Let's jump right to the Matchups to Avoid and Exploit.
Passing Game Matchups:
Here's how
I see the matchups this week. Please note, see the cheatsheet
for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. Just because
one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily
mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. The matchup info is meant
to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.
Note: I’ve used the player stats sorted by performance over the last three
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by
Mike Hall’s excellent FLM League Management
Software. for more info.
Here we go:
-LOCKS: These
games heavily favor the offense.
Oakland Passing Game vs Charger Defense
Along with Daunte Culpepper and Jeff Garcia, Rich Gannon tops the QB charts
for play over the last three weeks. We’ve been hyping the former Blue
Hen and he keeps delivering for us. This week shouldn’t be any different
as they face a San Diego defense that’s struggled against the pass. Granted,
the Rams and Broncos are figured into that average but Gannon should have
his way. Even though Charger CB DeRon Jenkins is healthier with a week
to rest his hamstring, he’ll have his hands more than full with WR Tim
Brown who’s playing as well as ever. James Jett and Andre Rison continue
to provide relief from the other side although both are marginal starters
in all but large leagues. Between Brown, Rison and Jett, that’s 33 years
of NFL experience. TE Ricky Dudley showed signs of life Sunday as he was
the target of 4 passes. RB Tyrone Wheatley catches the ball very well
too.
San Francisco Passing Game vs Rams Defense
Over the last three games, the Rams have given up an average of 298 passing
yards. You can justify some of that by the fact St. Louis forces teams
to throw the ball with the Ram’s high powered offense. They do yield very
few rushing yards which would support that thought. But you don’t really
care. All you care about is starting QB Jeff Garcia and his WRs Terrell
Owens and Jerry Rice. You start Garcia and Owens against anyone but this
is definitely a week you go with Rice if you normally are on the fence
with him. If you’re in a pinch, I’d even consider giving WR Tai Streets
a shot. RB Charlie Garner had more receiving yardage than most WRs last
week and he’ll continue to be great. The only guy that’s not carrying
his load is TE Greg Clark and JJ Stokes. Clark stays hurt and Stokes frankly
isn’t any good. The Rams will likely be pumped up as they rally behind
new QB Trent Green. Bud Carson has come out of retirement to help get
the defense in shape. But I still like this game to be a shootout.
St. Louis Passing Game vs 49er Defense These two teams are very similar in many ways. Very good QBs with
a talented crew of WRs. RBs who catch the ball exceptionally well. Weak
TEs and a defense that can’t stop anyone. It’s the perfect formula for
ideal Fantasy Football Players. The difference is that St. Louis is a
little better in most of those areas plus they’re a lot better in stopping
the run. But the 49ers are not that far away from being a good football
team. This week, smart owners across the land are happily plunking down
QB Trent Green into their starting lineups. As well they should. Coach
Mike Martz has said he won’t be scaling back the offense for Green and
has stated he feels that with Green under center, the offense runs pretty
much like it does with Warner in there. Green looked great last week and
he’d not taken any snaps with the first team guys. Same situation as San
Francisco here: Green and Isaac Bruce are no brainers against any defense
but this week, I’m loving the possibilities of Torry Holt and Az-zahir
Hakim as well. Keep an eye out but it looks like RB Marshall Faulk will
play with a sore shoulder and he’s a huge asset for Green out of the backfield.
This looks like Shootout City.
Kansas City Passing Game vs Seahawk Defense Assuming Elvis Grbac is good to go (and I think he will be) look
for more aerial fireworks from the Chiefs. Seattle is in a major slump
and part of the reason is a pass defense that’s allowed an average of
255 passing yards per game over the last four weeks. Grbac has thrown
for 554 yards over his last two games. The only downside is he’s spreading
the ball around quite a bit between WRs Derrick Alexander and Sylvester
Morris and of course, TE Tony Gonzalez. Derrick Alexander did smoke the
Seahawks for 152 yards and a TD in their week 5 matchup. Seattle CB Shawn
Springs is a player but Willie Williams on the other side has been beaten
often lately including a Tim Brown TD last week. Every team has trouble
covering Tony Gonzalez and Seattle is no exception. Gonzalez scored a
TD in their last meeting. The Running Backs aren’t much of a factor catching
the ball in this offense.
Carolina Passing Game vs Falcon Defense Defense Steve Beuerlein finally looked like his 1999 version last
week against the 49ers. We’ll see this week how much of that was Beuerlein
and how much was the San Francisco Defense which makes everyone look good.
I’m betting it was a little of both. The Falcons aren’t much better defending
the pass allowing an average of 242 passing yards per game over their
last four games. The Atlanta defense has yielded 14 TDs and 117 points
which works out to 3.5 TDs and 29.25 points per game over that span. That’s
one of the worst in the league. WR Donald Hayes has been very solid of
late and Muhsin Muhammad looked much better last week even though he’s
still complaining of soreness in his hamstring. That looks like it’ll
be a year long problem for him. TE Wesley Walls was limited last week
with his rib injury but should be much better this week. Walls is a tough
guy, many TEs would have sat with a dislocated rib. RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka
was extremely effective as a receiver last week catching 6 passes for
42 yards including 2 TDs. I look for more good things this week from an
offense starting to find their rhythm.
Green Bay Passing Game vs Dolphin Defense Let’s face it, Vinny Testeverde is a good solid NFL QB. Yet the Dolphins
made him look like Kurt Warner in the 4th quarter Monday night. Cornerbacks
Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain are terrific players but the gambling
scheme they play leaves them in man coverage too much of the time. If
you give a QB like Brett Favre too much of that coverage, he will beat
you. Especially when they go to 3 WR sets and the Dolphins are forced
to nickel coverage with a 3rd CB. The talent drop-off from the Dolphins
starting CBs to 3rd corner Jerry Wilson is significant. That means you
could see good numbers from WRs Antonio Freeman, Bill Schroeder and emerging
#3 WR, Donald Driver. Corey Bradford could return as well and look to
see how he's used. Suddenly, it's a crowded WR corps. Both RBs Ahman Green
and Dorsey Levens are productive catching the ball and TE Bubba Franks
is slowly coming on.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
San Diego Passing Game vs Oakland Defense Make sure you understand here. I’m not saying QB Jim Harbaugh is
a top player here. I’m saying he’s got a favorable matchup this week.
The Raiders are winning football games but their pass defense has been
soft. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed an average of 256 passing
yards per game, which ranks them #27 over that span. Harbaugh will get
the start with Ryan Leaf’s wrist still sore. The WRs have come on strong
of late with Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway offering some upside. They’re
starters if you’re in the mood to roll the dice. TE Freddie Jones had
been the primary target up until their last game where he was almost totally
neglected in favor of the WRs. I’m betting he gets more involved this
week. Oakland is prone to giving up a lot of yards to the TE and this
could be a nice week for Jones.
Philadelphia Passing Game vs Giant Defense The Giants are a different defense without Jason Sehorn who’s out
again this week. QB Donovan McNabb continues to play solid football as
he carries the team in wake of Duce Staley’s season ending injury. McNabb’s
a threat to run or throw and that causes all kinds of problems for the
defense. WRs Charles Johnson and Torrance Small are not bad WRs. Johnson
is the clear cut #1 guy. TE Chad Lewis had been on fire but he cooled
some last week. He did have five passes thrown his way though so I think
he’ll be back on track this week.
Tampa Bay Passing Offense vs Viking Defense Not unlike the San Diego capsule, this doesn’t mean I’m especially
high on Tampa Bay’s passing game this week. It means they’ve got a better
chance to do something than they normally do based on the matchup. Shaun
King isn’t progressing nearly as fast as people had hoped. He’s put up
a Tony Banks-like 0 TDs and 3 interceptions the last 2 games. Keyshawn
Johnson looks like he’s getting more involved as he was the target of
12 passes against the Lions in their last game. Jacquez Green had 8 balls
thrown his way. Keyshawn keeps saying the team still doesn’t understand
all the things he can do and he says he’ll be more and more productive.
We’ll see. Right now, it looks to me like both WRs are in the same class.
Certainly, Green has the bigger yard per catch average and is more of
a long ball threat. These teams met a couple of weeks ago and King threw
for 295 yards without a passing TD. RBs Warrick Dunn is a solid Receiver
and Mike Alstott can occasionally catch the ball too. TE Dave Moore hasn’t
been much of a factor and the Vikings are tough on opposing TEs.
Miami Passing Game vs Packer Defense There were times Monday night, when QB Jay Fiedler looked exceptional.
Monday Night Football analyst Dan Fouts (who knows a thing or two about
throwing the football) made the comment after a Fiedler throw along the
lines of “Dan Marino never threw a prettier pass than that”. And he was
right. He made some perfect throws. But he also made some awful throws.
The trick of course, will be building upon the good and eliminating the
bad. We’ll see how well he can accomplish that. The Packers have allowed
an average of 230 passing yards per game over the last three weeks which
puts them at #20. A WR that I’m getting excited about is Leslie Shepherd.
Shepherd should have been included on the Upgrade list for this week.
He’s not catching a lot of passes but it seems like half of what he catches
goes for a TD. He had two more Monday night. Oronde Gadsden has more yardage
but isn’t finding the endzone. O.J. McDuffie’s still seems far from 100%
and Tony Martin is out for a couple more weeks. Lamar Smith is a fine
RB, but he doesn’t catch many passes.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.
Indianapolis Passing Game vs Detroit Defense
The Lions only rank #18 in passing yards allowed per game over the last
4 weeks but they’re improving. I like Peyton Manning vs just about anyone
but this game isn’t a great matchup for him. Lion CB Bryant Westbrook
is coming off a huge game last week with 2 interceptions and 6 passes
defended. Manning will be looking for WR Marvin Harrison and he’s sure
to enjoy some success. Terrence Wilkins has been progressively less involved
recently. Over the last 3 games, he’s been the target 6, 5, and 4 times
respectively. RB Edgerrin James is a nice receiver plus he takes a tremendous
load off of Manning with the threat of his running ability. Good luck
picking which TE will get Manning’s attention. Ken Dilger seemed to be
coming on over Marcus Pollard but then Dilger only had one pass thrown
his way last week vs New England. Either will do in a pinch but neither
can really be counted upon.
Detroit Passing Game vs Colt Defense The Colts continue to follow the Ram’s formula for winning with an
explosive offense trying to score more points than their porous defense
allows. Indianapolis has injuries to DT Ellis Johnson and LB Rob Morris
so they’ll be even weaker than normal. Plus you know Peyton Manning and
crew can put points on the board so QB Charlie Batch will likely have
to throw. Look for WR Johnnie Morton to be the primary target with Germane
Crowell out and Herman Moore nursing a hamstring. TE David Sloan could
even get a look or two with their depleted receivers. RB James Stewart
has actually been catching more passes for more yards than the RB on the
other side of the line this week, Edgerrin James.
New York Jets Passing Game vs Bills Defense I love ESPN’s Chris Berman, but enough already with the Bills “circling
the wagons”. The Jets fly into this game sky high from a dramatic comeback
win against Miami. It’ll be interesting to see which Vinny Testeverde
shows up: The guy who sleepwalked through the first 3 quarters Monday
or the guy who played out of his mind in the 4th quarter. Probably somewhere
in between. We’ve all seen it happen with teams like the Jets where they
start to feel invincible. They’re able to shake off troubles as they have
that “destiny” feeling they’ll prevail. The Bills offer a pretty good
pass defense ranked #15 over the last 4 weeks that could test WRs Wayne
Chrebet, Laveranues Coles and Dedric Ward. Coles is the 2nd best WR on
the team even if he doesn’t show it on the depthcharts. Although the best
receiver for the Jets could be FB Richie Anderson. He hauled in an incredible
12 passes for 109 yards Monday. The TE situation is still a non factor.
New York Giants vs Eagles Defense This one seems like a stalemate to me. QB Kerry Collins is a pretty
good QB but he faces a pretty good pass defense in the Eagles ranked #
13 over the last 4 weeks. The running game with Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne
(I’m so over “Thunder and Lightning…) is pretty good and may take priority
over the passing game. And the Giants have two pretty good WRs in Ike
Hilliard and Amani Toomer who can’t seem to make up their mind who’ll
be the #1 guy. Of course their pretty good TE, Pete Mitchell is a tough
call because although he scored, he did it with a box score of 1 reception
for 1 yard. Oh well. The Eagles have a solid corner in Bobby Taylor who
plays a physical style. In their week 2 matchup, Collins had a nice game
as did both Toomer and Hilliard. We’ll see what kind of player Toomer
is this week as he’s had a week to think about his 2nd half benching in
the last game. Will he respond with a big effort or will he pout? He doesn’t
have a long track record so it’s hard to know but I’m guessing he plays
better.
Dallas Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense
QB Troy Aikman took 6 (yes 6) cortisone injections for his sore back and
says he feels better than he has in years. After the nightmare game against
the Giants, Aikman took a step in the right direction in the Cardinals
game last week. This week, he catches a team in Jacksonville having a
nightmare of their own this season. The Jaguar pass defense has been decent
ranking # 12 over the last 4 weeks but Washington’s Brad Johnson threw
for 269 yards and 3 TDs last week on them. I’d expect a big rushing game
from Emmitt Smith as they try to shift the burden away from Aikman but
you’ll still see him take his shots in the passing game. Raghib Ismail
and James McNight are the likely WR targets. Jaguar CB Fernando Bryant
plays an aggressive technique that does get him into trouble occasionally.
After a promising start, TE Jackie Harris has tailed off considerably
although he could be back on track here.
Buffalo Passing Game vs Jets Defense If WR Peerless Price hadn’t choked up the fumble last week, we’d likely
have been talking about “Flutie Magic” all week. The Jets come off an
emotionally charged win from Monday night and face a Bills team with their
back against the wall. The Jet’s play pretty good pass defense and rank
# 11 over the last 4 weeks. But you have to understand Pittsburgh, New
England and Miami plus a bye were the opponents. They’ve yet to face a
QB like Doug Flutie. WR Eric Moulds is the clear cut favorite. He was
the target an amazing 20 times last week. I could post some decent numbers
if they threw me the ball 20 times a game… I’ve got to believe the fumble
last week will have some pretty major implications for Peerless Price’s
playing time. He’s been a huge disappointment. Jeremy McDaniel seems to
be moving past him as the #2 guy. Big news this week is the hopeful return
of TE Jay Reimersma. He’ll be a huge boost if he can return to his old
level of play.
Atlanta Passing Game vs Panther Defense QB Chris Chandler is showing signs of life but he’s facing a pretty
tough Carolina pass defense this week that ranks #10 in passing yards
allowed over the last 4 weeks. Although you have to think Panther QB Steve
Beuerlein will post some points on the weak Falcon pass defense so Atlanta
could be playing catch-up early. WRs Terance Mathis and Shawn Jefferson
will garner most of Beuerlein’s throws with Mathis being the primary guy.
TE Reggie Kelly is up and down and probably a reach for a starter in all
but the largest leagues.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
Cleveland Passing Game vs Bengal Defense Here’s where the Browns are at: WR Dennis Northcutt said he felt
he would have to become the leader of this team now… If your league awards
negative points for interceptions, Doug Pederson may have more value on
the sidelines than he does if he plays. That’s bad. He was thrown into
action last week and he’ll have more prep work for this game but I still
look for him to struggle. The Bengals rank #17 in defending the pass over
the last 4 weeks and gave up 365 yards to Brian Griese last Sunday. Kevin
Johnson and Northcutt have minimal value but go with Johnson if you’ve
got to choose one.
Cincinnati Passing Game vs Brown Defense This game could be ugly for the QBs. Akili Smith is a bust. But Scott
Mitchell isn’t any better so what are they gonna do? I say they ride the
young guy each week until he gets knocked out or pulled and then finish
with Mitchell. It worked last week. WR Peter Warrick is a play maker.
Evidently, coach Dick LeBeau is a cheatsheets.net subscriber and heeded
our admonition to get the ball into Warrick’s hands. If I was LeBeau,
I’d line Warrick up at QB and go to the wishbone but heh, that’s just
me. RB Corey Dillon is as hot as a firecracker so his presence is enough
to help the passing game even though he doesn’t catch the ball real well.
Outside of Dillon and Warrick, it’s pretty slim pickings on the Bengals.
Seattle Passing Game vs Chief Defense Stay tuned, but for now, it’s looking doubtful for QB Brock Huard.
That means Jon Kitna gets the start and it’s a little like having to go
back to your old girlfriend you dumped after your new girlfriend stands
you up at the prom. Although Kitna’s a pro and he’ll likely use this opportunity
to show coach Mike Holmgren he was wrong in benching him. Kitna only threw
for 140 yards in the week 5 meeting between the two teams. And KC’s improved
since then while Seattle has gone downhill. New WR Darrell Jackson is
the #1 in my book over Sean Dawkins. TE Itula Mili may lose out to Christian
Fauria who's finally healthy. I’d expect you’d see a healthy dose of Ricky
Watters in this one though as the Seahawks try to limit Kitna.
Tennessee Passing Game vs Redskin Defense The big question mark in this one is the health of RB Eddie George’s
knee. At this point, I think he’ll go and be effective but if he’s not
in there, all bets are off. Washington is playing tough pass defense and
should give Steve McNair trouble. McNair’s had trouble throwing against
any defense this season and he’ll face one of the best in Washington.
The Titans look to have both Carl Pickens and Yancey Thigpen healthy to
pair with Chris Sanders and Derrick Mason. I’d look for something of a
rotation until some of the WRs start establishing themselves. I personally
like Mason out of the bunch. TE Frank Wycheck had an off game last week
but I look for him to return to form this week.
Minnesota Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense I love Daunte Culpepper. Let’s get that out of the way. But he’s
got a tough matchup this week in Tampa Bay. The Bucs at home are no walk
in the park and I think they’ll have a lot of fight left in them and would
love nothing more than to spoil the Viking’s perfect season. Should be
a great game. Culpepper threw for 231 yards and 2 TDs in the first matchup
but Tampa is a different team at home. Culpepper will look for Cris Carter
and Randy Moss. Both are solid starters unless you’re just loaded with
WRs. RB Robert Smith is always good for a couple of receptions it seems.
Washington Passing Game vs Titan Defense QB Brad Johnson had a nice step in the right direction last week.
Things will get tougher Sunday as they face a strong Titan team. Corners
Samari Rolle and Denard Walker are tough, physical players who should
give Washington trouble. Johnson will be throwing to WRs Albert Connell
and James Thrash. Not to mention FB Larry Centers. All can catch the ball
well but the Titans have shown the ability to shut down offenses. Should
be a great game.
New Orleans Passing Game vs Cardinals Defense Even though their run defense is awful, the Cardinals do an excellent
job defending the pass. They’ve allowed an average of 179 passing yards
per game over the last 4 weeks which ranks them # 7. QB Jeff Blake will
be looking to hand the ball off to Ricky Williams plenty but he’ll also
go to the air. WRs Joe Horn and Keith Poole do an excellent job with Horn
playing a huge role. RB Ricky Williams is catching the ball extremely
well and should have his chances Sunday. New Cardinals Coach Dave McGinnis
will have his players ready to play.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Baltimore Passing Game vs Steeler Defense This looks like a 6-3 game if there ever was one. QB Trent Dilfer
takes the reins from Tony Banks but I can see similar results against
a stingy Steeler defense. Pittsburgh is only allowing an average of 110
passing yards per game over the last 4 weeks. When Banks does throw, he’ll
be looking for WRs Travis Taylor and Qadry Ismail and his big TE Shannon
Sharpe. The Steelers make a living taking advantage of the other team’s
mistakes and I’d expect you’ll see them force Dilfer into more than one
error.
Jacksonville Passing Game vs Cowboy Defense
QB Mark Brunell will try to get things back on track this weekend but
they’ll be facing a Cowboy pass defense that’s very strong. Dallas ranks
#2 in the league in passing yards allowed over the last 4 weeks. WR Jimmy
Smith has been hobbled the last two games. He says he’ll go Sunday but
he doesn’t seem to be at full speed. Keenan McCardell will again likely
be the primary target. Jacksonville’s tried to get rookie R. Jay Soward
involved but he’s been awful. TE Kyle Brady was huge in the last game
which was very strange for Brunell. Let’s see if it can happen again.
Arizona Passing Game vs Saints Defense One of the nicer surprises of this young season is the all around
improvement of the Saints. The offense is fun to watch but the real improvement
is coming on their defense which has been excellent. This week they feast
on QB Jake Plummer. New coach Dave McGinnis will impart some fire and
enthusiasm but how far will that go? WR David Boston works with Frank
Sanders at WR. Boston will reportedly be a bigger part of the passing
game. Look for Michael Pittman to get more action at RB as well. Chris
Gedney sees a few looks at TE but he’s a reach.
Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Raven Defense
Kordell Stewart gets the start and he’ll have has work cut out for him
against a very tough Raven Defense. Baltimore is only allowing 177 passing
yards per game over the last 4 games. WRs Plaxico Burress will be the
primary threat among a non descript WR corps including Bobby Shaw, Courtney
Hawkins and Troy Edwards. Jerome Bettis doesn’t catch many passes but
contributes to the passing game as teams must prepare to stop the run.
Should be a low scoring affair.
Rushing Game Matchups:
-LOCKS: These games heavily
favor the Offense.
Tshimanga Biakabutuka (Car) vs Falcon Defense The Falcons head into this game averaging an awful 180 rushing yards
per game over the last 4 weeks. I’d look for Biakabutuka to continue his
excellent play. He’s catching the ball as well as he’s running lately
and this should be another excellent day for him against a defense that’s
yielding lots of rushing yards.
Kimble Anders / Frank Moreau (KC) vs Seahawk Defense Coach Gunther Cunningham says Anders will be his starter but in the
same breath says Moreau will see action as well. Same old Gunther… It
does look like it’ll be one of the two though and that’s about as clear
as the Chief RB situation has been in years. Anders didn’t get going until
the 2nd half of last week’s game but that shouldn’t be the case this week.
The Seahawks defense can’t stop anyone as they’re allowing an average
of 171 rushing yards per game over the last 4 weeks. Some feel Moreau
is the team’s most talented back and he did get some goalline carries
last week.
Corey Dillon (Cin) vs Brown Defense If Corey Dillon broke Walter Payton’s single game rushing record
against the #2 rushing defense in the league last week, what’ll he do
against the Browns this week ranked # 29 over the last 4 weeks? You do
the math. He’s got a chance to have another monster game.
Travis Prentice (Cle) vs Bengal Defense Corey Dillon will grab all the headlines here but Prentice has a
shot at some nice rushing numbers as well. Cincinnati is giving up an
average of 151 rushing yards per game over the last 4 weeks. That rates
them # 28. Prentice could struggle until the opposing defenses have some
faith QB Doug Pederson will throw the ball but if that gets established
he could do very well.
Ricky Williams (NO) vs Cardinal Defense Ricky Williams is playing like the best RB in the league right now.
He’s got a great mix of power and speed and seems very comfortable in
the Saints offense. His pass catching ability has always been underrated
and he’s making a believer out of everyone who’s doubted him The Cardinals
will likely be fired up to play as it’ll be the first game with interim
head coach Dave McGinnis at the helm but emotion will only carry them
so far.
Fred Taylor (Jac) vs Cowboy Defense I’ve been a guy who’s ripped Fred Taylor over the years but I’ll
give the guy some credit—he’s hung in there over the last few games while
everything has fallen apart around him. Of course he’s hurt (wrist) but
this time he’s playing through it. Remember, the Cowboys gave up 200+
yards to Duce Staley and Charlie Garner. Taylor could be in line for a
huge game.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense
Shawn Bryson / Sammy Morris (Buf) vs Jets Defense
New York is averaging 147 rushing yards allowed per game over the last
4 weeks. The Bills have finally settled on a RB 1-2 punch that works.
Both are similar styles: tough power runners that catch the ball very
well. The Bills know they can’t put everything on Doug Flutie’s shoulders
and I look for them to lean on the running game.
Jamal Anderson (Atl) vs Panther Defense In their week 3 matchup earlier this season, Anderson ran for 97
yards on 22 carries with a TD. Anderson’s looked stronger of late while
Carolina has taken a few hits on defense. This could be another solid
game for Anderson as he gets to stay home on the turf.
Robert Smith (Min) vs Buccaneer Defense Robert Smith is quietly having one of his best seasons as a pro.
The Bucs vaunted defense has been remarkably poor. Over the last 4 games,
they’re allowing an average of 143 rushing yards per game. That ranks
them # 23. Tampa does play tougher at home but I still see Smith excelling
here.
Emmitt Smith (Dal) vs Jaguar Defense This will be another week where the team limits QB Troy Aikman and
lets Smith shoulder the load. The Jags are very prone to giving up big
yardage against the run and that trend could continue this week. Watch
out for RB Chris Warren stealing a little time but I think Smith can hold
his own.
Marshall Faulk (Stl.) vs 49er Defense San Francisco is stronger defending the run than they are the pass
(like that’s saying something) but they’re still just average in rush
defense (# 19) while St. Louis is one of the most explosive offenses in
the league. Faulk’s shoulder looks to be fine and he’s set to start.
Edgerrin James (Ind) vs Lion Defense After a less than Edgerrin-like first few weeks, James has responded
with two back to back big games. He’ll find the going pretty tough against
Detroit but I’m betting he’ll have another fine game. The Lions yield
118 yards per game and will be playing in Indy, a tough place to go on
the road.
James Stewart (Det) vs Colt Defense The Colts are giving up way too many yards on both the ground and
through the air if they’re going to be serious contenders. They’ve got
injury problems on both their DL and in their LB corps so I don’t see
this as the week they make improvements. Especially facing a tough RB
like Stewart.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way
Ricky Watters / Shaun Alexander (Sea) vs Chief Defense
This one could get touchy. The Seahawks are very close (if they’re not
already there) to closing the books on the 2000 season. As they start
to look towards 2001, you could very likely see more of the rookie Alexander
since many think Watters isn’t in their long term plans. Disturbing thoughts
for Watters owners. Watch closely this week for a clue. KC’s been winning
but their rush defense is nothing special, ranking # 20 in the league
over the last 4 weeks.
Lamar Smith (Mia) vs Packer Defense Lamar Smith doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He’s a hard nosed
runner and gets the job done even if he doesn’t look especially pretty
doing it. The Packer defense is pretty good in limiting the run, ranking
#14 over the last 4 weeks. If QB Jay Fiedler can build on the good things
he did Monday night, that’ll go a long ways toward helping the rushing
game.
Dorsey Levens / Ahman Green (GB) vs Dolphin Defense Miami held the Jet’s Curtis Martin down last week and Martin is as
solid as they get. That makes me really wonder how Levens / Green will
fare. Although with a week to prepare, they’ll likely be ready to play.
This is a little like the Seattle situation where it’s hard to figure
which RB will see the most time. Levens may not be in the long term future
for Green Bay. I was surprised to see them giving Ahman Green the ball
at the goalline. Evidently, the staff feels his fumbling worries are under
control.
Tyrone Wheatley / Napoleon Kaufman (Oak) vs Charger Defense
San Diego’s defense is just a shadow of it’s old self. Still though, they’ve
got enough fight to give Wheatley and Kaufman a good game. The Chargers
have yielded 12 TDs and 105 points over the last 3 weeks, one of the higher
totals in the league. Oakland faced San Diego in week one and neither
Wheatley ( 13 for 47 yards) nor Kaufman ( 4 for 0 yards) did much.
Jermaine Fazande (SD) vs Raider Defense The Raider rush defense ranks # 11 in the league. Fazande should
be rested after the bye week and ready to dish out some punishment. Denver’s
Mike Anderson lit up the Raiders for 187 yards in week 3 so they can be
run on. It seems to me the Raiders sometimes fade toward the end of the
game. They won’t have that luxury facing Fazande.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense
Mike Alstott / Warrick Dunn (TB) vs Viking Defense The Vikings are tougher on defense than many had expected and the
Bucs are having more trouble running the ball than man thought they would.
Mike Alstott continues to struggle with the fumbling and you can bet opposing
defenses are going for the ball. Minnesota comes in ranked # 10 against
the run over the last 4 weeks.
Eddie George (Ten) vs Redskin Defense Fingers crossed that George is able to go Monday night. I’m thinking
he will be. Backup Rodney Thomas is a major downgrade from George. Apparently,
the money Danny Snyder threw at his defense this year is paying off. They’re
in fine shape it would seem. George is a star and you have to start him
unless you’re incredibly deep at RB, but I don’t particularly like his
matchup this week.
Ron Dayne / Tiki Barber (NYG) vs Eagle Defense Philadelphia’s one of those teams no one wants to play. They play
tough defense yet their reputation hasn’t quite caught up to their level
of play. Dayne had a weak day in their last meeting rushing for 50 yards
on 21 carries, while Barber went for 96 yards and a TD on just 11 carries.
The problem with starting Dayne is that he’s so situational. If the Giants
fall behind, he gets put on the shelf.
Curtis Martin (NYJ) vs Bills Defense Buffalo knows it’s now or never and they should be ready for the
Jets this week. Curtis Martin is a workhorse but is coming off a less
than stellar Monday night performance against Miami. I don’t really look
for him to get things back completely on track against this defense that’s
allowing 87.5 rushing yards per game over the past 4 weeks.
Charlie Garner (SF) vs Rams Defense
The Rams passing defense is on the opposite spectrum of their rush defense.
They’re only allowing 71.6 rushing yards per game which is outstanding.
Of course, if you’re a Garner owner, you know he racks up as many yards
receiving as he does rushing lately. I look for Garner to do well, but
this isn’t a great matchup.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense
Michael Pittman / Thomas Jones vs Saints Defense
New Cardinal coach Dave McGinnis reportedly wants to increase the number
of touches Pittman sees each game. Let’s watch this one closely to see
if he means it. This week, I’m not sure how much it’ll matter though as
the Saints are awesome vs the run. They’re allowing a league low 52 rushing
yards per game over the last 4 weeks.
Jamal Lewis / Priest Holmes (Bal) vs Steeler Defense I’m anxious to see what type of spark new QB Trent Dilfer will bring
to the offense but I’m not too excited about the Raven RBs facing a very
tough defense in the Steelers. Pittsburgh has only allowed 1 TD and 16
points in their last 4 games. That’s amazing.
Jerome Bettis (Pit) vs Raven Defense Just as I’m not excited about the Ravens chances of running the ball,
I’m less than optimistic about the Steelers facing Baltimore. Chris Fuamatu
Ma’Afala was filling in for the injured FB Jon Whitman taking over the
“Bus Driver” role. But he’s now out with a fractured foot. At some point,
this will affect Bettis in a significant way I’m afraid.
Darnell Autry (Phi) vs Giants Defense Autry could be in for more than he bargained for this week as he’ll
face a Giant’s D that’s defending the rush very well. New York is allowing
an average of 80 rushing yards per game over the last 4 weeks. I don’t
see that average rising much after this game.
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