We don't have to wait for Wednesday on the biggest waiver story
this week. De'Von
Achane tore the ACL in his right knee Sunday and is done for
the season.
That opens an entire backfield in September. Ollie Gordon II
handled the job after Achane went down, but Jaylen Wright was
inactive and entered the season ahead of Gordon on the depth chart.
I'm interested in both. I'm just willing to pay a lot more for
one.
The rest of this week's free agent board is less exciting, which
makes it even more important not to turn every good Sunday into
a FAAB event.
The $200 FAAB Tracker
We've tried to preserve enough of the original $200 budget to
attack a real role change when one appears. This qualifies.
If you've followed the general approach and won one meaningful
player over the first couple of waiver runs, you should still
have enough flexibility to make a serious Gordon bid without emptying
the account.
That's what I'm willing to do this week.
I'm not trying to win Gordon, Kenyon Sadiq, Braelon Allen and
Wright together. Pick the role your roster actually needs and
spend accordingly.
Priority Adds
RB Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins
Suggested FAAB: $48-$56
Achane played four snaps before the knee injury. Gordon played
61 the rest of the way.
He finished with 17 carries for 41 yards and a touchdown while
catching all three of his targets for 14 yards. The 2.4 yards
per carry aren't selling me here. Twenty touches are.
The reason I'm stopping in the mid-50s instead of emptying the
account is Jaylen Wright.
Wright was inactive Sunday with a stinger and foot injury. He
opened the season ahead of Gordon, although Gordon had started
gaining ground after Wright was injured in Week 2. Miami also
has Jarquez Hunter on the practice squad, so this isn't guaranteed
to become a one-man backfield.
Gordon gets the first shot because he just handled the workload
and scored at the goal line.
More importantly, this isn't a one-week injury replacement anymore.
Achane's season is over. That's the kind of job I'm willing to
pay for.
TE Kenyon Sadiq, Jets
Suggested FAAB: $18-$26
Sadiq's seven catches for 105 yards and a touchdown are going
to make this look like an easy call.
The eight targets are encouraging but the route participation
gives me some pause.
Sadiq ran a route on only 58.1% of Jets pass plays while Mason Taylor was out, and New York still used a three-man tight end
rotation. He made the limited role count, drawing a target on
nearly one-third of his routes.
That's impressive but it also isn't a locked TE1 workload yet.
The bet is that Sunday earned him more of the offense.
If Taylor remains out or Sadiq's routes climb, there is room
for this to become one of the more useful tight end adds we've
had this season. If Taylor and Adonai Mitchell return and the
rotation stays intact, seven catches will be difficult to repeat.
I'll go $18-$26 if tight end is a real need. I'm paying for the
chance that the job grows, not for last week's touchdown.
RB Jaylen Wright, Dolphins
Suggested FAAB: $10-$16
Wright didn't play Sunday and that's also why he may be considerably
cheaper than Gordon.
Miami entered the season with Wright ahead of Gordon, and the
two have traded the backup role over the last year. Gordon had
started moving ahead after Wright's injury, then became the only
available halfback once Achane went down against Kansas City.
Now there are season-long touches available. If Wright returns
to full practice this week, I want him rostered before we find
out whether Miami views Gordon as the new feature back or half
of a committee.
Gordon is clearly the better claim today but Wright is the cheaper
bet that the job isn't settled.
RB Braelon
Allen, Jets
Suggested FAAB: $10-$16
Breece Hall's MRI came back better than initially feared.
He's considered week-to-week with the quad injury and isn't headed
to injured reserve. That makes Allen more short-term rental than
season-long takeover.
If Hall misses Week 4 against Chicago, Allen should get the first
shot at the lead rushing work while Isaiah Davis mixes in behind
him.
That's useful, especially if you need an immediate start but it's
not worth the $25-plus bid I would have considered if Hall were
facing a longer absence.
I'm staying at $10-$16.
Also Worth a Bid
WR Keenan Allen, Colts
Suggested FAAB: $8-$12 if available
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve, and Allen responded with six
catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on nine targets Sunday.
Josh Downs and Tyler Warren remain significant parts of the offense,
so I'm not expecting Allen to suddenly dominate targets.
Nine looks with Pierce gone are enough to give him weekly Flex
value, especially in PPR formats. Roster percentages vary considerably
by platform, so check your league before assuming he's unavailable.
QB Jalon Daniels, Buccaneers
Suggested FAAB: $6-$12 in Superflex
Baker Mayfield will miss at least three weeks with the dislocated
thumb on his throwing hand, and Tampa has named Daniels the starter
beginning in Week 4.
Daniels is more interesting than the usual emergency rookie.
He entered camp near the bottom of Tampa's quarterback room and
played his way past Jake Browning. In the preseason he completed
27 of 44 passes for 239 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions,
added 37 rushing yards and another score, and directed the drives
that produced 30 of Tampa Bay's 33 offensive points.
Todd Bowles repeatedly praised his poise and progress.
I'm still not recommending an undrafted rookie as a normal one-QB
starter after he went 0-for-3 with an interception in relief Sunday
but Superflex is different. Multiple starts plus some rushing
abilities are worth $6-$12.
The bigger fantasy adjustment is lowering expectations for Tampa's
receivers while Mayfield is out. Emeka Egbuka stays rostered.
Chris Godwin's margin gets much thinner if the targets remain
scarce.
WR Tre Harris, Chargers
Suggested FAAB: $6-$10
Harris has led the Chargers in receiving yards in consecutive
games. He caught six of seven targets for 76 yards against Buffalo,
giving him 149 receiving yards through three weeks.
The interesting part is that the role still isn't maxed out.
Harris ran 27 routes on 43 dropbacks Sunday, leaving room for
the playing time to catch up with the production.
That's the kind of receiver I want to add before the route share
reaches every-down territory.
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints
Suggested FAAB: $6-$12
Travis Etienne has already been ruled out for Week 4 after aggravating
his hamstring, and New Orleans expects him to miss time.
Kamara won't automatically absorb the entire backfield as Kendre Miller will get work, and C.J. Donaldson has been part of the
passing-down rotation.
Kamara is the player I'd rather roster. Miller is the cheaper
swing at $2-$6.
WR Konata
Mumpfield, Rams
Suggested FAAB: $0-$2 now; $4-$8 if Puka Nacua remains out
Mumpfield caught four of eight targets for 93 yards and a touchdown
against Denver, including a 48-yard score.
The bigger signal is that Los Angeles continued using him as
one of its primary receivers with Puka sidelined. Davante Adams
led the passing game, but Mumpfield stayed involved across personnel
groupings and earned eight targets.
This move remains completely tied to Nacua's health. Another
Puka absence makes Mumpfield immediately usable. A Puka return
sends him back toward the bench.
QB Sam Darnold, Seahawks
Suggested FAAB: $4-$8
Darnold returned and threw for a career-high 379 yards and four
touchdowns against Washington. He also attempted 45 passes and
threw two interceptions.
Seattle isn't going to choose that game script every week but
Sunday did remind us that Darnold can access a real ceiling when
the Seahawks are forced to throw.
He's a strong streaming option, not somebody I'm spending meaningful
FAAB to lock onto my roster in a one-QB league.
Cheap and Deep: Mack
Hollins is a useful $2-$6 add after six catches for 87 yards
and a full-time role in New England's offense.
Elic Ayomanor
and Chris Bell
remain $0-$3 deeper-league bets based more on increased playing
time than box-score production.
Panic Meter
TE Oronde Gadsden, Chargers
Panic Level: Low
Zero catches on three targets looks terrible but the role didn't.
Gadsden played 25 of the Chargers' 30 snaps from 11 personnel
and ran a route on 73.7% of Justin Herbert's pass plays. That's
a meaningful jump from where he started the season.
David Njoku is on injured reserve, and Charlie Kolar remains
out. This was the window we wanted Gadsden to earn more receiving
work, and the routes showed up Sunday even though the catches
didn't.
I'm not spending more on him but I'm definitely not dropping
him because three targets didn't connect. Give the role another
week.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
Panic Level: High
This is a job problem now. Thomas played under 40% of Jacksonville's
offensive snaps for the second time in three weeks.
He didn't play a single snap in 12 personnel Sunday. Parker Washington
played 87.5% of those snaps, and rookie Josh Cameron has started
taking work ahead of Thomas in heavier formations while also cutting
into 11 personnel.
Thomas still has too much talent to drop but I also can't keep
treating draft capital and last year's production like they guarantee
this year's playing time.
He's coming out of my automatic-start tier until Jacksonville
puts him back on the field consistently.
TE Dalton Schultz, Texans
Panic Level: Medium
We were aggressive on Schultz last week after 12 catches for
140 yards.
The Week 3 follow-up exposed the risk. Houston went from 60 plays
in 11 personnel in Week 2 to only 28 Sunday. The Texans ran 26
plays from 12 or 13 personnel, and Foster Moreau's involvement
pushed Schultz's route participation to its lowest point of the
season.
That doesn't erase the target earning we've already seen but
it does make the Week 2 explosion look much less like a permanent
role change.
I'm holding Schultz but I'm back to treating him as a streamer
instead of assuming he's an every-week TE1.
Waiver Futures
Not every roster decision needs to happen Tuesday morning. These
are situations where the next week or two could change who belongs
on your bench.
Ravens WRs
Rashod Bateman's waiver window was tied to Zay Flowers' hamstring.
Flowers returned in Week 3 for 21 snaps while Bateman played
56 as Baltimore eased its WR1 back into the offense.
Once Flowers is practicing fully and returns to his normal workload,
Bateman becomes an easy cut in 10-team leagues unless the targets
give us a new reason to care. Don't keep paying for the injury-created
version of the role after the injury disappears.
Commanders QB
Marcus Mariota's
expiration date may arrive sooner than expected. Jayden
Daniels will travel with Washington to London and practice
in some capacity this week.
The Commanders haven't said he'll definitely play against Indianapolis,
but they haven't ruled it out either.
Mariota remains useful while Daniels is unavailable. The moment
Daniels is cleared to start, Mariota becomes an easy one-QB drop.
Monday Night Waiver Watch: What We Learned
QB Case
Keenum, Bears
Suggested FAAB: $4-$8 in Superflex if named the Week 4 starter
Kill the Tyson
Bagent bid for now. Bagent cleared concussion protocol and
dressed as the backup Monday, but Keenum handled the preparation
week and got the start.
Then he completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns
while adding a one-yard rushing score in Chicago's 27-7 win.
Ben Johnson still hasn't named his Week 4 quarterback. He specifically
pointed out after the game that there was a reason Bagent finished
camp as the No. 2.
That keeps this conditional.
If Keenum gets another start against the Jets, he's the $4-$8
Superflex stream. If Chicago goes back to Bagent, don't chase
Monday's box score.
Neither belongs on a normal one-QB waiver list.
WR Dontayvion
Wicks, Eagles
Wicks got his routes back. With Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert
out, he played 44 of Philadelphia's 50 offensive snaps. That's
much closer to the role we saw in Week 1 after Darius Cooper cut
into his playing time.
If you already have Wicks, hold him. I'm still not paying the
aggressive number we discussed two weeks ago because one full
workload doesn't erase the earlier rotation, and Philadelphia's
pass-catchers will get healthier.
Tank Bigsby played two offensive snaps and lost a fumble. Ignore
it.
Jalen Hurts briefly left for a concussion evaluation, was cleared,
returned and finished the game. There is no Andy Dalton waiver
move unless Hurts' status changes later in the week.
TE Colston
Loveland, Bears
This was finally a step forward. Loveland caught all four targets
for 31 yards and came inches from his first touchdown.
The playing time was more important. In the first half, Rome Odunze played 32 snaps, Loveland 29, Kalif Raymond 28, D'Andre Swift 24 and Luther Burden 23. Cole Kmet was down at 16.
That's the first meaningful usage bump we've seen from Loveland
in weeks.
I'm holding him in 12-team leagues. In 10s, I still prefer Sadiq
if he's sitting there, but Monday gave me a reason not to cut
Loveland simply out of frustration.
How I'm Spending
There is only one backfield that just lost its starter for the
season so Ollie Gordon II is the player I'm attacking.
I'll go as high as $56 because Achane's season
is over and we're bidding on a job that can matter for months.
Sadiq is my next meaningful bid at $26
if I need a tight end.
Wright is the cheaper Miami bet at $10-$16.
Allen is also $10-$16, but I'm
treating him as a short-term Week 4 play rather than a season-long
acquisition.
After that, I'm mostly staying in the single digits unless I'm
playing Superflex and need Daniels.
There are plenty of players to add this week but there is only
one backfield that just lost its starter for the season.
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