Changing and expanding
the format again this week as I try to include even more players for
you. I’m trying weigh how valuable this expanded format is to folks
so drop me a line at bryant@cheatsheets.net
and tell me what you think of this new style and if you find it useful.
Passing Game Matchups:
Here's how
I see the matchups this week. Please note, see the cheatsheet
for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. Just because
one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily
mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. The matchup info is meant
to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.
Note: I’ve used the player stats sorted by performance over the last three
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by
Mike Hall’s excellent FLM League Management
Software. for more info.
Here we go:
-LOCKS: These
games heavily favor the offense.
St. Louis Passing Game vs Falcon Defense
Like you need me to know you should start your Rams each week. QB Kurt
Warner is on pace to have the greatest season of any QB in the history
of the game. You're watching history unfold here folks, don't miss it.
If Warner can keep it going (and barring injury I don't see why he won't)
this is a guy you'll be impressing / boring your grandkids with someday
recalling the days when you saw him play. Seriously, the Falcons are struggling
on pass defense. Warner threw for over 300 yards in their week 4 game
and I think he'll do it again. Clearly, WRs Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt
are starters and I'd go with Az-Zahir Hakim without much worry as well.
RB Marshall Faulk is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. Like most
other teams, the Falcons just simply don't have enough defensive depth
to adequately cover all the Ram weapons and Warner's a master at finding
the mismatches.
Indianapolis Passing Game vs Seahawk Defense
Bill Belichick and the Patriots held Manning down a bit last week but
I wouldn't bank on him staying down for long. The Seahawks rank #25 in
passing yards allowed per game over the last three weeks. Facing the Colts
won't help that number any. WR Marvin Harrison will draw plenty of attention
from CBs Shawn Springs and Willie Williams but that's nothing new. On
the other side, Terrence Wilkins continues to be an active receiver making
plays all over the field and seeing almost as many passes as Harrison.
WR Jerome Pathon has clearly pulled ahead of E.G. Green and actually had
as many chances as Wilkins Sunday. I'd expect you'll see the TEs Marcus
Pollard and Ken Dilger involved more this week after last week's loss
when they weren't a big part of the plan. Keep an eye on Pollard though
as he could be facing some disciplinary action for missing a practice
Wednesday. RB Edgerrin James has been good but not great and that concerns
folks a bit. He's still running hard though and I think he'll be fine.
As we expected, he was held down in the passing game last week by a New
England team which seems to always limit him receiving. I can see a bounceback
this week from him. James' brother, Cherron James, was shot this week
in Florida and remains hospitalized but is expected to recover.
Green Bay Passing Game vs 49er Defense It used to be that the San Francisco Defense yielded a lot of yards
because they simply weren't very good. They're playing better but still
giving up a lot of yards. What gives? Their explosive offense led by QB
Jeff Garcia is forcing teams to the air in playing catch-up. The 49ers
have scored 96 points over the last three games. This could be another
shootout and you have to like QB Brett Favre in a shootout. The team may
be struggling but Favre has put up top ten numbers over the last three
weeks. WR Antonio Freeman has come back to life. And just in time as WR
Bill Schroeder suffered a hip pointer and is still day to day. Freeman
was the intended target 12 times Sunday. He hadn't seen more than 6 balls
thrown his way in each of the three previous games. WRs Donald Driver
and Charles Lee are both working hard and producing. TE Bubba Franks seems
to be establishing himself as the clear #1 TE over Tyrone Davis who's
been nicked. The Packers miss the receiving ability RB Dorsey Levens brings
to the game but FB William Floyd and RB Ahman Green have both done a nice
job catching the ball. I can foresee another tough day for 49er CBs Monty
Montgomery and Ahmed Plummer.
Chicago Passing Game vs Viking Defense These are two teams who've gone in drastically different directions
since their game one matchup when QB Cade McNown turned in a great performance.
The Vikings defense has gained some confidence since then but they're
still susceptible to giving up the yardage. Let's be honest, Tampa Bay's
Shaun King is not a very good QB yet he ripped the Vikings for 295 yards
Monday. And it should have been more if Jacquez Green hadn't dropped the
Hail Mary at the end. The Bears had a ton of problems Sunday and fortunately,
most can be corrected. The primary culprit was of course the absence of
WR Marcus Robinson who missed the game with an ankle sprain. It was reportedly
serious enough that he didn't even try to test it Sunday for fear of aggravating
it further. Certainly, his availability is a huge boost. At this point,
he's still listed as Questionable so watch this closely. I'm putting the
Bears in this category assuming Robinson will play. The other problem
Sunday was dropped passes and those are something that will likely correct
themselves. WRs Eddie Kennison, Macy Brooks and Marty Booker are tough
to pin down for who will be productive so I'd probably shy away from starting
any of them although Kennison got most of the looks Sunday. But collectively,
they should do fine. TE John Allred was showing nice promise in this offense
before blowing his knee out Sunday. Newcomer Kaseem Sinceno is the TE
for now and could be a super sleeper if you're in a large league with
TEs.
Minnesota Passing Game vs Bear Defense Like the week one matchup, this looks to be a shootout. The smashing
success of QB Daunte Culpepper is the story of the year in my opinion
as he continues to roll over opponents. Denny Green's the genius now but
everyone forgets Culpepper is the QB because Jeff George and Dan Marino
turned Green down. But heh, Dick Vermeil got credit for Warner so who's
to talk? You have to give credit to Offensive Coordinator Sherman Lewis
for a great plan in bringing Culpepper along. It's easy to see his progression
is simply: #1 Receiver, #2 Receiver, Tuck it and run the ball. Each option
has an awfully good chance for a 10 yard gain minimum. WR Randy Moss was
the primary focus for the 2nd week in a row. Culpepper is learning he
can throw the ball to Moss even with double coverage. Cris Carter is still
a solid starter and likely to go off at any time but he does seem to be
the #2 guy. RB Robert Smith is having a great season but he's not a big
factor in the passing game. TE John Davis has been seeing action lately
and he could be a contributor too. Look for the offense to continue it's
roll against the Bears.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
Kansas City Passing Game vs Raider Defense Don't get me wrong, I love 49er QB Jeff Garcia. But the Raiders helped
him look good last week. Kansas City brings a different type of offense
than San Francisco threw at them but I'm thinking they'll be effective.
Charles Woodson is a great cover corner but QB Elvis Grbac has several
weapons. WR Derrick Alexander is a steady contributor while rookie WR
Sylvester Morris (I'm no cat lover but you gotta like the feline first
and last name there) has shown explosive flashes. And of course the big
gun is TE Tony Gonzalez who can destroy the underside of a defense when
he gets cranked up. The Raider LB corps of Elijah Alexander, Greg Biekert,
and William Thomas are solid with Biekert in particular really flying
to the ball. They held down San Francisco TE Greg Clark last week but
he's not in Gonzalez's class (few are). The key to the whole offense in
my opinion is Sylvester Morris as having that 3rd threat makes the defense
play honest instead of loading up on Alexander and Gonzalez. Grbac is
playing as well as he ever has and is finally getting some recognition.
You have to credit coach Gunther Cunningham for realizing they just weren't
getting the job done rushing the ball and loosening the reins on Grbac
a bit. Throw in the fact it's the Chiefs vs Raiders and you have to like
Grbac in Arrowhead.
Tennessee Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense Two rivals meet heading in opposite directions. The Jaguars are scraping
rock bottom while the Titans, while battling injuries, are picking up
right where they left off in 1999. Jacksonville's Pass Defense has been
nothing special allowing 701 yards passing over the last three games.
That puts them at #19 in the league over that span. Titan QB Steve McNair
has played well considering his decimated WR corps. Kevin Dyson is gone,
Carl Pickens is battling a hamstring injury and Yancey Thigpen has forgotten
what a game uniform looks like. On the bright side, WR Derrick Mason has
been extremely effective and looks to be for real. Of course, TE Frank
Wycheck is still McNair's favorite target. He was the target 12 times
Sunday giving him 36 for the season. He's fighting through a sprained
foot but should be fine for Sunday. #2 TE Erron Kinney has been productive
as well. It'll be interesting to see how the TEs fare against the Jaguar
LBs. Kevin Hardy is an excellent player but they need MLB Hardy Nickerson
who's missed time with a hamstring injury. RB Eddie George will give the
Linebackers plenty to worry about and I'm guessing McNair will find Wycheck
like he always does.
Cleveland Passing Game vs Bronco Defense New RB Travis Prentice was the big story last week but he'll likely
find the going significantly more difficult against the Broncos than he
did the Swiss cheese Arizona Defense. Look for the Browns to shift the
emphasis to the passing game this week. While the Broncos are tough against
the run, Denver enters this game giving up an average of 239 passing yards
per game over the last three weeks. QB Tim Couch has averaged 161 yards
per game over that span. Something's gotta give. WR Kevin Johnson is the
#1 according to the depth chart but you wouldn't know it from the boxscores.
He was the intended target only 3 times last week, and only 3 times the
week before that. David Patten and Dennis Northcutt seem to be the unlikely
leaders of the WRs while TE Aaron Shea is threatening to make his presence
felt again. Remember, the Denver LBs gave up huge yardage to TE Tony Gonzalez
and then also let TE Freddie Jones have a big game for San Diego. Cleveland
TE Shea and RB Prentice could do some damage underneath.
San Francisco Passing Game vs Packer Defense QB Jeff Garcia enters this game riding herd over one of the most
productive offenses in the league over the last 3 weeks. They've scored
96 points with 9 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. Like all good teams, they
feature plenty of different weapons. WR Terrell Owens won back a great
many people not only with his spectacular play on the field but with his
sense of humor. After the 1st TD he fake started a midfield run and then
pulled up pointing to the crowd and shaking his head "Uh-uh" Owens is
the clear favorite of Jeff Garcia. He had a whopping 17 passes thrown
his way Sunday and has yet to go a game this season where he was the target
less than 10 times. WR Jerry Rice continues to be the best #2 WR in the
game and Tai Streets has shown some nice flashes. And you can't say enough
good things about RB Charlie Garner. His pass catching abilities are earning
him "poor man's Marshall Faulk" comparisons although in truth, he's outplayed
Faulk (and everyone else) the last few weeks. TE Greg Clark and FB Fred
Beasley haven't contributed much of late, but they're both solid players
too. Although they're concerned if Clark can stay healthy. The Packers
play pretty good pass defense but I don't think they've got the depth
to handle all the 49er weapons.
Buffalo Passing Game vs Charger Defense QB Rob Johnson is reportedly ok after a hit to his elbow knocked
him out of the game. Remember, Johnson exiting a game with injury is his
normal way to finish a game... Seriously, he looks to be ok and he faces
a Charger Defense this week that's been unable to stop anyone from throwing
the ball. Over the last three games, San Diego has yielded 273 yards per
game in passing yards. That'll heal your elbow in a hurry. Johnson's primary
guy is WR Eric Moulds by a wide margin. The San Diego corners are very
vulnerable with DeRon Jenkins hobbled and Tony Darden making his 2nd career
start and Moulds could have a field day if he holds onto the ball. WR
Jeremy McDaniel has pretty much assumed the #2 role over the very disappointing
Peerless Price who's certainly not lived up to his name. TE Jay Reimersma
still looks to be a couple of weeks from being ready but RBs Sammy Morris
and Shawn Bryson both catch the ball well.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.
Atlanta Passing Game vs Ram Defense
The Rams enter week 7 with the worst pass defense in the league over their
last 2 games. This game would be in the "lock" column if the Falcon passing
game was in better shape. It had been bad enough with QB Chris Chandler
at the helm but now it looks like it will be Danny Kanell leading the
team. (Although Chandler says he'll play) You're a braver soul than I
if you get excited about Danny Kannell. In fact, the word I hear is the
Atlanta coaching staff gave serious thought to letting #3 man Doug Johnson
give it a try but feel he's just not ready yet. RB Jamal Anderson has
been ineffective and that's allowed the defenses to tee off on Chandler.
WRs Terance Mathis, Shawn Jefferson and Tim Dwight are solid players but
they're only half the equation. I could see TE Reggie Kelly having a decent
game as Kanell leans on him for the shorter routes.
Dallas Passing Game vs Giant Defense The Giants have been struggling against the pass but they're improving.
CB Jason Sehorn in particular has been playing great football lately.
They'll face a Dallas team struggling to find its way. QB Troy Aikman
should have all the cobwebs shaken out by now but New York plays pretty
good defense. The Cowboys are a tiny bit like the Titans in that they
have a QB who doesn't go deep often, WRs a bit dinged up, and a very good
receiving TE. Tennessee had a great game throwing to TEs Frank Wycheck
and Erron Kinney and I can see Dallas working the underside of the Defense
with TE Jackie Harris with success. David LaFleur can play the Erron Kinney
role blocking primarily but also catching the ball. WRs James McNight
and Rocket Ismail haven't been all that effective and they certainly won't
have any height advantage over Sehorn and Dave Thomas. RBs Emmitt Smith
and Chris Warren should be factors receiving the ball out of the backfield.
New England Passing Game vs Jets Defense A perfect example of looking beyond the numbers. The Jets look to
be invincible against the pass only allowing 128 passing yards per game
over the last three weeks. First of all, they've had a bye in that time
so it's just two games worth of data. And those two games came against
the powerhouse passing attacks of Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. In reality,
they're a pretty good defense. New England QB Drew Bledsoe heads into
this game on one of his notorious hot streaks which not coincidently coincides
with a two game Patriot winning streak. He's settled into a nice groove
zeroing in on WRs Terry Glenn and Troy Brown with Glenn the clear #1.
TE Eric Bjornson is also starting to see some passes thrown his way.
Carolina Passing Game vs Saint Defense While we weren't looking, the Saints have actually turned into a
pretty good football team. The offense is clicking but the real key seems
to be a rejuvenated defense. They're very stingy against the run and rank
#13 against the pass over the last two games. Although to be fair, Chicago
and Philadelphia aren't in the same class with Carolina. QB Steve Beuerlein
has been good but not great. But remember, it wasn't until the later half
of last year that he really turned it on. For a while there, he was one
bad game away from being benched for Jeff Lewis. I'm saying that to say
you shouldn't worry about Beuerlein. He'll be fine. His WRs though are
hobbled. Muhsin Muhammad missed most of last week's game with a recurring
hamstring injury. My favorite Panther WR, Donald Hayes, will also miss
most of practice this week after injuring his ankle in Sunday's game.
Both should be able to go Sunday but keep an eye on it. Of course, TE
Wesley Walls is a prime target, especially in the redzone. FB William
Floyd and RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka together caught 7 passes for 62 yards
Sunday.
Philadelphia Passing Game vs Cardinal Defense
This one is a tough call as I'm anxious to see how the team responds knowing
RB Duce Staley is out for the year. The load falls squarely on the shoulders
of young QB Donovan McNabb. It's a tough thing to ask of the 2nd year
man, but he'll give it all he's got. RB Darnell Autry will do his best
to act like a #1 RB. (Pun intended - Autry retired in 1998 to pursue an
acting career. The acting didn't pan out much better than his early work
with the Bears) Seriously, he's the guy. RB Amp Lee was signed to help
fill the void and it'll be interesting to see how he does. Lee's a great
receiver but has never done much rushing the ball. It's easy to get excited
with the "new guy" hype like we do with rookies but you have to remember
Lee wasn't deemed good enough to land a job with any of the 31 NFL teams
1 week ago... RB / KR Brian Mitchell will spell Autry as a change of pace
back but that's about it. He showed last week he's not feature back material.
WRs Charles Johnson and Torrance Small could have solid days but understand
the defenses have changed with Staley out of the lineup. Johnson is the
favored target of McNabb among the WRs. TE Chad Lewis continues to make
great strides. He caught 5 balls for 77 yards Sunday and had a couple
more thrown his way.
Denver Passing Game vs Brown Defense The Cleveland Pass defense has played much better than many expected
this year. They currently rank #13 in passing yards allowed. That may
be a little misleading however as many teams choose to run the ball instead
vs their awful rush defense. Just about every coach will limit the pass
if they're having great success running the ball. Still yet, the Broncos
have a banged up RB corps with Terrell Davis likely to miss a couple more
weeks, Olandis Gary out for the season, and KaRon Coleman nursing a sprained
foot. Just for good measure, FB Howard Griffith will miss a couple of
weeks after surgery Tuesday. Mike Anderson is healthy and Coleman should
be able to go Sunday. Given the RB injuries, look for Brian Griese to
continue airing the ball out. Cleveland CBs Daylon McCutcheon and Corey
Fuller are improved but still can be beaten. Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey
both are both solid choices. McCaffrey's been more productive for TDs
while Smith has been the yardage king there. TE Dwayne Carswell splits
too much time with Byron Chamberlain to make either guy a dependable player
most weeks.
Washington Passing Game vs Baltimore Defense This one should be interesting. Baltimore's pass defense has slipped
a bit over the last three weeks ranking them #10 in passing yards allowed
per game over that time. The opponents were Jacksonville, Cleveland and
Cincinnati so it's not like they had the Rams thrown into that average.
On the flip side, Washington QB Brad Johnson looks to be gaining some
confidence throwing for 289 yards against a tough Philadelphia Defense.
WR Albert Connell had his shouting match with the coaches on the sideline
but settled down and was productive in the 2nd half. He's clearly the
best receiver on the team. With WR Irving Fryar to miss a couple of weeks,
James Thrash is elevated to #2 and he will produce. His 2 carries for
40 yards last week were a nice bonus. He got tons of passes thrown his
way after Fryar's injury. Andre Reed continues to defy age and is a solid
#3 guy if your leagues go that deep. TE Stephen Alexander is frustrating
as he shares the shorter routes with FB Larry Centers making it tough
to count on him each week.
Oakland Passing Game vs Chief Defense Oakland's coming off that incredible overtime win against San Francisco
and the passing game finally started clicking after some early rough going.
QB Rich Gannon continues to confound defenses with his mobility. He's
deceptively quick and elusive. Consider this: He outrushed RBs Edgerrin
James (75 yards) and Stephen Davis (84 yards) last Sunday. He's one of
those guys that you don't see how good he really is until you run his
stats through your scoring system and see the Fantasy Points. The Chiefs
defense has a high ranking over their last two games but part of that
is padded with a game against Seattle thrown in. Still though, they're
a solid unit and the Raiders will find the going tougher than they did
against San Francisco. WR Tim Brown is his favorite target and he's playing
at an amazing level. James Jett and Andre Rison seem to be #2 and #2a.
The only real disappointment in the passing game is the continued disappearance
of TE Ricky Dudley. If you're into history, Dudley did have his best game
of 1999 vs the Chiefs catching 2 TDs. RBs Tyrone Wheatley and Napoleon
Kaufman aren't prime targets but they catch the ball pretty well.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
New York Jets Passing Game vs Patriot Defense It's interesting to me in that if you listen to folks around the
league who know what they're talking about, they'll tell you Bill Belichick
is the scariest coach an opposing QB can face. I can see that as he sure
seemed to send Drew Bledsoe into a tailspin when Belichick was with the
Jets. But the numbers don't seem to bear this out. Over the last three
games, New England ranks #28 in passing yards allowed per game. (Mia /
Den / Ind) As it usually does, I'd guess the truth lies somewhere in between.
Belichick brings an attacking scheme that causes plenty of trouble for
QBs. All in all, a tough situation for either Vinny Testeverde or Ray
Lucas if Vinny can't go. WR Wayne Chrebet has plenty of heart but he's
not been effective lately. He'll be blanketed by either Antonio Langham
or Ty Law depending on what side of the field he starts from. Even so,
expect him to see plenty of balls as he was the target 12 times last week.
The Jets have been running rookie Laveranues Coles as the #2 WR in some
sets and he should benefit from the experience. His gain is coming at
the expense of Dedric Ward. TE Anthony Becht is becoming more comfortable
but the Patriots did an excellent job of limiting the Colt TEs last week.
Workhorse RB Curtis Martin should continue to catch the ball well. FB
Richie Anderson had a great game against the Pats in week two with 6 receptions
for 89 yards.
New Orleans Passing Game vs Panther Defense Over their last two games, the Panthers rate #2 in the league in passing
yards allowed. Granted, Seattle and Oakland aren't passing juggernauts
but that's still pretty strong defense. QB Jeff Blake leads a Saints team
brimming with new found confidence after a road win in Chicago. Panther
corners Eric Davis and Doug Evans will likely be on the island often since
a back like Ricky Williams demands safety help. Speaking of Williams,
he's the teams 2nd leading receiver with 24 receptions. He's becoming
one of the better all around backs this year and his effectiveness on
the ground has been the key to opening things up downfield for Blake and
#1 WR Joe Horn. He's been the target of 44 passes over the last four games.
Horn could do well again this week. Jake Reed is battling an ankle and
knee problem and will likely be replaced by WR Keith Poole this week.
And maybe for good if Poole plays like I think he will. Horn's still the
guy but Poole is a player I like. TE Andrew Glover finally got in on some
action making the most of his one catch turning it into a 29 yard TD.
Look for them to try to get Glover even more involved as the TE in this
offense should be a key receiver.
Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Bengal Defense It's hard to get fired up about Kent Graham but the Steelers are
rolling. It's pure Steeler football with heavy doses of smash mouth running
by Jerome Bettis and Chris Fuamatu-Ma-afala which sets up the occasional
pass. Graham is set to start. I won't get started on the lunacy of the
"can't lose your job to injury" rant but if it were me, I'd go with the
hot hand in Stewart. I'd guess you'll probably see him at some point anyway.
Graham has looked as bad as I can remember a QB looking at times. Fortunately,
with their style of offense, you don't need a lot from the QB. I'm encouraged
by the play of WR Plaxico Burress who seems to be getting more comfortable
in the offense. He's a marginal starter in larger leagues but he is getting
more looks. Troy Edwards and Hines Ward will continue their epic battle
for the #2 spot but it probably doesn't matter in your league. RB Jerome
Bettis has only averaged one catch per game over the last three weeks
and TE Mark Bruener is a non factor.
Arizona Passing Game vs Eagle Defense The Eagles continue to play solid pass defense only allowing an average
of 184 passing yards per game over the last three weeks which included
games against Washington, Atlanta and New Orleans. QB Jake Plummer did
have 2 TDs last week but they came on only 17 completions for 171 yards.
He's nearing uncharted waters for him as he approaches the 1:1 TD to Interception
ratio. I'd steer clear. For WRs, David Boston yielded the reins to Frank
Sanders who scored both TDs. That's great news for him as he had always
earned the rap of a guy who could make tough catches but not get in the
endzone. David Boston is learning to handle the extra attention the #1
WR job brings with it. Boston seems to be getting the more consistent
looks as he was the target 8, 8, and 9 times over the last three games.
Sanders on the other hand is a little more up and down. He was the target
10, 4, 11, and 7 times over the last 4 games. RB Michael Pittman will
keep the starting RB job over Thomas Jones for another week. Jones is
the better receiver. Neither TE Terry Hardy or Chris Gedney are productive.
Baltimore Passing Game vs Redskin Defense After QB Tony Banks' 5 TD game a few weeks ago, we all wondered if
he was for real. He answered definitively over the next few games. Over
the last 3 games, Banks has thrown for 2 TDs and 519 yards. That won't
carry many Fantasy Teams. I don't expect it to get any better against
a Washington team that's playing with a bit of confidence after some narrow
victories. Much has been made of Coach Brian Billick's transformation
from a passing guru to a running guru but the mark of all good coaches
is making the most of what you have to work with and for now, the Ravens
are running the ball better than they're throwing it. Hard to imagine
Coach Billick could be so insensitive with regard to your Fantasy Team
but that's how it is. For WRs, Qadry Ismail is getting all the looks.
#2 WR Travis Taylor looks like a rookie learning the pro game and is actually
seeing the ball less and less. He was the intended target 8 times in week
4, 7 times in week 5 and only 4 times last week. He'll be fine but I'm
not counting on too much for him this year. The Redskins feature 3 of
the better corners in the game in Champ Bailey, Deion Sanders and Darrell
Green. Bailey in particular has emerged as a special player and they could
give the WRs trouble. TE Shannon Sharpe has been uncharacteristically
quiet (in the boxscores at least) and that's a big concern. I'm looking
forward to seeing him work the middle against big hitter LaVar Arrington.
When it's all said and done, I don't expect the Ravens to enjoy any more
success throwing the ball then they've been having lately.
Seattle Passing Game vs Colt Defense New Seahawk QB Brock Huard surprised me by not throwing any interceptions.
Of course he didn't throw any TDs either. And he looked less than comfortable
in the pocket. That no TD streak could stay intact against a Colt Defense
that's struggled at times but plays hard. They only rank around the middle
of the pack in pass defense over the last three weeks (# 16) but they
play an aggressive scheme that should give the young Huard trouble. The
Seahawks may do well, but I think it'll be on the strength of their rushing
game with RBs Ricky Watters and Shaun Alexander. WR Darrell Jackson has
established himself as the best WR on the team although Sean Dawkins may
have some motivation playing against his former team. Derrick Mayes is
a total bust. He dislocated a finger in pregame and reportedly was in
a heated argument with Coach Mike Holmgren before the game. That's not
a good sign. TE Christian Fauria did show some signs of life catching
3 passes for 24 yards Sunday.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Cincinnati Passing Game vs Steeler Defense That Steeler bandwagon is getting a little crowded and rightly so.
They're playing inspired football lately. The key has been their defense
which has only allowed 39 points over the last three games. When you hold
the other team to an average of 13 points, all sorts of good things start
to happen. QB Akili Smith looks like a guy with one good college season
who was drafted way too early after getting some last minute hype before
the draft. That's because he was. It's not all his fault though as both
his WRs are rookies and struggling to learn the game as they're being
thrown to the wolves. WR Peter Warrick has skills but the Bengals seem
deathly afraid to throw him the ball. He hasn't been the target of more
than 7 passes in a game since week 3. He was the intended target a whopping
4 times in Sunday's game. #2 WR Ron Duggans is over his head. RB Corey
Dillon doesn't catch the ball much and TE Tony McGee reverted back to
his old ways with 1 catch for 4 yards after a nice tease in week 5.
New York Giants Passing Game vs Cowboy Defense
The Dallas secondary takes a good bit of criticism but the numbers show
it may not be deserved. Over the last 2 games they've held the high powered
passing attacks of Carolina and San Francisco to an average of 166 yards
per game. I like 49er Jeff Garcia and Panther Steve Beuerlein a good bit
more than I do Giant QB Kerry Collins. Collins just hasn't produced like
we thought he could early on in the season. Ike Hilliard and Amani Toomer
are both solid WRs but it's been tough to pick who'll post the best stats
each week. Toomer hasn't been catching enough of them but he's getting
plenty of balls thrown his way. He had 6 in Sunday's game and 10 the week
before. Hilliard is seeing fewer chances but making more of them. RB Tiki
Barber is a threat out of the backfield receiving the ball but the Cowboys
are an athletic and quick unit that may negate some of Barber's skills.
TE Pete Mitchell continues to be a huge disappointment. With a week off
to prepare, I can see Dallas putting the clamps on the New York passing
game.
San Diego Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense This could be ugly. The Chargers enter the game limping badly in
all aspects of their game and face a Bills team that's not happy after
a spanking by Miami. Let's put it this way, Reggie Jones is the Chargers
best WR right now. QB Jim Harbaugh is putting in gutsy performances but
it's clear his better days are behind him. The trouble of course is that
with QBs Moses Moreno and Ryan Leaf, Coach Mike Riley has to wonder if
his youngsters have any better days ahead of them. Tough call. Coach Riley
is now saying he'll start Harbaugh but Moreno will play the 2nd quarter.
ohhhkay... As I said, Reggie Jones burst on the scene last week for 7
receptions and 101 yards filling in for the terminally nicked Curtis Conway.
Jones had 5 more passes thrown his way that weren't completed. In my opinion,
he's a better WR than a healthy Conway. Jeff Graham is the #1 WR on the
depth charts but he's too inconsistent. He did have as many balls thrown
his way as did Reggie Jones. The best receiver on the team remains TE
Freddie Jones who actually isn't a bad play. He sees double coverage regularly
and still manages to produce. Overall, I'd expect to see some frustrations
vented by the Bills in this one.
Jacksonville Passing Game vs Titan Defense
Six months ago, Monday Night Football had to be drooling at the matchup
between these rivals. Tennessee's done it's part in living up to the billing
but the Jaguars have fallen off the charts. QB Mark Brunell was deep enough
in Coach Tom Coughlin's doghouse that it was late Monday afternoon before
Coughlin named him the starter for this week. Tough guys like the Colonel
are renowned for their discipline when they're winning. But things change
in a hurry when they start to go bad. In my opinion, Coughlin is on the
verge of pulling out the Captain Queeg marbles and losing control of this
team. Naming Jamie Martin as the QB probably would have done it. Although
it's hard to blame him for thinking about it. Brunell's been nothing short
of awful throwing 2 TDs and 5 Interceptions over the last 3 games. Not
to mention fumbling three times Sunday. If you're a regular reader, you
know we've been down on him for a while but we didn't think he'd struggle
this much. WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell both are getting lots
of passes thrown their way but rookie R. Jay Soward has looked terrible
lately. RB Fred Taylor is some help catching the ball but he's not enough.
TE Kyle Brady is only a starter if you're in a huge league. The Titans
will be pumped at home in Adelphia Stadium where they've never lost and
I'd look for more trouble from the Jaguar offense.
Rushing Game Matchups:
-LOCKS: These games heavily
favor the Offense.
New York Giant's Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs Cowboys Defense They've had a week off but don't forget the monster games this defense
has given up to Eagle RB Duce Staley and San Francisco's Charlie Garner.
There are two schools of thought. On one hand, you can make a case for
Barber being effective as he runs with a similar style to Charlie Garner.
On the other hand, the Dallas DL is a little undersized but quick so you
can argue they'll be effective in taking away the cutback of Barber which
would make Dayne the better choice. Until the Cowboys go a few games without
giving up 200+ yards to the RB, I personally would start either if I had
them.
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Bengals Defense I can hear ESPN's Chris Berman already calling the highlights for
this one. Boom...Boom...Boom...BOOM. The Bengals have allowed 10 TDs and
an average of 179 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Pittsburgh
will lineup and do what they do best - Let Bettis romp. After much preseason
talk detailing his demise, Bettis is running hard and looks like he's
having a ball. I'd expect more of the same against a Bengal team that's
struggling to stop anyone. If you're thin at RB, I can see one of my favorite
players Chris Fuamatu-Ma-afala putting up some numbers in this one too.
Denver's Mike Anderson vs Browns Defense Coach Mike Shanahan pulled Anderson last week in favor of the quicker
KaRon Coleman. Coleman injured his foot in the game although he's healed
faster than expected and looks to be available Sunday. I don't think they'll
need him as Anderson should be able to run over the hapless Browns. QB
Brian Griese will keep the safeties honest and Anderson's straight ahead
downhill running style should be just fine. I'm hearing the Broncos would
like to rest RB Terrell Davis both this week and next. They have a bye
in week 9 so that's three more full weeks to get his ankle healthy. That's
terrible news for Davis owners playing a 14 game "regular" FF season but
it makes sense for the Broncos.
Seattle's Ricky Watters / Shaun Alexander vs Colts Defense I think you'll see strong games from the Seattle RBs as a ripple
effect from QB Brock Huard making his second start. The Colts have been
awful defending the rush and I'd say Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren will
likely take as much pressure as possible of the young Huard who struggled
last week. Watters is an exceptional receiver but I'd be surprised if
he doesn't do most of his damage on the ground. My friend and Seahawk
local, Ian Allan from Fantasy Index Magazine http://www.fantasyindex.com
told me that Philadelphia tried hard to trade for Ricky Watters. The interesting
part is that the Seahawks reportedly were ready to let Watters go but
the cap details couldn't be worked out. That's a telling statement about
how much faith they have in Shaun Alexander. Both could do well against
the Colts.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs Falcons Defense
The Rams are likely chomping at the bit after a long week off. Their next
victims look to be the Falcons. Faulk and company should go off again.
Atlanta ranks in the lower third of all teams in rushing yards allowed
per game over the last few weeks and they just don't have enough defenders
to match up with the Rams (who does?) With the Falcons QB Chris Chandler
likely out, I don't see a shootout and the Rams may settle into a more
conservative ground game once the game is out of reach.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense
Philadelphia's Darnell Autry / Brian Mitchell vs Cardinal Defense
The Arizona rush defense is awful. I like Travis Prentice but you know
something is wrong when a rookie #2 RB from the Browns rips you for 97
yards and 3 TDs. I think Autry will be the feature back there. Amp Lee
was signed but I can't see him being much factor for this game. If you
scooped up Autry, now's your time to play him if you're ever going to.
If he struggles against this team, he's in for a tough time later.
Tennessee's Eddie George vs Jaguars Defense It's personal between these two teams. I believe the Titans don't
just want to win, they want to win smashing the football down Jacksonville's
throat and I think that's what you'll see Monday night. Partly because
they want to. Partly because they can against a suspect Jaguar run defense.
And partly because the Titan WR corps is decimated with injuries. Jacksonville
has allowed an average of 119 rushing yards over the last three games.
New Orleans Ricky Williams vs Panthers Defense This is the season many (especially Mike Ditka!) had hoped Ricky
could deliver last season. Better late than never I suppose as he's been
an outstanding RB so far. The Panthers have a tough time stopping folks
on the ground and I don't see them suddenly getting it together against
the bruising Williams. The big bonus for him this season has been Williams'
pass receiving. He ranks 2nd on the team and has been extremely effective
in that area. Carolina will likely creep Strong Safety Mike Minter up
towards the line for run support but that's nothing new for Williams.
With Jeff Blake throwing the ball deep to WR Joe Horn, most defenses are
leery of committing too much to the run.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs Seahawks Defense Seattle has yielded an average of 117 rushing yards per game over
the last 3 games. This could be just what James needs to push him back
to the elite level at which he's been used to playing. James has been
good lately, but not great. On a very positive note, his half brother,
Cherron James, who was shot in South Florida earlier this week looks like
he's going to be ok. That has to be a relief although Coach Jim Mora said
he thought the issue had been blown "out of proportion". James has been
held under 100 yards for the last four games. I wouldn't bet on him making
it to five.
Green Bay's Ahman Green/Dorsey Levens/De'Mond Parker vs 49'er Defense Dorsey Levens could rest another game although Coach Mike Sherman
said he'd go if able. Parker has been taking snaps with the 2nd team and
could be activated off the PUP list. San Francisco's rush defense isn't
much better than their pass defense. Over the last three games, they're
allowing an average of 122 rushing yards per game including 164 to Oakland
Sunday. Green totaled 145 yards last week (69 rushing / 76 receiving)
and he should continue to make the most of his opportunity. 49er DT Junior
Bryant is on Injured Reserve and that's a big plus for Green Bay. Both
defensive secondaries in this game are suspect and it should be a high
scoring affair for whichever RB sees the carries.
Minnesota's Robert Smith vs Bear Defense Smith has been on a roll this season. With the Fred Taylor injuries
and all the other players blowing out ACLs like candles, it's easy to
forget we used to give Smith a hard time for not being durable. Truth
is, he's running as hard as he ever has in his career. He's all over the
field running inside, outside and catching the ball. All he needs is a
burst past the LBs. Once he's there, the jets are on and it's over. The
Bears couldn't hold him down in week 1 when he ran for 109 yards. Minnesota
seems to have improved since then and the Bears have gotten worse..
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way
Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley / Napoleon Kaufman vs Chiefs Defense
Over their last two games vs the Seahawks and Broncos, Kansas City yielded
an average of 167 yards rushing per game. That's a lot for a defense with
a reputation for being tough. Look for the Raider RBs to try and continue
the trend. Neither Wheatley (15 carries for 50 yards) nor Kaufman (6 carries
for 29 yards) were especially sharp last week against San Francisco. If
you're a history guy, Wheatley averaged a very strong 4.8 yards per carry
against the Chiefs in 1999.
Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Philadelphia Defense Pittman ran effectively last week after wresting the starting RB
job from rookie Thomas Jones. Pittman totaled 107 yards on 16 carries.
The only problem is that it was against the Browns and this will be against
the Eagles. Cleveland ranks #27 in the league for rushing yards per game
over the last three weeks while Philadelphia is a much more respectable
#16 over that span. Look for Eagle DTs Hollis Thomas and Corey Simon to
create some problems for Pittman who likes to run between the tackles.
But then again, a 6.1 yard per carry average over the last 3 games is
hard to ignore.
San Francisco's Charlie Garner vs Green Bay Defense Green Bay comes into this game ranked #10 in the league over the
last three weeks in rushing yards allowed per game. But they haven't faced
a back like Charlie Garner yet. Packer DTs Santana Dotson and Russell
Maryland will need to concentrate on stuffing the run inside to be effective.
The 49'ers boast a potent passing game that forces the Safeties to play
honest and that might mean trouble.
New England's J.R. Redmond / Kevin Faulk vs Jets Defense
The Jets have been vulnerable against the rush allowing 156 rushing yards
per game in their last 2 games. The trouble with New England is deciding
which back will get the carries. Redmond is quickly working his way into
the rotation. He's attractive as he's bigger and stronger than Faulk,
who's more suited to a 3rd down back. That might work for the real NFL,
but it's death for Fantasy RBs. It's just a hunch, but I'm thinking Coach
Bill Belichick doesn't care much about your Fantasy Team. Until something
shakes out more definitive, I'd probably shy away from both guys even
though it's a favorable matchup for whoever is running the ball.
Buffalo's Sammy Morris / Jonathon Linton / Shawn Bryson vs Charger
Defenses This one's a shame as the Chargers have been giving up lots of yards
on the ground. I feel comfortable the Bills as a team will roll up big
rushing yards. The trouble is they'll likely be spread amongst all three
of these guys. San Diego comes into this game allowing a startling (for
them) 122 rushing yards per game over the last three. Unless you play
"team RB" in your league, I'd look elsewhere. On a side note, I still
see Shawn Bryson emerging there eventually.
Chicago's James Allen vs Viking Defense
Way back before Bears Coach Dick Jauron started listening to us and booted
Curtis Enis to FB, James Allen gained 60 yards on just 9 carries against
the Vikings in the season opener. As the featured RB, he could do even
better. Although on the other hand, the Vikings are playing with more
confidence now and are only allowing 96 rushing yards per game in their
last two contests. This one truly could go either way.
Dallas' Emmitt Smith vs Giants Defense
The Giants play decent rush defense but I like Smith in this game after
a bye week. Giant DT Keith Hamilton is a player and could pose some problems
for Smith. But Smith's a guy who can adapt to what the defenses give him.
With Troy Aikman not the Troy Aikman of old, Smith realizes it's his time
to shoulder even more of the load. Over the last two games, he's running
hard averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis / Priest Holmes vs Redskin Defense Defense The Redskins are only allowing 81 rushing yards per game
over the last three games. Baltimore's running game looked invincible
in week 5 but struggled last week against Jacksonville. And Washington
is playing better run defense than Jacksonville these days. The Ravens
OL is aching with Center Jeff Mitchell listed as doubtful with a bad ankle
and OT Jonathon Ogden questionable with an ankle also. RB Jamal Lewis
has size and speed but he's still learning the skills it takes to succeed
at this level.
New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs Patriot Defense The Pats have faced three tough rushing teams the last three weeks
in Indianapolis, Denver and Miami. They've only allowed an average of
87 yards rushing per game in those games. That's strong. Curtis Martin
is one of my favorite players and he's still a starter, but I don't like
the matchup here for Martin on the road. Remember, Martin was held to
47 yards rushing in their week 2 matchup. If anything, the Patriots are
playing better now than they were then.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs Titan Defense The Titans have allowed an average of just 89 rushing yards per game
over the last 3 weeks. I was particularly impressed with how they completely
shut down the Giant running game which had been dominating until they
hit the Titans brick wall. Jacksonville still sorely misses Leon Searcy
on the offensive line and I hear whispers that Fred Taylor is still not
100%. A huge problem for their rushing game is that fact their defense
has allowed a whopping 82 points over the last three games and the Jags
are forced to throw the ball more than they'd like.
San Diego's Jermaine Fazande vs Buffalo Defense Fazande has finally earned back the starting slot we projected for
him this Summer but I'm not too excited about him facing a tough Bill
defense. Buffalo is only allowing 100 yards per game rushing over their
last two games which ranks them #12 in the league over that span. San
Diego has an inconsistent passing game that takes little heat off Fazande
running the ball.
Kansas City's Tony Richardson/ Kimble Anders/Frank Moreau/Mike Cloud
/ Marcus Allen vs Raider Defense
Just seeing if you were paying attention there with Marcus Allen. But
with all those RBs likely to get a shot, Allen's got as good a chance
as the other guys of posting points this weekend. The Raiders are pretty
tough against the run. Throw in the fact that KC is running the messiest
RB by Committee in recent memory and I'd shy away from all these guys.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense
Atlanta's Jamal Anderson vs Ram Defense
St. Louis may be giving up lots of passing yards but they're extremely
tough against the run only allowing 58 yards per game over their last
two. As is the case with their pass defense, a good bit of that is due
to the Rams offense forcing teams to play catch-up. It's not so much the
Rams are tough against the run as much as it is the Rams offense forces
teams to abandon their running game. Doesn't really matter either way
as the bottom line is that teams don't run on the Rams. Especially teams
struggling as mightily to run the ball as Atlanta is. Anderson is averaging
a measly 2.2 yards per carry over the last three games and that won't
get him anywhere Sunday.
Washington's Stephen Davis vs Baltimore Defense I like Stephen Davis and he's a starter in your league but this matchup
is awful. The Ravens have been shutting people down. They've allowed a
total of 10 points over the last three weeks. That's not right. San Diego
averages giving up 10 points per quarter. It's true that Jacksonville,
Cleveland and Cincinnati are not good teams but that's still strong. They've
held those teams to an average of 41 yards rushing per game. Davis is
playing well averaging 3.9 yards per carry over the last three games but
he's about to hit a snag against Baltimore.
Cleveland's Travis Prentice vs Denver I like Travis Prentice and I hope you picked him up last week as
we recommended. But you'd better not be expecting 3 TDs again as he faces
a real rush defense this week instead of the Swiss Cheese Cardinal unit
he ran through last Sunday. Denver is holding teams down to 56 yards rushing
per game over the last three and I don't see Prentice doing much better
than that.
Carolina's Tshimanga Biakabutuka vs Saints Defense Saint DTs Norman Hand and La'Roi Glover are tough and the Panthers
will have their work cut out for them here. New Orleans is only allowing
69 rushing yards per game over the last two games. I like Biakabutuka
but this is an awful matchup for him this week. He did have his first
100 yard game last week but I'd look elsewhere if you've got a solid RB
to play.
Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Steeler Defense I see everyone hyped over Dillon this week. You have to understand
80 of his 95 yards came on the one big run. Take that away and he was
the same old Dillon with 15 yards on 14 rushes. I'm not big on pulling
plays out of a guy's stats but this one is merited I think. He was one
tackle away from another awful day. The Steelers have been playing a smothering
rush defense and I see Dillon struggling this week in a big way.
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