Before we jump into the matchups to Exploit and Avoid for this week,
lemme throw out what may be the best advice you get from me today: I'm
guessing you can hardly wait for Sunday. Me too. But I'll also take
a wild guess and say the other people in your life, wife, girlfriend,
significant other, kids etc may be just a tad less fanatical than you
are about this whole deal. It's a long season. I can promise you -everything-
will go a LOT smoother if you take Saturday and do something fun with
them. And mean it. I'll have the Saturday Night Special News and Notes
in your mailbox for you late. You're not going to miss anything. Trust
me on this...
With that sage bit of advice out of the way, let's get to this week's
Matchups to Exploit and Matchups to Avoid. Remember, what I'm looking
at here are matchups that will likely have a player posting better or
worse numbers than you might normally expect from him. Not every Matchup
to Exploit is a starter in your league and not every Matchup to Avoid
is a bench player for you. It's just something to think about as you
make those all important roster decisions.
Here we go.
QB Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better
than expected numbers this week.
MIN Daunte Culpepper vs CHI
This should be a shootout as two young QBs take the reins of hot rod offenses.
Both Randy Moss and Cris Carter are accustomed to ripping the Bears. Carter
was 9 for 141 and 3 TDs in his last game against Chicago and Moss was
the target an incredible 21 times catching 12 passes for 204 yards in
the same game. (Jeff George threw for 374 yards that day if you're interested)
While I don't see Culpepper going quite -that- wild, this is a perfect
game for him to open his first regular season game with. Chicago added
CB Thomas Smith from Buffalo but paired with CB Walt Harris, they're far
from invincible. And both are 5' 11". We'll finally get to answer the
question of how Culpepper will do against "real" defenses. I think he'll
do fine. Some people like to throw out the "vanilla preseason defense"
line when explaining Culpepper's preseason success. I've got news for
you, he looked better than most other QBs this Summer and they were going
against "vanilla" defenses too. I've got him as the #4 QB this week.
ATL Chris Chandler vs SF
Even without Jamal Anderson to take heat off the passing game, Chris Chandler
torched the 49ers for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in the season finale of 1999.
San Francisco has added some help on defense but not enough to make a
difference this early in the season. Jamal Anderson may not post great
numbers but his impact on Chandler and the WRs will be considerable. Unlike
last year, teams will be forced to respect the run which of course makes
things just that much easier for the veteran Chandler.
WAS Brad Johnson vs CAR The Panthers made a great deal of noise adding Reggie White, Chuck
Smith and Eric Swann but it remains to be seen how these guys work together.
The bigger question is how much aging vets like White and Swann have left
in the tank. The Panther linebackers aren't anything special and the secondary
with CBs Doug Evans, Jimmy Hitchcock and Eric Davis can be thrown on.
Looking to pick up where they left off last year, look for the Redskins
to come out with guns blazing as Stephen Davis chews up chunks of yards
between Johnson airing it out.
CHI Cade McNown vs MIN
McNown will be providing fireworks from the other side of the fence and
may be able to match MIN QB Culpepper. Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton
has added even more wrinkles to the already dazzling Bear scheme and McNown
reportedly has a solid grasp of what he needs to do. The Bears are loaded
with more quality WRs than most teams have cheerleaders and McNown will
likely use several of them. You can sum up the Viking corners like this:
Kansas City deemed Chris Dishman not worthy of a roster spot when they
cut him a few days ago. He's good enough to be the best Corner for Minnesota...
The other corner is Robert Tate, the former WR who's better catching passes
than defending them. Safeties Robert Griffith and Orlando Thomas can't
do everything and I'd be surprised if McNown doesn't light things up.
QB Matchups To Avoid:
These players
will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
ARZ Jake Plummer vs NYG
When the Cardinal Management decided to cut center Mike Devlin, Plummer
responded with "It's like management is playing a practical joke". That's
not the response I'm looking for in my starting QB. Many feel the 1999
season was an aberration and Plummer will be back. I'm more of the opinion
that his stellar second half of 1998 was the aberration and I'm willing
to accept the notion that Plummer just isn't all that good. Losing WR
Rob Moore certainly won't help and neither will a fired up Giant Defense
with Michael Strahan, Cedric Jones, Keith Hamilton and Christian Peter
putting pressure on a suspect OL. CBs Dave Thomas and Jason Sehorn should
be able to handle Cardinal WRs Frank Sanders, Dave Boston and MarTay Jenkins.
GB Brett Favre vs NYJ
Here's the first example of a guy with a bad matchup that's probably still
a starter in your league. It all depends on your roster though. We currently
have Favre as the #10 QB this week. Without Dorsey Levens in the backfield,
the Packer QB will likely have to shoulder the load and you just don't
know how Favre's elbow will respond. If you saw him in the news conference
Wednesday, he looked very nervous as he talked about having to "think"
about every throw as opposed to just throwing. Our Cheatsheets.net Physician
Dr. C.J. Coshal advises me that the tendonitis in Favre's elbow could
have a dramatic effect on Favre's accuracy in addition to his velocity.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see backup Matt Hasselbeck under center,
especially if the Jets jump to an early lead forcing Green Bay to the
air.
CLE Tim Couch vs JAX I don't understand Tim Couch's regression from last year. Reportedly,
last year he was primarily out there reacting to the defense and winging
it and now that he's trying to think his way through things, he's having
trouble. I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere but not for me. Clearly
though, he's struggled mightily this Summer. On the upside, he should
get WR Kevin Johnson back after he's battled a nagging Hamstring injury.
The bad news is that he's facing an angry Jacksonville defense that brings
a zone blitz package as aggressive as any team in the league. In the balance
of things, that more than overrides getting KJ back. Couch was sacked
56 times last season in 1999. I don't see that trend reversing itself
this weekend.
NE Drew Bledsoe vs TB
Drew Bledsoe is looking to bounce back from a forgettable 1999 but this
isn't the game to do it. Tampa Bay brings a fierce pass rush from one
of the best defenses in the league. With an unproven rushing game led
by Kevin Faulk and a pretty awful Offensive Line, Bledsoe may have a hard
time remaining vertical Sunday. I've been high on WR Terry Glenn mainly
because he's the only viable target. But against the Super Bowl minded
Bucs, I don't like his chances in this game.
RB Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better than expected numbers this week.
NYJ Curtis Martin vs GB
Curtis Martin doesn't garner the hype, but he's quietly the Jet's best
player. He's had a terrific preseason and I expect him to run wild against
an overmatched Green Bay Defensive Line. The Jets front five anchored
by Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae have become one of the better units in
the league. QB Vinny Testeverde's arm will keep the Packer defense honest.
It's a defensive team that struggled this Summer. Jason Fabini has moved
from right tackle to left tackle and he's a powerful run blocker. New
York clearly wins this battle up front
SF Charlie Garner vs ATL The Falcon Defensive Line lost both defensive ends from 1999 and
are definitely vulnerable. San Francisco center Chris Dalman is out for
the year but coach Steve Mariucci reportedly is fine with new center Jeremy
Newberry. Last year, this line led the league in several rushing categories
and should be able to excel once again. Garner's strength is running outside
the tackles and with new defensive ends, he ought to find plenty of room.
Once he's on the corner, look out.
NYG Ron Dayne vs ARZ
It's taking a little while, but Ron Dayne is adjusting to the speed of
the game at this level. He looked markedly better in his last preseason
game. This week, he gets to face the porous Arizona defense that ranked
30th against the run in 1999. Andre Wadsworth is out with a knee injury
which further weakens an already shaky unit. Much noise has been made
about Tiki Barber splitting time with Dayne but I don't see it. Barber
himself has said Dayne is the feature back and that he's going to "be
a terror" once he learns the proper angles for hitting the holes. Coach
Jim Fassel has talked of getting Barber more touches but folks have to
remember Barber's a vital part of the passing game (66 receptions in 1999)
He'll be even more important with Sean Bennett out for the year. Let Barber
do his thing and watch Dayne have a nice debut.
DET James Stewart vs NO Whether QB Charlie Batch starts or not, the Lions will be looking
for Stewart to take the heat off their QB. Stewart certainly appears to
be up to the task after a solid preseason. The Lions feature a massive
Offensive Line that will have it's hands full with Saint DL Norman Hand
and a pretty good cast up front. Their Linebackers are weak though and
if Stewart can slide through the hole, he could do some damage. Mario
Bates was signed after being released by Arizona but I see him clearly
as a backup. Bates was a goalline specialist in Arizona and while Coach
Bobby Ross has shown he doesn't mind pulling a back for a short yardage
guy, the team is reportedly enamored with Stewart's leaping ability and
nose for the endzone. Look for him to get 25+ touches and be very effective.
RB Matchups To Avoid:
These players will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
OAK Tyrone Wheatley vs SD I'm one that's not sold the 1999 resurrection of Tyrone Wheatly is
for real. Real or not, he'll have a stout test right out of the blocks
with a tough and aggressive Charger Defense coached by Coordinator Joe
Pascale and led by LB Junior Seau. In two meetings last year, San Diego
held Wheatley to 72 rushing yards on 34 carries. That won't win many games
for you.
NE Kevin Faulk vs TB Kevin Faulk played well enough this Summer to earn the #1 RB job.
That title grants him the pleasure of facing Warren Sapp and a Tampa Bay
Defense that ranked 5th in the league last year against the rush. Faulk
is also likely to lose significant carries to J.R. Redmond which will
further dilute his numbers. Faulk's size remains a question mark and he'll
certainly be tested by the physical Tampa Defense.
SEA Ricky Watters vs MIA The Dolphins may have trouble scoring points but their defense is
still a strong point. Defensive Linemen Daryl Gardener and Tim Bowens
could be in for a big day against a Seahawk OL that's yet to prove themselves.
Floyd Wedderburn and Todd Weiner are an improvement according to Coach
Holmgren but Miami has plans to prove otherwise. Watters will likely lose
up to 35% of his carries to rookie Shaun Alexander which is great if you're
a Seattle fan but if you're a Watters owner--not so good. The last time
the Miami defense was on the field for a meaningful game, Jimmy Johnson
and Dan Marino were there as they got shellacked by Jacksonville. You
can bet the defense will be looking to erase some of that nightmare this
weekend.
PIT Jerome Bettis vs BAL The Raven Defense ranked #2 last year against the run. And how much
fear does Kent Graham put into a defense? Baltimore is generating a great
deal of hype and they'll look to make a statement early. Look for them
to overload the line until Graham shows he can beat them with the pass.
Bettis has been slowed by a sore knee so there's some question there.
But truthfully, his backup Richard Huntley won't fare any better. Remember
Bettis on the old Ram teams where he couldn't ever get going? That's what
I see for this weekend.
WR Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better than expected numbers this week.
BAL Qadry Ismail vs PIT Qadry Ismail had a pretty nice season in one game last year against
the Steelers as he went for 258 yards on just 6 receptions. Oh yeah, and
3 TDs. Don't expect a repeat of that but he obviously feels comfortable
lining up against the black and gold. The Ravens expect to run plenty
of 2 TE sets with Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates and this creates some
coverage problems for the safeties that may benefit Ismail. Rookie Travis
Taylor will likely start on the other side so you'd have to think Ismail
will be by far the primary target among the WRs.
CHI Marcus Robinson / Bobby Engram vs MIN Marcus Robinson smoked the Vikings for 238 yards on 15 catches and
2 TDs last year. The Viking secondary doesn't seem to be any better and
you could easily make the point that the Chicago passing game has improved
with QB Cade McNown logging more time under center. The Vikings don't
have a player that can contain Robinson so you'll see them roll the coverage
to help. When that happens, look for Bobby Engram to make them pay.
MIN Randy Moss / Cris Carter vs CHI ChicagoCBs Walt Harris and Thomas Smith will simply be overmatched
trying to defend the Viking passing attack. Both Moss and Carter had great
games against the Bears last season. With new QB Daunte Culpepper throwing
the ball, they should continue that trend. The Vikings feature a well
balanced offense with Robert Smith rushing the ball and this should help
open up the passing game.
TEN Carl Pickens vs BUF
Carl Pickens left his reported attitude in Cincinnati as he's been a model
citizen in Nashville. He gives the Titans the big play WR they've been
lacking, especially in the red zone. He and QB Steve McNair already have
the fade route down. Look for Pickens to use his size at 6' 2" to dominate
the smaller corners like Antione Winfield who's only 5' 8" and Ken Irvin
at 5' 10".
WR Matchups To Avoid:
These players will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
CAR Muhsin Muhammad vs WAS Without Patrick Jeffers, this isn't the same 1999 Carolina team.
And with the offseason additions, this is far from the 1999 Redskin Defense.
Deion Sanders and Champ Bailey now make up one of the better CB tandems
in the league. The ageless Darrell Green is still a big factor as well.
QB Steve Beuerlein is returning from 5 offseason surgeries and has been
rumored to be at less than 100% arm strength. He played sparingly in the
preseason and did not throw the ball downfield, instead opting for short
passes in the flat. Muhammad is likely a starter still in most leagues
but I don't like his chances going against this defense.
SEA Derrick Mayes vs MIA Like Muhammad, Mayes is another quality WR that draws a tough defense
this week. Sam Madison can be a dominating coverman and should be able
to take Mayes out of the game. Patrick Surtain will handle the other CB
job. This spells trouble for everyone as QB Jon Kitna heavily relies on
Mayes, sometimes to the point of locking in on him.
CLE Kevin Johnson vs JAX It's obvious that QB Tim Couch missed Kevin Johnson in the lineup
this Summer. KJ should be back in the lineup but be very careful here.
If it's not bad enough you have to worry about the hamstring acting up,
he also has to face one of the tougher defenses in the league. Cornerbacks
Fernando Bryant and Aaron Beasley are solid and they'll have plenty of
help. Dom Capers will surely bring the house to rattle Tim Couch so he'll
likely be pressed for time.
NO Joe Horn / Jake Reed vs DET
The West Coast Offense being implemented in New Orleans is not learned
overnight. The Saints showed in the preseason that there were plenty of
wrinkles to iron out and I'd think it'll take a game or two before the
team starts to gel. The Lions have an aggressive defensive front and the
corners are pretty tough in Bryant Westbrook and Terry Fair. These guys
may come on strong, but I'm not excited about them for this week.
TE Matchups To Exploit:
These players will likely post better than expected numbers this week.
BAL Shannon Sharpe vs PIT
Shannon Sharpe is eager to prove to the world he's still a player. Coach
Brian Billick has to be excited about having a TE of his caliber. Sharpe
has the size to create trouble for the Steeler LBs as he roams the middle.
Like a domino effect, the trouble for the Steeler Linebackers carries
over to trouble for the safeties which means WRs Ismail and Taylor can
create some problems.
TEN Frank Wycheck vs BUF
The Bills are reportedly set to matchup young LB Keith Newman on TE Frank
Wycheck. If it comes down this way, it'll be a clear mismatch as the veteran
picks up where he left off tormenting the Bills. QB Steve McNair looks
to go downfield more this year but it's clear that he loves throwing the
ball to Wycheck.
TE Matchups To Avoid:
These players will likely post worse than expected numbers this week.
NO Andrew Glover vs DET
Glover is still questionable and may not play. He's battled a sore knee
for most of the Summer and can't seem to shake it. If he goes, he might
be effective, but at this point, it's not worth the risk until you know
for certain.
DAL David LaFluer vs PHI
LaFluer's got several problems here. First of all, he's supposedly going
to be named the starter but he's struggling with a groin injury that doesn't
seem to be responding very well to treatment. Secondly, it looks as if
Jackie Harris has taken over the pass catching role. And thirdly, the
Eagles are much tougher than many expect and they don't give up the middle
of the field easily.
Good Luck in Exploiting and Avoiding these Matchups!
Joe Bryant is the owner
of www.cheatsheets.net. More
of his work can be found there along with all the information and tools
you’ll need to Dominate Your Draft.
