In addition to participating in the Fantasy Index Experts Poll for
2000, I’m pleased to have an article published in this year’s magazine.
My friend and Index Publisher, Ian Allan, was kind enough to let
me offer a sneak preview of the article as the magazine hits the
newsstands.
Enjoy!
Joe
Take a stroll through the NFL apparel at the local sports store
and check out the jersey numbers. Lots of 12s, maybe an 8, a few
scattered 80s and probably enough different 32s to outfit a team.
It's not easy, however, to find a jersey with any number in the
60s or 70s. The offensive linemen who wear those numerals, simply
don't have the star appeal of the other skill positions.
But ask any NFL GM to name the best and most valuable players in
the league and names like Tony Boselli, Orlando Pace, Larry Allen
and Jonathan Ogden will be thrown out as often as the higher profile
quarterbacks and running backs. Knowledgeable fans know it too.
A telling moment occurred at this year's NFL draft when Washington's
new left tackle, Chris Samuels, made his way over to some screaming
fans. The Washington faithful went berserk as Samuels repeatedly
bellowed, "There's a new Hog in the house!" Given what he'll mean
to the team, their enthusiasm was justified.
While it's not necessary to wear a pig snout or wig, fantasy football
fans should take offensive linemen just as seriously.
The trouble with rating offensive lineman is the lack of statistical
justification. One can easily back up the statement that Kurt Warner
was the best quarterback in football last year. Just look at the
numbers. But it's a far more difficult task providing statistical
"proof" that Kevin Mawae is the best center in the AFC.
There are no hard numbers showing which linemen are the best at
their craft. It's largely a matter of opinion. Fantasy leaguers
can use, however, the next best thing: secondary statistics. One
can get a fairly accurate assessment of an offensive lineman by
looking at the numbers posted by the runners and quarterbacks their
blocking for. If Jacksonville has the best line, it stands to reason
that they should finish near the top in rushing yards per game and
yards per carry. The same holds for pass protection, where the best
lines, at least in theory, should allow the fewest sacks. Given
the competitive nature of fantasy football, where everyone is looking
for an edge - even a small edge - these are stats worth analyzing.
The following is a glance at each team's offensive line, along with
how they performed last year in the measuring stick areas of yards
per carry, rushing yards per game, sacks allowed and pass attempts
per sack. Also included is an analysis of each line -- an attempt
to decipher if they'll play better or worse this season, based on
their free agent pickups and whatnot. When looking for sleepers
among the skill position players, a good place to start looking
is in the same place the NFL GM's do: in the trenches.
Franchise Lines
These units are the best of the best and should consistently be
a boost for players lining up with them:
1. DALLAS COWBOYS
1999: 6th in rushing (128 yards per game), 8th in rushing average
(4.2 yards per carry), 2nd in sacks allowed (24), 2nd in pass attempts
per sack (21.1).
Anchored by Pro Bowlers Larry Allen at guard and Erik Williams at
tackle, the line is one of the most solid in the league. Many feel
Allen is the best offensive lineman in the game. Guard Everett McIver
is gone but will be adequately replaced by Solomon Page, a second-rounder
in 1999. From a pass blocking perspective, only Indianapolis does
a better job of protecting the quarterback.
2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
1999: 1st in rushing (131), 11th in rushing average (4.2), 11th
in sacks (36), 13th in attempts per sack (14.9).
This is a team built around running the ball. They may not have
the league leading yards per carry numbers but they lead where it
counts, in actual yards gained. Tackles Leon Searcy and Tony Boselli
are both Pro Bowlers. The rest of the unit is less distinguished.
Guard Ben Coleman may not be back and that's a concern. One thing
that likely won't change is Tom Coughlin's mindset, so look for
plenty of rushing.
3. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1999: 8th in rushing (127), 4th in rushing average (4.4), 6th in
sacks (31), 7th in attempts per sack (17.3).
It seems unfair that Chris Samuels, the best offensive lineman in
the draft, went to already powerful Washington, providing yet another
building block in what could be the league's most explosive offense.
Samuels should move ahead of veteran Andy Heck sometime in September.
Guards Tre' Johnson and Keith Sims are two of the best in the game.
Center Cory Raymer does everything he's asked, and right tackle
Jon Jansen is solid. It's a cohesive unit that returns intact --
even without Samuels.
4. ST. LOUIS RAMS
1999: 5th in rushing (129), 2nd in rushing average (4.8), 9th in
sacks (34), 11th in pass attempts per sack (15.6).
Tackle Orlando Pace gets the press, and deservedly so, but guards
Tom Nutten and Adam Timmerman are rock solid as well. Right tackle
Fred Miller is gone to Tennessee and center Mark Gruttadauria went
to Arizona. Andy McCollum will likely start at center, and some
in St. Louis feel he'll be an upgrade there with his size advantage.
Free agent Steve Everitt from Philadelphia is also a possibility.
Ryan Tucker was re-signed and will replace Miller. The loss of two
starters hurts, but St. Louis looks to have adequately filled the
holes.
Blue Chippers
These lines are solid units and should provide above average production
for their skill position teammates:
5. NEW YORK JETS
11th in rushing (123), 12th in rushing average (4.1), 14th in sacks
(37), 18th in attempts per sack (12.9).
When Vinny Testaverde returns this season, it will not only be interesting
to see how well he comes back from his Achilles injury, it will
be interesting to see what effect his presence has on the offensive
line. Conventional wisdom says the rushing game will benefit, but
the loss of Keyshawn Johnson must also be factored. Left tackle
Jumbo Elliott finally called it a career. The Jets feel comfortable
replacing him with Ryan Young or Jason Fabini, who shared duties
at right tackle last season. The remaining four players return and
are anchored by Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae who's one of the game's
best.
6. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
1999: 19th in rushing (104), 16th in rushing average (4.0), 1st
in sacks (14), 1st in attempts per sack (39.1).
The pass protection numbers are incredible. Not only are they both
the best in the league, but best in the league by a wide margin.
In fact, they're nearly twice as good as the 2nd team in both categories.
The complete offensive line returns in 2000 for Peyton Manning,
Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison. The line and those skill position
players are young, so one could only expect improvement if that's
possible. As is often the case with dominant pass blockers, they
weren't as effective rushing the ball although certainly adequate
as a team. James excelled individually rushing the ball, but that
was because the team's other backs combined for only 15 attempts
all year.
7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
1999: 3rd in rushing (130), 1st in rushing average (5.0), 7th in
sacks (34), 9th in pass attempts per sack (16.5).
Quick, name a lineman for the 49ers, statistically one of the best
lines in the league last season. Tough for many fans to do. Yet
center Chris Dalman, guards Ray Brown and Jeremy Newberry, and tackles
Dave Fiore and Derrick Deese paved the way for one of the best rushing
attacks in 1999. The pass protection numbers are solid especially
considering the team's unstable quarterback situation. All five
starters return to what should once again be a very formidable front
line.
8. CINCINNATI BENGALS
1999: 7th in rushing (128), 3rd in rushing average (4.7), 23rd in
sacks (49), 23rd in attempts per sack (11.2).
Even with a suspect passing attack, this unsung line paved the way
for solid rushing numbers last season. So much for the Ricky Williams
excuses in New Orleans. The good news for those with Corey Dillon
(or perhaps Curtis Keaton) is that the line returns intact (although
guard Matt O'Dwyer has been suspended for the first two games for
his role in a bar fight last summer). Guard Scott Rehberg comes
over from Cleveland where he started 10 games in 1999 and should
provide nice depth. As Akili Smith matures, you'll see the sack
numbers improve.
9. TENNESSEE TITANS
1999: 14th in rushing (113), 18th in rushing average (3.9), 3rd
in sacks (25), 3rd in attempts per sack (21.1).
Passing yards are lower than expected (14th) considering the pass
protection. Although anyone watching the Super Bowl saw it takes
much more than beating the offensive lineman to sack Steve McNair.
Right tackle Jon Runyan left for Philadelphia, but the Titans are
comfortable with free agent Fred Miller from the Rams, who's not
quite as good but cheaper.
10. DENVER BRONCOS
1999: 12th in rushing (117), 14th in rushing average (4.0), 8th
in sacks (34), 10th in attempts per sack (16.3).
Scheme matters. Even after losing Terrell Davis, the Broncos were
able to finish near the top 10 in every offensive line category.
Broncos runners averaged 4.4 yards per carry in their last eight
games -- they got better as the season progressed. Veteran guard
Mark Schlereth is coming off his 26th career surgery and appears
ready for one more season. Led by center Tom Nalen with 3 consecutive
Pro Bowl appearances, the unit is back for 2000 intact and ready
to pick up where it left off -- with a healthy Davis.
11. BUFFALO BILLS
1999: 9th in rushing (127), 17th in rushing average (3.9), 5th in
sacks (27), 5th in attempts per sacks (19.0).
Even though the Bills were right around the league norm in rushing
average, their total yards rushing shows their commitment to the
run. Left tackle John Fina re-signed. Center Dusty Ziegler moved
to the Giants but he's not considered a great loss -- Jerry Ostroski
took the starting center job from Ziegler last year.
12. CHICAGO BEARS
1999: 26th in rushing (86), 24th in rushing average (3.5), 15th
in sacks (38), 6th in attempts per sack (18.0).
The rushing numbers may not be there from last year, but all signs
point to an improved Bear offense. Cade McNown should not only benefit
from a year of experience, but also from a line that returns intact.
Both should flourish in offensive coordinator Gary Crowton's imaginative
system. If Curtis Enis can fulfill the expectations he's set for
himself, the team's rushing numbers will climb. A good and deep
offensive line that's getting better.
13. OAKLAND RAIDERS
1999: 4th in rushing (130), 6th in rushing average (4.3), 24th in
sacks (49), 25th in attempts per sack (10.6).
The Raiders bring back their entire line from last year where they
posted impressive rushing numbers. Center Barrett Robbins is one
of the best in the league at his position and veteran guard Steve
Wisniewski is back for one more tour. The unit may be helped by
the addition of tackle Matt Stinchcomb, the first rounder who missed
his rookie year with a shoulder injury.
Red Chippers
These lines fall right along the average in the NFL. They won't
make poor players good, but they won't drag down solid skill position
guys either:
14. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
1999: 15th in rushing (111), 22nd in rushing average (3.5), 19th
in sacks (42), 24th in attempts per sack (10.6).
Adding one Pro Bowl lineman is a huge plus. Adding two -- stolen
from a division rival -- is a home run. Former Vikings Randall McDaniel
and Jeff Christy should bolster a line that underperformed. Christy
replaces Pro Bowl center Tony Mayberry, so that won't be a huge
upgrade but the coaches love his athleticism. McDaniel now relies
on finesse, but he's an impact player. Second round guard Cosey
Coleman of Tennessee could prove to be a steal.
15. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
1999: 2nd in rushing (130), 15th in rushing average (4.0), 4th in
sacks (26), 4th in attempts per sack (19.3).
Similar profile to Jacksonville, with a mediocre rushing average
but lots of actual yards. Interesting in that even with superb pass
protection, the Chiefs only rank 22nd in passing yardage. Center
Tim Grunhard has been the anchor there for 10 years and finally
made a Pro Bowl last year. The other positions are less settled.
Guards Will Shields (contract) and Dave Szott (blood clots) both
have serious questions about returning. Brenden Stai and Jeff Blackshear,
former starters in Pittsburgh and Baltimore respectively, were added
to the mix for insurance. Former first-rounder John Tait takes over
for veteran journeyman Glenn Parker, who signed with the Giants.
16. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
1999: 17th in rushing (109), 9th in rushing average (4.1), 26th
in sacks (49), 28th in attempts per sack (9.7).
Those are some pretty solid rushing numbers for a team that finished
5-11. The big offseason addition was tackle Jon Runyan from Tennessee.
With Tra Thomas at the other tackle, that's a pretty good pair.
Center Steve Everitt was released over salary differences; fourth-year
player Bubba Miller takes over. Miller has only started 7 games
(3 at center) but he's thought to be a heady player.
17. GREEN BAY PACKERS
1999: 21st in rushing (94), 19th in rushing average (3.9), 10th
in sacks (36), 8th in attempts per sack (16.9).
This line is a good but not great unit. Key offseason move was re-signing
center Frank Winters, a solid pro. Ross Verba slides over to guard
from left tackle; the early returns on this move at minicamps were
favorable. The raw pass protection numbers were solid, but the NFL
doesn't list "QB Thumb Smashes" as an official stat.
18. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
1999: 18th in rushing (106), 21st in rushing average (3.7), 17th
in sacks (41), 17th in attempts per sack (13.5).
New Orleans optimistically entered the 1999 season with an improved
line and rushing savior Ricky Williams. Obviously, the results failed
to match the expectations, although they did improve from 27th in
yards per carry in 1998. A similar improvement this season, which
is feasible if Williams can stay healthy, would place them in the
upper half of the league. Perennial Pro Bowler Willie Roaf is solid
at left tackle but is unhappy in the Crescent City. Center Jerry
Fontenot will start if Wally Williams can't return from his neck
injury.
19. NEW YORK GIANTS
1999: 24th in rushing (88), 27th in rushing average (3.3), 18th
in sacks (42), 15th in attempts per sack (14.4).
The Giants feel the problems with their running game last year were
due more to their backs than blockers. Hence the selection of 259-pound
Ron Dayne. Dusty Zeigler from Buffalo replaces Brian Williams at
center. Zeigler, 26, brings youth to the position, but he lost his
job to Jerry Ostroski in Buffalo last season, so there are questions
there. The Browns and Giants essentially swapped tackles, with Roman
Oben signing with Cleveland and New York signing Lomas Brown, a
swap that could come back to haunt the Giants.
20. DETROIT LIONS
1999: 27th in rushing (79), 23rd in rushing average (3.5), 31st
in sacks (64), 30th in attempts per sack (8.7).
Looking at the numbers above, it's easy to see why RB James Stewart
demanded such a pay raise coming from one of the best lines in Jacksonville.
The line did the "anti-gel", playing progressively worse over the
second half of the season. The Lions drafted help in the first round
with gigantic tackle Stockar McDougle (love that name) but it remains
to be seen how he adapts to the game at this level. The line is
big, for Lions fans, let's hope it gets better.
Scrubs
These lines are below average in run blocking and pass protection:
21. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1999: 10th in rushing (124), 13th in rushing average (4.0), 13th
in sacks (37), 14th in attempts per sack (14.5).
Given the struggles at quarterback last year, the numbers were respectable.
This is a line in decline, however. Brenden Stai is gone in a cap
move. He'll be replaced by one of two bargain-type free agents --
Rich Tylski (Jacksonville) or Tom Myslinski (Dallas). Myslinski
can also fill in at center if Dermontti Dawson's injury problems
continue.
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS
1999: 16th in rushing (110), 10th in rushing average (4.1), 28th
in sacks (56), 27th in attempts per sack (9.8).
Pro Bowler Jonathon Odgen is the star of the line. The rest of the
group is only average -- though Baltimore managed some good offensive
numbers last year, particularly in the second half of the season.
Center Jeff Mitchell is effective, and second-year guard Edwin Mulitalo
played well after taking over at midseason. The sacks numbers were
poor last year because Stoney Case hung on to the ball way too long
when he was starting.
23. ATLANTA FALCONS
1999: 30th in rushing (75), 29th in rushing average (3.2), 25th
in sacks (49), 26th in attempts per sack (10.4).
This line clearly improved as last season progressed, even if it
was from awful to average. In their last eight games, the Falcons
averaged 3.7 yards per carry -- up a full yard from the first half
of the season. In part because Chris Chandler hangs on to the ball
too long, he takes a beating. Robbie Tobeck is gone to Seattle,
so Calvin Collins slides from guard to center. Guard Anthony Redmon
comes over from Carolina where he started 15 games last year. Everyone
knows a healthy Jamal Anderson is what this line needs more than
anything to get those yards per carry numbers up.
24. CAROLINA PANTHERS
1999: 20th in rushing (95), 5th in rushing average (4.3), 27th in
sacks (51), 22nd in attempts per sack (11.3).
The Panthers ranked near the top of the league in yards per carry
because Tshimanga Biakabutuka broke a bunch of long runs. This isn't
a consistent knock-'em-off-the-line group. Carolina allows way too
many sacks, making Steve Beuerlein a likely candidate to get hurt.
Guard Anthony Redmon was released in a salary cap move.
25. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
1999: 28th in rushing (78), 31st in rushing average (3.0), 22nd
in sacks (46), 19th in attempts per sack (12.7).
The Chargers have pumped plenty of money into this unit in recent
years. This year, they'll stand pat. Left tackle John Jackson was
solid last year, but he's getting up there. Center Roman Fortin
and right tackle Vaughn Parker are certainly more than adequate.
Aaron Taylor retired, but he won't be missed; he was about as effective
as a welcome mat last season, allowing 11.5 sacks -- the most in
the league by a guard.
26. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
1999: 25th in rushing (88), 25th in rushing average (3.4), 16th
in sacks (38), 16th in attempts per sack (13.8).
The Seahawks are fine at left tackle and left guard, where they
have Pro Bowler Walter Jones and solid Pete Kendall, but there could
be major problems at center, right guard and right tackle. Free
agent Robbie Tobeck, signed to replace Chris Gray at center, is
out for the year with a knee injury. Right guard Brian Habib was
released. Seattle badly needs first-rounder Chris McIntosh to be
able to step in soon at right tackle, which was a virtual turnstile
to the quarterback last season.
27. ARIZONA CARDINALS
1999: 29th in rushing (75), 30th in rushing average (3.1), 21st
in sacks (45), 20th in attempts per sack (12.4).
Center Mike Gruttadauria from St. Louis lacks great size but is
more athletic than the departed Aaron Graham. His Super Bowl experience
should be a valuable influence. Tackle L.J. Shelton also should
be a good one after struggling as a rookie, so perhaps this traditionally
weak line can surprisingly be average this season. Although they're
moving in the right direction, Michael Pittman and Thomas Jones
have their work cut out for them.
Waterboys
These units should consistently struggle.
28. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
1999: 13th in rushing (113), 7th in rushing average (4.3), 20th
in sacks (43), 21st in attempts per sack (12.3).
In the Pro Bowl, 40 percent of the NFC's starting offensive line
wore purple helmets. But now both Jeff Christy and Randall McDaniel
are with the division-rival Bucs. The Vikes think McDaniel is done
-- they released him -- but the free agent defection of Christy
will hurt. The Vikings hope Matt Birk, until now a tackle, can fill
the void. Birk has never started a game. Ouch. Corbin Lacina, a
former starter in Buffalo and Carolina, replaces McDaniel.
29. MIAMI DOLPHINS
1999: 22nd in rushing (91), 28th in rushing average (3.3), 12th
in sacks (37), 12th in attempts per sack (15.9).
For a team that focused on running the ball, the rushing numbers
are awfully weak. Heath Irwin from New England will start at right
guard, where the Dolphins used Kevin Donnalley and Kevin Gogan last
year. The Dolphins haven't been able to run effective for literally
decades, and without Dan Marino's quick release (which saved them
a lot of sacks), they could be exposed as one of the worst lines
in the league.
30. CLEVELAND BROWNS
1999: 31st in rushing (72), 20th in rushing average (3.7), 30th
in sacks (60), 31st in attempts per sack (8.2).
Realize what those sack numbers mean. Tim Couch was sacked one time
for every 8 times he attempted a pass. For comparison, Peyton Manning
was sacked once for every 39 times he attempted a pass. Manning
is going entire games without a sack and Couch is happy to go a
series without one. But that should improve. Couch admits he hung
onto the ball too long often last year, and the Browns changed the
key left tackle position by replacing Lomas Brown with Roman Oben
of the Giants. Right tackle Orlando Brown, however, is still battling
vision problems from the infamous penalty flag incident last season.
If Brown can't go, the Browns will try to scrape by with Steve Zahursky.
Cleveland also lost guard Scott Rehberg to the Bengals.
31. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
1999: 23rd in rushing (89), 26th in rushing average (3.4), 29th
in sacks (56), 29th in attempts per sack (9.6).
New England's offseason line was pitiful last year, so Bill Belichick
went for a major shakeup. He released tackles Bruce Armstrong and
Zefross Moss (though Armstrong may be re-signed), and he let underachieving
guard Heath Irwin sign with the Dolphins. That leaves only center
Damien Woody and right guard Todd Rucci from last season. Will the
new guys be any better? Probably not. Free agent Grant Williams
couldn't get it done in Seattle, and the Patriots will feel fortunate
if they can get solid play from either holdover Edward Ellis or
second-rounder Adrian Klemm.
Joe Bryant is the owner of footballguys.com.
More of his work can be found there along with all the information
and tools you’ll need to Dominate Your Draft.
