Sunday. Philadelphia may be struggling to find a running game but they’re making up for it through the air. Aeneas Williams is a tough cornerback but he can’t cover everyone. Torrance Small and Charles Johnson should see plenty of action. RB Stanley Pritchett catches the ball very well and I keep thinking TE Chad Lewis will break out of his slump.

Indianapolis Passing Game vs Packer Defense
Green Bay’s been pretty tough of late ranking # 11 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks but for the year, they come in at # 25 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Peyton Manning’s not a guy who’ll go wild for you in the stat column but I like this matchup. The Packers have a couple of defensive players either hobbled or out and Manning should have time to throw. That’s dangerous. WR Marvin Harrison draws the majority of passes from Manning and that’s just the way we like it. Jerome Pathon seems to have taken the # 2 job away from Terrence Wilkins. Both Marcus Pollard and Ken Dilger are solid TEs and I’d feel ok starting either in leagues that required one. Of course, RB Edgerrin James is a huge asset catching the ball out of the backfield.

-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.

New England Passing Game vs Bengal Defense
The Bengals are playing harder for new coach Dick LeBeau but their pass defense and secondary is still fairly porous. Over the last four weeks, they rank # 27 in passing yards allowed per game. Although for the year, they rank # 14 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. This week, the health of Drew Bledsoe’s right thumb is on everyone’s mind. He says he’ll play and is calling it “not an issue”. We’ll see. Troy Aikman hobbled onto the field last week and lit this Bengal team up. If Bledsoe’s healthy, he could do even better. Terry Glenn and Troy Brown are the prime guys with Glenn still the main target. He showed an upswing last week after a few worrisome games. He just signed a nice contract so let’s see if he can start earning it. TE Eric Bjornson fell quickly. He was starting a few weeks ago and now he’s unemployed. Rod Rutledge is the new TE and would be a great pickup if he’s available. He caught 3 passes last week including a TD.

Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense
It’s hard to get too excited about Kordell Stewart throwing the ball but this is a decent matchup for him. Jacksonville ranks # 21 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. They rank # 27 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Last week, they let Seattle roll up the yards and Jon Kitna is hardly Peyton Manning. WRs Hines Ward and Courtney Hawkins are the new starting WR tandem and it’ll be interesting to see if benching 1st round underachiever Plaxico Burress makes any difference. Truthfully, you’re reaching if you’re digging down for these guys though. RB Jerome Bettis is the only viable starter on this offense unless you’re in a really big league.

New York Jets Passing Game vs Dolphin Defense
After the Indy loss last week, coach Al Groh was giving votes of confidence to Vinny Testeverde. That’s usually not a good sign. But remember, the last time these teams met, Vinny went wild with 378 yards passing and 5 TDs. Miami recovered nicely from that meltdown and has only allowed 9 TDs in the last 4 games. The Dolphins boast two of the best corners in the game in Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain. Madison can shut anyone down and Wayne Chrebet will have his hands full (although he had a great game in the first matchup) Dedric Ward is the # 2 WR but I like the rookie Laveranues Coles to do some nice things here. Worth a shot maybe if you’re strapped for WRs. Miami has enough faith in their CBs that they often leave them on the island in man coverage which can lead to a big play. TE Anthony Becht is showing some nice flashes. Like Green Bay’s Bubba Franks, it took a little while to get these big guys going.

Kansas City Passing Game vs Bill Defense
I’m guessing QB Elvis Grbac comes out of the chute firing. The Chiefs desperately need this game and it’s clear to see that Grbac winging the football gives this team the best chance of winning. The Bills play a solid pass defense ranking # 13 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks and ranking # 10 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB for the year. TE Tony Gonzalez remains the focal point of the offense although the Bills rank # 4 in the league in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year. WRs Derrick Alexander and Sylvester Morris make a solid tandem and RB Tony Richardson does a nice job receiving out of the backfield although you never know what coach Gunther Cunningham will do with his RBs.

San Diego Passing Game vs Bronco Defense
Remember that the Bengals spanked this Denver team so anything can happen. This time of year, I get a fair amount of email from owners with great rosters who have to decide between 2 QBs like Peyton Manning or Daunte Culpepper. That’s great. Think about poor Mike Riley—he’s got to decide between Jim Harbaugh and Ryan Leaf… Harbaugh said he’s ready to go and is calling his injury a “mild” hernia. He was named the starter early in the week. But with Riley’s rock solid management style, he’s now starting Leaf. I’m not sure it really matters. TE Freddie Jones is the only viable starter on that team but he’s pretty darn good ranking # 2 in my TD / Performance league over the last three weeks. Denver ranks just # 27 in in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year so he could do some damage here. Both QBs will throw to him so it really doesn’t matter who gets the nod. WRs Curtis Conway and Jeff Graham are too inconsistent to get excited about.

Oakland Passing Game vs Saints Defense
Both these teams took a beating last week with the Raiders losing a heartbreaker to Denver and the Saints losing their star RB Ricky Williams to a broken ankle. The Saints have actually been pretty weak on pass defense lately ranking # 24 in passing yards allowed per game. They are better for the year where they rank # 7 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. It’ll be interesting. QB Rich Gannon will be scrambling and improvising as usual. WR Tim Brown is the primary target but James Jett and Andre Rison will see some action as well. He’s up and down but TE Ricky Dudley might have a chance as New Orleans ranks # 18 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year. RB Tyrone Wheatley is looking very questionable for this week with two sprained ankles which will probably force Gannon to throw more.

St. Louis Passing Game vs Redskin Defense
We see it every year it seems yet so many teams fail to heed the wisdom of acquiring a solid backup QB. Both real NFL teams and Fantasy teams need one to be successful. Kurt Warner is getting antsy on the sidelines so you know QB Trent Green wants to shine for another game or two before turning the keys to the car back over. Make no mistake, Green wants to win for the Rams but he knows he’s playing for a contract. Green will be a starter somewhere in 2001 and with every TD, his negotiating power is strengthened. He should fare well even though Washington is a tough defense. Partly due to the loss of RB Marshall Faulk where Green will likely be forced to the air often (as if he needs a reason to pass…) Faulk made a bit of noise about returning for this game and he did practice some Thursday. Even if he does play, it’s hard to envision him as a real factor. The trouble with St. Louis is picking the WRs that will score each week. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are the two best choices but Az-Zahir Hakim and Ricky Proehl are not bad options either. And just for good measure, TE Roland Williams has been effective. Washington’s secondary featuring Deion Sanders, Champ Bailey and Darrell Green are a superb unit but they’ll have their hands full with St. Louis.

Baltimore Passing Game vs Cowboy Defense
Dallas shut down the Bengal passing game last week. Now that’s something to be proud of… This week, they’ll face a rejuvenated Baltimore passing game that’s flying high. QB Trent Dilfer is doing a great 1999 Tony Banks impression as coach Brian Billick breathes life into another troubled career. His primary target is TE Shannon Sharpe and I don’t think that will change for this week. Dallas only ranks # 21 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE so he could blow up. For opposing QBs, Dallas ranks # 13 in Fantasy Points allowed per game for the year. WRs Qadry Ismail and Patrick Johnson are decent plays as well against a secondary that will be without Cheatsheets.net honorary captain / enforcer George Teague who’s gone for the year. That will be a factor as Teague's a leader on the field. Still though, as poor as the Cowboy run defense has been, you’d have to think the Ravens will focus on running the ball with Jamal Lewis.

-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.

Chicago Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense
Let’s put it this way: Tampa Bay held the Packers to 205 yards passing last week. Shane Matthews will start for the Bears. I’ve seen Shane Matthews play and he’s no Brett Favre. He’s not even a Matt Hasselbeck. The Bears are in shambles losing another game to Buffalo and losing another starting QB to injury. Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton is rumored to be headed to Brigham Young and many fans aren’t sad to see him talk about going. In fact, some wish he’d stop talking about and just go already… This could get ugly for Matthews. Although, it should be noted, the Bucs have a tougher reputation than their numbers would support. Over the last four weeks, they rank just # 15 in passing yards allowed per game. They rank # 11 in in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB for year. Solid numbers but not quite as dominating as Warren Sapp would have you believe. Still though, I’d shy away from most all the Bears this week. I’d maybe roll the dice on Marcus Robinson if you needed a WR but it’s sketchy at best. In fact, Matthews seemed to lock in on Eddie Kennison last week instead of Robinson when he was thrust into action. Whether this is a real tendency remains to be seen but I’d be hesitant to bank on any of these guys too heavily this week.

Detroit Passing Game vs Giant Defense
I have never liked Charlie Batch. I think it stems from the fact he looks like Otis Sistrunk but bottom line is I’ve never been comfortable with the guy. I’m getting less comfortable with each week it seems. Sunday, Batch faces a tough Giants defense that has CB Jason Sehorn back. They rank # 10 over the past four weeks in passing yards allowed per game. Sehorn and CB Dave Thomas are both big players who give up very little physically to WRs Johnnie Morton and Herman Moore. Moore seems to be finally waking up. He’ll likely face Thomas who’s not nearly as good as Sehorn. TE David Sloan has a shot as the Giants rank # 26 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year but keep an eye on him as he’s questionable (hamstring / back).

New York Giant Passing Game vs Lion Defense
Detroit may be struggling to throw the ball but they’re doing a pretty good job defending the pass. They rank # 8 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. I like QB Kerry Collins but he’ll need some healthy receivers to do anything. Ike Hilliard is good to go but both Amani Toomer and Joe Jurevicius were talking gibberish on the sidelines Sunday after suffering concussions. Both seem likely to play but you have to wonder how effective they’ll be. The Lions are much more vulnerable against the run so it’s conceivable the Giants could go with heavy doses of RBs Ron Dayne with some Tiki Barber mixed in for this one.

San Francisco Passing Game vs Falcon Defense
I’m still a huge Jeff Garcia backer but I’m not too high on this matchup vs the Falcons. Especially with WR Terrell Owens looking less likely to play as the week progresses. The good news is that Jerry Rice looks to be ok for Sunday. Atlanta ranks # 7 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks so they’re solid. The secondary ranks 2nd in the league with 15 interceptions. They’re not as tough for the year though where they rank # 20 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Atlanta has 10 sacks in the last 4 games so they’re getting decent pressure on the QB. The key as I see it will be developing the running game with Charlie Garner. He’s having a great year running and receiving the ball.

-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.

Cleveland Passing Game vs Titan Defense
The worst thing that could have happened to the Browns was for the Ravens to spoil the Titan’s perfect record at home last week. I’m betting you see a fired up defense this week that could spell doom for QB Doug Pederson and the Browns. Tennessee ranks # 9 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB for the year. Pederson’s been painful to watch and it won’t be any prettier this week. WRs Kevin Johnson and Dennis Northcutt will see most of the work but I’d have a tough time feeling very good about starting either. In fact, you can pretty much just skip the Cleveland team this week.

Cincinnati Passing Game vs Patriot Defense
I doubt you’re still interested in Fantasy Football in week 12 if you have many Bengals on your roster. Here’s all you need to know: Scott Mitchell vs Bill Belichick. Belichick may have his faults, but he’s the master at confusing a QB. It could get ugly. On the flip side, there’s always that shred of hope Mitchell returns to his 1995 form and lights it up. But I kinda doubt it… Outside of Corey Dillon, WR Peter Warrick is the only other possible FF starter on offense. Warrick’s always worth a roll of the dice just for his big play potential.

Arizona Passing Game vs Eagle Defense
This is almost unfair. The Cardinals are already one of the worst teams in the league. Now they have to deal with: Center Mike Gruttadauria is done for the year. WRs David Boston’s hamstring is worse than it was last week (when it was bad) and Frank Sanders has a serious knee bruise. RB Michael Pittman’s ribs are killing him and Thomas Jones has walking pneumonia. Good grief. If someone goes to jail and has their wife leave them, it’ll be a Country Western song… Unless you’re desperate, I’d avoid all the Cardinals this week against just about any team. Much less the Eagles who are playing very good defense right now.

Jacksonville Passing Game vs Steeler Defense
The above three offenses (Cleveland, Cincinnati and Arizona) make the “Slam Dunk” list because the offenses are awful. The Jags are struggling with injuries still but they land here because the Steelers are playing excellent defense. Pittsburgh ranks # 4 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks and rank # 3 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB for the year. Remember, it was against the Steelers when QB Mark Brunell was benched for Jamie Martin back in week 5. Brunell will throw to WR Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell but I’m not looking for a lot from either guy. The game is in Pittsburgh at night and that’s a long ways from Jacksonville both in miles and more importantly, temperature. TE Kyle Brady has calmed down since Jimmy Smith is back healthy although he’s a decent play against a tough defense.

Dallas Passing Game vs Raven Defense
Troy Aikman will find the going tougher this week against a fired up Raven team than he did against the Bengals last week. Baltimore ranks # 2 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Over the last four games, they rate # 3 in passing yards allowed per game. Aikman will look for James McNight and Jason Tucker (man that sounds weird) but don’t expect the same success you saw last week from these guys. In case you were wondering, Baltimore is also ranked # 3 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year so Jackie Harris and David LaFluer don’t look good either.

Tennessee Passing Game vs Brown Defense
One of the cornerstone principles of Fantasy Football is you have to understand that the numbers rule. It’s easy to look at the Browns and dismiss them as awful but in certain areas, such as pass defense, they’re very good in the numbers department. For the year, Cleveland ranks # 5 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Over the last four games, they rank # 2 in passing yards allowed per game. The reasons for doing so are different but they’re putting up pass defense numbers very similar to what the Ravens are posting. In Cleveland’s case, teams are choosing to run the ball against their vulnerable rush defense. Why risk a pass when the defense is begging to be run over? QB Steve McNair will be looking to WRs Derrick Mason and Chris Sanders. Carl Pickens and Yancey Thigpen could play but you’ve been burned enough by these guys already. TE Frank Wycheck is still the primary receiver although McNair is spreading the ball around a little more.

Denver Passing Game vs Charger Defense
After a few weeks of flailing about, the Chargers are back at the top of the defensive rankings. Over the last four weeks, they rank # 1 in passing yards allowed per game where they faced Miami, Seattle and Oakland. Granted, that’s not like shutting down St. Louis but holding those teams to an average of 128 yards passing per game is strong. They’ll be facing new QB Gus Frerotte who’ll likely take a bit to get settled. WRs Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith are both solid. Denver’s still using the 3 TE set with Desmond Clark, Dwayne Carswell and Byron Chamberlain all producing. I like all the Broncos and I can see them starting in many leagues, I’m just not too happy about the matchup this week.

Rushing Game Matchups:

Miami’s Lamar Smith vs Jets Defense
You’ll have to look awfully hard to find a hotter RB than Lamar Smith. In their week 8 matchup, he ran for 2 TDs and 155 yards. At the time, it seemed like a fluke but Smith has maintained almost that pace since then. Jay Fiedler and the passing game provide just enough threat to keep the defenses semi honest and Smith does the rest. Over the last four weeks, the Jets rank # 26 in rushing yards allowed per game.

New York Giant’s Ron Dayne / Tiki Barber vs Lion Defense
As you know by now, the Giants running game is governed by how close they keep the game. Coach Jim Fassell abandons the ground game (especially Ron Dayne’s role) when the Giants start to trail. Against a less than explosive Lions team, the Giants ought to be able to keep this very close if not lead most of the way. Detroit’s been weak defending the run over the last four weeks where they rank # 25 in rushing yards allowed per game.

Indianapolis’ Edgerrin James vs Packer Defense
Green Bay’s allowing 135 yards rushing per game over the last four week which ranks them # 22. James should continue to roll this week against a Packer Defense that’s missing LB Brian Williams who’s out with a knee injury. DE Vonnie Holiday may be limited but he looks like he’ll play and that’s some concern but I still look for James to romp.

Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis vs Cowboy Defense
The Cowboys gave up their 200 yard rushing days to quick slasher RBs Charlie Garner and Duce Staley but I’m guessing power running Jamal Lewis (who’s almost as quick as those guys) will be a great play against Dallas. For the season, Dallas ranks # 28 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. Look for him to catch the ball out of the backfield as well.

-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense

San Diego’s Terrell Fletcher / Jermaine Fazande vs Bronco Defense
Over the last four week, Denver ranks # 31 in rushing yards allowed per game. This game smells a lot like the Denver / Bengal game to me. Winless team comes into town with a big power back and nothing to lose. We all remember Corey Dillon’s record setting day and many remember Jermaine Fazande’s big day rushing in the last game of 1999 against the Broncos. Terrell Fletcher is working his way into the mix and that’s really muddying the waters. Keep an eye on this one and if it looks like one of these guys will garner the bulk of the carries, he could be worth a flyer.

Philadelphia’s Stanley Pritchett / Darnell Autry vs Cardinal Defense
The Arizona defense remains pretty weak against the rush. They rank # 29 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. For the year, they rank # 31 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. The trick is determining which Eagle RB will get the carries. I like Pritchett because he’s bigger and can bull doze his way through the Cards. I’ve been down on Autry as I believe you’re supposed to have the acting career after the football career, not the other way around…

Arizona’s Michael Pittman vs Eagle Defense
Watch this one closely as Pittman is struggling to get healthy with bruised ribs. If he can go, I like the matchup this week. Philadelphia ranks # 30 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. They’re stronger over the year where they rank # 18 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. Thomas Jones is in worse shape with pneumonia so Pittman has incentive to get out there.

Buffalo’s Sammy Morris / Shawn Bryson vs Chief Defense
Morris battling a bad ankle and looks to be a game time decision. Bryson is plenty capable if he can’t go. The Chiefs are an attractive matchup as they rank # 28 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. They rank # 27 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB for the year. Watch this one closely to see if the Bills offer hints to who’ll they’ll go with.

Green Bay’s Ahman Green vs Colt Defense
With Dorsey Levens out again, Green will be asked to carry the load The Colts are vulnerable to the rush ranking # 24 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. If Brett Favre can play, that’ll be a nice boost for Green as the defense won’t be able to key on stopping the ground game.

Cincinnati’s Corey Dillon vs Patriot Defense
How much would you rely on Scot Mitchell if you were Dick LeBeau? Me neither. Whether it’s Akili Smith or Scott Mitchell under center, it’s still the Corey Dillon Show. New England has shown itself to vulnerable against the rush ranking # 23 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. Dillon knows he needs to carry the team and he’ll do his best. His success will depend on how effect Mitchell can be in drawing the defense’s attention toward the passing game.

-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way

San Francisco’s Charlie Garner vs Falcon Defense
Charlie Garner continues his great season against a Falcon team that’s playing better rush defense than it had been. For the year, Atlanta ranks # 30 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB but over the last four weeks, they rate # 19 in rushing yards allowed per game. If they’re without WR Terrell Owens again, Garner will be asked to carry a little more of the load, something he’s gladly done all year.

Pittsburgh’s Jerome Bettis vs Jaguar Defense
With the WR shuffling going on in Pittsburgh, I think Bettis is really the only Steeler worthy of starting in most leagues. He’s a solid performer though that should have another good day grinding the ball out. Jacksonville ranks # 18 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game. For the year, they rank # 20 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. It’ll be power football as the Steeler just line up and try to run over the Jaguars.

New England’s J.R. Redmond / Kevin Faulk vs Bengal Defense
The Bengals are tough to predict. For the last four weeks, they rank # 17 in rushing yards allowed per game and for the year they come in at # 14 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. But they absolutely shut down RB Emmitt Smith last week. I look for Redmond and Faulk to have moderate success against this improving unit. Redmond is questionable with ribs so keep an eye on this one.

Chicago’s James Allen vs Buccaneer Defense
As with the pass defense, Tampa Bay is good but not quite as dominant as their reputation. For the last four weeks, they rank # 16 in rushing yards allowed per game allowing 106 per game. For the year, they rate # 9 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RBs so it’s not like they’re invincible. With Shane Matthews behind center and scaring no one though, it could be a long day.

Washington’s Stephen Davis vs Ram Defense
As is so often the case, the Redskins could be forced to abandon their running game if the Rams jump out early. Washington would dearly love to establish Stephen Davis on the ground but they may not be able to if they’re forced to play catchup. The Rams rate # 15 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game. For the year, they check in at # 23 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. Even with Bud Carson helping coach the defense, they can be run upon.

Atlanta’s Jamal Anderson vs 49er Defense
Jamal Anderson continues to make solid improvement and he seems close to his 1998 form to me. He’ll face a 49er Defense that can definitely be run on. Over the last four weeks, they rate # 14 in rushing yards allowed per game but for the year, they rank # 29 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. Not unlike the situation with Washington, the running back’s success largely hinges on the ability of the defense to hang tough. Anderson can be taken out of the game if the Falcons can’t hold Jeff Garcia and company down in the passing game.

Minnesota’s Robert Smith vs Panther Defense
I’ve said for years I’d love to see Robert Smith play a full season and now we’re seeing that could look like. He’s having a great year and I think he’ll continue to have success against Carolina. They’ve been pretty strong lately against the rush ranking # 11 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks but for the year, they rank # 24 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. If the Vikings can control Carolina’s Steve Beuerlein (no small feat), it’ll help Smith’s chances immensely

-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense

Jacksonville’s Fred Taylor vs Steeler Defense
Fred Taylor is beginning to work his way out most Fantasy GM’s dog house as he continues to be a bright spot on a team without many bright spots. He’s been running hard but this will be a real gut check for him as he squares off against a very tough Steeler rush defense that’s only allowed 2 TDs over the last four games. Pittsburgh ranks # 3 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB and Taylor will have his hands full.

Carolina’s Tshimanga Biakubutuka vs Viking Defense
Biakabutuka remains very questionable with a bad toe and the Panthers don’t sound very optimistic about him playing Sunday. Keep an eye on it as he was able to play through the pain last week. Although it seems to be worse this week than last. If he can’t go, you’ll see undrafted rookie FB Brad Hoover get the start. Don’t ask me how that happens. Minnesota is decent against the run ranking # 12 over the last four games in rushing yards allowed per game and # 17 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.

Tampa Bay’s Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Bear Defense
Most people including myself thought new offensive coordinator Les Steckel would involve Mike Alstott more in Frank Wycheck type roles. Hasn’t happened yet but it’ll be interesting to see if they start getting the big guy the balls in creative ways. I’m sure his fumbling problems are still a huge concern but of course that’s not something a guy like Tony Dungy talks very publicly about. The Bears are decent against the run ranking # 9 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game but for the year, they check in at # 21 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.

Denver’s Terrell Davis vs Charger Defense
Davis scared everyone this week when it was reported he had a problem with his calf. He says it’s overblown and was calling it just “tightness” below the knee. He’ll need to be as healthy as possible this week as the Chargers have been playing strong rush defense of late ranking # 2 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. For the year, they’re still ranked # 15 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB reflecting some of their earlier struggles. The Broncos desperately need Davis to shoulder the load with Brian Griese out and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds. It’s a tough matchup, but I bet he does well.

St. Louis’ Justin Watson vs Redskin Defense
The good news for Watson is that he doesn’t have to worry about Trung Canidate. The bad news is Robert Holcomb saw a good bit of work at tailback this week and Marshall Faulk is even making noise about playing Monday. Faulk did practice some Thursday but coach Mike Martz still remains pessimistic about him seeing much action this week. Keep an eye on it as I’m sure it’ll be a top story but right now, he doesn’t look to be a big factor. The Redskin rush defense is solid ranking # 8 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game and # 6 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.

-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense

Cleveland’s Travis Prentice / Jamel White vs Titan Defense
The Browns catch Tennessee at an awful time as the Titans are coming off a frustrating loss at home to Baltimore and will likely be looking to vent some frustrations this week. Cleveland looks to bear the brunt of that situation. Prentice and White have been unexceptional lately and I don’t see them improving against a tough Titan Defense. Over the last four weeks, Tennessee ranks # 7 in rushing yards allowed per game. They also rank # 7 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. These guys may do in a pinch on other weeks but I don’t see it this Sunday.

Detroit’s James Stewart vs Giant Defense
Stewart is still a starter in many leagues but I don’t like his matchup here. (Although you can’t discount the time he ran wild on Tampa Bay with an awful matchup too) The Giants rank # 1 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. For the last four weeks, they rank # 6 in rushing yards allowed per game. That’s strong. Having a healthy Jason Sehorn back will help the entire defense as it allows more safety help to commit to the run.

Oakland’s Napoleon Kaufman vs Saints Defense
Keep an eye on it, but at this point Tyrone Wheatley is looking very questionable with not one but two bad ankle sprains. His most recent sprain is thought to be worse than the first sprain on the other ankle that was limiting him already. Kaufman struggles a bit as the sole RB and Saints are RB Killers. For the year, they rank # 4 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB and over the last four games, they check in at # 5 in rushing yards allowed per game. One ray of hope for Oakland is that DT Norman Hand is questionable with bone chips in his ankle although they believe he can play even though he hasn’t practiced this week.

Kansas City’s RB committee vs Bills Defense
By now you probably know better than to risk starting any RB wearing a Chief uniform. This week’s a good week to follow that rule as the Bills are playing excellent rush defense. They rank # 4 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game and the rate # 5 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. I shy away from Chief RBs against any team but especially a defense this tough. If you don’t have any choice, Kimble Anders will get the “start” but expect to see plenty of Tony Richardson and Frank Moreau. Richardson in particular does a nice job receiving the ball.

Dallas’ Emmitt Smith vs Raven Defense
Let’s put it this way: Smith was shut down by Cincinnati last week. And the Ravens are a just a tad bit better than the Bengals when it comes to run defense. If anyone can bounce back, it’s Smith but last Sunday was very worrisome. The Ravens are flying high after a huge road win at Tennessee. He’s still a solid RB but Smith will have his hands more than full Sunday. The Ravens rank # 3 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks and for the year they rate # 2 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.

New York Jets’ Curtis Martin vs Dolphin Defense
I don’t see a repeat of the week 8 meltdown from Miami on defense. Martin will have a tough day ahead of him against the Dolphin defense that ranks # 10 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game. Over the season, they rank # 8 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. The Dolphins were hopeful LB Zach Thomas could return but that’s not looking too likely now. It’ll be even tougher for Martin if he does.

New Orleans Jerald Moore / Chad Morton vs Raider Defense
New Orleans catches a tough break as the new RBs are forced to make their first start facing the # 1 rush defense in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. For the year, they’re not quite as tough ranking # 12 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. It’s tough to call right now how the carries will be distributed as the Saints are understandably being tight lipped. I expect Moore to carry most of the load to begin with. He’s the more physical back and much more like Williams than is Morton who falls closer to the scat back / 3rd down guy mold. I can envision something similar to the rotation New England is using with J.R. Redmond and Kevin Faulk. For FF purposes, you’d of course like to see one guy take over but I don’t see that now. The other wild card is newly signed Terry Allen who sounds excited about football again. We’ll see how quickly he can get comfortable.

Joe Bryant is the owner of www.cheatsheets.net. More of his work can be found there along with all the information and tools you’ll need to Dominate Your Draft.