Changing and expanding
the format again this week as I try to include even more players for
you. I’m trying weigh how valuable this expanded format is to folks
so drop me a line
and tell me what you think of this new style and if you find it useful.
Passing Game Matchups:
Here's how I see the matchups this
week. Please note, see the cheatsheet
for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. Just because
one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily
mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. The matchup info is meant
to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.
Note: I’ve used the player stats sorted by performance over the last two
weeks extensively in developing these writeups. Stats are provided by
Mike Hall’s excellent FLM League Management
Software. for more info. Next week, I’ll likely expand the sort to
the past 3 games as we focus on recent trends.
-LOCKS: These
games heavily favor the offense.
Jacksonville Passing Game vs Steeler Defense
In particular, look for WR Jimmy Smith to have a field day here. The Steelers
have allowed 603 yards passing over the last 2 weeks. Cornerbacks Dewayne
Washington and Chad Scott will be way over their heads against Smith and
#2 man Keenan McCardell (who'd be a #1 WR on a lot of teams) Rookie R.
Jay Soward is starting to get into the flow as well. Pittsburgh Safeties
Brent Alexander and Lee Flowers will likely be counted on heavily for
help since the Jaguars don't have a great TE. Although the safeties shouldn’t
be too much of a factor as they'll have to respect the rushing of RB Fred
Taylor. Smith has always been Brunell's favorite target but it seems now
he's focusing on him every time he drops back. By association, look for
solid things from QB Mark Brunell as well. A healthy Fred Taylor (yes,
it's hard to type that) makes a huge difference as far as coverage goes
and Brunell should take advantage. I'm a regular Fred Taylor dissenter
but to his credit, he did look pretty good Monday night with the knee
brace and reportedly felt well after the game. The Steeler Defense has
only recorded 1 sack over the last 2 games so they've had trouble getting
to the QB. If Brunell has time to look for Smith and McCardell, it could
be a long day for the Steelers. Injury note: Keep an eye on the injury
news for Brunell. He's nursing a sore calf that apparently is causing
some concern about him playing Sunday. He practiced Thursday and is currently
set to start Sunday.
Carolina Passing Game vs Cowboy Defense
This is all you need to know: Arizona QB Jake Plummer threw for 3 TDs
against this defense a couple of weeks ago. Throw in the fact that Philadelphia’s
Duce Staley and San Francisco’s Charlie Garner each racked up over 200
yards rushing against the Cowboys and I’m thinking of starting the Panther
waterboy. QB Steve Beuerlein should have his way with a defense that’s
on it’s heels. Cornerbacks Ryan McNeil, Phillippi Sparks and Kareem Larrimore
should have their hands full with the tall physical WRs Muhsin Muhammad
and Donald Hayes. Safeties Darren Woodson and George Teague won’t be able
to offer as much help as will be needed since they’ll have to respect
TE Wesley Walls across the middle, not to mention run support for Panther
RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka. Over the last couple of games, Dallas has given
up 8 TDs and 62 points. George Siefert and the Panthers have to be licking
their chops. I’d feel very comfortable in starting all my Carolina guys
this weekend.
San Francisco Passing Game vs Cardinal Defense I went out on a
limb ranking QB Jeff Garcia highly this Summer and he had me worried a
couple of weeks ago but now he's back in stride. Look for him to continue
his roll after a great 4 TD game vs Dallas last week as he'll face an
Arizona team that's just awful. By now, you know WR Terrell Owens is taking
an "excused" leave of absence after his brain cramp in Dallas. He's useless
this week so let's look at guys who'll be on the field. WR Jerry Rice
obviously becomes the clear #1 choice for Garcia. That may not be an altogether
good thing for Rice as he seems to have gotten a little comfortable in
that out of the spotlight role with Owens drawing the better coverage.
The Cardinals may be bad as a team but Aeneas Williams is still a fine
cornerback and it could be trouble for Rice. The question is who will
take over the #2 slot-the disappointing J.J. Stokes or Tai Streets? I'll
keep you posted through the week but as of now, it's a tough call. I've
seen different sources claim each would get the start opposite Rice. Whoever
gets the call will likely have a solid game as Tom Knight, the other CB,
is nothing special. Corey Chavous comes in on nickel packages but he gives
up quite a height disadvantage to Stokes. QB Jeff Garcia continues to
silence his critics as he's made plays when he needs to. San Francisco
ranks 4th in the league for Red Zone Efficiency and a big part of that
has been Garcia's poise. Of course a ground game like the 49ers have put
together helps a ton too. RB Charlie Garner's playing as well as he ever
has and he and FB Fred Beasley have helped pad the passing numbers with
their receiving skills. I see no reason why that won't continue this week.
Philadelphia Passing Game vs Falcon Defense RB Duce Staley is their
best skill position player but QB Donovan McNabb, WRs Charles Johnson
/ Torrance Small and TEs Chad Lewis / Luther Broughton are solid players
that don't get much attention. McNabb broke loose last week throwing for
222 yards and 2 TDs while rushing 7 times for 23 yards. He's a gifted
runner and don't be surprised to see him start visiting the endzone via
the ground on a regular basis. His passing skill actually hurts his running
numbers. Unlike a Daunte Culpepper who tucks the ball if his 2nd read
is covered, McNabb is better at finding his receivers. The Eagles were
glad to have Torrance Small back and it takes some of the pressure off
Charles Johnson. The Falcons have yielded 546 passing yards over the last
2 weeks. They have recorded 7 sacks in that time so they're putting some
pressure on the QB but it won't be enough against the slippery McNabb.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
Arizona Passing Game vs 49er Defense Off the record, I'm so down
on QB Jake Plummer words can't describe the depths. But as my sworn duty
to identify the matchups to exploit here, I have to mention any team throwing
against the San Francisco unit. To their credit, the 49ers rose to the
occasion last week against Dallas only allowing 222 yards but that was
some sort of team record I think. I'm also not sure that performance didn't
have quite a bit to do with Troy Aikman still shaking the cobwebs out.
San Francisco is still at the bottom of the league in my list of the last
2 weeks passing yards allowed, even with the good game vs the Cowboys.
Let's just leave it at this: If you're ever going to start Jake Plummer,
WRs David Boston or Frank Sanders, this is the week to do it. Plummer
will have OT L.J. Shelton back in the lineup which should help a great
deal. If I had to pick a WR here, I'd look at David Boston as he's got
the best chance to break one. On the other side, Frank Sanders is a physical
guy who could muscle the inexperienced SF secondary. On a positive note
(unless you're a Cardinal fan) the 49ers head into this game with some
emotion and confidence where they look to be capable of hanging points
on the board. On that note, Plummer will likely be playing catchup and
going to the air often.
St. Louis Passing Game vs Charger Defense I've been doing the Matchups
to Avoid / Exploit for a few years and I don't recall ever listing San
Diego in the "exploit" column. But the truth is the once proud Charger
Defense has become shockingly average. Their Pass Defense has allowed
393 yards in the previous 2 games (18th) and the Rush Defense has given
up 225 yards (21st) over that span. What's this league coming to? While
a Cleveland or San Francisco would kill for those numbers, that's not
what you expect from Jr. Seau and Company. To be truthful, they're doing
all they can. Their offense with the rotating QB carousel just hasn't
been able to sustain anything and keep the Charger Defense on the sidelines
for any amount of time. Look for that to be the case again Sunday and
QB Kurt Warner and crew to continue their roll. You're probably as tired
as I am of hearing it but the team speed of the Rams just can't be ignored.
It was highlighted last week when Warner rolled up 336 yards and 4 TDs
on TWELVE completions. San Diego simply doesn't have any way to combat
that. The scary part is Charger Defensive Coordinator Joe Pascale will
likely be forced to blitz and stunt all day. And guess which QB is better
than any against the blitz? That's right, Warner. Warner does a great
job of spreading the ball around so picking his WRs is a tricky proposition.
WR Isaac Bruce had twice as many passes thrown his way compared to Torry
Holt last week but that can change. And given the aforementioned explosiveness,
sometimes it only takes a couple of receptions for guys to rack up 100
yards. Still, Bruce seems to be the preferred target although Holt is
a close #2. And don't forget about RB Marshall Faulk who's had 10 receptions
for 83 yards in the last 2 weeks.
Minnesota Passing Game vs Lion Defense QB Daunte Culpepper's had
a week off to prepare for the Lions. After 3 games where he earned rave
reviews from just about everyone, the bye probably came at a good time
for him to step back and evaluate things. These are the Lions who gave
up 254 yards to Chicago last week that had been struggling badly. Coach
Dennis Green just inked a new contract extension and that should make
most of the players happy. WR Randy Moss in particular had said his future
with Minnesota hinged on whether Green remained the coach or not. Offensive
Coordinator Sherman Lewis has scaled back the playbook for Culpepper limiting
him to a couple of reads on each passing play. If those two guys are covered,
it's off to the races and Culpepper's rushing skills are enough to give
opposing safeties nightmares. Look for WR Cris Carter to shine as Moss
continues to draw double coverage. Sherman Lewis has said they've got
find a way to get Moss the ball even with the extra attention. Remember,
he started off a bit slow last year and then erupted. He's the kind of
player who can score in bunches and this might be the week he does it
against a Lion Defense that can be thrown on. In addition to the 465 passing
yards Detroit's allowed the last 2 weeks, they've also yielded 6 total
TDs and 45 points. I look for both those numbers to rise after this week.
New York Giant Passing Game vs Titan Defense Tennessee had a week
to prepare for Pittsburgh and then allowed Steeler QB Kent Graham to throw
for 249 yards? That's just wrong. Graham hadn't broken the vaunted 200
yard passing barrier until facing the Super Bowl runner-ups. Let's put
it this way: QB Kerry Collins is better than Kent Graham. We’ve been a
little alarmed as WR Ike Hilliard seems to be drawing an awful lot of
attention from Collins at the expense of WR Amani Toomer. In Sunday’s
game, Hilliard saw twice as many passes thrown his way than did Toomer.
Over the last 2 games, Hilliard has 11 catches for 139 yards with 1 TD
while Toomer has 8 receptions for 55 yards and no scores. I’m not panicked
as we all know this can change in a hurry but it’s worth watching. TE
Pete Mitchell is feeling much better after suffering from ulcer symptoms
and should be closer to 100% for this week. I can’t mention the Giant
passing game without talking about RB Tiki Barber. The “Lightening” half
of the Ron Dayne / Tiki Barber combo remains a dangerous receiving threat
and could be relied upon even more if Titan DE Jevon Kearse and Company
pressure Collins.
Green Bay Passing Game vs Bear Defense QB Brett Favre showed signs
of his old self finally last week throwing for 277 yards and a TD. The
Bears bring a little better defense than the Cardinals offer but I don’t
see why Favre won’t continue to improve. Chicago is a team that’s reeling.
Harboring playoff aspirations a month ago, they’re still searching for
their first win. It’s the oldest rivalry in the league and I’d look for
Favre to prolong Chicago’s misery. The Bears have allowed 429 yards passing
in the last 2 weeks which puts them in the lower third of the league.
Surprisingly, Favre is succeeding despite the disappearing act of WR Antonio
Freeman who only had 1 reception for 20 yards Sunday. Although if you
put much faith in the historical records Freeman had 2 of his better games
last season against the Bears going 8 for 71 yards and 6 for 97 yards.
WR Bill Schroeder seemed on the verge of losing his #2 job but he responded
with a nice game including a beautiful long TD catch. Donald Driver is
an up and coming WR to keep an eye on. The TE receptions still are split
between Bubba Franks and Tyrone Davis. That’s good news for Favre owners
but tough for owners of either TE. And of course you know the Packers
get RBs Dorsey Levens and Ahman Green involved in the passing game as
well. The Chicago pass rush has recorded 5 sacks over the last 2 weeks
so they’re getting a decent amount of pressure on the QB. The secondary
has shown to be beatable though and Favre should continue to have success
spreading the ball around.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.
Washington Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense
Tampa Bay remains near the top of the league in rushing defense but over
the last two games, their pass defense has been exposed a bit. They’ve
allowed 424 yards through the air over games 3 and 4 which isn’t awful,
but it’s below average. And it’s not like their opponents in those games
(Lions and Jets) are throwing the ball like St. Louis. QB Brad Johnson
responded well in week 4 with a 289 yard, 2 TD outing. While not quite
as impressive as Kurt Warner’s yard per completion numbers, the fact he
totaled those yards on only 14 completions is pretty amazing. Tampa Bay
Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin uses lots of blitzes and this could
be trouble for Johnson, especially with safety valve FB Larry Centers
ailing. In last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay, Johnson spread
the ball around to 8 different receivers and he could try a similar approach
Sunday. Last week, WRs Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Albert Connell and James
Thrash all made the top 40 list in a normal TD / Performance system. Look
for Reed and Fryar to join Charles Barkley and Mike Ditka in that retirement
home commercial sometime soon but for now, they’re playing well. I still
think Albert Connell has to be the primary threat there although he doesn’t
seem to be in a situation where he’ll start seeing 10-12 balls a game
like many #1 WRs will. TE Stephen Alexander continues to frustrate as
he always seems like he should deliver more than he does. As I said in
the Larry Centers note above, Alexander may get his chance if Tampa can
bring the pressure.
Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense QB Kent Graham put together
a 254 yard passing day against the Titans last week. He did fail to score
a TD and he came out of the game for Kordell Stewart on the QB sneak play.
Still though, it’s hard to deny the Jaguars can be thrown on after the
Colts game. Graham is not in the same ballpark as Peyton Manning, but
then half of what Manning put up would be a pretty good day for most QBs.
WR Plaxico Burress has been a major disappointment and likely won’t start
producing this week even if the Jaguar corners have been less than stellar.
WR Hines Ward has been outplaying Troy Edwards lately but even with a
pretty neutral matchup in Jacksonville, I’d be leery of starting many
Steelers in the passing game this week.
Tennessee Passing Game vs Giant Defense You really do need a program
to know the players in this one. QB’s Steve McNair (bruised sternum) and
Neil O’Donnell (neck) are both questionable. WR Kevin Dyson is gone. WR
Yancey Thigpen might as well be gone with a terminal hamstring injury.
That shoots WR Carl Pickens to the top of the class with Chris Sanders
and Derrick Mason fighting for the #2 job. Last week, Sanders had 54 yards
on 4 catches and Mason rang up 71 yards on 5 receptions. Pickens only
caught 2 balls but made the most of them for 105 yards. Don’t fret about
only 2 catches as he was the target of many more passes that they couldn’t
hook up on. He’s clearly the go to guy. Coach Jeff Fisher is saying McNair
will be a late Friday decision but if I had to guess, I’d look for McNair.
He was able to play last week in an emergency and the New York game is
huge at home. From a matchup perspective, the Giants can be thrown on.
They’ve allowed an average of 229 yards per game over the last two weeks.
Cornerback Jason Sehorn is playing well but Dave Thomas, even at 6’ 3”
could have some real trouble with Pickens as the two former Vols go at
it.
San Diego Passing Game vs Ram Defense The revolving QB continues
in San Diego as wily veteran Jim Harbaugh takes the reins. Ryan Leaf is
out for a couple of weeks with a bad wrist and Moses Moreno is still ailing.
A year ago, this would have been a total mismatch in favor of the defense
but you know by now that the St. Louis D isn’t what it was in 1999. They’ve
averaged over 250 passing yards allowed per game over the last 2 weeks.
Partly because the Rams are still hanging lots of points on the board
and forcing teams to pass but also because opposing offenses are having
some success through the air. Forget the WRs on this team. Curtis Conway
drops way too many balls and Mikhael Ricks and Nate Jacquet aren’t worth
the time it takes to make sure I spell them right. For the Charger passing
game, it’s all TE Freddie Jones. Which is probably a good thing as the
Charger QBs aren’t good enough to supply more than one receiver with stats
worth noting. Jones has 12 receptions for 127 yards over the last 2 weeks
(including 8 for 82 last week) The offense appears to be designed around
the big guy and I look for that to continue, especially since Harbaugh
doesn’t have a big arm. Atlanta’s TE Reggie Kelly had a big game against
the Rams last week (4 receptions for 83 yards) so the Rams can be vulnerable
there. The lack of a supporting cast for Jones does worry me a bit though.
New England Passing Game vs Bronco Defense
QB Drew Bledsoe faces a Bronco Defense that’s pretty average against the
pass and gave up 250 yards / 2 TDs to KC’s Elvis Grbac last week. WRs
Terry Glenn and Troy Brown garner almost all the WR receptions and that
shouldn’t change. Glenn especially is getting tons of attention with Bledsoe
really focusing on getting him the ball, almost to the point of forcing
it to him. Of particular note is the fact Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez
absolutely killed the Broncos last week with 10 receptions for 127 yards
and TD. New England’s TE Eric Bjornson is no Tony Gonzalez, but you can
bet the Patriots have taken notice of what KC and Gonzalez did. He’s yet
to be a factor this far but this could be his week. The WRs may not be
deep, but they’re talented enough to warrant safety help which could be
all it takes.
Baltimore Passing Game vs Brown Defense After a cakewalk vs Cincinnati, the high flying Ravens face Cleveland
this week (nice schedule) QB Tony Banks has a new favorite target in WR
Travis Taylor who seems to be fulfilling some of his draft day expectations.
He seems to have already supplanted Qadry Ismail as the go to WR for Banks.
The Browns will be forced to pay extra attention to TE Shannon Sharpe
and that could free up the WRs. I look for Taylor to have success against
cornerback Daylon McCutcheon who’s been nursing a rib injury and struggling
in coverage. Look for RB Jamal Lewis to continue to roll and keep the
defense honest. He also displayed some receiving ability last week that
he can build on. I didn’t agree with coach Brian Billick’s handling of
the Cincinnati game throwing the ball with 2 minutes left toward the endzone
up 34 - zip against the hapless Bengals but you can’t deny he’s putting
together a strong offensive team to go with his already awesome defense.
Indianapolis Passing Game vs Bill Defense While this isn’t a matchup
that particularly favors the Colts, QB Peyton Manning is a must start
unless you’re sitting on Kurt Warner or Steve Beuerlein. Same thing goes
for WR Marvin Harrison who’s just too good. I’d probably consider WR Terrence
Wilkins a starter in most leagues as well. He looked great in his first
game back from a concussion Monday and seems to be the clear #2 guy. On
a team with Peyton Manning throwing the ball, a #2 WR definitely has value.
TE Ken Dilger seems to draw a few more looks than TE Marcus Pollard but
both are playing well enough to keep the other from becoming a FF star.
Of course, RB Edgerrin James is like a WR in the backfield and catches
the ball extremely well. The Bills have a solid defense but so did Jacksonville.
Detroit Passing Game vs Minnesota Defense Can’t say I thought I’d
be writing about the strength of the Viking defense but after their opening
game with Chicago, the pass unit has played well even if Miami and New
England haven’t been great tests. They did hold the Patriots to 164 yards
passing in their last game. Lion QB Charlie Batch has looked more comfortable
each week and he does have some talent to throw to in WRs Germane Crowell
and Johnnie Morton. The Viking secondary can certainly be beat and their
pass rush doesn’t scare many folks. TE David Sloan doesn’t look to do
any more than his usual few catches as Batch should have the time to go
deeper to the WRs.
Kansas City Passing Game vs Seahawk Defense Let’s see if QB Elvis
Grbac can continue the roll. He followed a great week 3 game with another
solid outing against Denver last week. Seattle’s pass defense is solid
though only allowing 180 yards passing per game over the last 2 weeks.
Shawn Springs is one of the better corners in the game and he’ll likely
be able to shut down either rookie WR Sylvester Morris or the veteran
Derrick Alexander. The Chief they don’t have an answer for is TE Tony
Gonzalez who exploded last week against Denver. The Seahawks gave up 8
catches and 82 yards to San Diego’s Freddie Jones last week and the Chiefs,
with their other weapons, will make Gonzalez even tougher to handle. Should
be a case of a good defense facing a good offense.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
Miami Passing Game vs Bengal Defense Judging from the 200+ emails
from Miami fans this morning, I’m guessing some don’t agree with my low
ranking of the Miami passing attack. Two things I see here: QB Jay Fiedler
just isn’t very good. And the Bengals aren’t that bad on defense. Cincinnati
has allowed 186 yards per game in passing yardage over the last 2 games.
That puts them at #14 and is better than San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit.
WR Tony Martin is ailing with a bad foot. And I have to ask how comfortable
are you with WRs Bert Emanuel and Oronde Gadsden? Me neither. So yes,
I’m down on the Dolphin passing game. On the flip side, I think Miami
will grind it out on the ground against the Bengals who are weak defending
the run. RB Lamar Smith is a little nicked but I’m looking for a strong
game from him.
Buffalo Passing Game vs Colt Defense Seems like forever since the Bills played last and they get the pleasure
of returning against a sky high Colt team fresh off a great Monday night
game. QB Rob Johnson is healthy and ready to go. Doug Flutie is also recovered
from his groin injury but will ride the bench unless something happens
to Johnson. The focal point of the Bills passing attack is WR Eric Moulds.
With Peerless Price a non factor lately, Moulds is shouldering the load.
Unfortunately, he’ll also be drawing the attention of most of the Colt
secondary. Cornerbacks Tyrone Poole and Jeff Burris have done a pretty
nice job as the Colts held Jacksonville’s Mark Brunell to 189 yards passing
Monday. Losing TE Jay Reimersma for a few weeks is a definite blow to
both Johnson and to the WRs who relied on the big TE to take pressure
off across the middle.
Denver Passing Game vs Patriot Defense Lots of questions surrounding
Brian Griese’s shoulder but it’s looking like he’ll give it a go Sunday.
That’s good news for Denver Fans as Frerotte didn’t wow anyone last week.
Frerotte also seemed to strongly favor WR Rod Smith over Ed McCaffrey,
something Griese didn’t do. The Patriots may be struggling but it’s not
because of their pass defense. They’re ranked #5 in passing yards allowed
the last 2 weeks and corner Ty Law is one of the game’s best. Whoever
he lines up on will likely be limited. TE Dwayne Carswell remains a nice
outlet for Griese and could be used often.
Dallas Passing Game vs Carolina Defense San Francisco entered last
weeks game with Dallas featuring one of the worst passing defenses in
the league. Yet they held the Cowboys in check. Tough to say whether you
should blame Troy Aikman and the Cowboys or credit the 49er defense. Probably
a little of both but it’s clear the Dallas passing game is struggling.
QB Troy Aikman looked sluggish as he returned from his concussion. The
Cowboys are actually a more dangerous team right now with Randall Cunningham
behind center but they’re in a tough spot of benching a Hall of Famer
that says he’s ready to play. The WR Corps is decimated. Of course, they
lost Joey Galloway but now Rocket Ismail is questionable with a hamstring
and Wayne McGarity is doubtful with an ankle injury. That leaves James
McNight to carry the WR load and I’m not very comfortable with that. The
one bright spot has been the stellar play of TE Jackie Harris. But with
the WRs ailing, they’ll likely be able to focus on Harris more than usual.
Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Redskin Defense I like QB Shaun King
and he looks comfortable in the pocket, but he’s just not putting the
numbers on the board. The Redskins will bring the best defense money can
buy this week and you gotta admit, they looked pretty darn good taking
down a very good Giant team. With Champ Bailey, Deion Sanders and Darrell
Green, the Redskins boast a triple headed corner monster (is that a triangle?)
that’s as good as any in the league. They also do a nice job of hurrying
the QB. I’ve said for a while that WR Jacquez Green will put up better
numbers than Keyshawn Johnson and I think I’ll be right when the season’s
over. I think both these guys could struggle against Washington. TE Dave
Moore will sneak up on you but it’s worth noting Washington did hold Carolina
TE Wesley Walls to 3 catches for 28 yards in week 1 even if he did sneak
a TD in there.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Cleveland Passing Game vs Raven Defense It’s scary how dominant
the Ravens have been lately. Over the last 2 weeks, they have yielded
the fewest passing yards and also the fewest rushing yards of any NFL
team. Don’t look for Cleveland to change that much. Cleveland is passing
over 70% of the time and QB Tim Couch has improved, but I don’t see him
having much success against this awesome defense. The same can be said
for WRs Kevin Johnson and Darrin Chiaverini. Raven Corners Duane Starks
and Chris McAlister could have a field day if the tough Raven pass rush
hurries Couch into mistakes. TE Aaron Shea didn’t do much after a promising
week 3 and this game won’t be any better.
Chicago Passing Game vs Green Bay Defense
Even though the Cardinals
figure into one of these games, the Packers look strong on pass defense
only allowing an average of 133 yards per game over the last two. QB Cade
McNown may have stolen Tim Couch’s Playboy Playmate of the year girlfriend,
but he’s struggling to find a rhythm in Gary Crowton’s spread offense.
I’m worried this may not be the week it happens. WR Marcus Robinson will
get his catches but after that, it’s hard to figure. Losing WR Bobby Engram
was a major blow and it now looks like WR Marty Booker may be the guy
to take up the slack, not Eddie Kennison as was originally hoped.
Cincinnati Passing Game vs Dolphin Defense This game might be as
ugly from a Bengal perspective as the Raven game was last week. For this
week, I can’t see starting any Bengal.
Atlanta Passing Game vs Eagle Defense
The Eagles are an improving team that’s playing with fire and enthusiasm.
They’ve recorded a whopping 10 sacks over the last 2 games and that does
not bode well for injury prone QB Chris Chandler. The Philadelphia pass
defense has yielded just an average of 151 yards per game over the last
2 weeks. They took a New Orleans team that was playing well and held them
in check and I’m thinking it spells bad news for a Falcon team with RB
Jamal Anderson struggling. WRs Terance Mathis and Shawn Jefferson will
likely struggle against the solid cornerbacks Philadelphia brings. TE
Reggie Kelly had a huge game Sunday with 4 receptions and 83 yards. I
don’t think he’ll repeat those numbers against the Eagles though.
Seattle Passing Game vs Chief Defense QB Jon Kitna’s playing well
enough to keep his NFL job but he’s probably not winning many Fantasy
Football games for GMs. Over the last 2 games, he’s only totaled 389 yards
and 2 TDs. Peyton Manning had that by the 3rd quarter of the Jacksonville
game… The Chiefs will likely be able to take him out of any rhythm this
week and force him to make mistakes. I said last week that WR Darrell
Jackson may be the best WR on the team and it appears he’s there. He only
had 1 catch Sunday but it was a 68 yard TD. With that kind of explosiveness,
it’s tough to sit a guy as all he needs is a catch or two. WR Sean Dawkins
hasn’t done much on the other side and I don’t see much this week. TE
Itula Mili has done a nice job lately and seems to be making the most
of his chances.
Rushing Game Matchups:
Here's how I see the matchups this
week. Please note, see the cheatsheet for exactly where I rank
players. Just because one matchup may be more favorable than another,
that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup.
The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box when it
comes to deciding between players.
-LOCKS: These games heavily favor the Offense.
Tshimanga Biakabutuka (Car) vs Dallas Defense
There have been two games this season where RBs rushed for over 200 yards—Philadelphia’s
Duce Staley in week 1 and San Francisco’s Charlie Garner last week. Both
against the Cowboys. That hasn’t happened to any team since 1973. Obviously,
Dallas struggles defending cutback style RBs with quickness. Biakabutuka
falls right in that mold. Plus, with QB Steve Beuerlein, Biakabutuka brings
with him a passing game that will create even more problems for the Dallas
safeties in run support. He should run wild.
Charlie Garner / Fred Beasley (SF) vs Arizona Defense We saw last week what Garner can do. He hit the hole with explosiveness
and fought hard after contact. I’m dying for my buddies over at STATS
Inc. to come up with a special breakdown for Garner’s numbers: Before
and After the shirt gets untucked. Once it’s out, he’s hard to handle.
The Cardinal defense is easy and Garner should go crazy again. Of special
note is the opportunities FB Fred Beasley may get catching the ball with
WR Terrell Owens “excused” from the game. Beasley didn’t do much last
week but through the first 3 games he tallied 128 yards on 10 catches
and 3 TDs.
Jamal Lewis / Obafemi Ayanbadejo (Bal) vs Cleveland Defense
Jamal Lewis burst onto the scene with his first full NFL game last week
against the Bengals. I’ve not been a big fan of Lewis but I have to give
the man his props. He ran hard and with power. Granted it was the Bengals
but I doubt your league cares who he’s rushing against. He has another
creampuff defense this week in the Browns who’re returning to their old
form on defense. If you’ve been following my columns, you know I’m high
on Ayanbadejo. He’s one of those no name (or difficult name) guys who
can rack up some points when your other owners aren’t looking. Don’t start
him over an established starter, but he could do well again this week.
Robert Smith (Min) vs Detroit Defense
It’s been great to see Robert Smith used like a “real” RB rushing between
the tackles and staying in the game near the goalline. He’s responded
exceptionally well. With a week to prepare for Detroit, I look for Smith
to excel against a Lion defense that’s struggled defending the run. Detroit
has allowed an average of 133 yards per game over the last 2 games. If
you’re into the historical slant, Smith has rushed for more yards and
more 100 yard games against the Lions than he has against any other NFL
team. His speed is cartoon scary when he breaks through the line and I
bet he does it more than once Sunday.
Lamar Smith (Mia) vs Cincinnati Defense One of the reasons I’m down on the Miami passing game is I’m high
on Lamar Smith this week. If you saw the game last week, you know he had
a 40+ yard run called back for a penalty. Even without those 40 yards,
he ranks in the top 10 over the last 2 weeks in most performance / TD
systems. Coach Dave Wannstedt will grind the ball and won’t let QB Jay
Fiedler beat them with self inflicted mistakes. The Bengal Defense proved
last week they have trouble tackling.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
Terrell Davis / Mike Anderson (Den) vs New England Defense The Patriots have had trouble stopping the run giving up 126 yards
per game on the ground over the last 2 games. Terrell Davis is chomping
at the bit to prove he’s back while we know what Mike Anderson can do
filling in. Whichever back that gets the call should run well. I’d think
with Brian Griese’s shoulder, they’ll be looking to take a bit of heat
off the QB by establishing the ground game early and staying with it.
As of Thursday, it looks like Davis will get the start but stay tuned
as we’ve been down this road before…
Dorsey Levens / Ahman Green (GB) vs Chicago Defense The Packers seemingly like the change of pace Green gives with his
speed. While not a “Thunder and Lightning” package like the Giants run
with Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber, the shifty Green is a nice complement
to Levens who they realize needs to be treated carefully with his knee.
As long as Green can hold onto the football, look for this rotation to
continue. The Bears Defense has been surprisingly soft against the run
lately. With Favre beginning to look a little like the Favre of old, the
safeties won’t be able to creep up and support the run as well.
Marshall Faulk (Stl) vs San Diego Defense Seems weird to see the Charger defense falter but against the rush
over the last 2 weeks, San Diego ranks 21st in the league. Things won’t
get any easier for them this week as they face the explosive Rams. The
Chargers have given up more than 112 yards per game over the last 2 weeks
which is a lot for them. Much of the blame can be laid at the feet of
the offense which simply hasn’t done anything to keep the Charger Defense
off the field. Unless you think QB Jim Harbaugh is the answer, I doubt
that’ll change this week.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either way.
Thomas Jones / Michael Pittman (Arz) vs San Francisco Defense The 49er defense has been vulnerable against the run but they seemed
to turn things around last week holding Emmitt Smith in check. Neither
Thomas Jones nor Michael Pittman are in the Emmitt Smith class yet and
the Cardinal OL is certainly no match for the Dallas unit. With that said,
I think Arizona may struggle to rush the ball even though San Francisco
will likely show up in the year long rankings as a weak rush defense.
Just another reason why I like the 2 game look vs the season long view.
It’s a quick game and trends develop and fade before you know it.
Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne (NYG) vs Tennessee Defense This one is interesting as Tiki Barber is the hot back but Ron Dayne
may be more successful with his running style against this defense. The
Titans feature a quick and athletic defense that’s more suited to stopping
a slashing type RB like Barber. Against Pittsburgh’s bruising Jerome Bettis
last week, they had a tough go of it. Certainly, Dayne is more “Bettis-like”
than Barber and you’d think he may get the call here. Dayne needs a good
game or I’m really going to be worried. His 5 carries last week against
the Redskins are alarming. Offensive Coordinator Sean Payton showed that
when the Giants are trailing, it’s Tiki’s show. New York is good but don’t
look for them to blow everyone out so they can hand off to Dayne in the
4th quarter. Dayne needs to prove he can move the chains on a regular
basis, something I’ve not seen him do enough yet.
Mike Alstott / Warrick Dunn vs Washington Defense
Look for Alstott to try to put the fumble behind him that opened the door
for the Jets to win the game last week. I remember thinking to myself
why in the world would the Bucs let butter fingered (6 fumbles last year)
Mike Alstott handle the ball late in the game. And we know how that turned
out… The Redskins have been vulnerable to the rush in recent weeks allowing
123 yards per game over the last 2 weeks. It’s only week 5, but this is
a huge game for both teams. I’d expect you’ll see Alstott bounce back
in a big way. WRs Reidel Anthony and Jacquez Green are both probable with
hamstring injuries. If they’re less than 100%, look for Tampa Bay to lean
on the RBs even more than usual.
Emmitt Smith (Dal) vs Carolina Defense Carolina gave up 108 yards to Jamal Anderson and the Falcons in their last
game. It’ll be interesting to see how Emmitt Smith and his team responds
after the embarrassing loss to San Francisco last week. Defensive Linemen
Chuck Smith is out with a bad knee and Sean Gilbert is nursing a groin
injury but the line is still pretty tough. The problem for Emmitt is the
Cowboys seem to wind up trailing in games quickly and they abandon the
ground game. This could easily happen again this week vs an explosive
Carolina unit.
James Stewart (Det) vs Minnesota Defense Stewart showed some signs of life last week scoring on a phantom
TD that the refs badly missed. He should be able to continue his progress
against a Viking unit that’s pretty average stopping the run. NT Tony
Williams is questionable with a bad groin so that might help. The Lions
are right on the verge of being a good team if they can get solid QB play
from Batch and find their rushing game.
Jamal Anderson (Atl) vs Philadelphia Defense
Anderson left last week’s game with what looked to be a scary knee tweak
but he appears to be ready to go. The Eagles are tougher vs the pass than
they are against the run although they’re certainly no pushover on the
ground. This is a defense that’s only allowed 13 points in the last 2
games. They’ve sacked the QB 10 times in the last 2 weeks so look for
the Falcons to try to establish Anderson and the rushing attack to take
some heat off of QB Chris Chandler.
Jonathon Linton / Shawn Bryson vs Indianapolis Defense Jonathon Linton gets the start going from the #3 RB to the starter.
Antowain Smith goes from starter to #3. Welcome to the Wade Phillips roster
shuffle. The Bills would reportedly like to establish a clear cut #1 RB
and get away from the committee approach. Linton will get his shot and
Jacksonville showed in the Monday night game that the Colts can be run
on. But much like the Rams, Indianapolis often takes a team out of the
running game if they can jump to a lead early.
Ricky Watters / Shaun Alexander vs Kansas City Defense The Chiefs
have a solid rush defense ranking 13th overall in the last 2 weeks, but
Seattle has been effective rushing the ball. With QB Jon Kitna’s troubles
and the demise of Derrick Mayes, the Seahawks have become much more focused
on rushing the ball, and limiting mistakes. In a league where the unexpected
is expected, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Seattle steal one at Arrowhead
but if they do it, it’ll be on Watters’ shoulders.
Frank Moreau / Tony Richardson (KC) vs Seattle Defense
The Chief Rushing game is tough to predict especially with QB Elvis Grbac
having success passing the ball. Seattle has been somewhat effective in
stopping the run but the Chiefs are always tough at home.
Edgerrin James (Ind) vs Buffalo Defense The Bills bring a solid defense to this game but they’ll be facing
one of the best RBs in the game with Edgerrin James. The Bills only allowed
91 yards rushing in their last game against the Jets so it’s not like
they haven’t limited good backs already this season. Just not as good
as James. Of course you have to start him regardless of the matchup.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
Jermaine Fazande / Terrell Fletcher (SD) vs St. Louis Defense Fazande
managed 36 yards on 11 carries vs Seattle last week while Fletcher tallied
40 yards on 5 carries. Looks like they’ll continue to work in tandem although
I have to wonder if it’ll matter. Not only are the Rams improving on their
Rush defense, the St. Louis offense quickly takes the opposing running
game out of the picture and forces them to play catch-up. Add QB Jim Harbaugh
to the equation and I’m not liking this for the Charger RBs.
Duce Staley (Phi) vs Atlanta Defense
You couldn’t find a seat on the Duce Staley Bandwagon after the week 1
explosion. Plenty of room now though. Staley’s still a quality back, but
he’ll face a tough Defense in Atlanta this week. The Falcons have only
given up an average of 67 rushing yards per game over the last 2 weeks.
He’s still a starter in most every league, but he’s got his work cut out
for him this week.
Fred Taylor (Jac) vs Pittsburgh Defense I have Taylor rated pretty
highly this week even though he does have a tough matchup in a Steeler
Defense that’s been tough against the rush. Taylor looked very good Monday
night with the knee brace and could have had 100 yards if he’d stayed
in the game. Taylor reportedly felt fine after the game so look for him
to be effective again this week. Although, it’s a tough matchup for the
Jags. Pittsburgh is awful in defending the pass but they’ve been very
good against the run.
Eddie George (Ten) vs New York Giants Defense Another highly ranked
player that’ll have his work cut out for him. The Giants rank #6 in rushing
yards allowed for the last 2 games so it’s a solid unit. With QB Steve
McNair likely returning from a bruised sternum, look for the Titans to
feed George often to free up the passing game. The Giants held Washington
RB Stephen Davis to 89 yards on 30 carries last week and Davis has a similar
power style to George. He’s a clear starter even with the tough matchup.
Jerome Bettis (Pit) vs Jacksonville Defense Bettis continues to
be the lone bright spot on a Steeler team that’s struggled but he’ll have
his work cut out for him against a Jaguar team that’s strong against the
rush.
Kevin Faulk (NE) vs Denver Defense
Kevin Faulk is coming off a discouraging game in which he only rushed
for 46 yards on 21 carries and most importantly, had a crucial fumble
that was lost. Things won’t get any easier this week against a Denver
Defense smarting from a loss to Kansas City. The Patriot OL has been unable
to protect QB Drew Bledsoe or open sizable holes for Faulk and I think
those troubles will continue against the Broncos.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Errict Rhett (Cle) vs Baltimore Defense Rhett ran his mouth most
of the summer talking about how much better the Cleveland organization
was than the hated Baltimore team he came from. This may have endeared
him to the fans in July but it’s nearly October now and all folks care
about are Wins and Losses. The Baltimore Defense is awesome and I don’t
see any way Rhett does much of anything besides talk this week. I’d avoid
just about all the Cleveland players if you have viable alternatives.
James Allen (Chi) vs Green Bay Defense
I’m a James Allen fan and you know we called for him to take over the
featured back slot for a while before coach Dick Jauron finally listened
to us… But I’m shying away from this week’s matchup against the Packers
who’ve been very good defending the run of late. Allen will have plenty
of good games in front of him, I’m just not looking for this to be one.
Stephen Davis (Was) vs Tampa Bay Davis
was held to 3 yards per carry against a tough Giant Defense and things
get even harder against the Bucs this week. Tampa Bay rates #3 against
the rush over the last 2 weeks and you know they’re looking for redemption
after the Jets game. Davis is still a starter, but I do not like his matchup
this week.
Corey Dillon (Cin) vs Miami Defense
Dillon has to be one of the biggest disappointments for Fantasy Owners
this season as he’s been totally ineffective. With QB Akili Smith’s troubles,
teams are simply loading the line and putting the clamps on Dillon. This
will not change against an excellent Miami Defense Sunday.
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