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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — August 11, 2009 @ 1:41 am
The Cowboys gave up a boatload of draft picks to obtain Roy Williams from the Lions last year in the hopes he would provide an explosive second option at the position opposite Terrell Owens. The move didn’t have the intended results as Williams bombed with just 19 receptions for 198 yards and a score in ten games in Dallas. Although Williams had to learn the playbook in a short period of time, his marginal production was still surprising.
With Owens released and now in Buffalo, Williams moves into the lead receiver position in Dallas and the team is counting on him to produce. With a solid stable of skill position players and an aging but still effective offensive line, the Cowboys figure to be a top ten offense in 2009. For fantasy purposes, the issue is whether Williams will be worth a relatively high draft pick that it will cost to get him.
 Roy Williams |
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 Roy Williams |
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At 6’3″, 220 pounds and possessing good speed, Williams certainly looks the part of superstar receiver and potential fantasy stud. However, the bottom line is that he has one 1,000 yard season in five years in the league. On average, he has produced 56 receptions for 816 yards and six TD which makes him a decent low end second receiver for fantasy purposes. Now that he’s in Dallas, the Williams bandwagon is expanding but he certainly seems like a risky option where he is being drafted. With tight end Jason Witten expected to be the Cowboys top receiving threat and also an excellent red zone option, it remains to be seen how Williams will react to playing second fiddle. In addition, the team has received solid production from Patrick Crayton, they are high on young wideouts Miles Austin and Sam Hurd and will rely heavily on the running back trio of Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.
While Williams certainly has the talent and supporting cast to produce a solid season, there are more reliable options where his current draft position is. If he falls in your league, he’s worth taking a gamble on but don’t reach for Williams. ~ Dave
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Roy Williams never reached his potential in Detroit, partly because of his attitude and partly because of the abominable team he was playing on during those years. The move to Dallas in 2008 was widely considered to be a rebirth for Williams as he would be playing on a good team in a high powered offense. Looking back we know that the transition didn’t pan out the way Williams owners would have hoped, but that doesn’t mean it is time to give up on him. Williams still has all of the characteristics that made him a high draft choice and now has a full year in the Dallas offense under his belt.
Looking at the situation in Dallas, Williams is really only competing with Jason Witten for catches in the passing game. Also-rans like Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are no threat to Williams, and Dallas will want to prove the investment in Williams and jettison of Owens was a positive move by the franchise. Naturally, the talented backfield will pick up a large portion of the offensive touches, but an effective running game will open up and ease the passing game. It might be just a gut feeling, but I think OC Jason Garrett will use the space created in the running game and the attention paid to Jason Witten to create openings for Roy Williams on the outside and in the deep zone.
Williams has the opportunity to land amongst the top 10 WR when all is said and done. Don’t pay that much for him, and you shouldn’t have to unless you reside in Dallas, but if you can get him as a late drafted WR2 or even WR3, you could be sitting on a difference maker for your fantasy squad. ~ Andy
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By: Dave Stringer — August 6, 2009 @ 1:27 am
The Raiders have one of the most interesting backfields in the league for fantasy football purposes. Talented young running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush share the workload with productive veteran Justin Fargas. In addition, the trio’s production hinges on solid play from 3rd year quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who has struggled during his first two years in the league. While the Raiders managed just five wins in 2008, in large part due to their struggle to score points, the offense played well over the final three games with Russell tossing six touchdowns against just two interceptions. We’ll find out in 2009 whether that was a trend or an aberration.
 Darren McFadden |
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 Michael Bush |
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Oakland has been a mess for years and there isn’t much to indicate that 2009 will be a turnaround year. One saving grace is that they play in the AFC West, likely the worst division in the league this year. Another is the team’s talented running backs. Look for the Raiders to increase Darren McFadden’s role, for Bush to assume the short yardage and 4th quarter work (not that they will have many leads to protect) and for Fargas to play a limited role, provided the team is willing to pay a high salary to a third string player. However, it all starts with McFadden and his big play ability. As a rookie, he managed 9.9 points per game in the ten games he was clearly healthy despite playing for an offense that ranked 29th in total yards. Predicting a breakout is difficult given the lack of talent on offense but he should be a decent option as a low end second running back with upside. Bush is also intriguing and played well when given an opportunity last year. If McFadden goes down, Bush has the ability to produce given his powerful running style and decent hands out of the backfield. The major issue with both players is that Oakland will struggle to finish in the middle of the pack on offense given the team’s dire situation at receiver and questionable offensive line talent. McFadden is a player to target but not worth reaching for and Bush is a solid option to stash at the end of your fantasy bench. ~ Dave
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The path to fantasy success invariably includes a flier or late round gem that contributes more than expected. With that in mind, Michael Bush is an excellent player to target this year. McFadden appears to be headed for Reggie Bush-ville as a former high draft pick relegated to role player status, in large part due to his inability to stay healthy. The word on McFadden is that he is soft between the tackles and is not developing at the rate that Al “The Sea Monster” Davis had hoped. Meanwhile, Bush has all the tools to be a feature back and has been flying under the radar since his catastrophic college knee injury. Limited carries have allowed Bush to ease back into the regular pounding experienced by an NFL running back and he appears to be healthy heading into 2010. I see Bush having one or two very good years, maybe even three. The trick is to figure out when they are going to come. We might see a Michael Turner scenario where Bush needs to leave Oakland to find extended carries elsewhere, but it is worth gambling on him having a 240+ touch season in Oakland this year. Given the ADP of either back, Bush is not a huge risk but the reward could be enormous. ~ Andy
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By: Dave Stringer — August 5, 2009 @ 7:55 am
This faceoff turns our attention to controversial wide receivers Terrell Owens of the Bills and Brandon Marshall of the Broncos. Owens enters his first year and perhaps only year in Buffalo while Marshall tries to remain productive in Denver without quarterback Jay Cutler. Owens is on a one-year contract and Marshall has requested a contract extension as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, but he has been rebuffed by Broncos management. With each player playing for a new contract, they will have plenty of motivation to perform in 2009.
Will Terrell Owens boom or bust in Buffalo?
 Terrell Owens |
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 Terrell Owens |
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Owens is still a talented receiver, despite his advancing age, so predicting a bust year would be foolhardy. However, moving to cold weather Buffalo and going from Tony Romo and Dallas’ high octane offense to Trent Edwards and the Bills sleep inducing offensive philosophy certainly kills any chance Owens will hit the top ten in terms of fantasy production. Last year, Owens’ average points per game dropped from 15.0 to 10.3, his average yards per catch dropped from 16.7 to 15.2 and his TDs plummeted from 15 to 10. He managed to haul in less than 50% of his targets and 40% of his fantasy production came in three games. The signs of decline are obvious and the defensive secondaries in the AFC East are superior to those in the NFC West. And, of course, there is always a risk factor when it comes to the volatile Owens. All that being said, Owens should still top 1,000 yards but not by much and score 6-8 TDs. At this point, he’s a solid second receiver for fantasy purposes but he doesn’t have the upside some other second receivers have. ~ Dave
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On pure talent alone, Owens is one of the most gifted players of his generation. Unfortunately that talent comes with a big helping of attitude and arrogance and Owens no longer consistently displays that talent. As Owens gets comfortable in Western New York, there is an increasing groundswell for a bust year in the fantasy community. The argument centers on Owens’ age (36), his quarterback and his propensity to drop balls. I’m not buying. Owens always brings it when he has something to prove, particularly in his first year with a team, and now that he’s relegated to a one-year deal in an NFL backwater, expect a vintage Owens season – 85 catches, 1,300 yards, 12 TDs, 4 memorable end zone celebrations and one first-class ticket out of town. While your fellow owners are concentrating on Owens’ bad attitude and age, snag him and get production just below what the big four receivers (Fitzgerald, Moss, Johnson and Johnson) figure to produce in 2009. ~ Andy
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Should Brandon Marshall be ranked as a top ten receiver?
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Marshall is clearly an enigma and fantasy loser in the Broncos decision to trade Jay Cutler for a package that included Kyle Orton. However, he is an extremely talented young receiver just coming into his own and has spent time this offseason training with Larry Fitzgerald. If even a little of Fitzgerald’s professionalism wears off on Marshall, the Broncos will be better for it. New coach Josh McDaniels’ offensive system focuses on the wide receiver position and Marshall figures to assume the Randy Moss role with Eddie Royal attempting to duplicate the efforts of Wes Welker. While Orton isn’t the risk taker Cutler is, he is a solid quarterback who has never had anything resembling the talent the Broncos have at receiver and his production was restricted by the Bears conservative offensive approach. Look for him to open it up more in Denver and for Marshall to land in the top ten. ~ Dave
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If your fantasy pool awards points for potential or athleticism, then by all means Marshall is in the top 10. If you follow the usual practice of rewarding actual production, then it is time to bump Marshall down to the 12-15 or lower range. With Marshall already in coach McDaniels’ doghouse and Orton’s spaghetti arm replacing Cutler at quarterback, expect a significant drop off in the big receiver’s production. Marshall is also publicly demanding a trade, a distraction that could either detract from his on-field performance or result in a holdout or suspension. With a very deep pool of experienced wideouts available, take a look at Marques Colston, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe and Anquan Boldin ahead of Marshall. ~ Andy
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