Changing and expanding the format again this week as I try to include
even more players for you. I’m trying weigh how valuable this expanded
format is to folks so drop me a line and tell me what you think
of this new style and if you find it useful.
Passing Game Matchups:
Here's how
I see the matchups this week. Please note, see the cheatsheet
for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. Just because
one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily
mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. For instance, last week
I had Cade McNown ranked ahead of Kerry Collins even though I had Collins
down for having more favorable matchup. The matchup info is meant to be
just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between players.
But when in doubt, stick with the cheatsheet ranking.
Note: I've used the player stats sorted by performance over the last two
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by
Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management
Software. I've used a lot of information based on the previous 3 weeks
worth of games. I prefer that look as it gives me a better idea of the
trends vs a season long view. Understand what you're looking at though.
The 3 "worst" pass defenses in the league over the last 3 weeks just happen
to be the Rams last 3 opponents. I take things like that into consideration
and you should too when looking at the raw numbers you see thrown about
in other places.
Enough talking. Here we go for the week 6 Matchups:
-LOCKS: These
games heavily favor the offense.
New York Jets Passing Game vs Steeler Defense
IThe Steelers held Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith in check last week but
I tend to think that says more about the Jags than it does the Steeler
secondary. I thought Smith would do well but it was Keenan McCardell who
had the field day with 11 receptions for 137 yards and a score. The Jets
have had a week to prepare and any chance Pittsburgh had of sneaking up
on anyone went out the window after the drubbing they gave Jacksonville.
QB Vinny Testeverde should be able to find WR Wayne Chrebet often as Pittsburgh
CB Dewane Washington just doesn't have the skills to handle the newly
knighted "Green Lantern" Chrebet. Gotta love that name after Keyshawn
Johnson calling him a "flashlight" in comparison to himself, the "star".
Both RB Curtis Martin and FB Richie Anderson have 11 receptions over their
last 2 games so Testeverde will have plenty of targets. WRs Laveranues
Coles and Dedric Ward haven't shown much lately but TE Anthony Becht could
start fulfilling some of his draft day promise. The Steeler pass rush
did finally awake last week sacking Brunell a whopping 7 times. But the
fact that they'd only sacked the QB 1 time in the 2 games prior to Jacksonville
makes me again think it had more to do with Jacksonville's OL than the
Steeler rush.
New Orleans Passing Game vs Bear Defense
The Bears made Brett Favre and the Packers look pretty good last week
allowing 333 yards passing for Favre and 3 TD's. It wasn't anything new
as over the last 3 games, they've averaged giving up 250 passing yards
per game. QB Jeff Blake hasn't taken off in the West Coast offense like
many had hoped but he's got a chance this week to show he's improving.
Blake is 33 of 63 for 327 yards with 1 passing TD and 1 rushing TD over
the past 2 games. He's got some underrated WRs in Joe Horn, Keith Poole
and Jake Reed. Of the bunch, Horn seems to be the favored target with
11 receptions for 102 yards over the past 2 games. With TE Cam Cleeland
gone, they've had virtually zero production from the TE which is maybe
why you've seen RB Ricky Williams become more involved in short passing
game. Williams is averaging 6 receptions and 44 yards per game over the
last 2 which is a nice bonus for Williams owners.
Oakland Passing Game vs 49er Defense San Francisco is playing better as a team of late but the pass defense
is still porous. Everyone looks bad against St. Louis as they did in week
3 but even throwing the Dallas and Arizona games into the 3 week average,
they're still giving up 283 yards per game over that stretch. The secondary
will likely have trouble when they face wily veterans like QB Rich Gannon,
and WRs Tim Brown, James Jett and Andre Rison. They should be able to
exploit inexperienced San Francisco corners Ahmed Plummer and Marty Montgomery.
Jett could be playing his way out of a job with his lackluster efforts
but his speed could be a real plus against the 49ers. TE Ricky Dudley
has averaged 4 catches per game over the last 2 so he could be a factor.
Neither RB Tyrone Wheatley or Napoleon Kaufman have been catching the
ball enough to make a big impact in the passing game.
Cleveland Passing Game vs Arizona Defense The Cardinals feature one of the worst passing defenses in the league
to pair with one of the worst rush defenses. That's a potentially lethal
combination and it's one even a team like Cleveland with marginal offensive
firepower should be able to exploit. Aeneas Williams is a fine corner
but he can't do it all. With Errict Rhett done for the year, I'd expect
Arizona to come after new RB Travis Prentice. QB Tim Couch can be dangerous
if he has time to throw and Arizona only has 2 sacks over the last 2 games
even though they blitz often. New WRs David Patten and rookie Dennis Northcutt
seem to be moving toward the front of the receiver pack while the better
known Kevin Johnson has disappeared lately. Darren Chiaverini seems to
be slipping too. Patten is undersized but slippery and could make some
plays.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
Atlanta Passing Game vs Giant Defense Of his 593 passing yards for the season, Titan QB Steve McNair racked
up 293 of them in the Giants game last week. Lots of times when you see
matchup articles like this one, you'll see the writer talk about the size
advantage WRs may have over shorter cornerbacks. Size certainly isn't
a problem for Giant CBs Dave Thomas (6' 3") and Jason Sehorn (6' 2") but
the Giants still haven't been able to consistently stop the passing game.
In defense of Sehorn and Thomas, the safeties and Linebackers struggled
against the Titans as TEs Frank Wycheck and Erron Kinney combined for
10 receptions and 102 yards. I wouldn't be surprised to see Falcon QB
Chris Chandler have some success throwing to his TE Reggie Kelly. WRs
Shawn Jefferson, Terance Mathis and Tim Dwight have cooled a little bit
but they could do some damage if Chandler can find the time to go deep.
Green Bay Passing Game vs Lion Defense The Lions have averaged giving up 242 passing yards per game over
the last 3 weeks. With RB Dorsey Levens likely to be a question, look
for the Packers to ride the arm of QB Brett Favre in this game. Detroit
has a nice pair of DEs in Robert Porcher and Tracey Scroggins but the
Lions have only recorded 3 sacks in the last 3 games. For WRs, Bill Schroeder
is the unlikely leader of late with 13 catches for 220 yards and 3 TDs
over the last 3 games. Antonio Freeman and Donald Driver have been less
involved. Freeman did have a TD last week so maybe he's coming around.
With TE Tyrone Davis injured last week, rookie TE Bubba Franks responded
with a nice 5 catch / 54 yard day. CBs Bryant Westbrook and Terry Fair
will have to show they can prevent the big play. Last week, the Lions
gave up 3 TDs of 50+ yards to Minnesota so look for Favre to show off
his arm deep.
Baltimore Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense I couldn't have imagined writing this a year ago but the Jacksonville
Defense has really faltered. They've allowed a surprising 722 yards of
passing offense the last 3 weeks. Sure, the big game vs Indianapolis hurt
but the other 2 opponents in that time span were Cincinnati and Pittsburgh,
not exactly passing powers. Remember, the Ravens started the Jacksonville
skid when they hung 39 points on the Jags back in week 2. QB Tony Banks
has struggled lately throwing only 2 TDs over the past 3 weeks. That could
change Sunday though. RBs Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes and Obafemi Ayanbadejo
all catch the ball well. Banks is quickly becoming very comfortable with
new TE Shannon Sharpe and their #2 TE Ben Coates still has plenty left.
Rookie WR Travis Taylor continues to improve and may be the best WR over
Qadry Ismail and Patrick Johnson. Jacksonville has a pair of physical
corners in Fernando Bryant and Aaron Beasley so I wouldn't be surprised
to see Banks continue to focus on the short / intermediate passes to his
RBs and TEs and then pick his spots as the WRs find their way open in
the secondary.
Denver Passing Game vs Charger Defense I said last week it was difficult to label the Chargers as a defense
to be exploited but it's becoming a little easier now. The fared no better
in slowing the high powered Rams than did Atlanta or San Francisco before
them. Owners of QB Brian Griese breathed a sigh of relief as he not only
battled through the shoulder injury, he threw the ball more times (50)
than any other QB Sunday. He rolled up 361 yards in doing so. WRs Rod
Smith (13 for 160 yards) and Ed McCaffrey (9 for 91 yards) had huge days.
Smith seems to be slightly favored over McCaffrey but you can't complain
when your WR has 9 receptions. TEs Byron Chamberlain and Dwayne Carswell
catch just enough to make them both as fringe starters. With LB Jr. Seau
questionable with a hamstring injury, the Chargers should be vulnerable
once again.
San Diego Passing Game vs Bronco Defense QHard to discount the fact Drew Bledsoe had struggled until he faced
the Bronco defense. Jim Harbaugh and Moses Moreno rolled together won't
make a Drew Bledsoe but I'm thinking this might be a good matchup for
the Chargers. Remember the Broncos were also the team that brought KC
TE Tony Gonzalez out of his funk. Look for TE Freddie Jones to have success
in this game against a defense that's shown itself to be vulnerable underneath.
QB Jim Harbaugh may not have the strongest arm, but he's a seasoned vet
and can deliver the intermediate pass. Jones is a talent mired in a bad
team. On the upside, he's the best receiver the Chargers have so they
throw to him often. Rookie WR Trevor Gaylor showed some promise on his
62 yard TD (his only catch) and veteran Jeff Graham had a big day Sunday
with 7 receptions for 107 yards. Graham hasn't fulfilled the expectations
he brought with him so this could be the start. On the defensive side
of the ball, Denver's allowed 75 points over the last 3 games which is
awfully high.
New York Giant Passing Game vs Falcon Defense The Falcons rank dead last in passing yards allowed over the last
3 games. Although you can't discount the fact they'd had to face Kurt
Warner and Steve Beuerlein in that span. Even so, their secondary has
struggled. The Giants hit a pretty hard speedbump last week in a Tennessee
defense that really limited the Giant Rushing game. Unfortunately, like
most teams, their passing game is predicated on them being able to rush
the ball and neither one got off the ground. Things were made even worse
by a powerful Titan offense that wouldn't give up the ball. This week,
QB Kerry Collins should have an easier go. I'd expect RBs Tiki Barber
and Ron Dayne to be much more involved. Collins should be able to develop
a better rhythm and get WRs Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard back in the
flow. Hilliard's been garnering attention lately but Toomer has been getting
lots of looks. Clearly, Collins feels comfortable with both at this point.
Falcon CBs Ashley Ambrose and Ray Buchanon are thought of as quality players
but it seems I've seen them on the wrong end of too many highlight films
recently. The guy who doesn't seem to be getting any love is TE Pete Mitchell.
He was virtually invisible in last week's game. Until he shows something,
I'd look elsewhere for a TE.
Indianapolis Passing Game vs Patriot Defense Brian Griese ripped New England for 361 yards last week. I like Griese
but I like QB Peyton Manning even more. Part of the reason this doesn't
rate a "lock" matchup is the ability the Pats seem to have in holding
RB Edgerrin James down in the passing game. In their two meetings last
year, James only recorded 3 catches for 17 yards. He usually has that
in the first quarter of a game. (Fortunately for James owners, they don't
stop the run nearly as well but that's the next section) Of course the
beauty of the Colt offense is that they can beat you in so many ways.
If (and that's a pretty good "if") New England can limit James receiving,
Manning has WRs Marvin Harrison and Terrence Wilkins to look for. Over
the last 3 games, both Wilkins and Harrison rate in the top 10 WRs. TEs
Marcus Pollard and Ken Dilger make great targets as well to keep the LBs
occupied. WRs Jerome Pathon and E.G. Green could likely contribute in
3 and 4 WR sets. All in all, just too many weapons to stop.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.
Minnesota Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense
Believe it or not, the vaunted Buc defense ranks #18 in passing yards
allowed per game over the last 3 weeks. They are getting good pressure
on the QB (11 sacks in that span) but they're allowing more yardage then
normal. QB Daunte Culpepper continues to look fantastic as he churns his
way through the schedule. Culpepper fared well against the tough Miami
Defense and I don't expect Tampa to bring anything tougher than what he
saw there. I feel confident in Culpepper but the big question is which
WR will grab the receptions? After a few weeks of less than expected production,
WR Randy Moss exploded last week with 7 catches for 168 yards and 3 TDs.
This week, he'll see less man coverage and more zone which will likely
dampen his monster numbers. The beneficiary of the Tampa zone coverage
will likely be WR Cris Carter. The experienced vet is a master at finding
the seams and open spots there. I look for Moss to still break some long
ones and likely have better numbers but I think it'll be Carter who's
the more frequent target. RB Robert Smith catches a few balls but he's
running as strongly as he has in his career and frees up the passing game
with his determined rushing.
New England Passing Game vs Colt Defense QThis week we get to see which New England team is for real. Is the
Drew Bledsoe that was sacked a jillion times through the early part of
the season or is it the Bledsoe who ripped the Broncos last week for 271
yards and 4 TDs? I'm betting the real guy is somewhere in between leaning
toward the guy we saw last week. With games against Tampa Bay, New York
Jets, Minnesota, Miami and then Denver last week, the Pats opened with
a brutal schedule. It doesn't get a lot easier this week, although the
Colt Defense is definitely beatable. They're allowing a little over 200
yards passing per game over the last 2 games. On the flip side, they've
been tough protecting the endzone only allowing 3 TDs over that time.
One good thing about New England is you know that WRs Terry Glenn and
Troy Brown will garner almost all the receptions. May not be the best
thing for Patriot fans, but it sure makes life easier for Fantasy Football
GMs. Indy CBs Jeff Burress and Tyrone Poole will have their hands full.
The improved play of Brown can't be discounted as it makes everyone better
if teams aren't allowed to smother Glenn. Between RBs Kevin Faulk and
J.R. Redmond, they do a nice job catching the ball and that should continue
here.
Carolina Passing Game vs Seattle Defense With the abrupt resignation of Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave,
it'll be interesting to see how the Panthers respond this week. The offense
had been underperforming so perhaps you can expect an improvement without
Musgrave. On the other hand, it's hard to argue that losing key components
like 1999 Offensive Coordinator Gil Haskell and now Musgrave (1999 QB
Coach) can be good for an offense. However, QB Steve Beuerlein is no rookie
and he should be able to handle the transition better than a younger player.
Assistant Head Coach Richard Williamson takes over the OC duties. He was
most recently the WR coach so he's no stranger to the offense. Seattle's
been prone to allowing the big play of late with corners Shawn Springs
and Willie Williams playing an aggressive technique. That may mean good
things for explosive WR Donald Hayes. Muhsin Muhammad remains the primary
WR threat though and should be able to work the shorter routes while Hayes
stretches the field. And of course, you always have to figure on TE Wesley
Walls getting lots of looks in the red zone even with the physical LB
play of Seattle.
Cincinnati Passing Game vs Titans Defense The Titans are playing great football right now but you can't help
but notice they are allowing 220 yards passing per game over their last
2 games which puts them at #21 over that time span. I'm not real optimistic
about how successful he'll be running the ball, but Tennessee will face
a rejuvenated RB in Corey Dillon coming off a very solid game which could
open a few passing lanes for QB Akili Smith and his primary target WR
Peter Warrick. Although to be fair, I thought the Giants would be able
to run last week against the Titans and I was clearly wrong. Peter Warrick
has struggled in part because #2 WR Ron Dugans has been ineffective allowing
teams to roll coverage toward Warrick. TE Tony McGee finally awoke last
week and Smith did a nice job getting him the ball 6 times for 74 yards.
Don't get too excited though as the Giants were only able to complete
2 passes for 2 yards to their TEs last week.
Chicago Passing Game vs Saint Defense
Cade McNown and the Bears enter this game finally removing the "winless"
monkey from their back. There's reason to think they could do well even
though New Orleans is playing pretty solid pass defense. However, they've
yet to face a strong passing attack. QB Cade McNown put the boo birds
to rest and hopefully gained some confidence. He should be able to find
plenty of matchups to exploit as Chicago's spread offense forces New Orleans
into their nickel and dime packages. WR Marcus Robinson continues to roll
and he's the clear favorite of McNown. It's less clear after that with
Marty Booker and Eddie Kennison seeing some action. TE John Allred did
a nice job catching 4 passes but he may wind up at FB depending on how
Curtis Enis' shoulder does this week.
San Francisco Passing Game vs Raider Defense Oakland has been playing solid pass defense lately allowing 173 yards
per game. But 49'er QB Jeff Garcia is on a roll and ranks as the #4 QB
over the past 3 weeks. And that was with his best WR in Terrell Owens
out last week. I look for good things from the 49'ers in this game even
with a solid defense. Garcia was extremely impressive last week spreading
the ball around to WRs Jerry Rice, J.J. Stokes and Tai Streets in the
face of almost constant blitzing from Arizona. Owens and the team seem
to have put the Dallas incident behind them and are ready to move forward.
Owens becomes the prime WR with Rice #2 and Stokes #3. The real weapon
for Garcia throwing the ball is RB Charlie Garner and FB Fred Beasley.
Between the two, they've caught 18 passes for 143 yards and 2 TDs over
the past 3 games. I've had a few folks ask how I could have Garcia rated
above Daunte Culpepper yet have Randy Moss and Cris Carter higher than
the SF WRs. Garner and Beasley are the reason why. They provide near #1
WR receiving numbers from the RB spot.
Tennessee Passing Game vs Bengal Defense Many Fantasy Football GMs would be surprised to know that over the
last 3 weeks, the Bengal pass defense rates #7 in the league in passing
yards allowed per game. I suppose you could rationalize with the fact
their offense is weak enough and their rush defense is soft enough that
teams just don't have to pass often against Cincinnati. Regardless of
the reason, teams haven't been throwing the ball against the Bengals.
With QB Steve McNair handing off to RB Eddie George, you may see more
of the same this week. The Titan WRs are hobbled. Kevin Dyson is lost
for the year. Yancey Thigpen and Carl Pickens are both troubled with Hamstring
injuries and Chris Sanders had a slight concussion Sunday although he
should play. It looks to me like the best WR is easily Derrick Mason who
was exceptional Sunday vs the Giants. Mason may be the best WR but TE
Frank Wycheck is clearly the best receiver. Forget any talk about Offensive
Coordinator Mike Heimerdinger stretching the field this year. These are
the same Titans and McNair looks first to Wycheck. In fact, his 2nd option
seems to be #2 TE Erron Kinney. Together, the two TEs totaled 10 catches
for 116 yards and 2 TDs Sunday. Don't forget that Eddie George has improved
his receiving ability. He had a TD pass that should have been caught last
week.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
Arizona Passing Game vs Brown Defense Defense Like the Bengals, the Browns allow surprisingly few yards
passing. I'd think you could make the similar case that teams simply choose
to run the ball against a rush defense that doesn't scare anyone. But
it's hard to ignore the fact they've only allowed an average of 175 yards
passing per game in their last 3 (Bal / Oak / Pit) I'm not a big Jake
Plummer fan but he did play an entire game last without throwing in interception
which is a hugely successful day for him. WRs David Boston and Frank Sanders
will collect the bulk of his throws with Boston the clear #1 in my opinion.
RB Michael Pittman gets the start this week and he's an excellent receiver
hauling in 6 passes for 72 yards Sunday. If trends hold true however,
you'll see Pittman rushing the ball more effectively and more often than
you'll see Plummer throwing it.
Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Jets Defense The Jets enter this game coming off a bye and playing decent pass
defense. They've allowed an average of 197 passing yards per game over
their last 2. Neither QB Kent Graham nor Kordell Stewart have been effective
passing the ball and I don't see many reasons why they'll start now. The
Steelers eliminated any chance of surprise after their win over Jacksonville
so you know the Jets won't be taking this one lightly. Plaxico Burress
remains their best WR as long as he can remember not to spike the ball
when it's still in play. Troy Edwards and Hines Ward will also see action.
TEs Mark Bruener and Corey Geason aren't utilized as receivers very well.
Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Viking Defense Minnesota's pass defense has improved raising themselves from one
of the weaker units in the league one that's average. But against a struggling
Tampa Bay passing game, it has the advantage. QB Shaun King is only averaging
182 yards per game over the past 3 weeks. Self proclaimed "star" Keyshawn
Johnson has 15 receptions for 127 yards over the last 3 games for a whopping
8.5 yards per reception average. Both RBs Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn
have a better reception average (12.0 and 11.9 respectively) Jacquez Green
has only 5 receptions over that span but has turned those 5 chances into
138 yards for an average of 27.6. Neither Green nor Johnson have a TD
in the last 3 games. TE Dave Moore has been productive with 6 receptions
for 57 yards and 1 score. I look for Offensive Coordinator Les Steckel
to play this one conservatively on the road and that means lots of Mike
Alstott and Warrick Dunn on the ground.
Miami Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense Not unlike the Tampa Bay game, the Dolphins are a team with a strong
defense but weak passing attack overmatched against an average defense.
Buffalo ranks #13 over the last few weeks in passing yards allowed per
game with 186. QB Jay Fiedler is averaging 156 passing yards per game
over the same span. WR Oronde Gadsden was Fiedler's favorite target last
week. After Gadsden, it becomes a guessing game between Leslie Shepherd,
Bert Emanuel and Tony Martin. The Bills will likely allow cornerbacks
Antione Winfield and Ken Irvin to stay in man coverage on the WRs while
they concentrate on stopping the run, something they've been successful
doing except against Tennessee.
Philadelphia Passing Game vs Redskin Defense The Eagles will be without RB Duce Staley and that's a big loss.
Brian Mitchell has explosive ability but he's not the everydown back that
Staley is. Without Staley, I'd expect you'll see Defensive Coordinator
Ray Rhodes focus his attention on QB Donovan McNabb. McNabb is progressing
well but he's yet to face a secondary like Washington's with Deion Sanders,
Champ Bailey and Darrell Green. WRs Charles Johnson and Torrance Small
have played very well but the nicest surprise has been the excellent play
of TE Chad Lewis. Lewis has 12 receptions for 95 yards and a score over
the last few games.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Detroit Passing Game vs Packer Defense Green Bay may have troubles but defending the pass isn't one of them.
They've held opponents to 153 yards passing per game over the last 3 weeks.
That's not much. They're facing a Detroit offense that's only averaging
9.1 yards per completion. Detroit QB Charlie Batch has played pretty well
and WR Germane Crowell seems to be the favored target. Johnnie Morton
has been a contributor as well. TE David Sloan has been solid but not
spectacular. The Green Bay cornerbacks Tyrone Williams and Tod McBride
play an aggressive technique and could give the WRs trouble. The Packers
have recorded 11 sacks in the last 3 games so they're certainly getting
pressure on the QB.
Buffalo Passing Game vs Miami Defense
The Dolphin pass defense is as stingy as ever. QB Rob Johnson has played
well thus far but I definitely do not like this matchup. The Bills lean
heavily on WR Eric Moulds but look for Miami CB Sam Madison to blanket
him for most of the game. In their last 2 meetings, Madison has been effective
in holding Moulds down. WR Peerless Price has been ineffective and Jeremy
McDaniel is green. The lack of a viable #2 WR will definitely hurt. TE
Jay Reimersma is progressing nicely, but he's still a week or two away
from being ready. RB Sammy Morris catches the ball well and is working
his way into the RB committee with Shawn Bryson and Jonathon Linton. The
Bills are a good team, they'll just struggle against this defense I believe.
Jacksonville Passing Game vs Raven Defense Baltimore is allowing less than 150 passing yards per game over the
last 3 weeks. QB Mark Brunell is only averaging 181 yards per game over
the last 3 so they should get along just fine. WR Jimmy Smith had been
hot but last week vs Pittsburgh, he caught only 2 of the many passes thrown
his way. Keenan McCardell had a big day though. Bottom line, it seems
Brunell feels comfortable throwing to both which makes it tough for both
Smith and McCardell owners. RB Fred Taylor does catch the ball well but
the Raven LBs will limit the underneath routes. Same goes for TE Kyle
Brady. The Jaguar Offensive Line is still ailing and I'd expect you'll
see Baltimore take advantage of it. One positive for Jacksonville could
be that Raven CB Duane Starks is nursing a sore hamstring and could be
held out of the game.
Washington Passing Game vs Eagle Defense
The Redskin passing game is gaining confidence but they'll face a tough
test in an Eagle defense that's only allowed 23 points over the last 3
weeks. QB Brad Johnson has been solid and the patchwork WR corps of Albert
Connell, Irving Fryar, and James Thrash has been fine. Fryar has been
an especially nice surprise. Eagle cornerbacks Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent
are excellent cover men and the Eagles have 12 sacks in the last 3 games
so they're bringing a lot of pressure. Washington FB Larry Centers and
TE Stephen Alexander do a nice job on the shorter routes but the Eagles
are tough there as well. Look for Philadelphia to blitz Sunday and attack
guard Jay Leeuwenburg and center Mark Fischer who are filling in for injured
starters Tre Johnson and Cory Raymer. Could be a long day for the Redskin
passing attack.
Seattle Passing Game vs Panther Defense Carolina brings the top rated pass defense in yards allowed per game
over the last 3 weeks (Dal / Atl) and they get to face new QB Brock Huard
who gets the start over Jon Kitna. I want to see Huard for a full game,
but from what I've seen thus far, I'm not excited about his prospects.
On the upside, Huard did develop a nice relationship with WR Darrell Jackson
as they both were recently on the 2nd team. Sean Dawkins is the #2 WR
but seems to trail Jackson by a good bit. Huard may eventually develop
into a nice QB but I don't like this matchup with his first game on the
road against an excellent pass defense. Carolina has some aggressive corners
in Jimmy Hitchcock, Doug Evans and Eric Davis who will likely be limit
Hayes and the Seattle passing game.
Rushing Game Matchups:
-LOCKS: These games heavily
favor the Offense.
Michael Pittman (Arz) vs Cleveland Defense Rookie Thomas Jones
is replaced this week as starter by Michael Pittman and the timing couldn't
be better. The Cardinals face the porous Cleveland rush defense and Pittman
should run wild. Cleveland is pretty tough defending the pass but downright
awful vs the run. They're allowing 153 yards rushing per game over the
last 3 weeks.
Travis Prentice (Cle) vs Arizona Defense Interesting that this
game features 2 RBs getting a starting opportunity facing a horrible defense.
Arizona is just as weak defending the rush as Cleveland is. Prentice looks
to make the most of his opportunity with RB Errict Rhett out for the year
with a foot injury. It remains to be seen how effective a RB Prentice
will become but the matchup this week is certainly favorable.
Ahman Green / Dorsey Levens (GB) vs Detroit Defense Keep an eye
out to see who looks to gather the bulk of the carries. Whoever carries
the ball should have success as the Lions haven't been able to slow many
people down allowing 148 rushing yards per game over the last 3 games.
The worry of course is that both carry just enough to drag down the other
- a distinct possibility.
Ricky Watters (Sea) vs Carolina Defense Shaun Alexander has shown
some nice flashes but look for coach Mike Holmgren to limit his work this
week with new QB Brock Huard making his first start of the season. Holmgren
will go with the veteran Watters as there will be enough going on for
Huard without needing to worry about the rookie RB. Carolina is awful
against the run allowing an average of 140 yards per game over the last
3.
Charlie Garner (SF) vs Oakland Defense
Garner continues to roll. His Offensive Line remains one of the better
units in all of football. Over the last 3 games, Garner trails only Marshall
Faulk in Fantasy Points per game among RBs. Oakland is vulnerable to the
rush allowing 135 rushing yards per game over their last 2 games.
Mike Anderson (Den) vs San Diego Defense
Once again, it's hard to write it but the San Diego defense makes the
"exploit" column. They've allowed 129 yards rushing per game over the
last 3 weeks. Terrell Davis will reportedly not be a factor in this one
and that's good news for Anderson owner who can count on the big guy.
He's looking more and more like the 2000 version of Olandis Gary.
Eddie George (Ten) vs Cincinnati Defense George is tough against
any defense but he could be huge here. The Titans' WR unit is severely
banged up so I look for Tennessee to lean a little more on George anyway.
Throw in the fact that the Bengals are kittens in defending the run and
you have the makings of a perfect situation.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense
Jamal Lewis / Priest Holmes (Bal) vs Jacksonville Defense
The Jaguars have fallen on defense just like the Chargers. Pittsburgh's
Jerome Bettis ran wild over them last week and this Sunday, they face
another big back in rookie Jamal Lewis. Check his injury status but most
think he'll be good to go. After the Steeler debacle, the Jaguars fall
to #21 in the league when it comes to rushing yards allowed per game.
With QB Tony Banks a little shaky, the Ravens will likely ride on the
shoulders of Lewis.
Tshimanga Biakabutuka (Car) vs Seattle Defense Biakabutuka looks
to get back on track this week and hold onto the football. His 3 fumbles
in week 5 were maddening for coach George Seifert. The Seahawk Defense
isn't anything special and the Panthers should be able to do what they
want in the rushing game. Biakabutuka has 11 catches for 110 yards so
he's also able to hurt folks through the air.
Mike Alstott / Warrick Dunn (TB) vs Minnesota Defense The Vikings
have been susceptible to the rush and I think you'll see Tony Dungy and
the Bucs play a conservative, ball control type game emphasizing Alstott
and Dunn this weekend. The Metrodome is a tough place to play and I don't
think you'll see the Bucs offer too many chances for mistakes by passing.
Tyrone Wheatley (Oak) vs San Francisco Defense Wheatley hasn't
put many yards together but he has found the endzone twice in the past
3 weeks. San Francisco doesn't slow down many folks in the rush or pass
and this week shouldn't be any different. On a negative note, FB Jon Ritchie
is out with an emergency appendectomy. He's replaced by Zack Crocket who's
not nearly as effective as a lead blocker.
Edgerrin James (Ind) vs New England Defense We saw last week that
Edgerrin James is human with Buffalo holding him to 60 yards rushing.
Buffalo's better than New England so I don't see that happening again.
The Patriots rank right in the middle (#16) when it comes to rushing yards
allowed. Linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer will attempt to shadow James but
I'd still think he'll be his effective self.
Ricky Williams (NO) vs Chicago Defense Williams is finally delivering
as we all hoped he would last season. Probably the nicest surprise has
been his pass catching. With TE Cam Cleeland lost for the year, the Saints
have utilized him well out of the backfield receiving the ball. He faces
a Chicago defense that's done less on defense than most had expected.
They're still a decent unit but I like the rested Williams to do some
damage here.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way
Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne (NYG) vs Atlanta Defense
After a huge disappointment for the running game last week vs Tennessee,
we'll see what these guys are made of. I'm officially panicked over Ron
Dayne. At this point, coach Jim Fassell seems to lean entirely on Tiki
Barber if the Giants are trailing. And lately that's been often. On the
flip side, the Falcons aren't as tough on rush defense as the Titans and
the Giants may be able to put themselves in better position.
Sammy Morris/Shawn Bryson/Jonathon Linton (Buf) vs Miami Defense
Miami's known for it's defense but over the last 3 games, they've allowed
121 yards rushing per game. That's more than usual for them. This week
they'll face a 3 headed RB committee that overall may do some damage,
but after failing to establish a lead RB, the Bills seem intent now on
sticking with a committee. I don't see any of the Bill RBs seeing enough
time at this point to make them worthwhile starters.
Kevin Faulk / J.R. Redmond (NE) vs Indianapolis Defense Like a
less potent version of the Rams, the Colts win games outscoring their
opponents with a defense that allows more points and yards than they'd
like. Indy is allowing 133 rushing yards per game on the ground over their
last 2 games so the opportunity for New England is there. The problem
lies in how the carries will be split. Rookie J.R. Redmond looks to cut
into Faulk's numbers and it could be enough to limit both players.
Jamal Anderson (Atl) vs New York Giant Defense
Last week, Tennessee's Eddie George ran over the Giants. Sunday, the Giants
face another big back in Jamal Anderson. Anderson doesn't have the surrounding
cast that George does and he's not in the Eddie George class but it still
could pose problems for a Giant defense that had been very tough against
the run till that game. Atlanta is featuring a reshuffled Offensive Line
that should improve as they get comfortable working together.
Jerome Bettis / Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala (Pit) vs New York Jets Bettis
and Fuamatu-Ma'afala combined for 148 yards rushing and 3 TDs last week
vs Jacksonville. There is no element of surprise with Bettis so it's hard
to call that a fluke. When you play the Steelers, you know you've got
to stop their running game and the Jaguars clearly could not. The Jets
play pretty good rush defense allowing just under 100 yards per game over
their last 2 and they've got an undefeated winning streak on the line.
You can bet they're gearing up to stop the run. We'll see how successful
they are.
James Stewart (Det) vs Green Bay Defense
James Stewart broke loose a bit last week with 123 yards on 20 carries
and he looks to continue the roll against Green Bay. He needs to get in
the endzone to make his FF owners happy. The Packers have played pretty
well against the run lately but Stewart should continue to have success
on the ground. Keep an eye on RB Mario Bates. He snagged a TD last week
although it was a situation with Stewart catching his breath on the sidelines
as opposed to being pulled for a "goalline guy".
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense
James Allen (Chi) vs New Orleans Defense The Saints may have troubles
in other areas, but they've been effective in stopping the rush. James
Allen has made people forget about Curtis Enis. For all the passing Chicago
does, a solid rushing attack seems to be the foundation of their success
and Allen is establishing that. I'm just worried he may have a tough time
against this defense with a week to prepare coming off it's bye.
Stephen Davis (Was) vs Philadelphia Defense Davis is still a solid
starter in your league and a top back but this matchup isn't real favorable.
The Eagles come in with the #8 rush defense over the last 3 weeks. Although
Davis has averaged over 100 yards a 1 TD for the last 3 games so he's
a must start. I just wonder how effective he'll be against an underrated
Eagle defense.
Brian Mitchell (Phi) vs Washington Defense This is one of the better
storylines of the weekend as former Redskin Mitchell replaces the injured
Duce Staley and looks for a little revenge on the team that thought he
was over the hill. Effort usually isn't a problem with guys at this level
so it's hard to say he'll play better because he's trying harder than
normal. They all try hard (except for Randy Moss and he can be unstoppable
at half speed...). Washington plays solid rush defense and while I'll
be pulling for Mitchell, I'm not certain he'll effective.
Robert Smith (Min) vs Tampa Bay Defense In week 1, this looked
like an awful matchup. 6 weeks into the season, it's looking more favorable
for Smith although it'll clearly be a tough game for him. On the upside,
he's running as well and as hard as he's ever run in his career. He looks
like a real RB out there busting it between the tackles and using his
freakish speed to go outside. (On a side note, the Vikings feature three
of the freakiest athletes in the NFL at their position with Robert Smith,
QB Daunte Culpepper, and WR Randy Moss. They just need Jevon Kearse and
Warren Sapp to round out the circus) Bottom line is I like Robert Smith,
but this could be the game he gets held down.
Jermaine Fazande / Terrell Fletcher (SD) vs Denver Defense
Denver is allowing a very tough 75 yards rushing per game over the last
3 games and San Diego has yet to find their stride in the running game.
Throw in the fact that both RBs get significant carries and the likelihood
that San Diego will be trailing and it's not a good combination.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense
Lamar Smith (Mia) vs Buffalo Defense
Smith has been one of those great pickups where you've been able to get
some decent RB production at a bargain price. But I don't see him producing
against a Bill defense that should be fired up after the embarrassing
effort against the Titans. Buffalo NT Ted Washington has a good size advantage
over Center Tim Ruddy and Washington's a scary player. I don't see good
things for Smith here.
Corey Dillon (Cin) vs Tennessee Defense As a Dillon owner, I'm
well aware of what he did last week and I was surely glad to see it. I'll
be shocked if he has similar success this week against the Titans who
totally shut down the Giants last week and one of the better RB games
in the league. Tennessee's defense is playing with confidence and their
corners Samari Rolle and Denard Walker are so strong, they'll likely be
able to commit more personnel to stopping the run.
Curtis Martin (NYJ) vs Pittsburgh Defense I'm a big Curtis Martin
fan and you can see from the cheatsheets rankings that I still think he's
a solid starter. I'm just impressed with this Steeler run defense and
think the Jets will have their work cut out for them on the ground. The
Steelers have allowed only 57 yards per game rushing over the last 3.
I expect Martin to raise that average a bit but Pittsburgh is solid here.
Fred Taylor (Jac) vs Baltimore I may not be the smartest guy in
the world, but I learn. Until further notice, slide your RBs down a good
bit when they play the Ravens. Since week 3, they've allowed 44 yards
per game rushing. Granted, they haven't played great rushing teams in
that stretch but the Baltimore defense is the best against the rush in
the NFL in my opinion. Taylor will likely be a starter in most leagues,
but I'm not excited about his chances this week. His problems come primarily
from the banged up Offensive Line and those issues likely won't resolve
themselves in one week.
