The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 92
Second Half Wonders
6/15/07

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

The two numbers after the receiver’s name are the fantasy points per game averaged from weeks 1-8 and 9-17, respectively. The % column is the percentage increase from the first half of the season to the second half. Next Yr is the average fantasy points per game for the next season. Attainment is how close did the Next Yr numbers approach the production in the second half of the previous year. The Total Sample is only an average of the players that were starters the following year and remained healthy.

The trend remains the same when including the 2005-2006 stats: a receiver that exhibits a significant jump in production during the second half of a season has a pretty high likelihood of maintaining that jump in production if they start and remain healthy during the following year. From 2003-2006 (representing “the following year,” for 2002-2005), 62% of the second-half wonder receivers that were healthy and in the starting lineup for their teams the next year attained at least 87% of their previous year’s jump in production. Seven out of thirteen receivers were over 90% attainment and three exceeded their second half improvement from the previous year—two of those three did it last year. Overall, the second half wonders generally increased their production by 54% of their first half totals. In the following year they maintained at least 86% of their fantasy points per game average.

This should clearly tell you that a second half wonder that is supposed to be a starter the next year should at least produce at 86% of that stretch run production. That’s a great indicator for success. You may not wind up with a top-15 performer but let’s see how the receivers yours truly mentioned for 2006 performed to this theory’s projected rank. With the exception of Toomer, who was lost for the season after an injury, the other three exceeded expectations:

Although only 3 of the 4 receivers produced as worthwhile starters in a 3-receiver lineup for a 12-team league, the 4th was on track to do the same prior to getting hurt. As mentioned, Williams and Brown were the higher profile, mid-round picks and Toomer and Clayton provided undervalued depth at the bottom third of fantasy drafts.

With this in mind, who are the Second Half Wonders from 2006?

There are six receivers with significantly stronger second halves in 2006 that have a decent chance to build on their production in 2007 due to their role with their respective club. Last year, the Gut Check used the average attainment percentage for the position to project the next season’s production, but this year he’s also using the average attainment for the 2006 receivers. The logic behind this is the fact that breakout players build on their numbers. If one were to strictly use this theory to pick a breakout receiver, Braylon Edwards would be the player with Mark Clayton a close second. Yours truly likes Clayton more than Edwards due to the veteran QB in Baltimore, but Edwards has proven to be a talent regardless of the signal caller tossing him the ball.

Second half wonders at running back have nearly the same probability (63%) as receivers to maintain at least 87% of that production the following year if they start and stay healthy—even higher (72%) if you only expect the runner to attain at least 80%.

Four of the eight players that attained at least 88% of their previous second half productivity average actually exceeded this total over the course of the next season—and it was often a significant increase. Heading into 2006 there were three backs that qualified as second half wonders. None were slated as the undisputed starter heading into camp. But as predicted, Frank Gore got the job and made the most of his opportunity.

Here’s what Yours Truly said about Gore last June:

The most intriguing back on this list is Gore. The Niners’ second-year runner from Miami displayed the kind of explosion as a rookie two years removed from ACL surgery that Hurricane fans and scouts did not witness during his senior season. Gore and Barlow will vie for the starting position, but one has to think Mike Nolan will favor his draft pick if their preseason performances are similar. The addition of future Hall of Fame guard Larry Allen and the return of Jonas Jennings should bolster the offensive line for the rushing attack to improve in 2006.

The player that made the greatest jump in production in the second half was none other than Reggie Bush. If you’re still skeptical of the Saints’ RB producing strictly as an RB, the Gut Check counters these totals are not for a point per reception scoring system. Bush had some big games down the stretch of 2006 and proved he was more than capable of running the ball between the tackles once he ran with more patience and discipline. If you’re still not convinced, the Gut Check isn’t going try waking you up. This is a back he’d take the risk to draft at the tail end of the first round in 2007.

DeAngelo Williams is another 2nd year runner yours truly would consider as ideally a #3 RB, but in a pinch he’d draft as his second RB. The Gut Check thought Williams was the 2nd best back in the 2006 draft class. The Panthers may not have the additions the 49ers had to their line, but a healthier unit could set up Williams for a year where he could crack the top 15 backs—not as big a jump as Frank Gore, but it still makes Williams a strong draft day value.

Maurice Jones Drew really needs no explanation. He’s a special back that should garner strong consideration as a #1 RB around the same area one might take the chance to draft Reggie Bush this year. Lump Joseph Addai with the same group. He’s now the official heir to the Edgerrin James-like production one came to expect from a back set behind Peyton Manning. Jamal Lewis will need a dynamite effort from Cleveland’s revamped line to hit these projections, but excellent line play makes anything possible. The Gut Check just wouldn’t count on it, despite the fact draftniks are comparing rookie OT Joe Thomas to Tony Boselli.

Vernand Morency is an intriguing player heading into camp. Nebraska rookie Brandon Jackson has a good chance to contribute and his talent level is on par to Morency when the incumbent starter was drafted out of Oklahoma State. But Morency has more experience with the speed of the game, the Packer’s system (although Jackson played in a west coast attack under former Raider coach Bill Callahan), and has more top end speed. Yours truly believes Morency isn’t likely to make a huge splash as a fantasy impact back, but at the round one can acquire him, he’s worth consideration.

That leaves Cedric Benson, a talented back, but one that will get pushed by none other than the diminutive Garrett Wolfe. Ron Turner already mentioned Wolfe is good enough to be considered the primary back up to Benson if he plays to expectation. What the Gut Check loved about the Northern Illinois back was his effort. As he mentioned in his 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, “Wolfe is pound-for-pound, the best back in this draft.” The issue is he doesn’t have enough poundage to match up with Lynch or Peterson. Yet, don’t be surprised if we see another Warrick Dunn-like back to make good things happen for the second time in two years.

The tight end position has a less dramatic points swing for second half wonders, but their attainment percentage for the following season is higher than receivers and backs.

Three of the five second half wonders that started the next year were nearly as good as their previous year’s stretch run, if not significantly better. Although two of these five tight ends were injured for significant portions of their follow up season, their level of production and games started were high enough to include in this sample.

Last year, the Gut Check had Cooley as the only viable Second Half Wonder at tight end.

This year, the Gut Check projected the Second Half Wonders at the average starter attainment percentage of 107.8%. The only two viable candidates are listed below:

Jerramy Stevens leaves Seattle for Tampa, but he’ll at best split time with incumbent Alex Smith. The Gut Check believes this projected amount for the UW alum is a top end number for his 2007 performance, barring an injury to Smith. On the other hand, Vernon Davis will be the unquestioned starter heading into his second season with the Niners. Davis’ projected 2007 stats place him just outside of the top 10 tight ends. The Gut Check believes Davis has a chance to produce at a much higher clip, because of his elite physical talents and the fact he missed a portion of his rookie year with injury. In contrast to Stevens, look for Davis’ projected production to be more of a starting point for this tight end with wide receiver speed and kick return man skills after the catch.

Quarterbacks have the best follow up seasons when it comes to attaining their second half numbers from the season before. As mentioned last year, once football no longer feels like practicing organic chemistry in pads, it makes sense a starting quarterback that has made the adjustment to the NFL will continue to improve. This goes for veterans changing teams—just to a lesser extent.

Last year’s second half wonders at quarterback either began the season as a back up (Kyle Boller) or soon ceded their position to a rookie (Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner). Therefore the Gut Check does not have any quarterbacks from 2006 added to the sample. Therefore the sample remains the same as last year: Exactly two-thirds of the second half wonders at QB had close to the same, or better, follow up season. Two of the quarterbacks were first-year starters, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer. Although Matt Hasselbeck and Kerry Collins didn’t reach the desired attainment percentages, their fantasy totals made them decent starters—especially Hasselbeck. In fact half of the quarterbacks exceeded their second-half numbers in the follow-up season and were averaging fantasy points that made them quality #1 fantasy starters (Johnson and Manning), if not outright studs at the position (McNabb and Palmer).

2006’s Second Half Wonders has more promise than last year strictly for the fact three of the four candidates enter the 2007 season as the unquestioned starting quarterback.

Tony Romo returns to a potent veteran lineup of skill players. The Gut Check believes the projected stats for the Cowboys’ starter is overly optimistic, but the figures should give a fantasy owner the idea that Romo is a solid choice on draft day. He’ll likely be a bit undervalued on draft day because he hasn’t demonstrated a consistent level of productivity over the course of a season.

The sexy pick will be Vince Young and he was as close to a one-man show in Tennessee as one could get from a productive quarterback. The knock on Young will be the fact he bolsters his scoring with his running skills, but this will come from detractors that view Young in a similar vein as Vick. Yours truly sees more parallels between Young and either McNabb or his mentor, McNair. The big question will come from the running game. Will Lendale White be able to pick up the where Travis Henry left off? The Gut Check has his doubts. Regardless, Young should still improve upon his 2006 campaign, but vaulting to superstar fantasy status is also a bit too optimistic given the Titans dearth of receiving talent at the time of writing this article.

David Garrard has never been a full-time starter and with Jacksonville still committed to Byron Leftwich as their quarterback, he is nothing more than a late round pick with potential value around mid-season.

The most intriguing pick might be Matt Leinart. Arizona should generate an improved running game under new coach Ken Whisenhunt, a former H-back in two offenses known for their ground attack in the 80’s: Atlanta under Dan Henning (Carolina’s current offensive coordinator) and Washington during Joe Gibbs’ heyday. Leinart has the best pair trio of receivers of the four candidates and is the best pure passer. The Cardinals starter may not become the next Peyton Manning, but the Gut Check believes he’ll be the most consistent of the four.

In conclusion, here’s what to consider with second half wonders:

• Look for players that had a season where their second half fantasy point per game average exceeded the first half by at least 40%.
  
  
• Target the players that had this increase in production and are slated to be a starter.
  
  
• If these starters remain healthy, you can reasonably expect similar, if not significantly better, production out of these players for the coming year.