This week The Gut Check tackles the subject of consistent performers during weeks 14-16. Yours Truly queried the average fantasy points and consistency rating of players according to their position between the years of 2001-2003. The hope is to determine the following for the biggest fantasy weeks of the season:

• Historical "plays."
  
• Underrated "plays."
  
• "Plays" to avoid when possible.

By no means does The Gut Check view this as gospel, but it at least provides fantasy owners a statistical and historical resource to help with difficult lineup decisions from an angle different from that just of advantageous scheduling. If we only used scheduling as a factor Carson Palmer and T.J. Houshmanzadeh could not have been seen as good plays in recent weeks versus Baltimore, New England, or this weekend against the Bills.

Starting with Quarterbacks, here are the active signal callers and their consistency level from 2001-2003:

It's clear that the amount of games sampled in these calculations plays a large part in the analysis of the data. For instance, Billy Volek is the top player, but we only have one game to view between 2001-2003. Yet based on his performances this year, it's clear that Volek is a good find for the stretch run—as evidenced against K.C.

Historically speaking, the most consistent producers appear to be Culpepper, McNabb, Green, and McNair. This shouldn't change for Culpepper as the Vikings have a healthy Moss back in the lineup and are once again fighting off a late season collapse. McNabb could be a dicey play in week 16 if the Eagles technically wrap up home field advantage next weekend—meaning McNabb is at least a good play in week 15. Trent Green is in the spoiler role, but it's worth noting the Chiefs are still mathematically alive for a wildcard and with Holmes out, the game will be placed in Green's hands more than ever. McNair might have a nice game if he isn't shut down for the year—but with all the retirement talk and Jeff Fisher publicly stating that McNair needs an off season without a major injury—don't expect the Titan's on-field leader to return in 2004.

Jon Kitna, Drew Brees, Byron Leftwich, and Jake Delhomme are all underrated plays. Their stats don't look good, but this is where one should consider their previous or current season. All four players have improved their play during this 18-24 month period and are worthwhile options. The Gut Check likes Leftwich the most out of this group, because the match ups with Green Bay and Houston in consecutive weeks are prime for throwing the ball and Yours Truly has seen signs of life from rookie WR Reggie Williams. Williams had a statistically sound game against Chicago, but it was his play against Pittsburgh that really demonstrated he's beginning to turn the corner. The Gut Check observed a receiver that appeared more comfortable with the speed of the game and was reacting more instinctively upon his athletic ability rather than consumed in thought about his role. Look for Williams to have at least one big game down the stretch and at the very least, open things up for Leftwich.

Tom Brady and Chad Pennington are two players The Gut Check would recommend shying away from if at all possible. Both are excellent players and generally solid starts, but the statistics may have a correlation to the fact that both teams tend to have late season home games in bad weather. This year the trend continues…

A list of the more prominent RBs further illustrates that one should heavily consider the context of the player's current season performance when evaluating these stats:

Corey Dillon, Domanick Davis, Edgerrin James, and Brian Westbrook are excellent examples of players with poor historical stats during the fantasy playoffs that are performing much better in 2004. Dillon has found a team with a balanced attack, a decent defense, and a coaching staff that exploits his strengths. Davis has been banged up but finally looks healthy and is producing as such. James may wind up the shakiest start due to a schedule that includes San Diego and Baltimore, but The Gut Check believes a now-healthy James can put up big stats on any defense. Westbrook? By now, you know how Yours Truly views Westbrook—his last five games are definitely an illustration of what he can do for a fantasy team when healthy and used properly—suddenly The Gut Check isn't the only one that is talking about Westbrook as a possible elite RB of the future.

Fred Taylor is a player that historically has some nice games down the stretch although the numbers state he's more of a 50/50 shot. It's worth noting that like James and Davis, Taylor is now healthy (AFC South coincidence here?) and is running with the type of authority and quickness that looks like he could break a long one on any given play. Green Bay and Houston are excellent candidates to suffer these consequences. Add Ladanian Tomlinson to this list of early-injured-but-now-healed running backs. It's amazing to think that LT had a mid-season swoon but still consistently reached the end zone in most of his contests.

Shy away from Deuce McCallister, and Rudi Johnson at all possible. McCallister and Johnson have difficult match ups and haven't displayed a historical level of consistency. In addition, both teams are more apt to throw the ball due to their poor defensive play and developing passing games down the stretch.

Onterrio Smith should be a nice play. He's most effective indoors and he faces Detroit and Green Bay on turf. With Randy Moss proving last week that he's really back to form, defenses will be forced to take him seriously. Remember what Mewelde Moore did with Moss in the backfield? Moore is a good player, but Smith is the best runner the Vikings have. If you want a preview of the possibilities, just look at Smith's stats from last year down the stretch—especially his huge game against the Chiefs. Yeah, I know, it's the Chiefs. But the Packers and Lions are closer the Chiefs in defensive prowess than they are to the Ravens and Bills.

Wide Receivers? The big names show up at the top with greater consistency, but this is even more reason to be aware of the seasonal context and the amount of games sampled.

Although Amani Toomer has been a great historical choice, Yours Truly believes you have to consider the context of this season and make the decision to avoid him unless seriously desperate. In fact, The Gut Check might consider Ferguson over Toomer this year. Toomer has also been quietly playing with a leg injury and it's having a noticeable effect even discounting Eli's learning curve.

Hines Ward appears to be another disappointment down the stretch. Week 16's match up with the Ravens should be a game where Roethlisberger will be forced to throw to win—and Ward should be his security blanket in what will be a big game.

Tight ends, as usual, are a tough group to predict outside the top three. Gonzalez, Shockey, Pollard, and Crumpler are obvious plays. Throw in Gates and Witten within the context of this season and with the exception of Todd Heap, The Gut Check has mentioned most of the list worthy of consideration.

The Gut Check does believe Erron Kinney, L.J. Smith, and Bubba Franks could be surprisingly decent starts towards the end. Smith is getting better looks and will continue to as defenses focus more on Westbrook. Franks and Kinney are facing defenses with relatively weak linebackers and safeties—both are tight ends that are easily overlooked due to mediocre performances thus far.

Good luck to those of you still alive!