What is the methodology involved? Yet again, Doug Drinen's www.pro-football-reference.com statistics and The Gut Check's database are the sources for this information. Here are the steps taken to derive this information.

• Calculate the total touches (carries, passing attempts, and receptions) per player by position. Yours Truly did not count passing attempts for running backs, receptions for quarterbacks, or rushing/passing attempts for wide receivers. These are too few and far between to make an impact.
  
  
• Calculate the total touchdowns by position. This may include touchdowns derived from attempts not counted (as described in the bullet points above). This may inflate the results for a small number of players but not significantly.
  
  
• Calculate the Touchdowns per Game by position.
  
  
• Calculate the Touches per Touchdown by position.

The Tds/Game and Touches/Td results have some similarities, but also illustrate some interesting differences. The best performing players for the Tds/Game statistic generally see the ball a lot while the Touches/Td truly shows how prolific these players are when measured strictly on production per opportunity. This may help us spot players on the rise.

Let's start with the top 12 quarterbacks in touchdowns per game for last year and the past three seasons.

There are four quarterbacks that made the top 12 in 2003 that weren't on the map over this extended period: Matt Hasselbeck, Doug Flutie, Chad Pennington, and Patrick Ramsey. Flutie and Ramsay are no longer starters and don't project as such this year. Ramsay still looks like viable keeper league material, but fantasy owners will need to remain patient. But this stat shows that Hasselbeck and Pennington are clearly making a move towards the elite, and statistically speaking, may wind up displacing a perennial performer like Gannon within the next year or two.

The most interesting piece of information may be the comparison of Jeff Garcia to Donovan McNabb. Over a three-year period, Garcia was only second to Culpepper in touchdowns per game, while McNabb was a distant eighth in touchdowns per game. In 2003 alone, McNabb wasn't even in the top twelve quarterbacks.

When The Gut Check compares McNabb and Garcia's starts in 2004, Terrell Owens might have a point—as un-media-friendly as it was this summer—about Garcia's play. An "Owens'-equipped," McNabb is on par with Culpepper in every major statistical category for quarterbacks in 2004. In contrast, Garcia ranks near the bottom without Owens. Yours Truly finds this explanation a little too simplistic to stand on, but he does feel that McNabb has been underrated for several years as a quarterback because he's lacked playmakers and Garcia no longer benefits from having the quality of players that he once had as the 49ers' starter. If Lee Suggs can provide some spark upon his return, this could open things up in the passing game for Garcia—just don't expect huge numbers in 2004.

Speaking of Owens' let's look at receivers and their touchdowns per game.

Over a three-year period, Owens averaged nearly a touchdown per game—the best rate for all receivers (if one factors out players like Dameane Douglas with only six receptions during this same period). Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss aren't far behind. In fact, Moss was clearly the best of the best in 2003 with more than one touchdown per game.

Names that appear to lend some credence to the ups and downs of some teams at the start of 2004 also appear on these tables. Brandon Stokely, another player that made the most of his limited opportunities last year, is demonstrating his knack for the big play in 2004 with the Colts. Javon Walker has shown why he was rated so highly entering the 2004 season. The Titans really miss Tyrone Calico and these 2003 stats mirror how Tennessee was using him throughout the 2004 preseason before his injuries. Tennessee should have a chance to turn around their slow start once Calico returns to the fold. Keenan McCardell's holdout is among the myriad of reasons why the Bucs are off to a horrendous beginning. Roy Williams isn't on the list, but looks like's taken over the role that the Lions hoped they'd have with Charles Rogers—a player that is listed here.

Running backs touchdowns per game, like quarterbacks, is most often a reflection of the sheer number opportunities they receive in comparison to receivers and tight ends.

All-around threats top both lists (with the exception of Mungro) for running backs. It's no surprise the most consistent producers overall tend to be the most consistent scorers (Holmes, Faulk, Portis, Tomlinson, and Green).

Only Tony Gonzalez approaches a td/gm average that is comparable to a top-rated wide receiver. Unless the Chief's tight end is yours in scoring-league, it may be a waste of time to worry about a tight end.

When we look at the ratio of touches to scores, the differences can have a significant impact on the ratings of players heading into a season. Here are the ratings for quarterbacks.

In 2003, Steve McNair scored a touchdown for every 15.61 attempts, clearly better than Garcia and Culpepper. Too bad McNair couldn't stay healthy. If you had the Titans' backup though, there wasn't much of a drop off—Billy Volek averaged 1 touchdown per 16 attempts!!! Obviously the Titans' offense was clicking last year, but adding Volek is likely a smart move.

For starters, Volek was a coveted player in the off-season, which means there were enough teams that truly liked what they saw in him. Todd Bouman—Duante Culpepper's backup—put up some nice games a few years ago when the Vikings' starter went down, but he received nowhere the attention that Volek or Delhomme did in the last two years. Volek was actually starting in front of David Carr at Fresno state and had an excellent TD/INT ratio during his collegiate career. Add Volek to the list of previous under the radar types like Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, and Jake Delhomme, players that were acquired out of college with little fanfare, but proved more than capable. The Gut Check believes Volek is capable of putting up starter-quality performances in McNair's likely absence.

Jake Plummer is another surprising player on the 2003 list. If your league doesn't penalize for boneheaded plays (most don't), Plummer is an excellent value in scoring leagues. If one of those young receivers in Denver can actually turn the corner in terms of their adjustment to the NFL, look out!

But probably the one starter The Gut Check would love to have on his squads is Chad Pennington. Pennington's stats generally don't show how productive he compared to the best fantasy quarterbacks because of his injury-marred 2003 season, but this stat paints a more accurate picture. Factoring out players that started less than 10 games from 2000-2003, only Daunte Culpepper and Jeff Garcia scored more often. 2004 is shaping up to be a monster year for the Jets' quarterback.

Onterrio Smith has already proven he's a talent in relief of Michael Bennett. Its too bad Smith is awaiting suspension from the NFL. He might have had a chance to hold onto the job. The Vikings' S.O.D. averaged a touchdown every 36 touches in 2003—4th among RBs last season.

Probably the most frustrating situation had to be the Eagles' backfield of 2003. Buckhalter, Westbrook, and Duce Staley all figure prominently on the 2003 list but all cut into the others' opportunities. Staley now has to contend with Jerome Bettis, who appears on track to continue his 2003 TD/attempt rate. Although Buckhalter is out, Westbrook hasn't seen the end zone in 2004. It took three games for Westbrook to get going in 2003 and The Gut Check expects the Eagles' feature back to start crossing the goal line very soon. On the other end of the spectrum is T.J. Duckett—his ratio looks excellent, but so far he's been non-existent in the Falcons offense. This may be one of the few times Yours Truly is partially right about something this season (more on this next week).

The Gut Check decided to put more parameters on receivers and limited this list to receivers with at least 32 receptions for both a 1-year and 4-year period.

Chris Chambers is languishing in Miami. Ricky Williams' retirement started a huge collapse for a team that appeared to be very promising this spring. Chambers would be an all-pro on just about any other team. His 2003 rate of 1 TD per 5.84 receptions is especially impressive for 64 receptions. Yours Truly wouldn't be surprised if Chambers demands a trade (if he isn't a free agent at that time) after the season if Wannstedt is still the coach.

Donté Stallworth's career ratio of 1 TD per 6.09 receptions is a big reason owners drool over his prospects. Andre Davis, Justin McCareins, and David Givens also join this list of players that exhibited past scoring proficiency that owners and NFL teams alike hope to build upon in the future.

But for players with at least 100 career receptions the top five are:

1. Terrell Owens
2. Santana Moss
3. Randy Moss
4. Chris Chambers
5. Marcus Robinson

Once again, Terrell Owens appears to top this list as the best wide receiver in fantasy football in terms of overall consistency. Considering that Owens was rating anywhere between 3rd (Yours Truly among them) and 8th in FFToday's preseason staff rankings for receivers, you can bet the common perception—not just at this site, but elsewhere—that Owens ranks behind Holt, Harrison, and—in many cases—Randy Moss will likely change dramatically as we head into 2005.

Santana Moss is a pleasant surprise here. It's clear the Jets made a good move to acquire Justin McCareins—a player with a ratio sandwiched between the Santana and Randy—in order to make their offense more explosive. The Gut Check sees big things from these two as the season progresses.

As inept as Miami seems right now, the team appeared to be on the right track with acquiring David Boston as bookend to Chambers. The Gut Check just doesn't see how the Dolphins cannot go to a more wide-open attack with Chambers, Boston, and Booker if they retain all three players. Kurt Warner could be an excellent fit in Miami if he continues to play well with the Giants.

The pairing of Moss and Robinson is a terrific idea in theory. Robinson just can't stay healthy.

Tight Ends have some mixed results. Gonzalez and Franks were at the top of the list (discounting Terry Jones—a good player, but got his time in relief of Todd Heap) in 2003, but over the span of 2000-2003 Gonzalez is used so often as a receiving threat in all situations, his numbers drop significantly. Franks on the other hand has traditionally been used as a scoring threat near the goal line.

Boo Williams has always been seen as a scoring options and has grown into a popular selection for fantasy owners—which these numbers illustrate. Anthony Becht also appears to be a nice scoring league option in TE-required lineups.

All in all, nothing earth-shattering here, but the information presents a good confirmation that opportunity is the first sign that high performance should follow. Additionally, these stats may point to promising players that might get future opportunity and make solid, keeper picks in the present. Next week, The Gut Check grades his first quarter performance.