Week 10. Crunch time. In most fantasy seasons, this is the week you
can look back upon and say “that’s when I made the move” or “that was
the win that put me over the edge”. Most leagues have a 14 game regular
season so we’re heading down the stretch. To that end, I’ve tried my
best to ramp it up a notch and make these Matchup capsules a little
more detailed this week. Along with the Quick News sent yesterday, it’s
all part of that “Delivering More Than Promised” mentality.
New Feature -- On
Target! One of my favorite views for stats is to see how many times
a player is the target of an intended pass. It’s a much more telling
number than receptions when predicting future performance as it shows
the true QB distribution tendencies. Here’s a look at the WRs for the
first half of the 2000 season that I think you’ll find interesting.
Lemme know what you think.
Passing Game Matchups:
Here's how
I see the matchups this week. Please note, see the cheatsheet
for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. Just because
one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily
mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. The matchup info is meant
to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.
Note: I’ve used the player stats sorted by performance over the last three
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by
Mike Hall’s excellent FLM League Management
Software. for more info.
Here we go:
-LOCKS: These
games heavily favor the offense.
New Orleans Passing Game vs 49er Defense
Even with the offensive fireworks,
the 49ers continue to lose games for one simple reason: They can’t stop
anyone. QB Jeff Blake and crew gets to tee off on a defense that’s allowed
an average of 286 passing yards per game over the last four weeks which
is dead last. They make everyone look good and this week should be no
different. Blake’s been up and down but this should be a week he rolls.
WR Joe Horn remains his best WR as Keith Poole is battling a neck stinger.
Keep an eye on Horn as he suffered a sprained knee in Sunday’s game but
was able to return. Both he and Poole practiced this week and should be
good to go. RB Ricky Williams may be his best receiver though and should
continue to roll up great numbers. San Francisco ranks # 31 in Fantasy
Points allowed by opposing QBs.
San Diego Passing Game vs Seahawk Defense
This week, San Diego faces a Seattle team that’s in freefall. The defense
ranks # 30 in passing yards allowed per game over the past four weeks
giving up 278 yards per game. As odd as it may seem, QB Jim Harbaugh has
been a top 10 Fantasy QB over the past couple of weeks throwing for 4
TDs and 509 yards in two games. The tricky part is to figure out who’ll
catch the passes. In week 7, WRs Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway had great
games while TE Freddie Jones was a non factor. Then in week 9 (Chargers
had a bye in week 8), it was back to the TE as Jones hauled in 2 TDs and
111 yards on 10 receptions. I think you’ll continue to see the distribution
lean towards what we saw last week with Freddie Jones as the primary target.
On a side note, you have to love Jim Harbaugh refusing to answer questions
from the reporter wearing a San Francisco sweatshirt. Not only did he
not answer the questions, he got on him for having the gall to “come out
to the Charger complex wearing the enemy’s jersey”.
Oakland Passing Game vs Chief Defense Over the last three weeks, Kansas City has allowed 267 passing yards
per game. They’re suffering a little bit from the “Rams Syndrome” where
their explosive offense forces team to play catch-up and throw the ball.
QB Rich Gannon remains along with Jeff Garcia one of the nicer “surprises”
of the 2000 season. The Raider Offense fell asleep last Sunday night vs
San Diego but I’m betting they get back to their normal self against the
Chiefs. No offense to Charger fans, but it’s easy to look past San Diego
on the schedule. In their week 7 matchup, Gannon threw for 244 yards and
2 TDs. Tim Brown was the only WR to put up any numbers to speak of in
that game (5 receptions for 89 yards but no TD) and it’s worth noting
that both RBs Tyrone Wheatley and Napoleon Kaufman caught TD passes in
the game. James Jett and Andre Rison make nice complementary WRs on a
real NFL team but probably aren’t starters in most Fantasy leagues. TE
Ricky Dudley remains one of the most frustrating players around. If you’ve
hung with him this long, he’s probably worth starting just on the chance
he breaks out but he’s been a huge disappointment.
Green Bay Passing Game vs Minnesota Defense The Minnesota defense made Tampa Bay’s Shaun King look great Sunday.
I’m betting they’ll have a similar effect on Brett Favre this week. The
Vikings pass defense ranks # 27 in passing yards allowed per game over
the last four weeks. They rank # 26 in Fantasy Points allowed to opposing
QBs this year. QB Brett Favre looked bad against Miami last week failing
to break the 200 yard passing barrier or score a TD. Minnesota brings
a different quality defense than what Favre saw last week though and he’ll
likely have more success. WR Bill Schroeder almost seems like the better
Fantasy choice than supposed #1 WR Antonio Freeman who managed a whopping
2 receptions for 10 yards Sunday. Green Bay’s still using two TEs with
Bubba Franks and Tyrone Davis. Both catch enough to diminish the value
of the other. RB Dorsey Levens catches the ball well but his health remains
a huge concern.
Indianapolis Passing Game vs Bear Defense The Bears trail only San Francisco when it comes to giving up Fantasy
Points to opposing QBs. You know I love Daunte Culpepper, but Peyton Manning
will be the best QB they’ve faced yet. Chicago may be energized with Jim
Miller starting at QB but Manning should have his way with the defense.
In fact, Miller may actually boost Manning’s numbers as he’ll hopefully
move the offense better than the injured Cade McNown had. WR Marvin Harrison
remains the clear go to guy. Jerome Pathon and Terrence Wilkins are distant
alternatives. Of course Edgerrin James is a deadly threat out of the backfield.
The TEs are tough to call as both Ken Dilger and Marcus Pollard are effective.
Pollard had a big game last week but he’s tough to depend on.
Kansas City Passing Game vs Raider Defense These are two very good football teams that give up way too many
yards through the air. Kansas City is averaging 267 passing yards per
game allowed over the past four weeks while the Raiders are yielding 242
yards per game over that span. Elvis Grbac is one of the nicer stories
of 2000 and he ought to continue his roll in this one. Grbac threw for
288 yards and 2 TDs in their week 7 matchup. Derrick Alexander is the
#1 WR and provides great stability and instruction. Rookie Sylvester Morris
missed last week’s game and he’s up in the air for this week. Of course,
the big gun for KC is TE Tony Gonzalez who had 7 receptions for 100 yards
and a TD in their last meeting.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
Carolina Passing Game vs Ram Defense Wesley Walls or no Wesley Walls, the Rams still are giving up 264
passing yards per game over the last four weeks. That lands them squarely
in the #28 slot. Again, much of this number is driven by the fact St.
Louis forces team to throw the ball but that’s not really important. All
that’s important is that teams do throw the ball on the Rams. And effectively.
QB Steve Beuerlein will sorely miss Wesley Walls. But he’ll have to find
someone to take up the slack. Their big physical WRs Donald Hayes and
Muhsin Muhammad were pushed around last week by the Falcon corners and
can’t let that happen again. Look for RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka to play
an even bigger role catching the ball with Walls out. His knee’s looking
better and he should be able to go. The TE situation is still muddy. Kris
Mangum’s shoulder is still a big problem. And Brian Kinchen is more valuable
as the long snapper. Rookie Casey Crawford could get the start. Pay attention
because St. Louis gives up more fantasy points to the TE than all but
one other team in the league.
Buffalo Passing Game vs Patriot Defense Defense Patriot LB Andy Katzenmoyer was placed on Injured Reserve
this week and that’s got to hurt. Even with him, the Patriots had been
pretty weak in defending the pass. Over the last four weeks, they ranked
# 24 in passing yards allowed per game. They’re # 20 in points allowed
to opposing QBs. Doug Flutie comes into this game fighting for the #1
job. Coach Wade Phillips and even Flutie have been saying it’s Rob Johnson’s
job yada yada but I feel another strong game from Flutie could earn him
the right to keep starting. He’s impossible to sack while Johnson takes
enough sacks in one game to make an NFL Films highlight reel. For WRs,
it’s all Eric Moulds. He grabs a huge percentage of the passes which is
the perfect scenario for Fantasy GMs. Jeremy McDaniel has edged ahead
of Peerless Price, but neither are starter material in most leagues. TE
Jay Reimersma made his return last week and that’s huge news for both
Reimersma and Flutie owners.
Miami Passing Game vs Lion Defense Detroit enters this game with a defense that’s allowing 233 passing
yards per game over the last four weeks. That earns them a # 23 ranking.
When ranked by number of points they allow opposing QBs, they rank # 24.
QB Jay Fiedler has been inconsistent making great plays followed by awful
throws. He’ll have to be ready as cornerback Bryant Westbrook’s been on
a tear of late. WRs Oronde Gadsden and Leslie Shepherd catch most all
of the passes. RB Lamar Smith doesn’t catch many balls and the TEs are
a non factor. Keep an eye on Fiedler’s ribs as they were giving him a
lot of trouble before the game last week.
Chicago Passing Game vs Colt Defense Indianapolis continues their version of “St. Louis Lite” – Great
QB / WR / RB with a porous defense. Actually, that defense is a help as
it keeps the passing game alive instead of allowing the offense to go
into its preferred ground game to control the clock. Chicago’s defense
ranks # 30 in Fantasy Points allowed to opposing QBs this season while
Indianapolis ranks # 28. In other words, expect a shootout. QB Jim Miller
takes over the reins and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds.
He’s reportedly looked excellent in practice and the team seems energized
with his presence. Cade McNown is regarded by many as the “golden boy”
who received preferential treatment from the staff. Miller, is the blue
collar guy and seems to have the players behind him. WR Marcus Robinson
is of course the prime target. Remember he excelled in 1999 no matter
who threw the ball to him. Look for Miller to lean on him. WRs Dez White,
Macey Brooks and Eddie Kennison should all see action but picking any
WR past Robinson is tough. Kaseem Sinceno is the TE who replaced John
Allred and he’s still learning the system.
New England Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense The Bills pass defense has looked a little shaky lately giving up
an average of 231 passing yards per game over the last four weeks. That
ranks # 22. QB Drew Bledsoe has had a week to prepare for the Bills and
it’s a game both teams desperately need to win. He’s played pretty well
the last couple of games but his numbers are a little inflated with 2
rushing TDs that you certainly can’t depend on. WR Terry Glenn was red
hot early but has cooled a bit. Troy Brown and Tony Simmons have been
cutting into Glenn’s production. For what it’s worth, there’s been talk
of moving TE Eric Bjornson to WR which couldn’t hurt his numbers any.
RBs J.R. Redmond and Kevin Faulk are both dangerous receivers.
Seattle Passing Game vs Charger Defense I’m not overly excited about QB Jon Kitna and crew, but the Charger
defense has to rate as a good matchup, even after their improved performance
against the Raiders last week. San Diego ranks # 27 in Fantasy Points
allowed to QBs this year. Over the last four weeks, they’re averaging
231 passing yards per game allowed which ranks them # 21. Jon Kitna gets
the start as Brock Huard is still feeling the adverse affects of a concussion
he suffered a couple of weeks ago. It concerns me that a player this young
is taking so long to be cleared to play. Although he's reportedly feeling
better today and may be able to go next week. The troubles don’t end there
as RB Ricky Watters is listed as Questionable with a bad toe. He’s a huge
help for the passing game not only in catching the ball but in keeping
the defense honest against the run. WR Darrell Jackson is a promising
player but it appears he’ll yield to Derrick Mayes who’ll get the start
along with Sean Dawkins. Mayes is reportedly healthy for the first time
in a long while. If you’re going to play them, this would probably be
the week. TE Christian Fauria caught a TD last week so maybe he’s waking
up. Like I said, I don’t expect too much out of these guys, but they do
have a solid matchup.
Minnesota Passing Game vs Packer Defense Over the past four weeks, Green Bay’s defense has allowed 218 passing
yards per game. That’s not awful, but still puts them well below average
at # 20. They rank # 22 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB for
the year. Daunte Culpepper is coming off one of his worst games against
a tough Tampa Defense yet he still put up FF numbers worthy of a starter.
This week, he’ll have a much easier go of it facing Green Bay. Just like
most thought, Cris Carter seems to be catching more passes than Randy
Moss while Moss is more the home run threat. They both have 3 TDs over
the last three games so you can’t deny either guy. Start both without
worry. RB Robert Smith will get back on track after being held down by
the Bucs which is nothing to be ashamed of. Minnesota has yet to find
a consistent TE.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.
Detroit Passing Game vs Miami Defense
It’s hard to add up. Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain are thought to be
two of the better corners in the league. Yet they rank #26 in passing
yards per game over the last four weeks. If you look a little closer,
you’ll see they rank #9 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB for
the year. QB Charlie Batch has played about like we thought he would –
not very good. He’s up and down showing just enough flashes to get folks
excited. Only to be disappointed later. His WRs, once thought to be a
strength of depth, are now looking very thin. Germane Crowell is gone.
And Herman Moore is nursing a sore sprained foot. It looks like Johnnie
Morton is the only healthy guy he has unless you get excited about Brian
Stablein and Larry Foster. RB James Stewart is a fine runner and he’s
starting to become more involved as a pass receiver. TE Davis Sloan might
be a starter in a 31 team league. But just barely.
St. Louis Passing Game vs Panther Defense Over the last four weeks, Carolina has been pretty effective defending
the pass. They’ve allowed 199 yards passing per game over that stretch
which is # 12. They’ve been even stronger in the Fantasy Points allowed
to the opposing QB where they rank # 4 for the year. This is St. Louis
though. QB Trent Green steps in with a week under his belt. He was clearly
more comfortable in the 2nd half of Sunday’s game and Mike Martz admitted
he may have been a little too conservative with Green early even though
he made pregame statements that he wouldn’t be. I look for continued production
from him. For WRs, Isaac Bruce is the #1 guy. Green hooked up with him
for 8 receptions last week. After Bruce, it looks like Torry Holt and
Az-Zahir Hakim will catch the balance. Both those guys are decent starters
if you’re not loaded with WRs. Ricky Proehl is up and down. Sometimes
a # 3 WR for a team like St. Louis can equal the #1 WRs numbers from a
poor team. RB Marshall Faulk continues to put on a clinic with both his
rushing and receiving skills. Trent Green didn’t complete a pass to his
TE Sunday.
Baltimore Passing Game vs Bengal Defense Where’d the Bengals come from? I’ll hand it to new coach Dick LeBeau,
he’s got these guys playing hard. Over the past three games, their defense
has allowed 218 passing yards per game for a ranking of # 19. The big
difference is in the Bengal rush defense. They now rank # 19 in rushing
yards allowed over the previous 4 weeks. Back in week 6, they were ranked
# 30 in rushing yards allowed over the previous 4 games. Nice work, coach.
This fired up defense faces a Baltimore team that’s absolutely dying to
score a TD. QB Trent Dilfer gets the start again. True to coach Brian
Billick’s prediction, Dilfer played with a “frenetic” pace and did give
the team a spark at times. At times he looked pretty bad too. Let’s see
if another week of practice with the 1st team helps. Qadry Ismail will
be the prime target and Patrick Johnson replaces the injured Travis Taylor.
In a case of what goes around, comes around, Taylor’s broken collarbone
was the exact injury that knocked Johnson out earlier and allowed Taylor
to start. The guy I keep thinking will explode is TE Shannon Sharpe. He’s
clearly the best receiver on the team and you know this drought has to
be killing him. If you saw him on ESPN at the Halloween party doing the
Austin Powers thing (scariest costume I saw this year) you heard him say
he was hoping no one recognized him as a Raven Offensive player. He predicted
it would be an “open the floodgates” type of thing once the TDs started
coming.
Denver Passing Game vs Jets Defense The Jets are playing decent defense of late allowing an average of
206 passing yards per game over the last four weeks which nets them a
ranking of # 14. They rank # 11 in Fantasy Points Allowed to the QB for
the year. After a bye week, Denver comes into this game hoping for a fresh
start after chewing on the humiliating loss to Cincinnati for two weeks.
Much has been made of Brian Greise’s drinking and driving troubles but
I doubt that’ll affect his game play Sunday. He ranks as the # 2 QB in
the league over the last three weeks in Fantasy Points per Game. In those
two games, he’s thrown for an amazing 701 yards and 5 TDs. Start him.
As usual, both Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey are solid plays. The trouble
comes in picking a TE as Denver has not one, not two, but three that contribute.
Desmond Clark, Dwayne Carswell and Byron Chamberlain all see action. From
a Fantasy Football perspective, Denver would be much better off with just
one TE catching all the TE passes but I’ve noticed the real NFL guys pay
very little attention to our desires. The big news for this game will
be the comeback of Terrell Davis. Few players get to make two comebacks
in one season but Davis will give it a go.
New York Jets Passing Game vs Denver Defense
Vinny Testeverde and the Jets are one of the toughest teams to predict.
They just seem to throw a curve more often than not, either surpassing
or falling short of expectations. With that said, they face a perplexing
Denver defense that ranks # 3 in passing yards allowed over the last 4
weeks. Yet they only rank # 15 in Fantasy Points Allowed by the Opposing
QB for the year. Vinny Testeverde comes off a solid outing last week where
he completed 28 of 38 passes for 293 yards and 2 TDs. He seems to finally
be getting comfortable. His WR tandem of Wayne Chrebet and Laveranues
Coles is very solid. Coles had a great game last week catching 5 passes
for 131 yards. Chrebet’s a sure starter and I’d probably roll the dice
on Coles as well. Jermaine Wiggins and Fred Baxter have both scored from
the TE position in recent weeks but you can’t count on them. I have learned
this about WRs – Don’t trust anything Keyshawn Johnson says about fellow
WRs. When Jeff Graham went San Diego, Keyshawn told my friend Steve Cohen
who covered the Jets for WFAN in NYC that Graham would be a top 10 WR
in the AFC. And then this year all we heard from Johnson was how Dedric
Ward was the #1 WR in New York. Just so you know…
Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Falcon Defense Atlanta ranks # 16 in passing yards allowed per game over the last
four weeks yet for the year, they rank # 7 in Fantasy Points allowed to
QBs. Let’s see if QB Shaun King can continue the roll. Week 9 was a pivotal
week for this offense as following a four hour talk to Keyshawn Johnson
at King’s house, the Tampa QB seemed recharged. Specifically, he seemed
recharged in getting the ball to Johnson. That’s a shocker Johnson would
want the ball. I worked the sidelines of a Jets game for WFAN radio and
my buddy Steve Cohen a couple of years ago and have a different view of
Keyshawn than many do. Yes, he wants the ball. But I think he wants it
not so much for personal glory as he wants it because he knows how good
he is and truly believes the team has its best chance to win when they
go to him. Either way, it seems pretty obvious King will continue with
what worked last week. He’s beginning to force the ball to Johnson even
in double coverage. Jacquez Green could benefit from the extra attention
paid to Keyshawn but be careful to watch how the ball is spread around.
RB Warrick Dunn only had one reception last week but it was good for a
TD. I’d look for more of that.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
Washington Passing Game vs Cardinal Defense (Note: For you folks who are not subscribers to the FREE Cheatsheets.net
mailing list, I wanted to give you a sample of the type of information
we regularly send out. This was sent to our subscribers at 5:45 PM Thursday
afternoon.)
Confirming what we thought this morning when we ranked Jeff George and
not Brad Johnson on our week
10 cheatsheet.
Brad Johnson
Out, Jeff George to Start From the article: Jeff George was named
the Washington Redskins' starting quarterback for Sunday's game at Arizona.
Coach Norv Turner said George would start after Brad Johnson was unable
to practice Thursday for a second consecutive day. Johnson sprained a
knee ligament in Monday night's loss to Tennessee. George missed Wednesday's
practice to attend the birth of his son, his third child.
George signed a four-year, $18.25 million contract in April to back up
Johnson. He has yet to play a down this season and has taken only about
10 percent of the snaps in practice.
"He had a very good practice today," Turner said. "He's into it, in terms
of what we're doing." The Redskins have a bye after the Arizona game,
but officials are uncertain whether Johnson will be able to return for
the following game, a Monday night trip to St. Louis.
"He's got a pretty tender knee," trainer Bubba Tyer said. "Grade 2 sprains
could be two weeks, could be four weeks." Further complicating the Redskins'
offensive preparation for this week, three receivers are suffering from
injuries, with Irving Fryar the most serious. Fryar, who missed practice
Wednesday because of a rib-cartilage injury, returned Thursday but is
questionable for Sunday.
Albert Connell practiced despite a sore right shoulder and is probable.
And James Thrash also practiced despite a strained thigh muscle and is
probable.
My View: I’m sure Jeff George isn’t available in your league but
if he’s on your roster, now might be the time to consider him. I’m not
overly excited though as Arizona has a pretty tough pass defense. Over
the last four weeks, they rank # 5 in passing yards allowed per game.
For the season, they rank # 13 in Fantasy Points Allowed by the Opposing
QB so they’re not quite as tough there. This could likely be an audition
for 2001 as many feel George is the Redskin QB of the future. A strong
performance could easily cause problems for the remainder of this year
as Washington tries to sort out the QB position. WRs Albert Connell and
James Thrash are both listed as probable and should be good to go. At
this point in the year, nobody is 100%. RB Larry Centers does such a nice
job catching the ball out of the backfield that TE Stephen Alexander has
been ineffective.
Atlanta Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense Tampa Bay gave up 300+ yards to Daunte Culpepper last week and 1 TD.
That’s pretty solid. They rank # 13 in passing yards allowed over the
last four weeks and # 22 when sorted by Fantasy Points Allowed by opposing
QB for the year. QB Chris Chandler played poorly last week but his mind
was certainly on his Father in Law, John Brodie who is recovering from
a stroke. I look at it this way – Minnesota brings a much more dangerous
passing game than do the Falcons and if Tampa could hold them in check,
they’ll likely do the same with Atlanta. WR Terance Mathis is the primary
receiver with Tim Dwight making the occasional home run appearance. Shawn
Jefferson, after a solid start to the season, has really tailed off. Reggie
Kelly is only an average TE.
Dallas Passing Game vs Eagle Defense This summer, Dallas featured more optimism in their training camp
than just about any other franchise. What a difference 9 weeks can make.
Joey Galloway’s gone and Troy Aikman looks like a shadow of his former
self. With Randall Cunningham at QB, the Cowboys square off against a
Philadelphia team that ranks # 6 in Fantasy Points Allowed by opposing
QBs for the year. They rank # 18 in passing yards allowed over the last
four weeks. Aikman sitting this one out may not be an altogether bad thing
for the Cowboys as Cunningham has moved the team well at times. WRs James
McKnight and Raghib Ismail will handle the WR duties. TE Jackie Harris
has been their most productive receiver with 5 TDs. Although don’t get
too excited about Harris as the Eagles are # 2 in the league for Fantasy
Points Allowed to opposing TEs.
San Francisco Passing Game vs Saints Defense As you know, I’m a big Jeff Garcia fan but this is a tough matchup
for the 49ers. New Orleans ranks # 10 over the last four weeks in passing
yards allowed per game and they rate # 4 for the year in Fantasy Points
Allowed to Opposing QBs. Couple that with the fact New Orleans is playing
very well of late with their ball control offense led by Ricky Williams
and it could be a tough game. Still though, it’s hard to dismiss a guy
like Garcia who’s been just red hot for a while now. He’s the # 1 QB over
the last three games throwing for 8 TDs and 886 yards. You don’t hear
anyone talking too much about it because the team’s not winning but he’s
putting together a season that statistically, would make Steve Young envious.
WR Terrell Owens is the best WR in the game right now. He’s big, physical,
and most importantly, incredible after the catch. He looks like a man
among boys out there. Jerry Rice as morphed into the perfect # 2 guy.
(yes, that still sounds strange) If you can think about benching any of
those three guys, you’re teams so loaded you probably don’t need any help
from me. RB Charlie Garner is one of the league’s best RBs and he’s tremendous
catching the ball. The only real weak link is the TE but that just means
more opportunity for the other guys.
New York Giant Passing Game vs Cleveland Defense The Cleveland Brown defense simply doesn’t yield many yards or Fantasy
Points through the air. The Browns rank # 8 in passing yards allowed over
the last four weeks. When ranked by Fantasy Points allowed by opposing
QBs, the Browns rank # 3 for the year. You could theorize that teams simply
don’t have to throw the ball since the Brown’s rush defense is weak, and
the Cleveland offense doesn’t score much. The “why” isn’t as important
as the “what”. And “what” happens is teams don’t roll up many passing
stats against Cleveland. QB Kerry Collins is coming off a nice week 9
where he threw for 253 yards and 1 TD. We predicted WR Amani Toomer would
respond in a positive manner to his 2nd half benching in his previous
game. I’d call 108 yards and a TD a positive response. Ike Hilliard is
a fine WR and a nice complement to Toomer. There’s been a good bit of
talk that Hilliard is the better WR but I still put my faith in Toomer.
TE Pete Mitchell is still a huge disappointment compare to what we thought
he’d do. Against the Brown defense, I think you’ll see heavy doses of
RBs Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber which should limit the Giant passing game.
Philadelphia Passing Game vs Dallas Defense Dallas is struggling offensively but the defense is playing well.
Over the last four weeks, they rank # 6 in passing yards allowed per game.
For the year, they’re not as strong in the Fantasy Points Allowed by QB
department where they rank #16. QB Donovan McNabb is coming off a poor
game last week where he only completed 10 of 31 passes for 129 yards and
1 TD. But the Cowboys are coming off a game where they allowed the struggling
Jaguars to throw for 3 TDs. Still I think the matchup favors the defense
here. Charles Johnson and Torrance Small are the WRs with Johnson being
the only guy worth looking at. One worrisome note is the fact defenses
have figured out how to shut down TE Chad Lewis who’d been on fire. Coach
Andy Reid says he’ll do some things with Lewis so teams aren’t as able
to bracket him. The RBs are a total mess and can’t be counted on for much
relief in the passing game..
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Tennessee Passing Game vs Steeler Defense Defense Pittsburgh rates as the toughest defense in the league when
it comes to Fantasy Points Allowed by Opposing QBs. Not good news for
Steve McNair who’s struggling against average defenses, much less one
as tough as Pittsburgh. They also rank # 1 in passing yards allowed per
game over the last four weeks. If McNair is a guy you normally consider
for your QB, I’d look elsewhere if you’ve got another solid starter. The
Titan WRs are a mess. Yancey Thigpen is likely out. If you haven’t cut
him by now, you’re not paying close attention. Derrick Mason and Chris
Sanders are the likely starters with Carl Pickens thrown in the mix. Outside
of Mason, I’d have a hard time starting any of these guys. The one receiver
I have no hesitation going with is TE Frank Wycheck. He’s as solid as
ever and is having a great season with 4 TDs so far. He’s clearly the
favored target for McNair. Here’s a small bright spot. Pittsburgh ranks
#1 in Fantasy Points Allowed for QBs. They rank # 3 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to WRs but against TEs, they’re just average, ranking # 16. What
does this mean? It means Wycheck is your best bet for Titan receiver this
week.
Cincinnati Passing Game vs Raven Defense
I can’t remember a team in recent history with such a disparity between
the offense and defense. The Raven offensive woes are well documented
as they went 0 for October in the TD department. At the same time, the
defense is squashing people. This week could be ugly as they take out
some frustration on the Bengal passing game. Baltimore is ranked # 2 over
the last four weeks in passing yards allowed per game. They also rank
# 2 in Fantasy Points Allowed by Opposing QBs. QB Akili Smith has a tough
time moving the ball against the practice squad guys. I doubt he’ll suddenly
become a good QB this Sunday. WR Peter Warrick is the primary WR but he’s
been stifled. He’s worth a shot if you’re desperate just because he’s
a guy who can make something happen whenever he touches the ball but I
don’t like the matchup for the passing game. TE Tony McGee is a total
non factor. This unit is all about Corey Dillon running the ball.
Cleveland Passing Game vs Giant Defense It’s a case of an awful offense meeting up against a pretty good
defense. Over the last four weeks, the Giants rank # 9 in passing yards
allowed per game. Those stats should be padded a bit after facing the
dynamic passing duo of Doug Pederson and Spergon Wynn. I actually like
some of the things I’ve seen Wynn do but he’s got a long way to go. WRs
Kevin Johnson, Dennis Northcutt and David Patten will catch what passes
there are to be caught but with the exception of possibly Johnson, you’re
reaching there. TE Aaron Shea is not a factor.
Arizona Passing Game vs Redskin Defense
Defense I’ve ripped Jake Plummer nearly every week this season and I’m
not stopping now. He’s just not very good. We all got excited (including
yours truly) after his scorching hot 2nd half of 1998. 2nd half statistics
are often a great indicator of the year to come. Any of you who drafted
Plummer last year likely have a differing opinion of how effective 2nd
half stats are in predicting future performance… I heard lots of folks
say that the 1999 season was a fluke and he’s really better than that.
I think it’s time we faced the music and admit his 1998 2nd half was the
fluke and what we’re seeing now is pretty much it. David Boston and Frank
Sanders will handle the WR duties but against a tough Washington pass
defense, I’m not excited about their chances. Washington ranks # 4 in
passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks and they earn
an # 7 ranking in Fantasy Points Allowed to Opposing QBs. RB Thomas Jones
will likely see plenty of action with Michael Pittman’s ribs hurting and
he does catch the ball well. On a positive note, TE Terry Hardy had a
great game Sunday with 7 receptions for 45 yards and a TD.
Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Titan Defense Tennessee enters this game playing as well as any team in the league.
Much of their success can be attributed to their defense. Over the last
four weeks, they rank # 7 in passing yards allowed per game. Since the
beginning of the season, they rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed by opposing
QBs. That’s a pretty formidable defense for a QB like Kordell Stewart
to face. Some feel Stewart plays better on the road but I’ve been to Adelphia
Coliseum and I don’t think any QB plays better on the road there. He’ll
be throwing the ball to Hines Ward, Bobby Shaw and Plaxico Burress but
I don’t see any of those guys as starters unless you’re in a huge league.
The Steelers will likely try to do what they do best – pound Jerome Bettis
so I don’t expect to see them pass too often and when they do, I don’t
expect them to have much success.
Rushing Game Matchups:
-LOCKS: These games heavily
favor the Offense.
Stephen Davis (Was) vs Cardinal Defense Much will be made of Jeff George getting his first start as a Redskin.
As I mentioned above in the passing matchups, I’m not all that excited
as the Cardinals play pretty good pass defense. More importantly, they
play horrible rush defense. Over the last four games, they rank # 26 in
rushing yards allowed. For the year, they’ve allowed more Fantasy Points
to RBs than any other team in the league. Look for Jeff George to lean
heavily on Stephen Davis as he settles into the QB role.
Ron Dayne / Tiki Barber (NYG) vs Brown Defense Much like Arizona, the Brown’s feature an offense that doesn’t score
too many points and a decent pass defense which is the result of opposing
teams choosing the safer route of running the ball. Few coaches will pass
up the chance to run the ball if the defense readily allows it. The Browns
readily allow it. They rank # 27 in rushing yards allowed and # 25 in
Fantasy Points allowed by opposing RBs. I’d think Dayne could have a big
game here as the Giants should be able to remain in control. Dayne struggles
in the games where the Giants are playing from behind and I just don’t
see that happening here.
Curtis Martin (NYJ) vs Bronco Defense Nothing like a Corey Dillon 278 yard rushing day to skew the stats.
Over the last four weeks, Denver ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed
per game with 170. In reality, they’re not that bad. At least I don’t
think so. I’d be willing to bet coach Mike Shanahan had the team work
more than once on the basics of tackling. They’ll get a good test against
one of the best RBs in the league in Curtis Martin. This game might actually
deserve to slide down to the Prime Matchup category but I want to see
how Denver responds on defense.
Edgerrin James (Ind) vs Bear Defense Chicago comes out of the bye week and must face the explosive Colts.
After a few sputters, Edgerrin James is running as well as any back in
the league right now. Chicago ranks # 30 in rushing yards allowed over
the last four games. For the year, they rank # 10 in Fantasy Points allowed
to opposing RBs. MLB Brian Urlacher should create a few problems for James
but I look for Indy to roll here.
Ricky Williams (NO) vs 49er Defense Like I need to tell you to start Ricky Williams. He’ll roll. San
Francisco’s rush defense is almost as bad as their pass defense. And their
pass defense is world class bad. I think he’s got a 200 yard rushing day
in him this year and it wouldn’t surprise me if this is the week. He’s
got a sore right shoulder and right knee but practiced this week and he’s
expected to play..
Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott (TB) vs Falcon Defense Keyshawn Johnson said after the Minnesota game last week that he
told QB Shaun King he needed to get the ball to his best players “19 and
28” “28” being of course Warrick Dunn. Whether this was a backhanded swipe
at Alstott, I don’t know but I do know Dunn kicked his game up a notch
Sunday rushing for 89 yards on 11 carries and catching a 23 yard TD. Alstott
played well too gaining 56 yards on 10 carries and most importantly, no
fumbles. The Falcons rank # 25 in rushing yards allowed over the last
four weeks. For the year, they rank # 30 in Fantasy Points allowed by
RBs.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense
Terrell Davis (Den) vs Jets Defense
He’s Baaaaaaaaaaaaaack. I may be overly optimistic but I’m excited about
Terrell Davis’ return to action. How many players get to make two comebacks
in one year? I’m banking on the character of the Broncos and that they’ll
bounce back with a vengeance after the embarrassing loss to the Bengals
in their last game. TD reportedly has looked as good as he ever has and
should be ready to lead the way. He’ll still likely be spelled by Mike
Anderson but I think you’ll see Davis grab the bulk of the work.
Marshall Faulk (StL) vs Panther Defense Coach Mike Martz called himself “stupid” the other day when he failed
have a backup kicker active to cover for the injured Jeff Wilkins. That
wasn’t stupid. But you’ll be hard pressed to define calling future Hall
of Famer Reggie White “inconsistent” and “at the end of his career” three
days before playing him as anything but stupid. C’mon Coach, you’re the
defending World Champs. There’s tape running whenever you open your mouth.
Think first. Angry Reggie or no, Faulk should still have a good day. Carolina
ranks # 27 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to opposing RBs. Over
the last four weeks, they rank # 20 in rushing yards allowed.
Terrell Fletcher / Jermaine Fazande / Kenny Bynum / Robert Chancey
/ Natrone Means / Deuce McAllister vs Seattle Defense Just making sure you were paying attention. The Chargers could use
a 1994 model Natrone Means or a 2001 Deuce McAllister but that isn’t happening
this week. It’s a shame as the Seahawk defense is awful. They rank # 28
in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks and # 26 in
Fantasy Points allowed to RBs. If you get a hunch one of these guys may
see significant time, jump on it. But I’m guessing it’s more committee
for this game.
Stanley Pritchett / Darnell Autry / Amp Lee vs Cowboy Defense This one is really frustrating. The team that can’t move the ball
on the ground squares off against the team that can’t stop anyone on the
ground. Dallas is # 29 in Fantasy Points allowed by RBs this year. They’re
also # 29 in rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks. But who’ll
carry the ball for the Eagles is a crapshoot. I’ll keep an eye on it to
see if one guy might emerge but right now it’s a great matchup with no
one to take advantage of it.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way
Jamal Anderson (Atl) vs Buccaneer Defense
Jamal Anderson seems to have turned the corner. He’s running hard and
having good success. Last week, he rolled up 90 yards on 25 carries. This
week, he faces a Tampa Defense that’s probably not quite as tough as their
reputation. The Bucs rank # 22 in rushing yards allowed over the last
four weeks. They rank # 15 in Fantasy Points allowed by RBs. QB Chris
Chandler should have his mind more on football this week so hopefully,
he’ll provide a little help.
Sammy Morris / Shawn Bryson (Buf) vs Patriot Defense The Patriots enter this game with a defense ranked # 21 in rushing
yards allowed over the last four weeks. They also rank # 18 in Fantasy
Points allowed by RBs for the year. Both RBs are solid, tough runners
who can grind out the tough yards. The Patriot LB corps took a hit this
week with Andy Katzenmoyer going to the IR but they’ve got plenty of talent
there in Ted Johnson, Chris Slade and Tedy Bruschi.
Lamar Smith (Mia) vs Detroit Defense Smith has been one of the nicer surprises of 2000 as he continues
to run hard and productively. The Lions rank # 12 in rushing yards allowed
over the last four weeks and # 13 in Fantasy Points allowed be opposing
RBs for the year. Bryant Westbrook and the Detroit secondary are playing
solid defense and it’s likely the Dolphins will be forced to the ground.
Jamal Lewis (Bal) vs Bengal Defense
You have to hand it to new coach Dick LeBeau. The Bengals are improved
on defense and are playing with passion. A few weeks ago, Cincinnati ranked
# 30 in rushing yards allowed. Now they’re up to a very respectable #
19. That’s a nice change. Lewis is chomping at the bit though. The offensive
troubles are well documented but it’s just a matter of time before they
break loose. I’m inclined to agree with TE Shannon Sharpe who said he
thought the TDs would come in bunches once they got the first couple out
of the way. In their first meeting this year, Lewis ran for 116 yards
and a TD.
Emmitt Smith (Dal) vs Eagle Defense You can make a good case for this one on both sides: Emmitt Smith
is a guy who’ll carry a team when they need help and with Aikman out,
this is one of those times. On the other hand, the Eagles play solid run
defense ranking # 18 in rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks.
They rank # 11 in Fantasy Points allowed by RBs..
James Allen (Chi) vs Colt Defense James Allen continues his quest make the fans forget about Curtis
Enis. He’s been a decent player over the last few weeks but needs to up
the level of his play. He’ll get a chance to do that against a Colt team
that’s struggled at times. Over the last few weeks, the Colt rank # 15
in rushing yards allowed. They rank # 14 in Fantasy Points allowed to
RBs for this season. The Bears are looking for a spark from QB Jim Miller
and they very well may get it.
Napoleon Kaufman (Oak) vs Chiefs Defense With Tyrone Wheatley likely to miss significant time this week, coach
Jon Gruden sounds confident in Kaufman’s ability to carry the load. The
Chiefs rank # 23 in Fantasy Points allowed to RBs this year. They rank
# 16 in rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks. I wouldn’t be
surprised to see Kaufman post some nice numbers here in Wheatley’s absence.
Ahman Green (GB) vs Viking Defense With Dorsey Levens nursing a bad knee, it looks like Green will carry
the load against Minnesota. I think he’s up for the task. Minnesota ranks
# 13 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks while
they rank # 12 in Fantasy Points allowed by opposing RBs. The Bucs showed
last week that Minnesota can be run (and thrown) on.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense
Tshimanga Biakabutuka (Car) vs Ram Defense I’m interested to see what this team looks like without TE Wesley
Walls. I’m thinking Biakabutuka could take up some slack in the short
passing game where he’s already been involved. The Rams rank # 4 in rushing
yards allowed over the last four weeks but they’re # 24 in Fantasy Points
Allowed by opposing RBs for the year. Biakabutuka was nursing a sore knee
early this week but he should be ok to go Sunday. He’d better be as Brad
Hoover is now his backup…
Robert Smith (Min) vs Packer Defense After a relatively quiet game against Tampa Bay Sunday, I look for
Smith to come out blazing against the Packers. Green Bay ranks # 10 in
rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks. They also rank # 10 in
Fantasy Points allowed by opposing RBs. Smith has the speed to exploit
parts of the Packer Defense and I think you’ll see him have some success.
Kimble Anders / Frank Moreau / Tony Richardson vs Raider Defense Too many RBs against a tough Defense doesn’t spell FF success. The
Raiders are pretty tough defending the run ranking # 5 in rushing yards
allowed over the last four weeks. Of the bunch, I’d put my money on Anders
if I had to choose just one.
Shaun Alexander / Ricky Watters vs Charger Defense Ricky Watters’ iron man status could be in jeopardy as he’s in danger
of missing time with a bad case of turf toe. Rookie Shaun Alexander may
get the start although Holmgren could give it to Watters to keep the streak
alive. I don’t look for great things from either guy as the Charger run
defense is solid. They rank # 6 in rushing yards allowed over the last
four weeks and # 19 in Fantasy Points allowed by RBs for the year.
James Stewart (Det) vs Dolphin Defense
James Stewart is starting to get himself untracked but he may hit an obstacle
against Miami this week. Even without MLB Zach Thomas, the Dolphins are
tough and will make things plenty rough on Stewart. Miami ranks # 7 in
rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks. They rank # 9 in Fantasy
Points allowed by opposing RBs for the year.
Corey Dillon (Cin) vs Raven Defense
The Ravens rank # 8 in the league in rushing yards allowed over the last
four weeks. They rank # 4 for Fantasy Points allowed by RBs. Corey Dillon
comes into this game with 415 yards rushing over his last two games. Something’s
got to give. I’m betting it’s going to be Dillon. But that’s why they
play the game. In their week 4 matchup, Dillon gained a whopping 9 yards
on 12 carries.
Thomas Jones / Michael Pittman (Arz) vs Redskin Defense
Pittman’s nursing sore ribs and could be limited Sunday. Jones will start
if Pittman can’t go. Washington ranks # 9 in rushing yards allowed over
the last four weeks. The Redskins are even tougher when sorted by Fantasy
Points allowed by opposing RBs where they come in # 6 for the year. Looks
like the Cardinal rushing game could be in trouble.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense
Travis Prentice (Cle) vs Giants Defense
Travis Prentice sure seems like he’s running hard without a lot to show
for it. I don’t think his luck’s going to change this weekend as he faces
a tough Giant Defense. New York ranks #1 in rushing yards allowed per
game over the last four weeks and # 3 in Fantasy Points allowed by opposing
RBs for the year. They’re playing too well right now to let Cleveland
hang with them.
Charlie Garner (SF) vs Saints Defense If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know I’m a big Charlie
Garner fan. But this matchup is awful. The Saints are shutting people
down. They rank # 3 in rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks
and # 2 in Fantasy Points allowed by RBs for the year. You’ve got to slide
Garner down the list a bit against these guys. He’s still a starter and
with his explosiveness, he’s still liable to have a great day, but the
matchup is tough this week.
J.R. Redmond / Kevin Faulk (NE) vs Bills Defense Defense Redmond should get the start and work primarily on 1st and
2nd down. Faulk will likely be the third down back. It may not matter
a whole lot as the Bills Defense is solid. Buffalo ranks # 3 in rushing
yards allowed over the last four games. They rank # 5 in Fantasy Points
allowed by opposing RBs for the year.
Eddie George (Ten) vs Steeler Defense Assuming he gets over his toe and ankle injuries, Eddie George is
a sure starter unless you’re just loaded at RB. But, I do not like this
matchup. Pittsburgh ranks #1 in Fantasy Points allowed by RBs. In their
week 4 matchup, George was held to 76 total yards which was the lowest
complete game total for the season thus far. Pittsburgh’s defense is playing
with confidence and they’ll likely be a factor in holding George down
from his normal lofty totals.
Jerome Bettis (Pit) vs Titan Defense The last time Tennessee faced a pounding power back like Bettis was
Ron Dayne in week 5. Dayne had 3 rushes for –1 yards in that contest.
Tennessee ranks # 14 in rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks.
They fall in at # 7 in Fantasy Points allowed by opposing RBs. The Steelers
have few other weapons outside of Bettis so look for them to give it a
go. Bettis did rush for 77 yards and a TD in their week 4 matchup.
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